62 replies to this topic

[yolo]

It depends. It Merc don't feel he MGU will break, then they don't need to change it. Starting from the back makes win impossible in a dry race. Starting from P11, and the win is possible. If the MGUs isn't a problem, then I guess none of it matters in the end.

HAM just won once from outside the top 10 though.

[ARTGP]

HAM just won once from outside the top 10 though.

 

But look at Imola.  When the Merc is quick, there is little anybody else can do about it.   Mclaren was genuinely quick in Russia/Monza. Everybody looked like backmarkers in qualy today.

Edited by ARTGP, 09 October 2021 - 13:36.

[Goron3]

But look at Imola. When the Merc is quick, there is little anybody else can do about it. Mclaren was genuinely quick in Russia/Monza. Everybody looked like backmarkers in qualy today.

The gap between the midfield and the Mercedes wasn't huge. Lewis also doesn't get a tyre advantage tomorrow either.

[Button4life]

HAM just won once from outside the top 10 though.

Probably because he hasn't started outside of the top 10 often. He always has been in the 3rd fastest car or better.

[Anderis]

Probably because he hasn't started outside of the top 10 often. He always has been in the 3rd fastest car or better.

I counted 12 starts outside top10 during the years he had a car that was a championship conteder or was very close to being a championship contender (discounted 2009, 2011 and 2013)

[ARTGP]

I counted 12 starts outside top10 during the years he had a car that was a championship conteder or was very close to being a championship contender (discounted 2009, 2011 and 2013)

Didn’t he do Monaco one year? I wouldn’t count that. But it would make sense to also dive into not just whether it was a championship contender, but also if the car was comfortably the quickest that weekend.

Edited by ARTGP, 09 October 2021 - 16:29.

[Clatter]

I thought the rule was that penalties are applied in the order in which they are identified. That's why if you're sure you're going to need a new PU, it's best to report it to the FIA immediately.

 

I don't think reporting it to the FIA is when the offence is committed. It's when they first exit the pits with it. So anyone changing elements that incur a penalty needs to try and be first out of the pits.

[DeKnyff]

I don't understand very well the rationale behind the engine change: Turkey was supposed to be an 'easy' win for Hamilton, the most likely result would have been 1- HAM, 2-VER, this is +7 points for Lewis.

 

Instead, after the penalty, the most likely result is 1-VER, 2-HAM, assuming a team order 'Lewis is faster than you' for Bottas, so it should be -7 points for Hamilton. This is, a net result of -14 points for Lewis due to engine change.

 

Of course, it could happen that Bottas wins and then it would possibly be 2-VER, 3-HAM, with a net loss of -10 points instead of -14, but lets remember that Bottas has never finished ahead of Max this season, so it doesn't seem an easy task.

 

Wouldn't it have been wiser to get the penalty at a track where Lewis wasn't expected to win, so the most likely result would be to finish third or fourth instead of second, with a net point loss of -3 or -6 points?

 

Unless they fear to suffer reliability issues in Turkey, don't see the point in changing the engine when you are expected to win.

[ARTGP]

I don't understand very well the rationale behind the engine change: Turkey was supposed to be an 'easy' win for Hamilton, the most likely result would have been 1- HAM, 2-VER, this is +7 points for Lewis.

 

Instead, after the penalty, the most likely result is 1-VER, 2-HAM, assuming a team order 'Lewis is faster than you' for Bottas, so it should be -7 points for Hamilton. This is, a net result of -14 points for Lewis due to engine change.

 

Of course, it could happen that Bottas wins and then it would possibly be 2-VER, 3-HAM, with a net loss of -10 points instead of -14, but lets remember that Bottas has never finished ahead of Max this season, so it doesn't seem an easy task.

 

Wouldn't it have been wiser to get the penalty at a track where Lewis wasn't expected to win, so the most likely result would be to finish third or fourth instead of second, with a net point loss of -3 or -6 points?

 

Unless they fear to suffer reliability issues in Turkey, don't see the point in changing the engine when you are expected to win.

 

Your latter point. It's somewhere in the MErc technical thread, but Merc said Lewis's old engine was nearing the mileage where they were uncertain if it would suddenly expire. So Turkey was a forced change, not done for strategic reasons.  It sounds like the issue is within the ICE specifically. Not MGU-K/MGU-H. 

Edited by ARTGP, 09 October 2021 - 21:25.

[Requiem84]

Your latter point. It's somewhere in the MErc technical thread, but Merc said Lewis's old engine was nearing the mileage where they were uncertain if it would suddenly expire. So Turkey was a forced change, not done for strategic reasons. It sounds like the issue is within the ICE specifically. Not MGU-K/MGU-H.

If the concern is that the ICE’s in the pool wouldnt make it, how are they expecting to run ICE4 for ALL remaining races? That would be stretching it again.

It does not make sense indeed. I think Mercedes should have decided after Q.

[pdac]

I don't think reporting it to the FIA is when the offence is committed. It's when they first exit the pits with it. So anyone changing elements that incur a penalty needs to try and be first out of the pits.

 

Unless I'm misremembering or unless they changed things, I thought the idea was that you reported to the FIA that you were going to change parts and that marked your position in the queue of penalties to be applied. It was particularly important during the early days when everyone was using up their season quota of parts pretty quickly. That's where I remember it from.

[PayasYouRace]

I don't think reporting it to the FIA is when the offence is committed. It's when they first exit the pits with it. So anyone changing elements that incur a penalty needs to try and be first out of the pits.

As Ivanhoe quoted earlier:

36.3c of the Sporting Regulations:

Once the grid has been established in accordance with a) and b) above, grid position penalties will be applied to the drivers in question in the order the offences were committed. If, following the qualifying practice session, more than one driver incurs a penalty under Article 23.2b3e) or Article 23.45a) preference will be given to the driver whose Competitor first informed the Technical Delegate that a power unit or gearbox change will be carried out.

[Rodaknee]

Any guesses as to how the Mercedes strategy team will make a horlicks on Sunday?

Piss poor strategy strikes again.