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Place The Points Competition 2021 after Italy


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 13 September 2021 - 18:08

RECALCULATED ENTRIES
The season looks to be 22 races long rather than the originally announced 23 races.
All entries have been scaled down accordingly and numbers have been rounded off to integers so that all entries now are precisely 2222 points and my sanity is down to precisely zero.
This means that players might have already missed points from drivers in previous races already but it hasn't been reported accordingly.

The standings after Italy:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  noikeee              1383  92
2)  Makarias             1379  96
=   mark f1              1379  89
4)  M2000-5              1373  89
5)  Grayson              1372  96
6)  GTA                  1362  79
7)  jjcale               1361  87
8)  SpaceHorseParty      1360  81
9)  scheivlak            1359  65
=   thegforcemaybewithyou1359  76
11) Brawn BGP 001        1358  85
12) sladealonso          1357  82
13) KWSN-DSM             1356  75
14) Bleu                 1352  79
15) DutchQuicksilver     1351  76
=   Marklar              1351  82
17) Anderis              1345  76
18) f1paul               1336  64
The scores for this round are inaccuarate due to the entry recalculation plus I've corrected an embarrassing error that I had made previously which had given Alonso too many points and Stroll too few.
If I haven't mentioned it before, points handed out for the qualifying race are ignored just like the ones for FL.

The entries

The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Lati    757,9    114,3   18
Russ    644,8    218,2   18
Norr    105,2     74,2   14
Sain    104,5     75,4   12
Gasl     97,7     71,1   10
Lecl     79,9     52,5    2
Ocon     66,6     45,3    2
Vers     65,6     54,7    0
Hami     59,7     54,5    0
Bott     53,7     45,3    0
Ricc     53,7     45,1    0
Pere     50,2     43,4    0
Alon     46,8     33,1    0
Vett     39,8     29,0    0
Tsun     39,2     22,5    0
Stro     33,2     24,7    0
Räik     17,7      5,1    0
Giov     11,7      4,0    0
Norris and Sainz make it past their expectation marks!

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.


