471 replies to this topic

[EauBleu]

Let's try a last lap discussion away from the controversy. Let's just say the Latifi accident happened a few laps earlier, all backmarkers were unlapped, and the safety car was in the lap thereafter. So all rules fulfilled and one lap to go in similar circumstances.

Could Lewis still have won it?

Personally I feel he was lining up to get as good of an exit as possible for the first straight, as he absolutely didn't expect Max to overtake there. He got surprised. But what would have happened if he had blocked Max in that corner? Judging by the Perez defense earlier in the race (with a somewhat similar tyre delta), he just might have pulled it off.

What do you think?

[Stephane]

He did not and Max won. That's also what would have happened.

[AlexPrime]

Yes could have, he was close to a repass actually. It was a very good battle.

[Baddoer]

One could argue Max Verstappen chose to dive into T5, to avoid Lewis cutting chicane again.

[Augurk]

I actually thought "what are you doing Max" going at it in T5 already. 

But that might actually have been the best way to make the move stick. Such a brilliant racer, threw Lewis off his game first opportunity. 

 

Even with worse traction Lewis came really close on both straights so I could see a scenario play out where Max would've waited til the end of the straight to do it, but in doing so giving Lewis a much better chance of retaking the lead on the run to T9. 

[Requiem84]

Let's try a last lap discussion away from the controversy. Let's just say the Latifi accident happened a few laps earlier, all backmarkers were unlapped, and the safety car was in the lap thereafter. So all rules fulfilled and one lap to go in similar circumstances.

Could Lewis still have won it?

Personally I feel he was lining up to get as good of an exit as possible for the first straight, as he absolutely didn't expect Max to overtake there. He got surprised. But what would have happened if he had blocked Max in that corner? Judging by the Perez defense earlier in the race (with a somewhat similar tyre delta), he just might have pulled it off.

What do you think?

 

It would be interesting to see how it would have played out if Lewis would not have been overtaken into the 'hairpin' onto the first straight.

 

Undoubtedly, he'd defend the inside going towards the chicane and would have tried to push Max wide into the chicane. Max would go wide into the chicane and likely replicate Lewis' move of Lap 1: floor it and argue he would have been pushed of.

 

Now Max would stay ahead for the rest of the lap. And luckily for us, we would have a 150 page topic about Max Verstappen's move in the chicane discussing whether it should have been penalized or not. An appeal by Mercedes and potentially 5 seconds penalty for Max etc etc. 

 

The key element in Verstappen making it work in the last lap, was his move into the hairpin which Lewis never ever seemed to expect. Imo it was a very significant mistake actually, which has been largely ignored because of.. well everything else. 

[PayasYouRace]

There isn’t much of a premise for this thread. If everything was set up the same why wood we expect anything different?

[Risil]

I've edited the thread title to make it a bit clearer why this thread is distinctive. 

[jee]

The only thing he could have done is crash both out of the race, he would have been WDC.

[CSF]

Yes Lewis could have defended better. He didn't defend at all. It was strange. 

[Risil]

I suppose Hamilton's tyres were nowhere near as fresh or sticky as Max's, and he couldn't risk a collision.

[Marklar]

Had he defended the inside into the hairpin his line for the next two straights would have been catastrophic with this traction to defend: Max would have swallowed him easily. He gave himself the best chance the way he did it.

Only thing he could have done was pushing Max off the track and pray that the stewards dont do anything lol

Edited by Marklar, 17 December 2021 - 11:49.

[OneAndOnly]

Hardly. 40 laps old hard tire vs fresh soft tire is too much. If Max drove Haas it would be damn hard. I think he did the best he could.

[MaroF1]

Had he defended the inside into the hairpin his line for the next two straights would have been catastrophic with this traction to defend: Max would have swallowed him easily. He gave himself the best chance the way he did it.

Only thing he could have done was pushing Max off the track and pray that the stewards dont do anything lol

 

Not sure that Max would "swallow" him against that rocket engine. Max had the grip in the corners but the 2 places to get by were after the long straights, so maybe Hamilton had a half chance if he defended better. But he didn't and Max won.

[Marklar]

Not sure that Max would "swallow" him against that rocket engine. Max had the grip in the corners but the 2 places to get by were after the long straights, so maybe Hamilton had a half chance if he defended better. But he didn't and Max won.

