206 replies to this topic

[TheFish]

Be Max or Lewis at this point? There’s plenty of nuance, but it comes down to having the best car for the last 2 races and expecting that to continue or 8 points on the board. The last 4 races have been a 1-2 between them, with 2 wins each. One win for Max to win it, 2 for Lewis to win it, if there are no crashes/reliability.

It’s the closest title race in years with 2 incredible drivers, which position would you rather be in right now?

[Spyker]

I would rather be leading the championship.

[chrcol]

points on the board no question.

[smitten]

It's Verstappen's to lose in many ways, but the Mercedes has been the better car for the last two races and Hamilton is obviously well motivated. Verstappen, in contrast, is looking a little subdued.

Still, better to have the points than not. I wouldn't bet my mortgage on either outcome at the moment, but I'd bet your mortgage on Verstappen.

Edited by smitten, 21 November 2021 - 21:34.

[TheRhodesian74]

Verstappen still huge favourite. 8 points in the lead plus a RB track up next.

[RPM40]

Max is in a stronger position overall, as any slight hickup from Mercedes mean the title is over. If Red Bull regain the faster car for one race, there will be next to no options for Lewis while Verstappen can still afford to finish 2nd/3rd in a race and win the title overall.

 

Lewis needs to be perfect at this stage while Max just needs to finish ahead in 1 of the remaining races.

 

Also in the situation of a double DNF between them, something very possible with hard racing that alone could place the title out of reach for Lewis. 

[Ben1980]

They both come across as not the most likeable, but Max maybe a bit more likeable, but that's offset by Horner. So, I'd rather Lewis. But it's a toss up.

[ForzaGTR]

The ineptitude of Bottas really helps Max, I can't think of a more useless driver that's squandered such amazing machinery over such a sustained period.

[SenorSjon]

Verstappen still huge favourite. 8 points in the lead plus a RB track up next.

 

in 2022 you mean?

[Jerem]

I wouldn't want to be in Max's position because I would know I'd probably have to crash Lewis on purpose to clinch the title, which would make me feel bad (but not that much, as I would be Max Verstappen).

[Bliman]

I wouldn't want to be in Max's position because I would know I'd probably have to crash Lewis on purpose to clinch the title, which would make me feel bad (but not that much, as I would be Max Verstappen).

funny post .

[TennisUK]

Verstappen still huge favourite. 8 points in the lead plus a RB track up next.

By all accounts Saudi is not likely to be an RB track at all. Abu Fhabi on the other hand…

[FirstnameLastname]

Verstappen can win it with a 2nd place at the next race (if Lewis has a DNF)

So he’s in the prime seat.

[Requiem84]

Still haven’t voted as I’m undecided.

How would a mathematician approach this?

[alframsey]

Points on the board for sure. It is difficult for both Max and Lewis, with each of them having their pros and cons, but IMO it is always better to be leading coming to the crunch.

[Bliman]

Still haven’t voted as I’m undecided.

How would a mathematician approach this?

There are too many variables. So I think they would take the points because these are already in the pocket and Hamilton has not much time anymore to counter that.

[Bliman]

To me the points are the most important. If we had maybe 5-6 races left than I think it would swing to Mercedes if and that is a big if the current form would continue. But now we have only a few races left and Hamilton has to be perfect.

And that is to much I think if we take into account that we have had a season where neither Red Bull or Mercedes has dominated. And where Red Bull has been consistantly been better in operations and strategy.

So if I was Max I would feel very good at this point.

[PlatenGlass]

Still haven’t voted as I’m undecided.

How would a mathematician approach this?

They'd go here https://www.oddschec...pionship/winner and say "Guess I'd rather be Hamilton then."

[flyboym3]

Still haven’t voted as I’m undecided.

How would a mathematician approach this?

One entrant has/had to win 4 in a row when he hasn't managed it all year, back to back victories only achieved today.

One entrant has to win twice as many of the remaining races than the other, who only needs one victory.

Probability of achieving this based on this seasons history has to be less than 50% thus unlikely.

Obviously there is a pathway for Lewis but it requires 100% perfection over 4 races, he hasn't achieved that all year.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

But, momentum is a thing and pressure can do funny things so who really knows.

