The standings after Azerbaijan:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) noikeee 807 101 2) Brawn BGP 001 806 101 3) jjcale 802 101 4) F1frog 797 101 5) Anderis 793 101 6) DutchQuicksilver 786 101 = mark f1 786 101 8) KWSN-DSM 785 101 9) Bleu 779 101 = GTA 779 101 11) SpaceHorseParty 777 101 12) Grayson 776 101 = scheivlak 776 101 14) Makarias 775 101 15) f1paul 773 100A miraculously high scoring round when Bottas doesn't score any points. One point missed for f1paul for Ocon.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Bott 180,4 80,9 13 Pere 58,4 46,2 0 Magn 54,3 16,7 7 Ocon 49,3 30,7 1 Russ 47,2 34,9 0 Vers 40,9 34,5 0 Lecl 40,2 28,0 0 Sain 33,2 22,2 0 Tsun 31,1 16,2 1 Albo 30,4 7,7 5 Norr 30,4 23,9 0 Vett 26,6 12,3 0 Hami 22,5 16,7 0 Zhou 22,4 6,3 3 Alon 22,1 13,2 0 Gasl 18,7 12,7 0 Ricc 10,7 8,2 0 Stro 5,6 1,9 0
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Perez Russell Hamilton Gasly * Potential 490 * Potential 471 * Potential 449 * Potential 412 * Potential 366 Anderis 405 * Forecast 333 F1frog 283 Grayson 370 KWSN-DSM 125 SpaceHorseParty 401 Anderis 261 * Forecast 272 scheivlak 328 Makarias 102 noikeee 395 KWSN-DSM 225 f1paul 243 F1frog 320 scheivlak 102 * Forecast 385 Makarias 222 Makarias 243 Makarias 312 mark f1 100 Makarias 374 jjcale 218 mark f1 240 DutchQuicksilver311 Bleu 94 Grayson 360 GTA 210 DutchQuicksilver236 mark f1 310 Grayson 90 scheivlak 360 f1paul 209 jjcale 230 noikeee 282 noikeee 90 DutchQuicksilver358 mark f1 204 scheivlak 225 jjcale 271 F1frog 86 f1paul 358 Bleu 201 Grayson 220 Brawn BGP 001 267 f1paul 85 mark f1 350 noikeee 201 noikeee 202 GTA 261 SpaceHorseParty 85 Brawn BGP 001 346 Brawn BGP 001 200 Bleu 186 f1paul 258 Brawn BGP 001 81 GTA 335 scheivlak 200 GTA 180 Bleu 245 GTA 75 KWSN-DSM 310 F1frog 198 KWSN-DSM 175 KWSN-DSM 225 DutchQuicksilver 74 F1frog 265 DutchQuicksilver191 Anderis 165 SpaceHorseParty 190 jjcale 56 Bleu 264 SpaceHorseParty 186 SpaceHorseParty 160 Anderis 185 * Forecast 44 jjcale 256 Grayson 180 Brawn BGP 001 155 * Forecast 171 Anderis 40 * Current 140 * Current 121 * Current 99 * Current 62 * Current 16A much needed bounceback for Gasly after four pointless races.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Vettel Alonso Ricciardo Norris Ocon * Potential 363 * Potential 366 * Potential 362 * Potential 395 * Potential 381 Anderis 105 Bleu 120 Bleu 145 jjcale 187 Anderis 100 f1paul 60 Anderis 100 F1frog 140 Bleu 182 Bleu 100 KWSN-DSM 60 Brawn BGP 001 89 mark f1 135 F1frog 177 * Forecast 85 DutchQuicksilver 51 KWSN-DSM 80 Makarias 134 Brawn BGP 001 175 KWSN-DSM 80 scheivlak 50 mark f1 80 Grayson 130 Makarias 163 scheivlak 70 Bleu 48 scheivlak 80 jjcale 130 SpaceHorseParty 160 jjcale 68 Grayson 45 DutchQuicksilver 79 KWSN-DSM 125 Grayson 150 SpaceHorseParty 65 F1frog 44 Makarias 66 Brawn BGP 001 111 KWSN-DSM 150 Brawn BGP 001 64 jjcale 44 Grayson 65 DutchQuicksilver108 mark f1 150 DutchQuicksilver 63 Brawn BGP 001 41 SpaceHorseParty 65 f1paul 104 scheivlak 140 Grayson 60 Makarias 41 F1frog 62 Anderis 90 DutchQuicksilver126 mark f1 60 mark f1 40 GTA 58 SpaceHorseParty 90 f1paul 125 F1frog 58 noikeee 39 f1paul 52 scheivlak 88 * Forecast 124 Makarias 57 * Forecast 36 jjcale 52 noikeee 82 GTA 121 noikeee 38 SpaceHorseParty 35 * Forecast 44 GTA 63 noikeee 113 GTA 37 GTA 30 noikeee 37 * Forecast 33 Anderis 105 * Current 31 * Current 13 * Current 16 * Current 12 * Current 45 f1paul 23
The PTPC forecast
Here it comes:
Name Forecast +/- Anderis 1868,5 75,2 noikeee 1859,8 69,6 f1paul 1857,5 17,8 DutchQuicksilver 1849,8 44,9 SpaceHorseParty 1825,5 40,1 Makarias 1817,8 75,0 scheivlak 1817,0 61,3 mark f1 1811,8 61,0 Brawn BGP 001 1811,5 21,6 GTA 1801,8 -4,7 jjcale 1794,8 42,9 F1frog 1779,0 73,9 Grayson 1752,8 60,9 Bleu 1730,8 45,8 KWSN-DSM 1725,3 55,4A good round for Ferrari pessimists, which GTA obviously isn't.