238 replies to this topic

[Greg Locock]

Yes, the UK is small (but not that small), but at least they publish their data. AEMO does not allow you access to the daily Australian data back beyond 3 days, without $$. Either way, continent sized wind droughts do exist for days at a time.

 

As you say my system is designed to replace a 1GW baseload power station, but it does have the additional effect of providing a lot ( a number I haven't figured out yet) of intermittent power. So, if you can run an energy intensive job within the next 3 days, but don't mind when, you can have zero generation cost power, say 20 c /kwh. But if you need it now, 40c/kWh.

 

Now, a two person house uses 10 kWh per day, so a cunning person might wonder if they should install a battery to get round that differential. In my head, buying a battery for 13k to save $2 a day doesn't make sense, given it'll need to be replaced every 10-15 years. 

[GreenMachine]

Now, a two person house uses 10 kWh per day, so a cunning person might wonder if they should install a battery to get round that differential. In my head, buying a battery for 13k to save $2 a day doesn't make sense, given it'll need to be replaced every 10-15 years. 

 

Yes, I export twice as much power as I consume (annually, so there are seasonal fluctuations), and since I got my array running over 10 years ago I have r4egularly looked at installing a battery, especially when the feed-in tariff has been less than 20% of my regular tariff.  No dice, the economics never worked, and still don't work.  Now however, the 20c FIT will at least pay my electricity bill, and the cash surplus will be put to good use.

 

The plan I am on charges very high consumption tariffs, much higher than what I am now paying, but the +3x FIT combined with the generation from my 10kw array blows those charges out of the water.  I'd love to get inside their financial modelling for that plan.

[Greg Locock]

AGL? 20 c FiT, $1.70 /day fixed costs 28 c/kWh for power from the grid. I get several hundred bucks a year back from my on-grid house. Absolutely ludicrous.

[Bloggsworth]

I hear that Tesla has, apparently, cancelled all orders for the Cybertruck outside the USA - No news on what will happen to your deposit if you were foolish enough to put one down...

[djr900]

I hear that Tesla has, apparently, cancelled all orders for the Cybertruck outside the USA - No news on what will happen to your deposit if you were foolish enough to put one down...

I personally don't think Cybertruck and definitely the Semi-truck will ever go into large scale production.

I guess if they keep saying production is only "Delayed" , then they can keep hold of deposit money legally , and cult members will not question anything

I think Cybertruck/Semi-truck launch events , were just to help ramp up the share price, while getting a multi-year interest free loan off of everyone who put down a deposit.

[gruntguru]

I hear that Tesla has, apparently, cancelled all orders for the Cybertruck outside the USA - No news on what will happen to your deposit if you were foolish enough to put one down...

A colleague paid the $1000 deposit to secure a Model 3 when they were announced. A couple of years later he changed his mind and the $1000 was refunded.

 

Can you imagine the outcry if Tesla or any company did not operate that way?

 

When the company does the cancelling - all the more reason for a full refund - don't you think???

[Magoo]

A Tesla Cybertruck order is $150 fully refundable. They're not really orders; they're "reservations" or "pre-orders" which is a custom in the industry these days. In the biz these people are called "hand raisers." 

 

Anyway, there are allegedly 3 million reservations made, which amounts to around $450 million. Since Tesla's market cap is currently around $650 billion and the company has nearly $20 billion in the bank, I doubt if the company sees it as a serious revenue stream. 

[MikeTekRacing]

I hear that Tesla has, apparently, cancelled all orders for the Cybertruck outside the USA - No news on what will happen to your deposit if you were foolish enough to put one down...

the only thing foolish is the idea that refunding the deposit is any issue

[Greg Locock]

The ute screamed 'won't pass FMVSS' to me for all sorts of reasons. I rather liked it as a shape.The Semi seemed to me to be a solution looking for a problem, but I suppose as a local haul (final 'mile' from rail/road interchange to supermarket) unit it made some sense.

[Magoo]

Electric vehicles will take over commercial trucking even faster than the passenger car market. In truck fleets, fuel/energy cost is everything. 