Edited by flyboym3, 21 November 2021 - 22:20.

[ClubmanGT]

Lewis. Form, the machinery, you can't buy that kind of pressure. 

[Requiem84]

They'd go here https://www.oddschec...pionship/winner and say "Guess I'd rather be Hamilton then."

So Lewis is significantly on top at the bookmakers?

[Bliman]

So Lewis is significantly on top at the bookmakers?

Just so you know you have more knowledge than them.

[PayasYouRace]

I'm not sure who I'd rather be in this situation. Max has the points advantage, but it's not a comfortable margin. Lewis has the Mercedes momentum, but pace isn't guaranteed at any circuit this year.

 

Can I be Vettel?

[smitten]

They'd go here https://www.oddschec...pionship/winner and say "Guess I'd rather be Hamilton then."

But bookies odds don't actually represent the chance of the result occuring but instead resprent the betting patterns of the punters who are notoriously poor at making good judgements. Ever met a poor bookie?

[Jerem]

Still haven’t voted as I’m undecided.

How would a mathematician approach this?

I am a mathematician, and I my only advice would be to ignore AWS.
 
 

[TheFish]

So Lewis is significantly on top at the bookmakers?

m

Significantly is too strong. That’s a small favourite. When you get to 1/2 it’s significant.

[MaroF1]

Sorry for the incorrect vote, I thought it was about who would you rather to win the championship, my bad. It's obvious that Lewis is in a much better position, I'd say its 80-20 for Lewis right now, only slow pit stops, reliability and Max being super agressive( colission between the two) would prevent Lewis of winning this year. He has the pace advantage and its quite big, and the gap is only 8 little points.

Edited by MaroF1, 21 November 2021 - 22:29.

[Huracan]

Lewis for sure. He has the momentum, the faster car and both remaining tracks are in favor of the Merc. Easy choice.

[Afterburner]

Hamilton is in control of his destiny more so than Verstappen, I think. An ostensibly quicker car and tracks that favor it up ahead on the schedule; Verstappen has to hope Mercedes or Hamilton mess up. I’d rather be in Hamilton’s position right now.

I think this is a matter of perspective more than a question of which driver has it easier, I think–neither position is an easy one, though I can think of harder ones.

[TheFish]

Hamilton is in control of his destiny more so than Verstappen, I think. An ostensibly quicker car and tracks that favor it up ahead on the schedule; Verstappen has to hope Mercedes or Hamilton mess up. I’d rather be in Hamilton’s position right now.

I think this is a matter of perspective more than a question of which driver had it easier, I think–neither position is an easy one, though I can think of harder ones.

I think it’s very finely balanced right now which is why it’s such a good question. 2 races ago it was clearly Max in control, 2 wins later for Lewis and it’s switched around. Who knows what the next 2 will bring, I’ll be amazed if there’s no drama.

[Bliman]

I am a mathematician, and I my only advice would be to ignore AWS.
 
 

Wow funny and smart. I seriously wish I was you

[Bliman]

Lewis for sure. He has the momentum, the faster car and both remaining tracks are in favor of the Merc. Easy choice.

Why do you say the remaining tracks are in favor of the Merc? Didn't Max win last year in Abu Dhabi?

[DeKnyff]

I'd rather be Max.

 

Saudi Arabia: very fast, full power track. Mercedes rocket engine will do wonders, although being a new circuit, there is a degree of uncertainty. I'd say 70% Lewis, 30% Max

 

Abu Dhabi: Red Bull have traditionally been good here, but changes in layout are said to favour Mercedes. On the other hand, the super engine will already be tired. Also, Lewis would arrive there leading the WDC (see my previous line) , so more pressure for Max. IMO, its 50% / 50%.

 

Max would finish at least 3rd in any case (easily achievable) and reliability and incidents are unpredictable.

 

Lewis wins SA and AD = 70% * 50% = 35% (Lewis champion)

Lewis wins SA and Max wins AD = 70% * 50% = 35% (Max champion)

Max wins SA and Lewis wins AD = 30% * 50% = 15% (Max champion)

Max wins SA and AD = 30% * 50% = 15% (Max champion)

 

Total:

Max champion = 65%

Lewis champion = 35%

 

However, I'm not sure that figures reflect reality...

