The standings after Saudi Arabia:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) M2000-5 1935 79 2) Bleu 1933 74 3) KWSN-DSM 1932 75 = noikeee 1932 68 5) GTA 1930 58 6) Makarias 1929 61 7) scheivlak 1926 69 8) Brawn BGP 001 1918 50 = SpaceHorseParty 1918 65 10) mark f1 1910 65 = thegforcemaybewithyou1910 48 12) Grayson 1906 64 13) jjcale 1895 66 14) sladealonso 1893 54 15) DutchQuicksilver 1874 58 16) Anderis 1866 70 17) Marklar 1859 27 18) f1paul 1832 70GTA drops from first to fifth and it's still very close at the top. Just one race to go and it's wide open!
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Lati 757,9 114,3 18 Russ 671,6 227,3 18 Sain 158,9 114,6 18 Gasl 145,9 106,2 18 Norr 122,0 86,0 16 Lecl 120,7 79,2 16 Vers 105,3 87,9 13 Ocon 104,0 70,8 9 Hami 98,7 90,2 9 Räik 88,7 25,6 9 Bott 82,8 69,8 0 Pere 80,4 69,5 0 Ricc 73,4 61,7 0 Alon 72,0 51,0 1 Vett 47,7 34,8 0 Stro 47,1 35,1 0 Tsun 43,5 25,0 0 Giov 35,1 12,0 1Pierre Gasly becomes the fourth 100% surprise of the season!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Verstappen Bottas Ocon Ricciardo Anderis 408 f1paul 421 Anderis 297 thegforcemaybewi105 Brawn BGP 001 192 f1paul 407 * Potential 396 f1paul 287 * Potential 100 KWSN-DSM 191 * Potential 394 * Forecast 389 Grayson 287 noikeee 97 Marklar 184 Grayson 392 Brawn BGP 001 384 DutchQuicksilver286 Bleu 91 Makarias 173 GTA 392 M2000-5 379 sladealonso 272 SpaceHorseParty 91 mark f1 167 SpaceHorseParty 392 scheivlak 378 Marklar 270 M2000-5 90 scheivlak 167 jjcale 387 KWSN-DSM 373 SpaceHorseParty 268 Grayson 86 sladealonso 166 * Forecast 387 * Current 371 jjcale 262 * Forecast 79 M2000-5 162 Makarias 377 Bleu 370 mark f1 249 Anderis 78 f1paul 158 sladealonso 376 jjcale 367 noikeee 248 KWSN-DSM 76 GTA 158 mark f1 372 noikeee 360 Brawn BGP 001 241 mark f1 76 Bleu 155 * Current 369 SpaceHorseParty 354 thegforcemaybewi239 * Current 75 DutchQuicksilver154 scheivlak 368 Marklar 345 scheivlak 235 DutchQuicksilver 73 jjcale 154 noikeee 366 thegforcemaybewi344 Bleu 234 Makarias 72 Grayson 153 DutchQuicksilver365 Makarias 337 * Potential 233 sladealonso 65 Anderis 149 M2000-5 365 Grayson 335 * Forecast 218 Marklar 62 noikeee 148 Bleu 362 GTA 335 KWSN-DSM 215 scheivlak 58 * Potential 144 KWSN-DSM 361 sladealonso 330 M2000-5 213 jjcale 56 SpaceHorseParty 143 thegforcemaybewi354 mark f1 325 GTA 210 GTA 48 thegforcemaybewi143 Brawn BGP 001 348 DutchQuicksilver316 Makarias 208 Brawn BGP 001 41 * Forecast 125 Marklar 335 Anderis 290 * Current 208 f1paul 33 * Current 119Last time Ricciardo was listed in one of these tables he still had a chance at a 100% surprise...
Guesses on P6-P10:
Gasly Leclerc Sainz Giovinazzi Norris * Potential 128 GTA 201 * Potential 174 * Potential 28 * Potential 178 * Forecast 108 * Potential 185 * Forecast 156 GTA 24 M2000-5 177 * Current 103 * Forecast 168 * Current 149 Marklar 14 * Forecast 160 KWSN-DSM 96 Anderis 160 GTA 129 scheivlak 14 Brawn BGP 001 157 mark f1 96 * Current 160 thegforcemaybewi115 sladealonso 13 * Current 153 scheivlak 85 Bleu 149 Grayson 105 Anderis 12 Makarias 140 DutchQuicksilver 84 Makarias 141 Makarias 102 DutchQuicksilver 9 Grayson 134 sladealonso 81 SpaceHorseParty 139 M2000-5 101 f1paul 9 jjcale 130 Brawn BGP 001 79 Brawn BGP 001 137 Anderis 100 Bleu 8 noikeee 128 thegforcemaybewi 77 Marklar 135 Bleu 96 KWSN-DSM 8 Marklar 126 Marklar 75 sladealonso 135 KWSN-DSM 96 noikeee 8 sladealonso 126 noikeee 68 thegforcemaybewi134 mark f1 96 jjcale 6 f1paul 125 GTA 67 DutchQuicksilver129 noikeee 96 SpaceHorseParty 6 mark f1 124 f1paul 65 scheivlak 129 SpaceHorseParty 96 mark f1 5 DutchQuicksilver120 Makarias 65 Grayson 124 jjcale 90 Brawn BGP 001 4 SpaceHorseParty 119 SpaceHorseParty 62 noikeee 124 scheivlak 86 Grayson 4 Bleu 116 M2000-5 60 jjcale 121 f1paul 85 M2000-5 4 GTA 114 Grayson 57 KWSN-DSM 119 sladealonso 77 Makarias 4 Anderis 111 Bleu 55 mark f1 115 DutchQuicksilver 76 * Current 3 scheivlak 110 jjcale 52 M2000-5 99 Brawn BGP 001 74 * Forecast 3 thegforcemaybewi105 Anderis 47 f1paul 96 Marklar 68 thegforcemaybewi 2 KWSN-DSM 96Nobody guessed Giovinazzi at 3 points. Seems silly right now.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- M2000-5 1982,2 -9,4 GTA 1981,0 -6,6 SpaceHorseParty 1972,4 10,6 Bleu 1970,3 1,9 noikeee 1968,8 2,4 Brawn BGP 001 1968,2 -6,9 scheivlak 1966,7 -3,7 KWSN-DSM 1965,3 -3,1 Grayson 1960,4 10,6 Makarias 1960,3 -9,8 mark f1 1947,2 -0,2 thegforcemaybewithyou1946,7 1,3 jjcale 1945,8 1,3 sladealonso 1933,7 -7,4 Anderis 1916,3 19,4 DutchQuicksilver 1907,7 -3,7 f1paul 1897,3 5,2 Marklar 1892,7 -7,4This is just too close to call with one round to go!