Edited by Magoo, 25 May 2022 - 08:52.

[smitten]

Electric vehicles will take over commercial trucking even faster than the passenger car market. In truck fleets, fuel/energy cost is everything. 

But also utlisation needs to be high; much, much higher than for a domestic vehicle, and I don't think EVs are there yet.

 

We are some way of a viable long-haul proposition, but local delivery fleets are increaasingly electric today.

[Canuck]

JFC…I take it back. You guys should not have guns, at least not until you get your mental health and violence epidemic sorted out.

[Magoo]

JFC…I take it back. You guys should not have guns, at least not until you get your mental health and violence epidemic sorted out.

 

We have a culture of guns, violence, and extreme entitlement, and it's a dangerous combination. 

[Magoo]

Electric trucks will be huge, but there will be some stumbles. Dual-use chassis and converted ICE chassis won't work. They give up too much of the potential advantage in efficiency. 

 

The efficiency is so great that a Daimler truck executive recently denied that it was possible. Yeah, the way you are doing it. 

[Fat Boy]

Electric vehicles will take over commercial trucking even faster than the passenger car market. In truck fleets, fuel/energy cost is everything. 

 
This raises an interesting question. If we accept that in commercial trucking financials really are everything and hybrid/electric are such an advantage, why aren't electric or hybrids commonplace? Locomotives generally have some sort of hybrid arrangement and that was a market driven choice, but big trucks have not taken the same path. I find this a little unusual because it does seem like a logical application. It suggests that financials are not the only issue in play.

[gruntguru]

The other issue in play is technology. Still coming.

 

Diesel locomotives have electric transmissions (not hybrid in the usual sense of the word because they don't include energy storage) because:

a) They need an infinitely variable CVT - to operate the engine at its best efficiency point for each power level demanded while driving the locomotive at anywhere between zero and Vmax.

b) They need to divide the power between multiple axles (lots of them).

c) Individual traction control on multiple axles.

[just me again]

Trucks are limited on weight. Therefore no hybrid or EV technolog!
I believe you need overhead wires on highways for trucks to be EV. I also believe they will come!
You can not have a battery supporting 40ton driving 92km/h at 10 hours. Also with the risk of a night on the hard shoulder because truck stops is full!!!
Wich means you need a 2 day battery. Or be able to charge 4-1/2 hours in 45 minuttes!

[Magoo]

The Volvo VNR battery-electric semi has a range of 230 miles, as does the Freightliner eCascadia. These trucks are for sale now and on running on the road. Several thousand of them so far. 

 

That range will cover a significant perfentage of the semi trucking in the USA, and more all the time, because haul lengths are rapidly decreasing due to ecommerce. 

[gruntguru]

Trucks are limited on weight. Therefore no hybrid or EV technolog!
I believe you need overhead wires on highways for trucks to be EV. I also believe they will come!
You can not have a battery supporting 40ton driving 92km/h at 10 hours. Also with the risk of a night on the hard shoulder because truck stops is full!!!
Wich means you need a 2 day battery. Or be able to charge 4-1/2 hours in 45 minuttes!

. . . and then you will need 2 day drivers. Battery swap every time you do a driver swap?

 

Mercedes says hydrogen is their focus for long haul trucking.

[just me again]

I believe in overhead wires.

European highways are jammed with trucks. So I believe it already could make economic sense.

You just need RU to regulate a standard and (short) implementation period!

[smitten]

I believe in overhead wires.

European highways are jammed with trucks. So I believe it already could make economic sense.

You just need RU to regulate a standard and (short) implementation period!

Theory is well proven in cities for public transport, but not sure how it would be metered if implemented for private use on open highways. 

[Magoo]

The purpose-designed electric semi-trucks will offer range in the 500 to 650 mile range. If the haul is longer than that, one solution is to platoon or relay the semi-tractors. One semi takes the trailer to a dropoff point, where another electric semi takes the trailer and completes the haul. 

