There’s no need to speculate, the language in the FIA”s statement about the commission is already patently clear.
1. “Nothing to see here, move right along” didn’t work, so we’ll open an investigation to understand why everyone else misunderstood us.
2. The reputation of the FIA and the legitimacy of Max’s championship has been tarnished, but only because everyone else has misunderstood, so we need to investigate and spit & polish so we can bring our self-perceived shine back on our tarnished reputation.
3. The new FIA president Mohammed bin Sulayem has already said that it’s likely Lewis will be punished for missing the FIA gala because, in his exact words “rules are rules”. On the face of it, that is one of the most hypocritical mealy mouthed statements possible, but the messaging is clear. We will not even act in the slightest bit contrite or in a way that reflects our guilt, and instead we will double down and pretend that there was no error, no mistake, no foul, no corruption, no problem on our part by getting on the front foot and enforcing that rules are rules.
It is unfortunately, a bit like the policeman who applies to work in the child sexual assault division, himself putting away pedophiles only to cover up for the fact that he is one himself. This isn’t a hypothetical, it’s occurred many times. Recently an investigative journalist who used to chase after and harass pedophiles on camera for their behaviour was himself caught and convicted as a pedophile. It’s a common tactic, pretend to stand against the very problem that you yourself are guilty of in order to work perception towards your favour. Rules are rules.
Nothing will come from this commission. It is worse than lip-service or a token gesture. It is intended to temporarily appease Mercedes, Lewis and the broader public while it will seek to attempt to wash away the stains it caused rather than truly attempt to prevent the staining that its hands caused in the first place. Rinse and repeat.