Guesses on P1-P5:
Ricciardo              Norris                 Bottas                 Leclerc                Perez               
* Potential     287    * Potential     332    * Potential     335    * Potential     306    * Potential     318
Brawn BGP 001   192    * Forecast      207    Anderis         297    GTA             201    Brawn BGP 001   271
KWSN-DSM        191    M2000-5         177    f1paul          287    * Forecast      167    noikeee         264
Marklar         184    Brawn BGP 001   157    Grayson         287    Anderis         160    f1paul          256
Makarias        173    Makarias        140    DutchQuicksilver286    Bleu            149    GTA             254
mark f1         167    Grayson         134    sladealonso     272    Makarias        141    Grayson         249
scheivlak       167    * Current       132    Marklar         270    SpaceHorseParty 139    scheivlak       249
sladealonso     166    jjcale          130    SpaceHorseParty 268    Brawn BGP 001   137    Bleu            247
M2000-5         162    noikeee         128    jjcale          262    Marklar         135    Marklar         242
f1paul          158    Marklar         126    mark f1         249    sladealonso     135    thegforcemaybewi239
GTA             158    sladealonso     126    noikeee         248    thegforcemaybewi134    M2000-5         233
Bleu            155    f1paul          125    Brawn BGP 001   241    DutchQuicksilver129    mark f1         227
DutchQuicksilver154    mark f1         124    thegforcemaybewi239    scheivlak       129    SpaceHorseParty 227
jjcale          154    DutchQuicksilver120    scheivlak       235    Grayson         124    DutchQuicksilver224
Grayson         153    SpaceHorseParty 119    Bleu            234    noikeee         124    sladealonso     222
Anderis         149    Bleu            116    KWSN-DSM        215    jjcale          121    KWSN-DSM        214
noikeee         148    GTA             114    M2000-5         213    KWSN-DSM        119    Makarias        212
SpaceHorseParty 143    Anderis         111    * Forecast      212    mark f1         115    jjcale          208
thegforcemaybewi143    scheivlak       110    GTA             210    * Current       106    Anderis         194
* Forecast      137    thegforcemaybewi105    Makarias        208    M2000-5          99    * Forecast      185
* Current        87    KWSN-DSM         96    * Current       135    f1paul           96    * Current       118
More or less all numbers presented here are new. Ricciardo's win gives him a chance to beat some guesses at the end of the season despite his earlier struggles.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz                  Stroll                 Alonso                 Russell                Ocon                
* Potential     298    * Potential     224    * Potential     250    * Potential     224    * Potential     248
* Forecast      154    SpaceHorseParty  96    Makarias        150    * Forecast       38    thegforcemaybewi105
GTA             129    Anderis          92    jjcale          140    * Current        24    noikeee          97
thegforcemaybewi115    DutchQuicksilver 92    thegforcemaybewi134    scheivlak        10    Bleu             91
Grayson         105    M2000-5          87    Grayson         124    noikeee           7    SpaceHorseParty  91
Makarias        102    mark f1          86    Anderis         121    Brawn BGP 001     6    M2000-5          90
M2000-5         101    jjcale           85    sladealonso     120    KWSN-DSM          6    Grayson          86
Anderis         100    Bleu             84    mark f1         110    Anderis           5    Anderis          78
* Current        98    KWSN-DSM         81    SpaceHorseParty 110    M2000-5           5    KWSN-DSM         76
Bleu             96    sladealonso      80    DutchQuicksilver107    mark f1           5    mark f1          76
KWSN-DSM         96    Makarias         75    M2000-5         107    jjcale            4    * Forecast       75
mark f1          96    GTA              62    Bleu            103    Marklar           4    DutchQuicksilver 73
noikeee          96    f1paul           59    noikeee          98    DutchQuicksilver  3    Makarias         72
SpaceHorseParty  96    thegforcemaybewi 59    KWSN-DSM         96    f1paul            3    sladealonso      65
jjcale           90    scheivlak        58    Marklar          95    Bleu              2    Marklar          62
scheivlak        86    Grayson          57    Brawn BGP 001    89    Grayson           2    scheivlak        58
f1paul           85    Marklar          57    GTA              86    sladealonso       2    jjcale           56
sladealonso      77    Brawn BGP 001    52    scheivlak        81    thegforcemaybewi  2    GTA              48
DutchQuicksilver 76    noikeee          38    * Forecast       79    Makarias          1    * Current        48
Brawn BGP 001    74    * Forecast       38    f1paul           54    GTA               0    Brawn BGP 001    41
Marklar          68    * Current        24    * Current        50    SpaceHorseParty   0    f1paul           33
Sainz remains solidly in the hunt for a 100% surprise.

The PTPC forecast
Name               Forecast  +/-
M2000-5              1979,3 -80,1
noikeee              1956,3 -63,1
KWSN-DSM             1954,3 -64,9
Brawn BGP 001        1952,4 -64,8
Bleu                 1952,0 -63,5
thegforcemaybewithyou1951,3 -50,1
Makarias             1950,7 -73,5
GTA                  1948,4 -59,9
SpaceHorseParty      1942,3 -74,6
scheivlak            1938,9 -71,9
mark f1              1935,3 -64,9
Grayson              1924,4 -68,7
sladealonso          1912,9 -67,4
jjcale               1909,6 -70,4
DutchQuicksilver     1897,9 -55,4
Marklar              1897,4 -40,8
Anderis              1886,3 -69,8
f1paul               1842,3 -88,7
The change listed is compared to the post-Netherlands forecast where one more race was still expected in the calculations. The impact from Monza actually was decent, with Ricciardo and Bottas scoring much needed points.

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#2 noikeee

noikeee
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Posted 14 September 2021 - 08:56

STOP THE COUNT



#3 KWSN - DSM

KWSN - DSM
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Posted 14 September 2021 - 13:20

I feel primed for a fall...