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WDC 2022 - Will we get a battle?


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#1 jacdaniel

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:20

Well, it looked like we might get a tasty Charles/Max battle this season but those 2 DNFs for Max/RB are huge in terms of the WDC. 46 points down already with a car that appears slower and less reliable is not ideal at all. The DNFs are such a shame to see.

Sainz and Perez are solid enough drivers but I don't see either really challenging for the title. Mercedes are hanging in there but their pace is poor. Hard to see them turning that around quickly.

I think we might get some exciting races but can see Charles running away with this very quickly unless something drastic happens.
I have no problem with Charles winning, but I hope he has to work hard for it.

What are people's thoughts? Very early days of course but good to discuss the WDC.

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#2 PlayboyRacer

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:24

Yes. It's a marathon.

Didn't last year teach you anything?

#3 Disgrace

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:26

I think the first big developments will give us a better idea. If Red Bull can repeat what they did in 2009 - wiping out Brawn's advantage within a few races - then absolutely.



#4 carlb5253

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:27

I think this is Ferrari and Charles’ year.

He seems to have Max’s number pretty hard.

Max doesn’t fight him the same as he did Lewis.

I think theres some psychological block there for Max from when they raced against each other before.

#5 Cyanide

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:31

No. Season over.

Mercedes doomed, Red Bull failed, Ferrari supreme. It was evident from race one. No, in fact, everybody already knew since testing. Or Abu Dhabi, I don't know, whichever sounds more dramatic.

#6 TheFish

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:31

The hope comes from the fact it’s new rules and upgrades should be the strongest during this phase of cars.

In reality though, Merc are too slow and Red Bull are too unreliable. Could be pretty much finished in a few races time.

#7 Izzyeviel

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:34

I hope not, I want Ferrari to win easily. Unless Merc can enter the battle...



#8 Marklar

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 11:36

If Red Bull gets their reliability sorted it's a loooooong way from over.

If not it depends all on Merc to sort their car out.

Then there is Ferrari themselves: reliability, development race etc

So there are still enough variables

Edited by Marklar, 10 April 2022 - 11:37.


#9 jacdaniel

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:00

Hopefully the next few races will mix things up a bit

#10 SenorSjon

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:03

I think this is Ferrari and Charles’ year.

He seems to have Max’s number pretty hard.

Max doesn’t fight him the same as he did Lewis.

I think theres some psychological block there for Max from when they raced against each other before.

The Ferrari is faster, more reliable and with the first GP with higher track temps, we've seen the RB chew through tires more than the Ferrari as well.

The gap between Merc and RB was smaller for most of last season.

Max needs 8 victories if Leclerc follows him home with fastest laps.

Edited by SenorSjon, 10 April 2022 - 12:04.


#11 SilverArrow31

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:06

It is a very nice lead to have..I don't think in Ferrari's wildest dreams they would of imagined such a start... but we are 3 races in, 20 to go, I think the only thing we can assume with some certainty is the champion will be from Ferrari, Red bull or Mercedes (Sorry Mclaren)



#12 SilverArrow31

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:07

The Ferrari is faster, more reliable and with the first GP with higher track temps, we've seen the RB chew through tires more than the Ferrari as well.

The gap between Merc and RB was smaller for most of last season.

Max needs 8 victories if Leclerc follows him home with fastest laps.

 

Ouch! that last line kinda puts the lead Leclerc has in persective....



#13 jacdaniel

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:15

The Ferrari is faster, more reliable and with the first GP with higher track temps, we've seen the RB chew through tires more than the Ferrari as well.

The gap between Merc and RB was smaller for most of last season.

Max needs 8 victories if Leclerc follows him home with fastest laps.


Max was cruising last season until Silverstone and Hungary so things can change quickly.

But of course the biggest concern for RB right now has to be fixing these reliability issues and trying to find some more performance.

The next 3 or 4 races are crucial. If Charles stays this dominant then it will be curtains.

#14 PlayboyRacer

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:19

Max was cruising last season until Silverstone and Hungary so things can change quickly.

All it takes is for one DNF to happen to Charles - with Max winning that race - and we're having a totally different conversation.

