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[SpaceHorseParty]

Apologies for being so late with starting this topic. The 2022 Silly Season Trophy guesses were made almost a year ago, and I will publish the interim results here, as they changed during this year.
 
First, let's rewind to December 1, the submission deadline. At that time, there were seven drivers who were known to have contracts for 2022. These were:

• Fernando Alonso, Alpine
• Charles Leclerc, Ferrari
• Lando Norris, McLaren
• Daniel Ricciardo, McLaren
• Carlos Sainz, Ferrari
• Max Verstappen, Red Bull
• Sebastian Vettel, Aston Martin

This meant that the initial (unofficial) scores were as follows:

Place Name             Points  Exact Subm
  1   DutchQuicksilver  50.44    7     1 
  2   sladealonso       50.44    7     2 
  3   rodlamas          50.44    7     3 
  4   KWSN - DSM        50.44    7     4 
  5   SpaceHorseParty   50.44    7     6 
  6   Makarias          50.44    7     7 
  7   M2000-5           50.44    7     9 
  8   Marklar           50.44    7    10 
      AVERAGE PICK      50.44    7       
  9   f1paul            45.22    6     5 
 10   scheivlak         45.22    6     8 

And the potential maximum scores for the players were as follows:

Place Name             Points  Exact Subm
  1   KWSN - DSM       138.00   20     4 
  2   rodlamas         133.33   20     3 
  3   Makarias         130.11   20     7 
  4   Marklar          128.33   20    10 
  5   scheivlak        127.78   19     8 
  6   DutchQuicksilver 127.22   20     1 
  7   sladealonso      127.22   20     2 
  8   M2000-5          127.22   20     9 
      AVERAGE PICK     125.44   20       
  9   SpaceHorseParty  124.11   20     6 
 10   f1paul           123.33   19     5 

f1paul and scheivlak miss one exact pick each. f1paul believed Gasly would replace Norris at McLaren, while scheivlak thought Bottas would replace Vettel at Aston Martin.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:07.

[SpaceHorseParty]

During the month of December, two new drivers were announced.

• Nikita Mazepin, Haas
• Mick Schumacher, Haas

Both of them were announced at the very beginning of December, with deals for 2021 and beyond.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  61.33 +10.89   9     1 
  2     0 sladealonso       61.33 +10.89   9     2 
  3     0 rodlamas          61.33 +10.89   9     3 
  4   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   61.33 +10.89   9     6 
  5   + 3 Marklar           61.33 +10.89   9    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      61.33 +10.89   9       
  6   - 2 KWSN - DSM        57.67 + 7.23   8     4 
  7     0 M2000-5           57.67 + 7.23   8     9 
  8   + 1 f1paul            56.11 +10.89   8     5 
  9   - 3 Makarias          56.11 + 5.67   8     7 
 10     0 scheivlak         52.44 + 7.22   7     8 

Still five players with perfect scores. Some players expected Mazepin or Schumacher to move on to greener pastures after 2021. Of course, with contracts in Formula One, you never know...

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 1 rodlamas         133.33   0.00  20     3 
  2   - 1 KWSN - DSM       128.78 - 9.22  18     4 
  3   + 1 Marklar          128.33   0.00  20    10 
  4   + 2 DutchQuicksilver 127.22   0.00  20     1 
  5   + 2 sladealonso      127.22   0.00  20     2 
          AVERAGE PICK     125.44   0.00  20       
  6   + 3 SpaceHorseParty  124.11   0.00  20     6 
  7   + 3 f1paul           123.33   0.00  19     5 
  8   - 5 Makarias         123.11 - 7.00  19     7 
  9   - 4 scheivlak        118.56 - 9.22  17     8 
 10   - 2 M2000-5          118.33 - 8.89  18     9 

KWSN - DSM takes a hit in the potential standings. He would have loved to see an all-Russian lineup at Haas with Shwartzman joining Mazepin, and for Schumacher to join Alfa Romeo.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:08.

