Aston Martin with Honda makes the most sense. If Aston Martin wants to beat Mercedes in the long term they need to have another factory engine.
Teams like Mercedes, Audi, Ferrari, Red Bull actually need more teams in F1: to place their junior drivers but also to have more votes on rules issues so Horner & Wolff in particular are stupid to try to block new teams because they would benefit from it and they don't need the tiny litle more income (tiny for them, not tiny for teams like Williams or Haas).
Let's look at the current and potential new teams possible engine deals:
Red Bull - Ford
AlphaTauri - Ford
Ferrari - Ferrari
Haas-Ferrari
Mercedes - Mercedes
Sauber - Audi (will the name Sauber still be used? don't know)
Alpine - Renault
Aston Martin - Honda
McLaren - Mercedes or Audi?
Williams - Mercedes (they have a former Mercedes guy as team boss now with Vowles)
Andretti - Renault (later, '27-'28, possible Cadillac manufactured engine, Andretti might join in '25)
Formula Equal - Mercedes or Honda (Pollock has ties with Honda as former BAR-Honda team boss)
Lucky Sunz - Honda or Hyundai or Nissan badged Renault (This is the former Panthera project, they will surely prefer an Asian engine, maybe Hyundai also commits)
Hitech - Ford (Hitech is currently running Red Bull Juniors so they have a relationship with Red Bull and they would like a customer)
Rodin Carlin - Ford or Mercedes (Carlin has been running Red Bull Juniors too in the past, Mercedes will want another customer if they lose Aston Martin)
Monaco - Renault (this seems the least serious project to me, they plan to run the team from the Campos F2 base I believe)
If we assume that 2 new teams will be added then I believe Andretti will be for sure amongst them. Up to 3 teams may even be added.
Right now AlphaTauri & Haas seem the only two teams that certainly will run with a second engine from a manufacturer (AlphaTauri the Red Bull Power Train Ford and Haas the Ferrari). Andretti, most likely to join, will run a second Renault engine then (that could change in a factory Cadilac engine later). AlphaTauri running Ford is off course logical since it's a Red Bull owned team so it's not an independent customer team paying for the engine.
With Aston Martin looking more and more likely to become a Honda factory partner that only leaves McLaren and Williams as potential customer engine teams. And McLaren & Williams most likely won't be running junior drivers from bigger manufacturer teams like Mercedes, Ferrari, Renault (Alpine) or Audi (Sauber) since Williams have their own Junior program and McLaren is starting one up (they have Ugochukwu and IndyCar drivers O'Ward & Palou now but plan to expand that program, they hired Emanuele Pirro recently for that).
So conclusion is that the big teams really need more, new, smaller teams in F1 to supply them a customer engine ( = more engine data + income from selling the engine), to be able to place juniors there (Alpine could already place 1 junior at Andretti if they are allowed in) and to have more influence in F1 on rules voting.
Where are teams like Mercedes, Ferrari (Haas may prefer an experienced driver instead of a Ferrari rookie), Red Bull (if AlphaTauri is filled up) or Audi (surely they will expand Sauber's current junior program) going to place their junior drivers in the future?
Mercedes has a massive talent, Max Verstappen - Charles Leclerc level of talent imho, with Andrea Kimi Antonelli but... he is currently in F. Regional Europe and of everything goes according to plan he should do F3 in 2024 and F2 in 2025. So he could already be ready for F1 in 2026 but Mercedes (like Ferrari) never hires a rookie, they always want their junior to gain at least one year (like Leclerc at Saube) or more years (Russell at Williams) at another, smaller team.
But which other team is willing to "prepare" a driver for a rival (top) team? Williams not anymore, they have their own Junior program now. Haas maybe for Ferrari (but Haas prefers experienced drivers) and Andretti maybe for Alpine. McLaren doesn't prepare drivers for other teams.
Conclusion: Mercedes has a problem there. Ferrari possibly too and Audi certainly.
Edited by William Hunt, 11 May 2023 - 02:15.