And it was only at the previous race where Red Bull took pole and won, with a slight advantage over Ferrari. Things will swing back and forth guaranteed.

#15 Casey

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:23

I just saw the race , it looks like Merc and RB going all in last year is costing them dearly this year .

 

I hope for more battles and race wins further up the season but the WDC is probably for Ferrari .



#16 Beri

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:26

Yes. It's a marathon.
Didn't last year teach you anything?


Who will have to do it? Mercedes has to find a second with an upgrade. Verstappen has a deficit that is almost 50 points. And Ferrari haven't really upgraded their car yet, so there is a a lot of development time and budget allocation left for them to spend. Whilst Red Bull and Mercedes both have brought a (somewhat) B spec already at the Bahrain test. Ferrari will have to drop the ball massively in order to make this marathon exciting. But for now, with their A spec car, they lead the pack and are more than 30 points off in both championships.

#17 Arundo

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:31

My mood says no but that will probably get better in a week or so :) 

 

But yeah I still think we can get a battle and I hope we do, Redbull needs to sort out the reliability. I tend to lean towards that Australia was a bit of a outliner for the race pace for Redbull. But then again maybe the first two races were. 

Anyway I hope to see Redbull and Mercedes up there this season, I wouldnt mind a Ferrari WCC / WDC but atleast I want to see a fight. 



#18 Beri

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:38

I just saw the race , it looks like Merc and RB going all in last year is costing them dearly this year .
 
I hope for more battles and race wins further up the season but the WDC is probably for Ferrari .


I can't say I agree. For both it has a different reason. Two DNFs for Verstappen. Of which one race he had the pace and the other one being completely off pace. But those two DNFs should have bagged 36 points. Bringing his total up to 61 points and that would be a 10 point deficit towards Leclerc. So that's not really dropping the ball in my book. The reliability is a major issue. Not the skill or pace either Red Bull or Verstappen has.
Mercedes, on the other hand, has gone a completely different route in terms of car design. Which left the car vulnerable to porpoising. Should they fix that, I still can't see them gaining a second per lap, but that would bring them closer none the less.

All in all I can't say both teams fighting for the title last season, has caused the current issues they are facing.

#19 Spillage

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:53

At the moment it feels like we might get quite a few close races but not a close championship. Red Bull are clearly fast enough to challenge but they're not fast enough to overcome significant reliability issues. And so far Leclerc is driving beautifully.

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#20 pdac

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 12:53

Well, it looked like we might get a tasty Charles/Max battle this season but those 2 DNFs for Max/RB are huge in terms of the WDC. 46 points down already with a car that appears slower and less reliable is not ideal at all. The DNFs are such a shame to see.

Sainz and Perez are solid enough drivers but I don't see either really challenging for the title. Mercedes are hanging in there but their pace is poor. Hard to see them turning that around quickly.

I think we might get some exciting races but can see Charles running away with this very quickly unless something drastic happens.
I have no problem with Charles winning, but I hope he has to work hard for it.

What are people's thoughts? Very early days of course but good to discuss the WDC.

 

If you think the answer is no and it bothers you, then simply stop following now and find something better to do with your time. You can always pick things up again in October, if it actually looks like it's not a one horse race.



#21 PayasYouRace

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:05

These sorts of points gaps can disappear very quickely, especially when there are still twenty races to go.

 

I posted this in the race thread. Last year, going into Silverstone, Lewis had to recover 2.46 points per race on Verstappen to make it equal into the last race. As we stand, Verstappen has to make up 2.3 points per race to equal Leclerc.

 

We could end up with Leclerc winning the championship comfortably. But it would only take a couple of DNFs for him for things to close right back up.



#22 tourister46a

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:12

Anything can happen and they are still 20 races to go!

 

If you are asking for my best prediction though, then, no, there will not be much of a championship battle at the top. There will be a lot of interesting races where Sainz, Red Bull or even Mercedes will be in the fight, and that's what I am looking forward to.



#23 Ali623

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:16

Imagine it rains or something at Imola, Leclerc bins it and Max wins, gap is suddenly down to 21 points. Max goes on a further 3 race winning streak, Leclerc takes a couple of P2s and a P3. Max retakes the championship lead...

 

Random example, but it's far from over.