RB had straight line speed last weekend. Easily

also the grip advantage allowed him to lunge from faaar back and still make a clean pass (unlike Lap 1 where it pushed him too wide), he would have always passed him somewhere unless Hamilton plays dirty

Edited by Marklar, 17 December 2021 - 11:55.

[smitten]

Add in Verstappen's weaving along the straight, and I don't think so.

[Diablobb81]

I suppose Hamilton's tyres were nowhere near as fresh or sticky as Max's, and he couldn't risk a collision.

There was a topic on reddit that Lewis would have won if they collided. Due to lapped cars he would have finished 10th.

[Risil]

There was a topic on reddit that Lewis would have won if they collided. Due to lapped cars he would have finished 10th.

 

LOL. I wonder if Lewis was aware of that.

 

(In EauBleu's fantasy scenario though, all backmarkers are unlapped so presumably non-finishes would've dropped both Lewis and Max outside the points.)

[Marklar]

There was a topic on reddit that Lewis would have won if they collided. Due to lapped cars he would have finished 10th.

I doubt he knew but that would have bern very funny because I doubt anyone did!

imagine the scenes

[TomNokoe]

Thought it was admirable of Lewis to turn out from the collision at turn 5 and still fight a losing battle until turn 9.

[Gareth]

Had he defended the inside into the hairpin his line for the next two straights would have been catastrophic with this traction to defend: Max would have swallowed him easily. He gave himself the best chance the way he did it.

That was my take on it, too.

 

As it was, he got a better exit so was able to put pressure on for the T7/T8 chicane and put Max off line, which then gave him an outside (in both senses) shot in to T9.

 

Had he compromised his exit from the hairpin, I think it would have been easy pickings. Max's exit would have been way better from both tyres and racing line, and he had a straightline speed advantage too.

[FortiFord]

Let's try a last lap discussion away from the controversy. Let's just say the Latifi accident happened a few laps earlier, all backmarkers were unlapped, and the safety car was in the lap thereafter. So all rules fulfilled and one lap to go in similar circumstances.

Could Lewis still have won it?

Personally I feel he was lining up to get as good of an exit as possible for the first straight, as he absolutely didn't expect Max to overtake there. He got surprised. But what would have happened if he had blocked Max in that corner? Judging by the Perez defense earlier in the race (with a somewhat similar tyre delta), he just might have pulled it off.

What do you think?

 

I think he was limited in what he could do. He could have defended into T5, which would have compromised his exit. At which point, Max either breezes past him on the straight or Lewis has to get ultra defensive into 6 and 7, and then Max will end with a very good run at him going into 9. 

Edited by FortiFord, 17 December 2021 - 12:08.

[Requiem84]

Had he defended the inside into the hairpin his line for the next two straights would have been catastrophic with this traction to defend: Max would have swallowed him easily. He gave himself the best chance the way he did it.

Only thing he could have done was pushing Max off the track and pray that the stewards dont do anything lol

 

If you look at the exit of T5, you can actually say Verstappen already had a much better exit than Lewis (most likely because of the softs and because Lewis' line was now heavily compromised anyway by Verstappen blocking him into T5). 

 

What he could have done better is covering the inside more at the entry point, let his car run wide into the corner and then still have a 80% decent exit. 

[FortiFord]

That was my take on it, too.

 

As it was, he got a better exit so was able to put pressure on for the T7/T8 chicane and put Max off line, which then gave him an outside (in both senses) shot in to T9.

 

Had he compromised his exit from the hairpin, I think it would have been easy pickings. Max's exit would have been way better from both tyres and racing line, and he had a straightline speed advantage too.

 

Agreed, and the conversation would be along the lines of "Why did Lewis defend thin air going into T5?" (Ala Fisi in Suzuka 2005). 

[Shade]

The only thing he could have done is crash both out of the race, he would have been WDC.

But the FL counts only for the top 10 finishers.

[Requiem84]

But the FL counts only for the top 10 finishers.

 

As mentioned above, everyone outside the top 10 was lapped. Meaning that if Lewis would have dnf'ed in L58, he would have ended on P10. 

[ANF]

Hardly. 40 laps old hard tire vs fresh soft tire is too much. If Max drove Haas it would be damn hard. I think he did the best he could.

That's why pitting Hamilton on lap 14 was a mistake. The average pit stop lap for the seven other medium runners was 23.3. Bottas didn't pit until lap 30. (Russell, the eighth medium runner, retired on lap 26 before he had changed tyres.)

