101 replies to this topic

[Risil]

Pros:

Best driver pairing on the grid, probably

Mercedes have a lot of brains and resources to throw at problems

Russell keeps getting these podium finishes

Car is reliable

 

Cons:
Car may be fundamentally flawed

Verstappen doesn't make many mistakes

Ferrari and Red Bull have four competitive drivers between them

Stiff suspension may be injuring drivers

 

Over to you! If you answered "Yes", bonus points if you can guess which Grand Prix they'll win first.

[Bartonz20let]

Almost certainly not

[Acathla]

Would be nice to have a year without Mercedes winning a race. 

[MaroF1]

I am struggling to believe that Ferrari will win more races this year, let alone Mercedes.

[Gareth]

I voted yes, mainly because with so many races in the season I think there's a better than 50/50 chance of a Italy 20/21, Hungary 21 etc style race with Merc picking up the unlikely win.

 

I do think that's their only route to a victory - I don't see them being sufficiently competitive at any circuit this season to pick up a win without something funky going on.

[Colbul1]

There is bound to be a race where it rains just enough to level the playing field and then it's all down to the luck of the draw.  Nobody saw Ocon winning, but he did.  Hungary would be a good bet as Hamilton always goes well there.

[messy]

On pace, no - they're relying on all of the 'top four' all having problems and I can't see that. I can see two of them retiring and a Mercedes on the podium, I mean we had that yesterday - but not all of them and they're in no position to win on pace. Even Perez or Sainz on a bad day beats both Mercs comfortably. 

[ARTGP]

Alpine and Mclaren won races last year. AT the year before.

 

A lot can happen. Well timed  safety car in Singapore?  

Edited by ARTGP, 13 June 2022 - 15:29.

[Disgrace]

They seemed to have some genuine pace in Barcelona. So the car may also go well at similarly awful circuits like Paul Ricard and Abu Dhabi.

[ARTGP]

 

Ferrari and Red Bull have four competitive drivers between them

 

 

The jury is still out on that 

[GrumpyYoungMan]

Pros:

Best driver pairing on the grid, probably

Mercedes have a lot of brains and resources to throw at problems

Russell keeps getting these podium finishes

Car is reliable

 

Cons:
Car may be fundamentally flawed

Verstappen doesn't make many mistakes

Ferrari and Red Bull have four competitive drivers between them

Stiff suspension may be injuring drivers

 

Over to you! If you answered "Yes", bonus points if you can guess which Grand Prix they'll win first.

One of the last ones in the last quarter of the season, I will go on to add they will end the year strong and next year will be another Mercedes whitewash with Russel beating Hamilton into retirement.
 

Edited by GrumpyYoungMan, 13 June 2022 - 15:31.

[SophieB]

I think on balance they will not, point about crazy races/upticks in form notwithstanding.

[New Britain]

Would be nice to have a year without Mercedes winning a race. 

Yes, and it would be even nicer to have a year without any of the big (as in, richest) three teams winning a race.

[nivoglibina]

My bet is on Stoffel van Doorne in Silverstone.

[IrvTheSwerve]

On pure pace, no…unless Merc come up with one heck of an upgrade.

 

I wouldn’t bet against them winning a race at some point though. If Max and Charles have a coming together, it wouldn’t surprise me to see George in the mix with Perez or Sainz…he’s making sure that he’s there to pick up the pieces. Ferrari are showing some unreliability too. There’s always one crazy race at some point during the season…

 

A bigger question for me is will Hamilton win a race this season? So far, it looks like if a Merc is going to win a race…it’s going to be George.

[PayasYouRace]

I think they will, but it’ll be (most likely) Russell picking up the pieces on a crazy day.

It’ll be like much like the wins for Alpha Tauri, Racing Point, Alpine and McLaren in the last two seasons. There will be a race where both Ferraris and both Red Bulls have problems, and they’ll be in prime position to capitalise.

[JimmyClark]

Yes, the third fastest team has picked up wins most years, so statistically they should do so on a chaotic day.

But I don't think they will win from being the fastest car, it will be due to some safety car freakshow.

[P123]

Not without a bit of luck.