 

The savings in fuel cost with this approach is considerable, but it is capital-intensive. This and other issues with E-trucks, including large upfront costs, are not a big problem for the big commercial carriers, but it will put terrible pressure on the independent owner-operators. Those who can't afford to keep up will be forced out. 

[Magoo]

I believe in overhead wires.

European highways are jammed with trucks. So I believe it already could make economic sense.

You just need RU to regulate a standard and (short) implementation period!

 

The wires can also be embedded in the roadway. It's a very practical approach. The question is if it will be needed. 

[GreenMachine]

The purpose-designed electric semi-trucks will offer range in the 500 to 650 mile range. If the haul is longer than that, one solution is to platoon or relay the semi-tractors. One semi takes the trailer to a dropoff point, where another electric semi takes the trailer and completes the haul. 

 

The savings in fuel cost with this approach is considerable, but it is capital-intensive. This and other issues with E-trucks, including large upfront costs, are not a big problem for the big commercial carriers, but it will put terrible pressure on the independent owner-operators. Those who can't afford to keep up will be forced out. 

 

This happens now.  Sydney-Melbourne is ~900km, and there is a practice of swapping tractors at around the halfway point.  The difference is that they are complete swaps, each tractor takes a trailer(s) home.

 

Here there are mandated rest breaks, fortuitously after 5 hours driving, so the swap location is well placed where a rest break can/needs to be taken.  It is possible, on the range figures you quote for battery trucks, for recharging to coincide with mandated rest periods, though I have no idea how long a recharge would take to get a driver through to his next mandated break.  I assume that just as we currently have 'truck stops' with high flow diesel pumps and other facilities for truck drivers, equipping them with high capacity 'ultra-super-chargers' might be possible.

[Greg Locock]

Melbourne Sydney is a good case study for EVs. It emphasises how much electrical infrastructure is needed to supply all these fast chargers. 

 there are about 433,500 annual freight trip movements in both directions. 

So assuming there is local buffering at each charge point so they can locally handle fast charging (need to allow for round trip efficiency), and if you know the energy consumption per km, and assume each starts out fully charged and can get half way, you can work out the power supply we need to run the length of the Hume. So I guess 1.2 kWh/km, half way is 500 km, so 600 kWh per vehicle, 1200 trucks/day each way, 24 hours per day 600 kw*1200*2/24 , so that's a 60 MW electricity cable, which is 132 kV 3 phase at 300A roughly. You'll also need 600 kWh*1200*2 of buffer at the fast charge point, 1400 MWh, or roughly 14 times the size of Musk's South Australian battery, so call it 2 billion dollars worth.

Coo.

Plus cars.

[Greg Locock]

That 600 kWh is 8 tons of the payload (less IC powertrain weight~2 tons) gone. 

Edited by Greg Locock, 28 May 2022 - 03:09.

[GreenMachine]

That 600 kWh is 8 tons of the payload (less IC powertrain weight~2 tons) gone. 

 

For context, under HML regs the GCM for B-double is 68t, Type 1road train (two trailers) 85t. Under HML it seems the highest GCM is the  B-A-B four trailer road train max GCM of 130t.

 

Also, note that achieving max payload is limited by the cargo 'cubing-out' - filling the capacity before the max allowable mass is reached.  Think shipping table tennis balls.  I don't know if there is data on the average GCM mass, but it does suggest that some freight tasks will be more amenable to electrification than others, given the mass of batteries.

 

(edited to expand on GCM maximums)

Edited by GreenMachine, 28 May 2022 - 06:04.

[just me again]

The wires can also be embedded in the roadway. It's a very practical approach. The question is if it will be needed.

They will be needed. Highways are crammed with trucks driving 10hours a day and then parking on the hard shoulder. Because the truck stops are full. The risk of missing a charge do not go along with "Just in time" transport in Europe.

It is simply not possible to guarantee delivery if you are dependent on chargers.

[just me again]

Theory is well proven in cities for public transport, but not sure how it would be metered if implemented for private use on open highways.

It is metered at the Railway's there is a lot of private trains paying for electricity!

