RECALCULATED ENTRIES
The season looks to be 22 races long rather than the originally announced 23 races.
All entries have been scaled down accordingly and numbers have been rounded off to integers so that all entries now are precisely 2222 points and my sanity is down to precisely zero.
This means that players might have already missed points from drivers in previous races already but it hasn't been reported accordingly.
The standings after Italy:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) noikeee 1383 92 2) Makarias 1379 96 = mark f1 1379 89 4) M2000-5 1373 89 5) Grayson 1372 96 6) GTA 1362 79 7) jjcale 1361 87 8) SpaceHorseParty 1360 81 9) scheivlak 1359 65 = thegforcemaybewithyou1359 76 11) Brawn BGP 001 1358 85 12) sladealonso 1357 82 13) KWSN-DSM 1356 75 14) Bleu 1352 79 15) DutchQuicksilver 1351 76 = Marklar 1351 82 17) Anderis 1345 76 18) f1paul 1336 64The scores for this round are inaccuarate due to the entry recalculation plus I've corrected an embarrassing error that I had made previously which had given Alonso too many points and Stroll too few.
If I haven't mentioned it before, points handed out for the qualifying race are ignored just like the ones for FL.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Lati 757,9 114,3 18 Russ 644,8 218,2 18 Norr 105,2 74,2 14 Sain 104,5 75,4 12 Gasl 97,7 71,1 10 Lecl 79,9 52,5 2 Ocon 66,6 45,3 2 Vers 65,6 54,7 0 Hami 59,7 54,5 0 Bott 53,7 45,3 0 Ricc 53,7 45,1 0 Pere 50,2 43,4 0 Alon 46,8 33,1 0 Vett 39,8 29,0 0 Tsun 39,2 22,5 0 Stro 33,2 24,7 0 Räik 17,7 5,1 0 Giov 11,7 4,0 0Norris and Sainz make it past their expectation marks!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Ricciardo Norris Bottas Leclerc Perez * Potential 287 * Potential 332 * Potential 335 * Potential 306 * Potential 318 Brawn BGP 001 192 * Forecast 207 Anderis 297 GTA 201 Brawn BGP 001 271 KWSN-DSM 191 M2000-5 177 f1paul 287 * Forecast 167 noikeee 264 Marklar 184 Brawn BGP 001 157 Grayson 287 Anderis 160 f1paul 256 Makarias 173 Makarias 140 DutchQuicksilver286 Bleu 149 GTA 254 mark f1 167 Grayson 134 sladealonso 272 Makarias 141 Grayson 249 scheivlak 167 * Current 132 Marklar 270 SpaceHorseParty 139 scheivlak 249 sladealonso 166 jjcale 130 SpaceHorseParty 268 Brawn BGP 001 137 Bleu 247 M2000-5 162 noikeee 128 jjcale 262 Marklar 135 Marklar 242 f1paul 158 Marklar 126 mark f1 249 sladealonso 135 thegforcemaybewi239 GTA 158 sladealonso 126 noikeee 248 thegforcemaybewi134 M2000-5 233 Bleu 155 f1paul 125 Brawn BGP 001 241 DutchQuicksilver129 mark f1 227 DutchQuicksilver154 mark f1 124 thegforcemaybewi239 scheivlak 129 SpaceHorseParty 227 jjcale 154 DutchQuicksilver120 scheivlak 235 Grayson 124 DutchQuicksilver224 Grayson 153 SpaceHorseParty 119 Bleu 234 noikeee 124 sladealonso 222 Anderis 149 Bleu 116 KWSN-DSM 215 jjcale 121 KWSN-DSM 214 noikeee 148 GTA 114 M2000-5 213 KWSN-DSM 119 Makarias 212 SpaceHorseParty 143 Anderis 111 * Forecast 212 mark f1 115 jjcale 208 thegforcemaybewi143 scheivlak 110 GTA 210 * Current 106 Anderis 194 * Forecast 137 thegforcemaybewi105 Makarias 208 M2000-5 99 * Forecast 185 * Current 87 KWSN-DSM 96 * Current 135 f1paul 96 * Current 118More or less all numbers presented here are new. Ricciardo's win gives him a chance to beat some guesses at the end of the season despite his earlier struggles.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz Stroll Alonso Russell Ocon * Potential 298 * Potential 224 * Potential 250 * Potential 224 * Potential 248 * Forecast 154 SpaceHorseParty 96 Makarias 150 * Forecast 38 thegforcemaybewi105 GTA 129 Anderis 92 jjcale 140 * Current 24 noikeee 97 thegforcemaybewi115 DutchQuicksilver 92 thegforcemaybewi134 scheivlak 10 Bleu 91 Grayson 105 M2000-5 87 Grayson 124 noikeee 7 SpaceHorseParty 91 Makarias 102 mark f1 86 Anderis 121 Brawn BGP 001 6 M2000-5 90 M2000-5 101 jjcale 85 sladealonso 120 KWSN-DSM 6 Grayson 86 Anderis 100 Bleu 84 mark f1 110 Anderis 5 Anderis 78 * Current 98 KWSN-DSM 81 SpaceHorseParty 110 M2000-5 5 KWSN-DSM 76 Bleu 96 sladealonso 80 DutchQuicksilver107 mark f1 5 mark f1 76 KWSN-DSM 96 Makarias 75 M2000-5 107 jjcale 4 * Forecast 75 mark f1 96 GTA 62 Bleu 103 Marklar 4 DutchQuicksilver 73 noikeee 96 f1paul 59 noikeee 98 DutchQuicksilver 3 Makarias 72 SpaceHorseParty 96 thegforcemaybewi 59 KWSN-DSM 96 f1paul 3 sladealonso 65 jjcale 90 scheivlak 58 Marklar 95 Bleu 2 Marklar 62 scheivlak 86 Grayson 57 Brawn BGP 001 89 Grayson 2 scheivlak 58 f1paul 85 Marklar 57 GTA 86 sladealonso 2 jjcale 56 sladealonso 77 Brawn BGP 001 52 scheivlak 81 thegforcemaybewi 2 GTA 48 DutchQuicksilver 76 noikeee 38 * Forecast 79 Makarias 1 * Current 48 Brawn BGP 001 74 * Forecast 38 f1paul 54 GTA 0 Brawn BGP 001 41 Marklar 68 * Current 24 * Current 50 SpaceHorseParty 0 f1paul 33Sainz remains solidly in the hunt for a 100% surprise.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- M2000-5 1979,3 -80,1 noikeee 1956,3 -63,1 KWSN-DSM 1954,3 -64,9 Brawn BGP 001 1952,4 -64,8 Bleu 1952,0 -63,5 thegforcemaybewithyou1951,3 -50,1 Makarias 1950,7 -73,5 GTA 1948,4 -59,9 SpaceHorseParty 1942,3 -74,6 scheivlak 1938,9 -71,9 mark f1 1935,3 -64,9 Grayson 1924,4 -68,7 sladealonso 1912,9 -67,4 jjcale 1909,6 -70,4 DutchQuicksilver 1897,9 -55,4 Marklar 1897,4 -40,8 Anderis 1886,3 -69,8 f1paul 1842,3 -88,7The change listed is compared to the post-Netherlands forecast where one more race was still expected in the calculations. The impact from Monza actually was decent, with Ricciardo and Bottas scoring much needed points.