[SpaceHorseParty]

I'm going by the information Wikipedia has, and it was in January when Wikipedia editors noticed Nicholas Latifi had already signed a deal that went until the end of 2022.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  66.78 + 5.45  10     1 
  2     0 sladealonso       66.78 + 5.45  10     2 
  3     0 rodlamas          66.78 + 5.45  10     3 
  4     0 SpaceHorseParty   66.78 + 5.45  10     6 
  5     0 Marklar           66.78 + 5.45  10    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      66.78 + 5.45  10       
  6   + 2 f1paul            61.56 + 5.45   9     5 
  7   + 2 Makarias          61.56 + 5.45   9     7 
  8   + 2 scheivlak         57.89 + 5.45   8     8 
  9   - 3 KWSN - DSM        57.67   0.00   8     4 
 10   - 3 M2000-5           57.67   0.00   8     9 

Obviously, this was a popular pick. The only two players not to pick Latifi fall to the back of the standings. KWSN - DSM bet on Williams overhauling their lineup and hiring Bottas and Ocon. M2000-5 believed Russell would be joined by an unknown (i.e., unpicked) teammate.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas         133.33   0.00  20     3 
  2   + 1 Marklar          128.33   0.00  20    10 
  3   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 127.22   0.00  20     1 
  4   + 1 sladealonso      127.22   0.00  20     2 
          AVERAGE PICK     125.44   0.00  20       
  5   + 1 SpaceHorseParty  124.11   0.00  20     6 
  6   + 1 f1paul           123.33   0.00  19     5 
  7   + 1 Makarias         123.11   0.00  19     7 
  8   - 6 KWSN - DSM       122.56 - 6.22  17     4 
  9     0 scheivlak        118.56   0.00  17     8 
 10     0 M2000-5          113.33 - 5.00  17     9 

With half the seats now filled, the most interesting part is about to start.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:09.

[SpaceHorseParty]

After the long-term deals filled the first ten seats, the teams were in no hurry to sign the drivers for the other ten. We had to wait until June to see Alpine announce a contract extension for Esteban Ocon.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  73.78 + 7.00  11     1 
  2     0 sladealonso       66.78   0.00  10     2 
  3     0 rodlamas          66.78   0.00  10     3 
  4     0 SpaceHorseParty   66.78   0.00  10     6 
  5     0 Marklar           66.78   0.00  10    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      66.78   0.00  10       
  6   + 1 Makarias          64.22 + 2.66   9     7 
  7   - 1 f1paul            61.56   0.00   9     5 
  8     0 scheivlak         60.56 + 2.67   8     8 
  9     0 KWSN - DSM        60.33 + 2.66   8     4 
 10     0 M2000-5           57.67   0.00   8     9 

Ocon's sub-par 2020, as well as the abundance of Alpine juniors coming up the ranks led many to believe Ocon's days at the team were numbered. DutchQuicksilver takes home seven points for being the only player to place Ocon at Alpine. This gives him a seven point lead over everyone else. Makarias, scheivlak and KWSN - DSM score a few points for placing him at other teams.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas         127.44 - 5.89  19     3 
  2   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 127.22   0.00  20     1 
  3   - 1 Marklar          122.44 - 5.89  19    10 
  4     0 sladealonso      120.44 - 6.78  19     2 
          AVERAGE PICK     119.56 - 5.88  19       
  5   + 3 KWSN - DSM       118.78 - 3.78  16     4 
  6   - 1 SpaceHorseParty  118.22 - 5.89  19     6 
  7   - 1 f1paul           116.56 - 6.77  18     5 
  8   - 1 Makarias         115.78 - 7.33  17     7 
  9     0 scheivlak        109.78 - 8.78  15     8 
 10     0 M2000-5          107.44 - 5.89  16     9 

The maximum potential points table tightens. DutchQuicksilver still has a chance to have a perfect score.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:11.