[William Hunt]

If the Red Bulls & Ferrari's drive in to each other or all suffer engine problems or during a weird rain race with safety cars then maybe yes

F1 is boring: we used to have only Mercedes & Red Bull dominating and winning 90% of the time, now we have Mercedes & Ferrari in that role: so predictable and utterly boring F1 is

[IrvTheSwerve]

If the Red Bulls & Ferrari's drive in to each other or all suffer engine problems or during a weird rain race with safety cars then maybe yes

F1 is boring: we used to have only Mercedes & Red Bull dominating and winning 90% of the time, now we have Mercedes & Ferrari in that role: so predictable and utterly boring F1 is

I predict Redbull might sneak in a win during the remainder of the season… 

[Risil]

If the Red Bulls & Ferrari's drive in to each other or all suffer engine problems or during a weird rain race with safety cars then maybe yes

F1 is boring: we used to have only Mercedes & Red Bull dominating and winning 90% of the time, now we have Mercedes & Ferrari in that role: so predictable and utterly boring F1 is

 

I think we're quite fortunate that the 2022 shake-up involved two teams doing the best job interpreting the regulations instead of just one. It could have been just Red Bull or just Ferrari half a second clear of the field.

 

There are obviously bigger, structural reasons why year after year the winners can always be found from Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari. Open question whether the budget cap regulations will do anything to disrupt this.

[MJB5990]

It feels like even if the top four run into trouble, it won't even be Mercedes picking up the scraps - just one of those seasons. 

 

Either that or the irony would be that after finishing in the top 5 all season long, when the top four do open the door, it's not George who takes the win, it's Lewis. 

[dia6olo]

At the rate they are progressing, I wouldn't put any money on them winning a race next year let alone this year...

[Frankbullitt]

With some luck, yes. On pure pace, nope.

[Whitelightning]

Yep I think so, will involve luck though.

[Whitelightning]

Forget Mercedes winning a race though we need to ask will Ferrari finish another race 😂

[Rumblestrip]

Yes, but only as a freak race during the year (maybe in the wet). George has always been there behind the front runners so far, so if they falter badly I reckon he'll be there to pick up the pieces.

[AnR]

Pros:

Best driver pairing on the grid, probably

Mercedes have a lot of brains and resources to throw at problems

Russell keeps getting these podium finishes

Car is reliable

 

Cons:
Car may be fundamentally flawed

Verstappen doesn't make many mistakes

Ferrari and Red Bull have four competitive drivers between them

Stiff suspension may be injuring drivers

 

Over to you! If you answered "Yes", bonus points if you can guess which Grand Prix they'll win first.

 

IMO Red Bull drivers is better, and probably Ferrari on form right now, not much suggesting anything else right now.

 

Unable to throw money at problems like before and with a flawed design only luck will make Mercedes win a race in 2021.

[cbo]

Everything is possible, but the odds that you have four Ferrari and Red Bull DNF in one race, are not good.

I doubt the Silver Shitbox will win a race on merit, but perhaps Mercedes will be able to manipulate their way into a more advanced suspension or something.......

[TheFish]

Unlikely, but you can never say never. A well timed SC after a collision taking out Leclerc and Verstappen is likely their best chance.

[Viryfan]

Silverstone or Castellet

[Mark1865]

I’m confident they will be at least on Ferrari’s pace in the final third of the year and probably faster. However I also have confidence that Red Bull can develop their car a lot better than Ferrari so it would need some bad luck for Max for Merc to win a race. I voted yes as it’s bound to happen once.

I agree they have the best driver pairing on the grid, which adds to my confidence that either Lewis or George will be there to capitalise when the opportunity presents itself.

[tourister46a]

Freak races are Mercedes's best chance but they are impossible to predict before hand. Lewis had some genuine front running pace in Spain. I wonder if there are other tracks with similar characteristics (whatever they are) that help with the Merc porpoising. I am predicting Hungary

[ARTGP]

Part of the problem is Mercedes isn't really a gambling team. So they really aren't well positioned to capitalize in freak races either.  They won't switch to dry's first.  They won't do anything aggressive.

 

The only pseudo gambling play they have is keeping Hamilton out for ages on his tires and I just don't think that is going to get them anywhere. 

Edited by ARTGP, 13 June 2022 - 17:08.

[AlexPrime]

Yes, FIA would probably help  But IMO Silverstone looks good for them.

[Clatter]

IMO Red Bull drivers is better, and probably Ferrari on form right now, not much suggesting anything else right now.

 

Unable to throw money at problems like before and with a flawed design only luck will make Mercedes win a race in 2021.

 

Think they won plenty in 2021.

[AncientLurker]

IMO Red Bull drivers is better, and probably Ferrari on form right now, not much suggesting anything else right now.

 

Unable to throw money at problems like before and with a flawed design only luck will make Mercedes win a race in 2021.

You can argue the RB duo might be on par with Merc's lads on Perez' recent form, but Sainz just isn't in the discussion for top drivers, so Ferrari is out of the best pairing argument.

[Coral]

No, not a chance. Red Bull will win most, if not all, the remaining races I think. Leclerc will get more poles but he won't win another race in 2022. Red Bull/Max to win every WDC until the next big rule change. 

