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Guess the Pole 2021: Abu Dhabi


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 04 December 2021 - 18:39

SEASON FINALE
A normal scoring round for the first time in ages.

MODIFIED CIRCUIT! Lap shortened by 273 metres, some corners disappearing and replaced by others. DOUBLED TIME SPANS!

Players who are in the title race can PM me their guesses if they so wish.
These are: Bleu, alekracing, scheivlak, and with the help of divine intervention also GTA.

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Grid penalties are ignored if and only if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Entries are accepted only if they are submitted/edited before First Free Practice.
Entries that are edited after the beginning of First Free Practice but before I have registered the entries will be ignored.

Scoring rules

-The best ten guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close to the actual pole position time according to this list:

     <-----------Time offsets----------->
Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]
25   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300
18   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600
15   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200
12   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800
10   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400
 8   - 1.000       - 2.000       - 3.000
 6   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600
 4   - 1.500       - 3.000       - 4.500
 2   - 1.800       - 3.600       - 5.400
 1   - 2.500       - 5.000       - 7.500

The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.
A track that hasn't been used for the previous five seasons counts as a New Track.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:

Pts   Recent qualifying results
18     0 front row starts in the previous five races
13     1 front row start in the previous five races
 9     2 front row starts in the previous five races
 6     3 front row starts in the previous five races
 4     4 front row starts in the previous five races
 3     5 front row starts in the previous five races

2021 standings
 

Five latest poles at Abu Dhabi:
Year  Driver       Pole time (s)
2020  Verstappen    95.246
2019  Hamilton      94.779
2018  Hamilton      94.794
2017  Bottas        96.231
2016  Hamilton      98.755

Driver values:
Dri  val
Hami   4
Bott   6
Vers   6
REST  18

2021 data:
                  Time    2020 PP  2019 PP  2018 PP  2021/2020  2021/2019  2021/2018
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH  Vers  Hami   88.997   87.264   87.866   87.958   101.986    101.287    101.181
EMI  Hami  Pere   74.411   73.609   ------   ------   101.090     ------     ------
POR  Bott  Hami   78.348   76.652   ------   ------   102.213     ------     ------
ESP  Hami  Vers   76.741   75.584   75.406   76.173   101.531    101.770    100.746
MON  Lecl  Vers   70.346   ------   70.166   70.810    ------    100.257     99.345
AZE  Lecl  Hami  101.218   ------  100.495  101.498    ------    100.719     99.724
FRA  Vers  Hami   89.990   ------   88.319   90.029    ------    101.892     99.957
STY  Vers  Bott   63.841   62.939   63.003   63.130   101.433    101.330    101.126
AUT  Vers  Norr   63.720   62.939   63.003   63.130   101.241    101.138    100.935
GB   Hami  Vers   86.134   84.303   85.093   85.892   102.172    101.223    100.282
HUN  Hami  Bott   75.419   73.447   74.572   95.658   102.685    101.136     78.842
BEL  Vers  Russ  119.765  101.252  102.519  118.179   118.284    116.822    101.342
NED  Vers  Hami   68.885   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ITA  Hami  Vers   79.651   78.887   79.307   79.119   100.968    100.434    100.672
RUS  Norr  Sain  101.993   91.304   91.628   91.387   111.707    111.312    111.606
TUR  Bott  Vers   82.998  107.765   ------   ------    77.018     ------     ------
USA  Vers  Hami   92.910   ------   92.029   92.237    ------    100.957    100.730
MEX  Bott  Hami   75.875   ------   74.758   74.759    ------    101.494    101.493
BRA  Vers  Bott   68.372   ------   67.508   67.281    ------    101.280    101.622
QAT  Hami  Vers   80.827   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
SAU  Hami  Bott   87.511   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ABU                    0   95.246   94.779   94.794                                

My guess for Abu Dhabi is 95.986 s by Lewis Hamilton.


Edited by Makarias, 08 December 2021 - 18:47.


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#2 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 04 December 2021 - 19:06

Wasn’t the track modified for this year? So shouldn’t it count as a modfied layout?

#3 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 08 December 2021 - 14:37

97.711 - Verstappen



#4 Makarias

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Posted 08 December 2021 - 18:37

Wasn’t the track modified for this year? So shouldn’t it count as a modfied layout?

Yes indeed, thanks! I had no cleu as usual. Pretty significant changes too:

 

https://en.wikipedia..._Marina_Circuit



#5 Makarias

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Posted 08 December 2021 - 18:48

Revised guess due to finding out about the new, interesting layout: 88.257 s, Lewis Hamilton.


Edited by Makarias, 08 December 2021 - 18:50.


#6 Makarias

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Posted 08 December 2021 - 18:55

From Andy35 (edited) : 90.440 s, Hamilton


Edited by Makarias, 08 December 2021 - 22:28.


#7 GTA

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Posted 09 December 2021 - 01:35

83.069 Ver



#8 mark f1

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Posted 09 December 2021 - 09:40

Hamilton 86.234


Edited by mark f1, 09 December 2021 - 23:16.


#9 Anderis

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Posted 09 December 2021 - 12:36

87.000 Hamilton



#10 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 09 December 2021 - 18:02

87.652 Lewis Hamilton



#11 f1paul

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Posted 09 December 2021 - 21:22

83.222 Verstappen


Edited by f1paul, 09 December 2021 - 22:09.


#12 Makarias

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Posted 09 December 2021 - 23:36

scheivlak has PM:ed a guess that will be published here when the entry deadline has been passed.



#13 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 02:31

82.383 Verstappen



#14 M2000-5

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 07:32

86.513 Hamilton



#15 Bleu

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 08:13

84.702 Verstappen



#16 Makarias

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 09:25

Also in via PM: alekracing.



#17 Makarias

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 09:37

PM guesses:

scheivlak: 82.996 Hamilton

alekracing: 85.369 Hamilton



#18 M2000-5

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 09:40

The circuit is way faster...



#19 Makarias

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Posted 10 December 2021 - 10:45

uh oh