[SpaceHorseParty]

It took a long time for Lewis Hamilton to sign a contract for 2021. He and Mercedes reached a 2022 deal way sooner, in July.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  78.78 + 5.00  12     1 
  2     0 sladealonso       71.78 + 5.00  11     2 
  3     0 rodlamas          71.78 + 5.00  11     3 
  4     0 SpaceHorseParty   71.78 + 5.00  11     6 
  5     0 Marklar           71.78 + 5.00  11    10 
          AVERAGE PICK      71.78 + 5.00  11       
  6     0 Makarias          69.22 + 5.00  10     7 
  7     0 f1paul            66.56 + 5.00  10     5 
  8     0 scheivlak         65.56 + 5.00   9     8 
  9     0 KWSN - DSM        65.33 + 5.00   9     4 
 10     0 M2000-5           62.67 + 5.00   9     9 

Nobody was surprised by that, at least among the players. Five points to all.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:12.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Late August, Red Bull announced they would extend their deal with Sergio Pérez.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  81.11 + 2.33  12     1 
  2   + 1 rodlamas          78.33 + 6.55  12     3 
  3   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   78.33 + 6.55  12     6 
          AVERAGE PICK      78.33 + 6.55  12       
  4   + 1 Marklar           74.11 + 2.33  11    10 
  5   - 3 sladealonso       71.78   0.00  11     2 
  6     0 Makarias          71.56 + 2.34  10     7 
  7   + 3 M2000-5           69.22 + 6.55  10     9 
  8     0 scheivlak         67.89 + 2.33   9     8 
  9   - 2 f1paul            66.56   0.00  10     5 
 10   - 1 KWSN - DSM        65.33   0.00   9     4

DutchQuicksilver's perfect streak ended here, as he expected Gasly to return to the mother team. A few others made the same mistake. DutchQuicksilver still retains the lead by a few points. sladealonso drops out of second place, having expected Pérez wouldn't find a seat in 2022.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas         127.44   0.00  19     3 
          AVERAGE PICK     119.56   0.00  19       
  2   + 4 SpaceHorseParty  118.22   0.00  19     6 
  3   - 1 DutchQuicksilver 117.78 - 9.44  18     1 
  4     0 sladealonso      113.67 - 6.77  18     2 
  5   - 2 Marklar          113.00 - 9.44  17    10 
  6   + 1 f1paul           109.56 - 7.00  17     5 
  7   - 2 KWSN - DSM       108.67 -10.11  15     4 
  8   + 2 M2000-5          107.44   0.00  16     9 
  9   - 1 Makarias         106.22 - 9.56  15     7 
 10   - 1 scheivlak        105.00 - 4.78  14     8 

rodlamas's potential score has been the highest of all players for nearly the entire span of the game. Will the full potential of his picks be harnessed?

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:13.

[SpaceHorseParty]

There were many announcements in September, and I will not go through them one by one. Instead, I will group them, where possible.
 
First, we had the moves related to the second Mercedes seat:

• Kimi Räikkönen retires
• Valtteri Bottas, Alfa Romeo
• George Russell, Mercedes

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  85.33 + 4.22  12     1 
  2     0 rodlamas          82.56 + 4.23  12     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      82.56 + 4.23  12       
  3     0 SpaceHorseParty   80.44 + 2.11  12     6 
  4     0 Marklar           80.44 + 6.33  12    10 
  5   + 3 scheivlak         76.33 + 8.44  10     8 
  6   - 1 sladealonso       76.00 + 4.22  11     2 
  7   - 1 Makarias          75.78 + 4.22  10     7 
  8   + 1 f1paul            75.00 + 8.44  11     5 
  9   + 1 KWSN - DSM        73.78 + 8.45  10     4 
 10   - 3 M2000-5           73.44 + 4.22  10     9 