 

Mercedes are not going to win anything until at least 2026, if they even stay in F1.

[AlexPrime]

No, not a chance. Red Bull will win most, if not all, the remaining races I think. Leclerc will get more poles but he won't win another race in 2022. Red Bull/Max to win every WDC until the next big rule change. 

 

Mercedes are not going to win anything until at least 2026, if they even stay in F1.

Nah, no way. Liberty will do their best to spice the show.

[Nemo1965]

No, not a chance. Red Bull will win most, if not all, the remaining races I think. Leclerc will get more poles but he won't win another race in 2022. Red Bull/Max to win every WDC until the next big rule change.

Mercedes are not going to win anything until at least 2026, if they even stay in F1.

Wow...

[dia6olo]

No, not a chance. Red Bull will win most, if not all, the remaining races I think. Leclerc will get more poles but he won't win another race in 2022. Red Bull/Max to win every WDC until the next big rule change. 

 

Mercedes are not going to win anything until at least 2026, if they even stay in F1.

I'll take that bet and say that Leclerc will win at bear minimum at least another 3 races in 2022.

Considering Leclerc could have won the last 3 races, that is one ridiculous statement...

Edited by dia6olo, 14 June 2022 - 08:37.

[HeadFirst]

The Red Bull faction will be happy when Mercedes pull out, and take their engines with them. After complaining about Merc domination and lack of competition for years, I'm sure they will sing a different tune, when it is their favorites that are unchallenged. Perhaps RB will be forced to supply their golden engines to non-subservient teams, in order to fill the void. Won't that be fun!

[ARTGP]

The Red Bull faction will be happy when Mercedes pull out, and take their engines with them. After complaining about Merc domination and lack of competition for years, I'm sure they will sing a different tune, when it is their favorites that are unchallenged. Perhaps RB will be forced to supply their golden engines to non-subservient teams, in order to fill the void. Won't that be fun!

 

Does Ferrari not exist? 

[ThadGreen]

Anything is possible. It has to be a bitter pill for them to swallow this year after being so dominant in the past. It will interesting to see what develops with the team and drivers as the year progresses. 

[HeadFirst]

Does Ferrari not exist? 

 

Is there not some rule that states that there is a maximum number of teams an engine mfg can be required to supply? I think Ferrari might already be at that number. What about Renault/Alpine ... did you forget about them, or was that an existential question?

[ARTGP]

Strong teams go through boom and bust cycles. It happens. It has happened to almost every single team on the grid. Merc won't be the first or the last. 

[ARTGP]

Is there not some rule that states that there is a maximum number of teams an engine mfg can be required to supply? I think Ferrari might already be at that number. What about Renault/Alpine ... did you forget about them, or was that an existential question?

 

That wasn't what my post was in response to. You said:

 

 

 

The Red Bull faction will be happy when Mercedes pull out, and take their engines with them. After complaining about Merc domination and lack of competition for years, I'm sure they will sing a different tune, when it is their favorites that are unchallenged. 

 

 

To which I responded with, does Ferrari not exist?  But you are correct, do Alpine and Mclaren not exist either?

 

Or are we simply Mercedes-centric in thinking that if Mercedes are not winning, everything is wrong with the sport and furthermore that if Mercedes pull out, it somehow guarantees more success for Red Bull. 

Edited by ARTGP, 13 June 2022 - 18:35.

[Ali623]

On pure pace, I doubt it. They've made no progress in regards to closing the gap to the front two so far this season (if anything they've gone backwards) and there's currently no reason to suggest that'll change suddenly. Maybe Silverstone, they seem to think they'll go well there, similar to Barcelona - but would likely still need some misfortune to befall the front-runners.

 

Through a random wild race with some luck on their side, more likely. They're still pretty comfortably the third fastest overall (they've been best of the rest everywhere bar Imola so far) so they basically need the 4 cars ahead to fall out the race one way or another. Happened once last season, in Hungary, so it's possible. 

[bibliophagos]

The Red Bull faction will be happy when Mercedes pull out, and take their engines with them. After complaining about Merc domination and lack of competition for years, I'm sure they will sing a different tune, when it is their favorites that are unchallenged. Perhaps RB will be forced to supply their golden engines to non-subservient teams, in order to fill the void. Won't that be fun!

In that situation it will be just as much fun to hear 'the Mercedes/Hamilton faction' complain bitterly about domination from one team/driver...

[smitten]

Not on pure pace - but may pick one up by the top two teams self destructing.

 

I pick a wet Brazil for Hamilton to do it, just to annoy this forum.   (that's him annoying the forum, not me!)