[FirstnameLastname]

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush…

[Venom]

Give me Lewis position. Knowing you have the car to win the last two races and it’s in your hands. Rather than Max who can only hope something goes wrong for him.

Saying that Lewis has never won 4 in a row all season is an irrelevant point because the Mercedes hasn’t had an advantage like this all season. It’s a new scenario and a 102x GP winner is perfectly capable of winning 4 in a row.

[tempname11]

The points advantage is currently negligible (~3 in old money), but the car advantage is pretty substantial. I feel that Lewis has got it, and I would bet money on it, if not for the fact that I despise bookmakers and everything related.

[Bliman]

Give me Lewis position. Knowing you have the car to win the last two races and it’s in your hands. Rather than Max who can only hope something goes wrong for him.

Saying that Lewis has never won 4 in a row all season is an irrelevant point because the Mercedes hasn’t had an advantage like this all season. It’s a new scenario and a 102x GP winner is perfectly capable of winning 4 in a row.

Why do you think they keep the car advantage?

[MJB5990]

Max. I've got points on the board. Lewis has to win the next two and I feel Max will get a chance to lead one of the last two at some point.

[Venom]

Why do you think they keep the car advantage?

They’ve dominated two races in a row - one which was supposed to be a “Red Bull track”, and one which Toto Wolff described as their “Achilles Heel” out of the last 3 rounds.

Now they have two tracks upcoming which have layouts which favour them and they are openly bullish about.

There’s no sure things in Formula 1, but there’s lot more reasons to believe they’ll retain their advantage than lose it.

[Huracan]

Why do you say the remaining tracks are in favor of the Merc? Didn't Max win last year in Abu Dhabi?

Saudi Arabia is a power track. I don't expect RB to come anywhere near Merc, wouldn't be surprised if Bottas splits Lewis and Max.

The only reason Max won in Abu Dhabi last year was because Merc had massively detuned the engines.

Also the changes in layout this year are in favor of Merc.

[Bliman]

They’ve dominated two races in a row - one which was supposed to be a “Red Bull track”, and one which Toto Wolff described as their “Achilles Heel” out of the last 3 rounds.

Now they have two tracks upcoming which have layouts which favour them and they are openly bullish about.

There’s no sure things in Formula 1, but there’s lot more reasons to believe they’ll retain their advantage than lose it.

Sure but Austin was supposed to be a Mercedes track. And Red Bull won in Mexico and Austin. Also why do you think the last track favours Mercedes? Red Bull won last year and now I hear that it has a banking. In Zandvoort there also was a banking and guess who won there.

So I have no clue why it is considered a Mercedes track. From what I know it is pretty even there.

But I have a feeling that Red Bull will pull something out of the bag either next race or the last blindsighting Mercedes completely.

It would not surprise me if Red Bull will get an update and they will take a new engine.

They have two chances and can have a few ways how they can approach it. And I think they will put all there money on one race.

[Bliman]

Saudi Arabia is a power track. I don't expect RB to come anywhere near Merc, wouldn't be surprised if Bottas splits Lewis and Max.

The only reason Max won in Abu Dhabi last year was because Merc had massively detuned the engines.

Also the changes in layout this year are in favor of Merc.

But I read from some Max supporters that Abu Dhabi was some sort of turn around from them. Also I am hearing now that the engine for Hamilton would already be less there. Like I said I expect something bold from Red Bull. It is in there DNA.

[PlatenGlass]

One entrant has/had to win 4 in a row when he hasn't managed it all year, back to back victories only achieved today.

One entrant has to win twice as many of the remaining races than the other, who only needs one victory.

Probability of achieving this based on this seasons history has to be less than 50% thus unlikely.

Obviously there is a pathway for Lewis but it requires 100% perfection over 4 races, he hasn't achieved that all year.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush.

But, momentum is a thing and pressure can do funny things so who really knows.

Four in a row is a red herring. There's only two races left and to consider the previous two wins as making it less likely is some version of the gambler's fallacy. https://en.m.wikiped...mbler's_fallacy

[pdac]

Neither. I'd rather be Alonso at this point.