#24 F1 Mike

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:19

I think Mercedes will get on top of things after a few upgrades and they'll win some races. Feels like a Leclerc world championship, but i keep thinking of Brawn 2009 campaign. Looked absolutely unstoppable but things can change quickly

#25 BRK

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:22

I think we will definitely get several battles between the two of them. As for the WDC, it's too early to say after race 3 of a 23 race season. Red Bull have been right up there on pace, reliability isn't the easiest thing to fix, but the championship could be thrown wide open if we have 1-2 chaotic races like last year. 



#26 Calum

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:27

I don't see Brawn GP as comparable to this year's Ferrari!

Both started well, obviously. But even with Ferrari limited by budget cap they will be able to chuck way more at development than Brawn GP could in-season!



#27 thefinalapex

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:29

I think Mercedes will get on top of things after a few upgrades and they'll win some races. Feels like a Leclerc world championship, but i keep thinking of Brawn 2009 campaign. Looked absolutely unstoppable but things can change quickly


Yes but brawn, as per nick fry’s book, didn’t have the money to really develop the car, Ferrari doesn’t have that problem.

Edited by thefinalapex, 10 April 2022 - 13:29.


#28 George Costanza

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:30

Yes I think so. Red Bull will sort it out and when they do, they will be right in the mix. Max is rightfully upset but Red Bull will sort it out like 2009 against Brawn...

#29 TomNokoe

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:30

Yes, Ferrari could be 3rd/4th quickest by summer. Loooong season.

#30 Beri

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:32

I think Mercedes will get on top of things after a few upgrades and they'll win some races. Feels like a Leclerc world championship, but i keep thinking of Brawn 2009 campaign. Looked absolutely unstoppable but things can change quickly


And this scenario does still need a DNF by both Leclerc and/or Ferrari. Ferrari is quite bulletproof this season. No breakdowns during testing or at any point in the season (yet). And Leclerc only having one DNF during last season. Being bowled off the track by the shenanigans by both Bottas and Stroll in the first corner at Hungary. For Leclercs last real error, we would have to go to Monaco last year. Which resulted in a DNS.
So it is almost wishing for the most impossible thing.

#31 Beri

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:36

Yes, Ferrari could be 3rd/4th quickest by summer. Loooong season.


As I've said before:

Who will have to do it? Mercedes has to find a second with an upgrade. Verstappen has a deficit that is almost 50 points. And Ferrari haven't really upgraded their car yet, so there is a a lot of development time and budget allocation left for them to spend. Whilst Red Bull and Mercedes both have brought a (somewhat) B spec already at the Bahrain test. Ferrari will have to drop the ball massively in order to make this marathon exciting. But for now, with their A spec car, they lead the pack and are more than 30 points off in both championships.


I can't see that happen without any sort of brain fade at Ferrari. I'd almost bet my house on that. Almost. Because it isn't that Ferrari has shown anything the past 10 years that would make it a certainty they will not fudge up.

#32 Marklar

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:38

didnt Lewis Hamilton gained in 8 races 65 points on Rosberg back in 2016 after he had after the first 4 races a gap of 43 points largely caused by bad reliability? Was a pure two horse race so much harder on paper to gain points in theory and it didnt even need reliability issues from Nico's side iirc.

Its such a long season even if it looks grim atm for RB

#33 Nemo1965

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:38

My impression: Ferrari will win it but Red Bull will harry them till the end. Max is just too good and too tenacious to give up, Perez has found a good form and Sainz is very good but not good enough to be a buffer between Leclerc and Max (and the difference between Ferrari and Red Bull is too small to give him that chance anyway).

#34 Sid04

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:45

I already said this after Ferrari's performance in Bahrain that this championship is going to be probably like 2009. Charles has quickly relegated Sainz as his number 2 sorts..RB does not seem to have ultimate pace nor the reliability. Their lead driver is not particularly happy with the balance.

For Merc less said the better. If people think they will catch Ferrari they are delusional. They have lost 8-9 tenths in race pace to Ferrari in all 3 races, as good as they are this is too big a gap.



