Five races remain in this thrilling F1 season, and the paddocks' North American adventure brings us south of the border, and high in the sky, to Mexico City for the start of a geographically challenging triple-header that will see the teams clock over 19,000km in three weeks, with Brazil and Qatar swiftly following.
Just the regulation 305km awaits the drivers this weekend, at the unique Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez - 2,250m (7,380ft) above sea level, better suited to a Cessna than a racecar. But who will be on cloud nine come Sunday evening?
It's Round 18 of the 2021 Formula One World Championship.
The Circuit
The Title Battle - advantage Max?
After Verstappen's heroic final stint in Austin, he turned what could've been a 2pt deficit into a 12pt lead, a swing that may prove decisive in his championship bid. A lead he can now build on at a track historically suited to driver, car and engine. Two years ago he talked his way out of pole position, so far this year he's done all of his talking on the track. But don't forget Hamilton won this race in 2019, and this season has taught us to expect the unexpected. Mercedes on the back foot, an unfavourable circuit, shades of Singapore 2017, 18?
Just how will the altitude affect the competitive order? Bottas claims the Mercedes engine is better "optimised" than in previous years, and it's fair to say there have been plenty of architecture tweaks over the last 24 months that may have neutralised Honda's assumed lead. Plus, how will the temperamental Red Bull fare at the extreme end of its downforce spec? A must-win for Max, or a must-not-lose? Another ICE penalty for Lewis? And what about a certain second Red Bull driver ...
Checo's Homecoming
Sergio returns to Mexico as a two-time race winner, and for the first time driving machinery that gives him a chance to win his home race, if he's allowed to. His race pace in Sochi, racecraft in Turkey and one-lap speed in Austin all point at a marked improvement in form, culminating at the perfect time to put on a show in front of his adoring fans. On season form, the rear-limited nature of the track should suit him, but he'll have to pull out every last tenth to match Verstappen. Buena suerte!
The Ferrari Factor
Mexico celebrates the Day of the Dead holiday this week - will Ferrari be celebrating Day of the Red on Sunday? The altitude will neutralise their ICE weakness and emphasise their upgraded ERS, which is probably the best on the grid. The track layout and frequency of short, slow corners is something we haven't seen in months, and should really suit their chassis, just like it did in Monaco and Baku qualifying, but will it be enough to gatecrash the title battle? Dark (prancing) horses.
Elsewhere ...
The Scuderia's chief rivals, McLaren, will have their hands full in the midfield. Ricciardo's Texas Turnaround hinted at real progress, but the challenges of Mexico City are wholly different and may revive the difficulties that have haunted him for the majority of the season. Just 3.5 points separate the two teams, as the fight for third in the constructors' heats up.
Both Alpine and Alpha Tauri should take a competitive step thanks to their altitude-suited PU, and remember Alonso's engine is nearly brand new after being introduced last time out. Both will be aiming to ruffle feathers upfront, but with a keen eye on their own private battle. Tsunoda's timely points score in Austin closed the gap to just ten points. Gasly's strong season has tailed off slightly, with two DNFs and one non-score in the last four races. Alpine, too, has gone off the boil, after their streak of scoring in fifteen consecutive weekends came to a juddering halt with a double-DNF in America. It's getting scrappy.
Aston Martin's quiet P7 WCC looks plenty secure, and Vettel's stirring drive from the back at CoTA was a welcome boost after a poor run of form for the German. The green machine has overperformed at the outlier tracks so far, P5 Monaco, P2 Baku, P2 Hungary, P7 Monza, so there's potential for another surprise result.
A frustrating, if not typical, near-miss in Austin consigned Alfa Romeo to another non-score. Their Sunday speed was encouraging and can be built on this weekend at a track that should mask their engine disadvantage, having not fitted the new Ferrari ERS package. One lap pace on Saturday remains a big concern, and with overtaking rather difficult at this track, a weakness that needs to be addressed. The Andretti buyout is off and so all ears remain firmly pointed in the direction of news regarding the second seat.
Williams and Haas round off the grid with little in the way of expectation. Latifi, Schumacher and Mazepin race in Mexico for the first time. Russell's Williams departure edges closer, another shock points score would be a welcome send-off.
Weather, Tyres
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Fri - Dry, 23c
Sat - Dry, 23c
Sun - Dry, 23c
Not exactly a strategic thriller, although the two-year absence may throw some curveballs. The same compounds as 2019, which produced a standard one-stop for most. With the compacted field, qualifying on the Medium in Q2 will be tricky, but crucial.
Tyre pressures: 19.5 psi (front) | 19.5 psi (rear)
Fronts -2.0 psi versus 2019, rears +0.5 psi.
Schedule
It's another late start for Europe. Clocks go back Sunday morning in the US/Canada, which I think I've adjusted for (please let me know if I have made a mistake).
PDT/PST MDT/MST CDT/CST EDT/EST -- GMT CET
FP1 1030 1130 1230 1330 -- 1730 1830
FP2 1400 1500 1600 1700 -- 2100 2200
FP3 1000 1100 1200 1300 -- 1700 1800
Q 1300 1400 1500 1600 -- 2000 2100
R 1100 1200 1300 1400 -- 1900 2000
Time zone conversion here.
Formula 4 NACAM, Freightliner GTM and Carrera Panamerica supporting. Full schedule.
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Thoughts, predictions, turbocharger size comparisons, premature championship declarations, calaca designs and altitude-related puns all welcome below ... 
Edited by TomNokoe, 04 November 2021 - 01:02.