[derstatic]

Very used hards vs very sticky softs would always have this outcome. Initially I was surprised Verstappen chose the hairpin, but  afterwards it makes complete sense. No DRS and controlling the run up to the chicane. Only way to defend that T5 dive was probably to just close the door and both are out. And that would lead to another controversy. Did Max recklessly divebomb Lewis? Did Lewis do a Schumacher '97 on Max as the title slipped from his grips? 

[Baddoer]

As mentioned above, everyone outside the top 10 was lapped. Meaning that if Lewis would have dnf'ed in L58, he would have ended on P10. 

If Lewis DNF'ed he would have finished P11. If both Verstappend and Hamilton DNF, they would have ended P10 and P11 and exact order depends on where they would have stopped on track I believe.

[smitten]

If Lewis DNF'ed he would have finished P11. If both Verstappend and Hamilton DNF, they would have ended P10 and P11 and exact order depends on where they would have stopped on track I believe.

Unless they'd caused a red flag, in which case they'd have counted back to the end of lap 56(?)

[Gareth]

If Lewis DNF'ed he would have finished P11. If both Verstappend and Hamilton DNF, they would have ended P10 and P11 and exact order depends on where they would have stopped on track I believe.

Agree with the above, save for one entirely esoteric point for interest: I think it would have been judged on last timing loops each of them crossed, rather than where they stopped?

 

Imagine they go through through loop 1 with driver A ahead of B, they crash and come to a halt with driver B clearly visibly ahead of driver A, but without crossing another timing loop. Now that would be a fun thread.

[Stephane]

If Lewis DNF'ed he would have finished P11. If both Verstappend and Hamilton DNF, they would have ended P10 and P11 and exact order depends on where they would have stopped on track I believe.

Last completed lap.

[JustNotFastEnough]

Hamilton was compromised on 39 lap hards, vs new softs that had done a qualifying run. Could he have defended the inside more aggressively? Certainly yes, but that would have compromised his exit on worn hards. I would have shut the door on Max, and cried that he came from so far back, it was unexpected. Dirty Max, would not have been so sporting in my opinion. I'm just glad Hamilton never attempted a desperation Mad-Max dive-bomb. Bumping, grinding, hitting and wrecking other cars is for Nascar. Hamilton lost with grace, despite being utterly shafted. 

[prty]

Had he defended the inside into the hairpin his line for the next two straights would have been catastrophic with this traction to defend: Max would have swallowed him easily. He gave himself the best chance the way he did it.

Only thing he could have done was pushing Max off the track and pray that the stewards dont do anything lol

 

Depends, he could have parked the car at the apex, so that Verstappen got a bad exit. Actually Verstappen unintentionally did that during the pass and this is kind of why Hamilton couldn't get a better exit to repass in the straight. It's like if Hamilton gave up a bit.

[Gareth]

Last completed lap.

Thanks, hadn't appreciated that. The below was incorrect, then.

 

Agree with the above, save for one entirely esoteric point for interest: I think it would have been judged on last timing loops each of them crossed, rather than where they stopped?

 

Imagine they go through through loop 1 with driver A ahead of B, they crash and come to a halt with driver B clearly visibly ahead of driver A, but without crossing another timing loop. Now that would be a fun thread.

[Timorous]

I think he was limited in what he could do. He could have defended into T5, which would have compromised his exit. At which point, Max either breezes past him on the straight or Lewis has to get ultra defensive into 6 and 7, and then Max will end with a very good run at him going into 9. 

 

That is my view as well.

 

Really it was all about T9.

 

Hamilton did what he could IMO. I think he should have tried to dive up the inside of T9, Max left a tiny gap and given the circumstances it was worth a punt IMO. Even so I think Max would have turned in and it would be another silverstone situation but there was no way he was getting the move done around the outside.

 

In some ways he also did a bit too good of a job exiting T5. It may have been marginally better to be behind going into T6 and dummy the inside. It may have forced Max to defend the inside like Brazil T1 and that may have compromised his line more going to T9. Ham also may have had a better exit as well.

 

All really fine margins though.

[Timorous]

Depends, he could have parked the car at the apex, so that Verstappen got a bad exit. Actually Verstappen unintentionally did that during the pass and this is kind of why Hamilton couldn't get a better exit to repass in the straight. It's like if Hamilton gave up a bit.