 

Edit:

But if I'm forced to, I would say Max is leading the WDC, so that must be the desirable position to be in.

Edited by pdac, 21 November 2021 - 23:11.

[BelievableNonsense]

Max every day of the week and twice on Sunday. He actually has a points advantage and it’s his to lose

Lewis winning will be snatching victory from the impending snapping jaws of defeat

[Alfisti]

51/49 max, it is that tight.

I am not convinced max will see Lewis again, they've found something have Mercedes, pace wise Lewis is now well clear imho.

Only thing I can see saving max is something like the merc becoming a princess in qualy again or something, she can be a bit fussy at times. Otherwise, gee.....he's sooooo fast.

[Venom]

Sure but Austin was supposed to be a Mercedes track. And Red Bull won in Mexico and Austin. Also why do you think the last track favours Mercedes? Red Bull won last year and now I hear that it has a banking. In Zandvoort there also was a banking and guess who won there.
So I have no clue why it is considered a Mercedes track. From what I know it is pretty even there.
But I have a feeling that Red Bull will pull something out of the bag either next race or the last blindsighting Mercedes completely.
It would not surprise me if Red Bull will get an update and they will take a new engine.
They have two chances and can have a few ways how they can approach it. And I think they will put all there money on one race.

Austin wasn’t a track which was heavily favoured one way or another if I recall, and that’s how it played out with a close race. Mexico was predicted by everyone to be RB’s best race of the year.

Abu Dhabi has been one of Mercedes happiest hunting grounds going back beyond years. The race last year Lewis was recovering from COVID after effects, was beaten by Bottas and had no incentive to push himself to the point of discomfort. The layout changes also take out a lot of the slow speed corners where RB typically thrive. So I wouldn’t too many eggs in that basket.

Also, Red Bull’s advantage on the banking at Zandvoort only really came from the tight and heavily banked turn 3. I really doubt we’ll see anything that dramatic at Abu Dhabi but it remains to be seen I suppose.

But it seems your main argument for RB is largely along the lines of “you never know what can happen”. Which is true. But between the scenarios of banking on Red Bull pulling something out the bag (with no money left under the cap and all focus on 2022 cars), or Mercedes retaining at least a good proportion of their advantage from the last two races, I’m going with option B

Edited by Venom, 21 November 2021 - 23:29.

[Gravelngrass]

With no other teams or drivers realistically in between, with the reliability record of current F1 cars and the trend of incredible qualy and race speed shown by Mercedes in the last two races, it's definitely Ham's championship to lose.

 

If the circumstances were different, as in anyone else being capable of interfering between a 1st and 2nd position, or if Brazil hadn't shown a spectacular pace advantage for Mercedes where two grid penalties were overcome as if the car was in a different category, I'd rather have an 8 point advantage. But all Ham really has to do, if things remain as in the last 2 races, is drive to a delta without crashing or abandoning and the title will be his.

 

Thing is, IMO, that the current Mercedes trend seems to show that they have found something that is beyond track advantages for one or the other side on different weekends; it's something more lasting that simply has made their car faster enough under many circumstances, and too difficult to be equaled or overcome in the limited time remaining. 

[as65p]

Verstappen of course. But given the current balance of power he definitely needs luck falling his way some time during the last two weekends.

[Squeed]

Be Max or Lewis at this point? There’s plenty of nuance, but it comes down to having the best car for the last 2 races and expecting that to continue or 8 points on the board. The last 4 races have been a 1-2 between them, with 2 wins each. One win for Max to win it, 2 for Lewis to win it, if there are no crashes/reliability.

It’s the closest title race in years with 2 incredible drivers, which position would you rather be in right now?

 

If Red Bull leadership wasn’t showing signs of sheer panic, I’d say Max.  But Horner’s behavior suggests that Merc’s performance since Brazil has caught them out and they have nothing let in the bag to fight back.  I’m sure they’re scrambling to come up with something, but Max’s DRS flap problems suggests that the upgrades they’re attempting to bring aren’t quite fully developed/ready for racing.  

 

I’m enjoying Horner’s panicked temper tantrums after all the goading he directed towards Toto last week.