[smitten]

It is metered at the Railway's there is a lot of private trains paying for electricity!

But only one train in a section at a time.

 

Edit: And I'm really not sure they meter each train individually or if it is wrapped up in the access cost.

Edited by smitten, 28 May 2022 - 10:48.

[just me again]

The meter is on the train. There is more than one train running on each section of wire. So the supplier can´t precisely meter the usage!

[BRG]

I believe in overhead wires.

European highways are jammed with trucks. So I believe it already could make economic sense.
 

There is already a trial of OLE on one or more German autobahns.  Trucks are fitted with a pantograph like a train.

 

But only one train in a section at a time.

 

Edit: And I'm really not sure they meter each train individually or if it is wrapped up in the access cost.

Don't know about elsewhere but I think in the UK there is a set access fee which varies depending on the power source.  So you pay more for an electric train but you don't have a fuel bill.  Perversely, as electricity charges have soared recently, some freight operators have reverted to diesel locomotives.

[Nathan]

Considering the efficiency of diesel and movement of weight, it kinda seems to me transport trucks aren't the right electrification target.

I'd sooner see those 600kwh go into 8 passenger cars.

Edited by Nathan, 28 May 2022 - 13:41.

[just me again]

There is already a trial of OLE on one or more German autobahns. Trucks are fitted with a pantograph like a train.

Don't know about elsewhere but I think in the UK there is a set access fee which varies depending on the power source. So you pay more for an electric train but you don't have a fuel bill. Perversely, as electricity charges have soared recently, some freight operators have reverted to diesel locomotives.

You already pay "Maut" in Germany per km. So it would be easy just to raise the tax to include electricity payment.

[GreenMachine]

The infrastructure costs of buried power lines boggles my mind.  Apart from the disruption of installation work on traffic, I doubt we have the truck traffic density to justify it - I am assuming costs would be fully recovered from users.  Overhead would be less disruptive and less costly, just might be economic, depending on how the cost to the user stacked up against fuel and other avoidable running costs.  It would probably mean two fleets - one overhead electric for long distance/trunk routes, one battery.for local distribution.

[GreenMachine]

The above post has started a train of thought ....

 

back in the day, when major roadworks were being planned, especially on new alignments, it was common for some brave souls to write in and say that the alignment should include 'X', and commonly 'X' was electricity (and gas) transmission lines.  This was always rejected, largely because of perceptions of incompatibility, especially where maintenance activities were undertaken, but also on the grounds that the electricity distribution network was already established and piecemeal sections of HT lines would not be practical or cost-effective.  However the network now requires substantial investment to better accommodate the distributed generation by renewables.

 

I don't know if there are material synergies between an electrified highway, and the sort of electricity distribution network that renewables might require, and the timing is almost certainly different, but it is an interesting thought - to me anyway.

 

Regardless, should overhead power be provided on highways, some people will be able to say 'I told you so'!

[BRG]

[smitten]

The infrastructure costs of buried power lines boggles my mind.  Apart from the disruption of installation work on traffic, I doubt we have the truck traffic density to justify it - I am assuming costs would be fully recovered from users.  Overhead would be less disruptive and less costly, just might be economic, depending on how the cost to the user stacked up against fuel and other avoidable running costs.  It would probably mean two fleets - one overhead electric for long distance/trunk routes, one battery.for local distribution.

The theory is you have just one truck which draws from the overhead while on trunk routes but has sufficient battery capacity for the last miles between those electrified routes and the final destination.

[GreenMachine]

Thanks BRG and smitten.  Interesting stuff.  UK/Europe seem like a good proving ground, compact, prosperous, highly developed economies and sophisticated distribution networks.  A country like Australia, where the population and economic activity is much more dispersed, that is a more challenging ask.  Smitten, yes, one truck simplifies things in terms of the delivery task, but the truck gets more expensive and payload is going to suffer.  However, it seems this is not just a thought experiment of the interwebs, but real-life trials and development - I'm impressed.

 

I would like to see an economic analysis though, both of the user case and the provider case.