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Which outsider to win the final GP?


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Poll: If Hamilton and Verstappen fail to finish, who will win in Abu Dhabi? (35 member(s) have cast votes)

If Hamilton and Verstappen fail to finish, who will win in Abu Dhabi?

  1. Valtteri Bottas (14 votes [40.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 40.00%

  2. Sergio Pérez (1 votes [2.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.86%

  3. Charles Leclerc (5 votes [14.29%])

    Percentage of vote: 14.29%

  4. Lando Norris (6 votes [17.14%])

    Percentage of vote: 17.14%

  5. Carlos Sainz (1 votes [2.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.86%

  6. Daniel Ricciardo (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  7. Pierre Gasly (1 votes [2.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.86%

  8. Fernando Alonso (1 votes [2.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.86%

  9. Esteban Ocon (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  10. Sebastian Vettel (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  11. Lance Stroll (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  12. Yuki Tsunoda (1 votes [2.86%])

    Percentage of vote: 2.86%

  13. George Russell (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  14. Kimi Räikkönen (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  15. Nicholas Latifi (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  16. Antonio Giovinazzi (2 votes [5.71%])

    Percentage of vote: 5.71%

  17. Mick Schumacher (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  18. Nikita Mazepin (3 votes [8.57%])

    Percentage of vote: 8.57%

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#1 BerniesDad

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 09:57

After watching yesterday, it's pretty clear to me that we're going to see a Prost/Senna scenario, and neither Max nor Lewis is going to reach the finish line in the last race of the season. (so Max is the WDC, but that's not what this thread is about).

The bookies tend to offer stupidly long odds on any racing driver they've never heard of, which basically means anyone outside of those two. I reckon there's a winning bet to be made on the winner of the Qatar GP.

So barring the top two, who do you think is going to take the chequers next Sunday?



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#2 PlatenGlass

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 09:59

Surely Bottas would be default favourite.

#3 Stephane

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:02

Bottas or Perez. Or anyone else if it is wild enough.



#4 messy

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:02

Boringly, Bottas. If the sea parts for him at T1 (as I suspect it might), he can sign off his Merc career with a win so exciting I'll probably switch over before the end. 



#5 Nobody

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:03

Lando baby

#6 basimi

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:04

Probably Bottas. I don’t think they will crash each other out. Didn’t happened in Jeddah and that was a tight track. Next week there is room enough for safe DRS passes.

#7 smitten

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:04

Lando baby

I would love for Norris to pick up his maiden win.



#8 jacdaniel

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:05

Now that Mercedes is so dominant, Max would be the most likely outsider to win

#9 engineblock1

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 10:28

Obviously Bottas. Perez is no where near.

It would be spicy to see a Ferrari win however, making a statement for next year.



#10 BRG

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 11:28

Given the weirdness we have seen in 2020 & 2021, it could be any of them.  Well, clearly not Mazepin, but any of the rest.  In order to provide a final sensation to counteract the inevitable Red Bull/Mercedes claptrap, a shock win for Tsunoda would do it - first Japanese winner!  



#11 goldenboy

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 11:29

Lando



#12 smitten

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 11:30

Can a mod add a poll?



#13 frosty125

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 11:30

Love it to be Lando. I could see Sainz doing it.



#14 TennisUK

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 11:32

Surely Bottas.



#15 Grayson

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 11:40

Bottas is 15/1 to 20/1 at the bookies.

 

That actually seems rather tempting... I think he's being priced with team orders in mind, but if Bottas is somehow able to get ahead of Hamilton on merit (don't laugh - it happens a few times a season!) then Merc might not actually need to swap them as Hamilton only needs to finish ahead of Verstappen to be Champion.

 

And that's before we get onto the fact that he should be favourite if the top two take each other out!



#16 BRG

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 12:18

Surely Bottas.

It is an indictment of his performance that the #2 driver of - arguably - the top team is deemed to be an 'outsider' for victory!



#17 engineblock1

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 12:22

Given the weirdness we have seen in 2020 & 2021, it could be any of them.  Well, clearly not Mazepin, but any of the rest.  In order to provide a final sensation to counteract the inevitable Red Bull/Mercedes claptrap, a shock win for Tsunoda would do it - first Japanese winner!  