Four players placed Russell at Mercedes, but nobody expected Bottas to go to Alfa Romeo. SpaceHorseParty, presumably due to temporary insanity, left Russell out completely, and thus gets the least points from this trio of announcements.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas         115.67 -11.77  16     3 
  2   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 109.56 - 8.22  16     1 
  3   - 1 SpaceHorseParty  108.56 - 9.66  17     6 
          AVERAGE PICK     107.78 -11.78  16       
  4   + 1 Marklar          107.44 - 5.56  16    10 
  5   + 1 f1paul           105.11 - 4.45  16     5 
  6   + 1 KWSN - DSM       104.00 - 4.67  14     4 
  7   + 3 scheivlak        103.11 - 1.89  14     8 
  8   - 4 sladealonso      101.56 -12.11  15     2 
  9     0 Makarias         101.56 - 4.66  14     7 
 10   - 2 M2000-5           97.67 - 9.77  14     9 

rodlamas still has the biggest potential of all players. M2000-5's maximum points tally drops below 100 points, and his chances of winning become ever slimmer.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:16.

[SpaceHorseParty]

AlphaTauri then announced Gasly and Tsunoda would stay at the team in 2022.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  92.78 + 7.45  13     1 
  2     0 rodlamas          90.00 + 7.44  13     3 
          AVERAGE PICK      90.00 + 7.44  13       
  3     0 SpaceHorseParty   87.89 + 7.45  13     6 
  4   + 1 scheivlak         85.33 + 9.00  11     8 
  5   - 1 Marklar           84.44 + 4.00  12    10 
  6     0 sladealonso       83.44 + 7.44  12     2 
  7     0 Makarias          83.22 + 7.44  11     7 
  8     0 f1paul            82.44 + 7.44  12     5 
  9     0 KWSN - DSM        81.22 + 7.44  11     4 
 10     0 M2000-5           80.89 + 7.45  11     9 

Most players expected either Gasly or Tsunoda to stay at AlphaTauri, with the other moving to a different team. Marklar picked Vips and Albon for AlphaTauri, with Tsunoda joining Red Bull and Gasly joining Alpine. scheivlak was the only one to pick Gasly for AlphaTauri and Tsunoda for Red Bull. He scores more points than the others because less people predicted Gasly would stay at AlphaTauri.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 rodlamas         107.56 - 8.11  15     3 
  2     0 DutchQuicksilver 105.89 - 3.67  15     1 
  3     0 SpaceHorseParty  104.44 - 4.12  16     6 
          AVERAGE PICK     104.00 - 3.78  15       
  4   + 1 f1paul           100.11 - 5.00  15     5 
  5   - 1 Marklar           99.33 - 8.11  14    10 
  6   + 1 scheivlak         99.33 - 3.78  13     8 
  7   - 1 KWSN - DSM        99.22 - 4.78  13     4 
  8     0 sladealonso       97.00 - 4.56  14     2 
  9     0 Makarias          96.78 - 4.78  13     7 
 10     0 M2000-5           93.56 - 4.11  13     9 

The maximum points table starts to resemble the real points more and more...

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:17.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Williams announced Alex Albon would return to Formula One and join Williams.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver  95.22 + 2.44  13     1 
          AVERAGE PICK      92.44 + 2.44  13       
  2   + 1 SpaceHorseParty   90.33 + 2.44  13     6 
  3   - 1 rodlamas          90.00   0.00  13     3 
  4   + 4 f1paul            89.44 + 7.00  13     5 
  5   - 1 scheivlak         87.78 + 2.45  11     8 
  6   - 1 Marklar           86.89 + 2.45  12    10 
  7   - 1 sladealonso       83.44   0.00  12     2 
  8   + 2 M2000-5           83.33 + 2.44  11     9 
  9   - 2 Makarias          83.22   0.00  11     7 
 10   - 1 KWSN - DSM        81.22   0.00  11     4 

