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UK study on risks and public acceptability of autonomous cars


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#1 mariner

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 10:01

I thought this report is a sensible summary of AV safety risks , real and , maybe more important , perceived 

 

 

https://www.bbc.co.u...nology-62598618

 

The point that struck me is the safety improvement to match planes etc of 100 fold. I find that number a bit high as you should really measure plane safety on flight  sectors not mileage since that's the real world risk situation 

 

However as the article days that may well be what the public expect of AV's 

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I don't have any doubt that AV's can eventually be safer than driven cars but the required target death rate needs to be ( using UK data) about one occupant fatality per billion miles and getting enough real world data to validate that is a challenge I think.

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As the article suggests the public may not be wiling to have that  much testing going on while they drive 

 



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#2 absinthedude

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 11:15

Part of the problem with autonomous cars is that they're new and the accidents which they cause are generally different to what we are used to....and often seem to be accidents that a human driver wouldn't have. 

 

They might be statistically just as safe or safer than human driven vehicles, but because humans aren't used to the specific kinds of risk they pose, people will be sceptical. 

 

Eg....autonomous car model known as the "Mitsu-Tachi X1000" drives millions of miles over a decade and one example knocks over a pedestrian because the AI gets confused....people are up in arms because a human driver would probably have avoided the pedestrian. No amount of saying that a traditional car model covering the same timeframe and mileage would probably have resulted in five deaths (or whatever the stats are)....it's new and unfamiliar and people don't always trust it. Except for the people who own it, who trust it too much and doze off or play games when they should be keeping an eye out for unexpected incidents. 

 

Many humans enjoy driving, though my wife would quite like an autonomous car. They will probably form a part of the future. There must be a lot of drivers who would appreciate a break in a long journey where they let the AI take over for an hour or so. 

 

The comparison with planes and trains is odd, because I think we all know they are safer than driving....but when a jumbo jet crashes or when there's a serious train crash, the death toll and life changing injuries often run into tens or, in the case of planes, hundreds. They make big headlines because of the scale of the tragedy. 

 

Not that I have much faith in the great British public's understanding of statistics. Recent events have proved that understanding doesn't even reach minimal. 


Edited by absinthedude, 19 August 2022 - 11:18.


#3 Greg Locock

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 21:45

One big step forward would be for Electric Fatmouth to stop tweeting bad statistics about how safe Autopilot is. The raw stats are almost meaningless.



#4 Fat Boy

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Posted 19 August 2022 - 23:26

Part of the problem with autonomous cars is that they're new and the accidents which they cause are generally different to what we are used to....and often seem to be accidents that a human driver wouldn't have. 

 

Bingo. It's an unknown and essentially unnecessary risk. Having said that, all travel is a risk. The $64,000 question (That's for you, Magoo) is whether or not the autonomous risk is greater than the conventional one. Until we can accurately evaluate what the difference in risk level actually is and then thoroughly demonstrate the autonomous benefits, the general public *should* be skeptical. Sooner or later, it will naturally gain acceptance and be the standard.



#5 404KF2

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Posted 20 August 2022 - 01:18

Interesting take on the provision of informed consent in the ethical considerations. Public referendum? But even a majority of road users agreeing would not pass the usual ethics test for experimentation.



#6 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 27 August 2022 - 02:46

Aeroplanes crash and run into each other way too often. Yet there is literally only thousands of them in comparison to millions of motor vehicles. Commercial planes have all the autonomy required to fly from A-B avoiding other planes and flying preset routes. And dont have to avoid a zillion moving obstacles. 

So autonomous cars,, yeah right!



#7 Ross Stonefeld

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Posted 27 August 2022 - 14:33

Bingo. It's an unknown and essentially unnecessary risk. Having said that, all travel is a risk. The $64,000 question (That's for you, Magoo) is whether or not the autonomous risk is greater than the conventional one. Until we can accurately evaluate what the difference in risk level actually is and then thoroughly demonstrate the autonomous benefits, the general public *should* be skeptical. Sooner or later, it will naturally gain acceptance and be the standard.

 

I think insurance will be a key issue. And the approach to insurance. There's a certain amount of "well, **** happens" with human error. The incident rate with hardware(and particularly electronics) is far less charitable and has more culpability.



#8 Bloggsworth

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Posted 27 August 2022 - 15:44

Unless governments clearly, and rigidly, define the responsibilities in the case of events involving autonomous cars, they are an open bank for the benefit of lawyers - Two cars of different makes collide

 

"Well, my software is better than yours, so it's your car's fault..."

 

"See you in court..."

 

Guaranteed to put the cost of insurance up!



#9 djr900

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Posted 27 August 2022 - 16:00

So how will this work, will there be 2 operating modes for these AV cars

A manual mode where a human with a licence can drive the car using a steering wheel & pedals

And an autonomous mode where someone without a licence / been drinking etc. can only use the car in the autonomous mode ?

Would a truly autonomous vehicle not even have any controls for a human driver to take over driving

#10 gruntguru

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Posted 29 August 2022 - 22:01

Unless governments clearly, and rigidly, define the responsibilities in the case of events involving autonomous cars, they are an open bank for the benefit of lawyers - Two cars of different makes collide

 

"Well, my software is better than yours, so it's your car's fault..."

 

"See you in court..."

 

Guaranteed to put the cost of insurance up!

 

Unless of course the number of accidents goes down.



#11 gruntguru

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Posted 29 August 2022 - 22:04

So how will this work, will there be 2 operating modes for these AV cars

A manual mode where a human with a licence can drive the car using a steering wheel & pedals

And an autonomous mode where someone without a licence / been drinking etc. can only use the car in the autonomous mode ?

Would a truly autonomous vehicle not even have any controls for a human driver to take over driving

There will be a gradual transition from the 100% manual vehicle to the 100% autonomous vehicle. We are already well down the road - most models already have autonomous functions eg AEB - at least as options.



#12 Fat Boy

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Posted 30 August 2022 - 01:01

So how will this work, will there be 2 operating modes for these AV cars

A manual mode where a human with a licence can drive the car using a steering wheel & pedals

And an autonomous mode where someone without a licence / been drinking etc. can only use the car in the autonomous mode ?

Would a truly autonomous vehicle not even have any controls for a human driver to take over driving

I'm assuming you watched Demolition Man and Total Recall like the rest of us. You get in and tell it where you want to go while it debits your virtual wallet based off your ubiquitous bio-print which is constantly being used to market to you.

 



#13 Wuzak

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Posted 30 August 2022 - 07:24

Aeroplanes crash and run into each other way too often. Yet there is literally only thousands of them in comparison to millions of motor vehicles. Commercial planes have all the autonomy required to fly from A-B avoiding other planes and flying preset routes. And dont have to avoid a zillion moving obstacles. 

So autonomous cars,, yeah right!

 

How often is "way too often"?

 

And what is the proportion of collisions in the air against collisions on the ground?