#35 dia6olo

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:47

With the assumption that Mercedes are out of it and only RB are in a position to challenge, it appeared to me and it's something I pointed out even after the first race that RB seemed to be racing their cars very close to their limit or a lot closer to it than Ferrari were.

3 races in and that's exactly how I still see it which could explain the RB's fragility too.

If that really is the case then as things stand there's more left in the Ferrari than the RB, it has appeared so far that no matter what RB do Ferrari are always able to respond.

 

So with regards to "Will we get a battle?", if this had not been a new concept year my answer would be a flat NO, Ferrari/Leclerc are too strong.

The fact that we are running under a new concept and are therefore likely to have a fairly sharp development period which can quickly shuffle things around makes this a lot more difficult to call this early.

That said, the Ferrari looks to be very strong in all sorts of conditions and tracks so it's not going to be easily challenged, especially when you consider they themselves are not exactly running optimally with their own porpoising issues...



#36 YoungGun

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:49

If someone would have suggested at the start of the season that Russell would be within striking distance of the WDC,  I would have laughed. Unfortunate for Max and Sainz but I am not counting anyone out.



#37 Bartonz20let

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:51

Ask me after all 3 big teams have made the first round of upgrades.

At this point, it's hard to see past Ferrari but it's too early in both the season and the regulations to know for sure.

Ferrari's concept could be a dead end, Merc could be sat on a beast, well probably know for sure in another 4 races or so.

Edited by Bartonz20let, 10 April 2022 - 13:51.


#38 MaroF1

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 13:51

As Marklar said Rosberg had a 43 point lead going into round 6 in 2016 and barely won on the final lap in Abu Dhabi (thanks to Malaysia). We can have this conversation around summer but right now it's all to play for, Ferrari looks quick and reliable but one wet race (Germany 2018) and lapse of judgment can quickly turn it around. I trust Charles and the team but betting against Newey isn't the smartest thing, and the Mercs should never be discounted.



#39 danmills

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 14:02

I'd say it's over, Ferrari have got this. Ferrari aren't suddenly going to drop pace or reliability. Even if its even stevens with just a few more wins for Charles going forwards, with the lead advantage already Charles can cruise the rest of the season after the summer break with P2s / P3s. Nobody bar Max is a threat.

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#40 Burtros

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 14:10

20 races to go but it’s all over???

All to play for. Red Bull need to sort their reliability but to say it’s over is absolutely ridiculous.

#41 SenorSjon

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 14:29

With the assumption that Mercedes are out of it and only RB are in a position to challenge, it appeared to me and it's something I pointed out even after the first race that RB seemed to be racing their cars very close to their limit or a lot closer to it than Ferrari were.
3 races in and that's exactly how I still see it which could explain the RB's fragility too.
If that really is the case then as things stand there's more left in the Ferrari than the RB, it has appeared so far that no matter what RB do Ferrari are always able to respond.

So with regards to "Will we get a battle?", if this had not been a new concept year my answer would be a flat NO, Ferrari/Leclerc are too strong.
The fact that we are running under a new concept and are therefore likely to have a fairly sharp development period which can quickly shuffle things around makes this a lot more difficult to call this early.
That said, the Ferrari looks to be very strong in all sorts of conditions and tracks so it's not going to be easily challenged, especially when you consider they themselves are not exactly running optimally with their own porpoising issues...


Out of 6 chances, RB DNFed 3 times due to their fuel system, hardly a part that has to be 'run hard' and that shouldn't fail in F1.

#42 ARTGP

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 14:31

People are just being dramatic.

 

It's a 20 race season from here. 

 

If Ferrari maintain this pace advantage and reliability with no on track accidents and no bad luck, then obviously they will win it all.  But that is a tall order and nothing is guaranteed.  They'll have to work hard to maintain their advantage and stay out of trouble. 


Edited by ARTGP, 10 April 2022 - 14:32.


#43 YoungGun

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 14:55

People are just being dramatic.

 

It's a 20 race season from here. 

 

If Ferrari maintain this pace advantage and reliability with no on track accidents and no bad luck, then obviously they will win it all.  But that is a tall order and nothing is guaranteed.  They'll have to work hard to maintain their advantage and stay out of trouble. 

 

Ferrari I am positive has a tight leash on LeClerc off rack considering COVID still poses an issue. 