This seemed like a bit of a left-field choice, so it's interesting to see f1paul actually got it exactly right. Kudos to him! rodlamas fails to score on this, so DutchQuicksilver's lead over second place is now nearly five points.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1   + 1 DutchQuicksilver 105.89   0.00  15     1 
          AVERAGE PICK     104.00   0.00  15       
  2   - 1 rodlamas         102.56 - 5.00  14     3 
  3     0 SpaceHorseParty  101.89 - 2.55  15     6 
  4     0 f1paul           100.11   0.00  15     5 
  5   + 1 scheivlak         99.33   0.00  13     8 
  6   - 1 Marklar           98.89 - 0.44  14    10 
  7     0 KWSN - DSM        94.22 - 5.00  12     4 
  8     0 sladealonso       94.11 - 2.89  14     2 
  9     0 Makarias          93.89 - 2.89  13     7 
 10     0 M2000-5           91.00 - 2.56  12     9 

Only six players can now catch DutchQuicksilver (assuming no contract breaches and no substitutions).

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:18.

[SpaceHorseParty]

After most seats were filled, Aston Martin decided to announce what was already obvious and confirmed Lance Stroll would continue at the team in 2022.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver 100.22 + 5.00  14     1 
          AVERAGE PICK      97.44 + 5.00  14       
  2     0 SpaceHorseParty   95.33 + 5.00  14     6 
  3     0 rodlamas          95.00 + 5.00  14     3 
  4     0 f1paul            94.44 + 5.00  14     5 
  5     0 scheivlak         92.78 + 5.00  12     8 
  6     0 Marklar           91.89 + 5.00  13    10 
  7     0 sladealonso       88.44 + 5.00  13     2 
  8     0 M2000-5           88.33 + 5.00  12     9 
  9     0 Makarias          88.22 + 5.00  12     7 
 10     0 KWSN - DSM        86.22 + 5.00  12     4 

Five points to all. Yippee.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver 105.89   0.00  15     1 
          AVERAGE PICK     104.00   0.00  15       
  2   + 1 SpaceHorseParty  101.89   0.00  15     6 
  3   - 1 rodlamas         101.56 - 1.00  15     3 
  4     0 f1paul           100.11   0.00  15     5 
  5     0 scheivlak         99.33   0.00  13     8 
  6     0 Marklar           98.89   0.00  14    10 
  7   + 1 sladealonso       94.11   0.00  14     2 
  8   + 1 Makarias          93.89   0.00  13     7 
  9   - 2 KWSN - DSM        93.22 - 1.00  13     4 
 10     0 M2000-5           91.00   0.00  12     9 

rodlamas and KWSN - DSM do lose one point each in the potential standings, as it would have been better for them if Aston Martin had announced one of their unpicked, but unique drivers instead. Hülkenberg for rodlamas or Magnussen for KWSN - DSM would have netted six points.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:21.

[SpaceHorseParty]

Finally, just this month, Alfa Romeo confirmed Guanyu Zhou would join the team in 2022. Nobody predicted Zhou would join F1 in 2022, so, somewhat anticlimactically, these are the (unofficial) final results.

Place DPl Name             Points  DPt   Exact Subm
  1     0 DutchQuicksilver 100.22   0.00  14     1 
          AVERAGE PICK      97.44   0.00  14       
  2     0 SpaceHorseParty   95.33   0.00  14     6 
  3     0 rodlamas          95.00   0.00  14     3 
  4     0 f1paul            94.44   0.00  14     5 
  5     0 scheivlak         92.78   0.00  12     8 
  6     0 Marklar           91.89   0.00  13    10 
  7     0 sladealonso       88.44   0.00  13     2 
  8     0 M2000-5           88.33   0.00  12     9 
  9     0 Makarias          88.22   0.00  12     7 
 10     0 KWSN - DSM        86.22   0.00  12     4 

DutchQuicksilver looks set to win his first Silly Season Trophy. Of course, this is subject to change, as things can change between now and the first race of 2022. However, with a lead of almost five points, he can feel somewhat safe.

Edited by SpaceHorseParty, 27 November 2021 - 20:21.