 

Not expecting Mazepin but to expect Tsunoda is very unfair to Mazepin. The later is as worse



#18 Marklar

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 12:24

Bottas is 15/1 to 20/1 at the bookies.

 

That actually seems rather tempting... I think he's being priced with team orders in mind, but if Bottas is somehow able to get ahead of Hamilton on merit (don't laugh - it happens a few times a season!) then Merc might not actually need to swap them as Hamilton only needs to finish ahead of Verstappen to be Champion.

 

And that's before we get onto the fact that he should be favourite if the top two take each other out!

I already went for this, I cant believe that the bookies have not considered this



#19 Spillage

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 12:30

I'd quite like to see Leclerc win it. But if Lewis and Max collide then I'm sure it'll be Bottas.



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#20 Cornholio

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 13:41

Bottas is 15/1 to 20/1 at the bookies.

 

That actually seems rather tempting... I think he's being priced with team orders in mind, but if Bottas is somehow able to get ahead of Hamilton on merit (don't laugh - it happens a few times a season!) then Merc might not actually need to swap them as Hamilton only needs to finish ahead of Verstappen to be Champion.

 

And that's before we get onto the fact that he should be favourite if the top two take each other out!

 

Good point is that, pretty much the only scenario where a late race team order swap makes sense is in the very unlikely scenario where Bottas runs 10th, Hamilton 11th, Verstappen 12th, lower or out, and no realistic prospect of both Mercs catching and passing whoever is in 9th before the end. Even throwing Bottas onto a sub-optimal strategy to mess with RB's heads might not have its usual effect, since Max just has to cover Lewis if he is ahead (or if behind throw their own gamble regardless of what Bottas does or doesn't do)

 

In fact if anything, for all the implied talk of Suzuka 1989 and 1990, it's not out of the realms of possibility that Hamilton pulls what Senna did at Suzuka 1991 and give Bottas a thankyou parting gift, if they are in a clear 1-2.


Edited by Cornholio, 06 December 2021 - 13:44.


#21 eibyyz

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 14:44

Jerez 1997 alll over again.  Not only will Max finish against a wall, but his move will not only be unsuccessful but so cynical and ham-handed that he's excluded from the WDC.


Edited by eibyyz, 06 December 2021 - 14:45.


#22 BRG

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 14:59

Not expecting Mazepin but to expect Tsunoda is very unfair to Mazepin. The later is as worse

I am under not obligation to be fair to Nikita Mazepin.  And anyway, everyone KNOWS he will never amount to anything, especially driving a Haas,  so how is it unfair not to expect him to win in Abu Dhabi?  And I don't expect Tsunoda to win, just feel it is way overdue for a Asian driver to win in F1.  And he is FAR better than Mazepin, BTW!



#23 Sash1

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 15:08

Mazepin for a win!
Voted for him to win just because it rhymes. And would payout a shitload at the bookies.



#24 mclarensmps

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 15:13

Love it to be Lando. I could see Sainz doing it.

 

I'd be ecstatic if it was either one of the two. Sainz is the likelier. 



#25 Ferrim

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 15:18

I would say that the likelihood of neither finishing, conditional on both crashing, is 50%: 1989, 90, 94, 97.

I really hope it doesn't go down to that.

#26 Myrvold

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 15:26

Based on 1989 and 1990, Enstone won both Japanese GP's. 89 with Nannini, his first and only, then with Piquet in 90. Seeing how Ocon have won his first, it should be Alonso based on this.

Or if we go based on constructor position of the winner in 89 and 90, then the closest is McLaren (Benetton was 4th and 3rd. McLaren currently 3rd and 4th). Should be Norris winning then.'

Lastly if we go with the driver position. If we emulate 1989, then Carlos Sainz will win the race and move from 7th to 6th which is what Nannini did in 89. Or if it emulates 1990... it can't happen. As Norris would have to win, and go from 6th to 4th to copy Piquet.

 

So I'd say Leclerc.



#27 Dhillon

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 15:28

Voted for Fernando.



#28 Albaforever

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Posted 06 December 2021 - 15:33

I voted for Lando.