#44 Anderis

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 15:10

People are just being dramatic.

Yeah, the question in the OP is "will we get a battle?", not "is it already over?". Those are two very different questions but many people respond (overly dramatically) as if it was the latter one that was asked and not the former. It's about giving your prediction, not a definite statement.

 

With so many races to go, it's impossible to say for sure, especially since it's the first season after a big rule change so big performance improvements are more likely.

 

On the other hand, things are not looking good because:

1. Ferrari seems to be the fastest car and Leclerc seems to be the faster driver within that team and he already has a buffer of almost 2 DNFs on the 2nd driver in the championship. It's one thing when a slower driver has a buffer over the faster one (like Rosberg in 2016) but if things are the other way around, it's a hell of a different task.

2. Red Bull seems to be the only team within a striking distance on performance but their reliability has been horrible so far. 3 mechanical DNFs in 3 races. That doesn't look like a coincidence but more like a design flaw and it's far more likely that they will suffer more DNFs than Ferrari in the coming races than fewer than Ferrari. If they really do, it's basically game over for them..

3. 3rd most likely team to challenge is Mercedes but they already need to gain a second a lap to equal themselves with Ferrari, let alone eclipse them. That's very rare in modern F1 and the comments from the team don't really sound like they know how they are going to find that much improvement. Their points tally is flattered by RB's unreliability, otherwise they would have been even further adrift.

So I would say there's less far than 50% chance that there will be a close battle for WDC this year. It doesn't mean 0 but things are not looking great for a close season IMO. Maybe Leclerc will get covid and will be forced to miss 2 races or maybe he will get crashed out by other drivers a couple of times like Max last year but I deem Charles heading to Abu Dhabi as a sure champion already a more likely scenario than any other.


Edited by Anderis, 10 April 2022 - 15:14.


#45 Jovanotti

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 15:26

Huge result for the WDC today. RB need to get their **** together, and fast, because the current points gap already enables Ferrari to be a bit more conservative with Leclerc.

#46 Bleu

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 15:48

Budget cap aside, how will wind tunnel restrictions affect catching up? After all Mercedes has the least amount of time available, followed by Red Bull and Ferrari, based on last year's WCC standings.



#47 Beri

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 15:54

Budget cap aside, how will wind tunnel restrictions affect catching up? After all Mercedes has the least amount of time available, followed by Red Bull and Ferrari, based on last year's WCC standings.

This is going to be decisive. Plus Ferrari hasn't used much of their allocated time for both windtunnel and CFD yet. Proven by the fact that Red Bull and Mercedes provided some sort of a B spec car and Ferrari haven't brought big upgrades. Yet.
This all is even aside from the fact that Ferrari has significantly more time in both areas to spend compared to Red Bull and Mercedes.

Edit; I see that I am being annoying and told this before on this thread 😅

Edited by Beri, 10 April 2022 - 15:55.


#48 Mark521

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 15:59

Currently it's hard to imagine that any other rival to LEC then VER but it's still very early.  VER needs to beat LEC 2 out of 3 going forward assuming the matching reliability for each.  Could Mercedes sneak up and take some points away from either of them?  If so then I would guess than VER would be the victim over the season as this would IMHO increase the chances of a DNF for VER (you can blame HAM if you'd like but the points loss would still happen).

 

I certainly have faith in Red Bull to fix their problems but they better get it sorted toot sweet.



#49 Afterburner

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 16:07

Max needs 8 victories if Leclerc follows him home with fastest laps.

This is my line of thinking. There are 20 races left, but for maybe a quarter of those, Ferrari's lead will probably be extended. For anyone to beat Leclerc this year, more than one team has to catch Ferrari AND they have to shoot themselves in the foot a few times. I know there's historical precedent for this, but in those years their challenger started out on even footing!

#50 Misk

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Posted 10 April 2022 - 16:11

I can see this season potentially ending up a little like 2005, between Alonso and Raikkonen. Verstappen will score a good heap of win in a fast but ultimatley unreliable Newey car, but too many DNFs will mean there will always be a healthy points gap between him and Lecerlc, and not the epic title fight that we saw last year.


Edited by Misk, 10 April 2022 - 16:11.