 

Parking at the apex would not work. Hamilton may have been able to usher him to the edge of the track but if Ham defends the inside into T5 I expect Max just carries far more speed around the outside.

 

The other best option Hamilton had was to simply turn in and let a collision happen. Max would have been behind at that point and it would be front wing with bargeboard area so Ham may have come out of it better, no guarantee though. I am glad Ham did not go for the dirty option though.

[noikeee]

There was a topic on reddit that Lewis would have won if they collided. Due to lapped cars he would have finished 10th.

This is my favourite alternate ending.

[jjcale]

Ridiculous thread idea ... defending on 40+ lap old Hards against new softs is impossible.

 

LH should have just parked up and walked off the circuit in protest rather than be part of the farce.

[Rediscoveryx]

He would have needed a miracle to stay in front. The only thing he could do was to make life as hard as possible for Verstappen and hope that Max would make a mistake at some point.

[Afterburner]

This is my favourite alternate ending.

Mine too, not the least of which because it would have come as little surprise after all the fan-fiction that preceded it:

• Verstappen and Hamilton undergo an intense, season-long fight with multiple on-track collisions
• Championship lead swings back and forth almost race by race as the calendar winds down
• Mercedes reverses the pace advantage in the last races to close up the championship

• Title contenders enter the final race tied, with Verstappen having the advantage on countback
• Hamilton dominates the race, championship looks to be done and dusted until an SC in the final 5 laps
• Masi burns the rulebook and only unlaps some cars to give us a last-minute SC restart and a 1-lap duel to the finish
• A collision between the title contenders on the final lap gives it to Hamilton by 1 point after he's classified 10th on the road, and Verstappen 11th

 

We almost made it!

[FortiFord]

Ridiculous thread idea ... defending on 40+ lap old Hards against new softs is impossible.

 

Largely agree, 

 

It's a bit like asking if Verstappen could have done more to defend in Hungary 2019 or Spain 2021. The tyre delta meant there was nothing the defending driver could do. 

[alframsey]

I really think he left himself so exposed when Max did go for the overtake, Lewis left acres of room on the inside and was inviting a lunge. I think he had it in him to still defend and win and just have to look at how Lewis came back at Max twice, on those old hard tyres, and Max defended a lot harder than Lewis did. I was screaming at the telly when Lewis left that gap, so wide and inviting. 

[alframsey]

Ridiculous thread idea ... defending on 40+ lap old Hards against new softs is impossible.

 

LH should have just parked up and walked off the circuit in protest rather than be part of the farce.

I still think that he could have defended better when that move was made, regardless of everything else. 

[timmy bolt]

Also shouldn't be forgotten that the 40 lap old hards would take an age to get back up to temperature.

[macjim]

Mine too, not the least of which because it would have come as little surprise after all the fan-fiction that preceded it:

• Verstappen and Hamilton undergo an intense, season-long fight with multiple on-track collisions
• Championship lead swings back and forth almost race by race as the calendar winds down
• Mercedes reverses the pace advantage in the last races to close up the championship

• Title contenders enter the final race tied, with Verstappen having the advantage on countback
• Hamilton dominates the race, championship looks to be done and dusted until an SC in the final 5 laps
• Masi burns the rulebook and only unlaps some cars to give us a last-minute SC restart and a 1-lap duel to the finish
• A collision between the title contenders on the final lap gives it to Hamilton by 1 point after he's classified 10th on the road, and Verstappen 11th

 

We almost made it!

 

Now that would have melted the servers!

[timmy bolt]

I still think that he could have defended better when that move was made, regardless of everything else.

It's not quite as simple as looking at one corner in isolation though. Every time you go off line you hurt your exit. He could have easily defended the inside of turn 5 but max wouldnt have gone for the move and would instead have just used the grip to get a much much better exit and sail past.

[alframsey]

It's not quite as simple as looking at one corner in isolation though. Every time you go off line you hurt your exit. He could have easily defended the inside of turn 5 but max wouldnt have gone for the move and would instead have just used the grip to get a much much better exit and sail past.

Yeah true, I think I am still a bit gutted with what transpired and I am running all different scenarios through my head. The last ap of the race was such a blur for me, that sinking feeling with each passing corner. I really was surprised LEwis was able to come back at Max too, massively surprised.

[William Hunt]

No, he had no chance on 40 laps old hard tyres compared to fresh soft tyres.

[Colbul1]

Is there really a need for this thread?