107 replies to this topic

[Lel]

Leclerc is down 98 points (I don't count Perez...they won't allow him to challenge Max for the championship). What would be needed, and how soon?

Edited by Lel, 28 August 2022 - 23:14.

[Sparky68]

Ferrari strat and engines should suffice.

[thefinalapex]

Ferrari strat and engines should suffice.

 

Savage

[Lel]

Ferrari strat and engines should suffice.

[Bliman]

Ferrari strat and engines should suffice.

Why so pessimistic? I think Ferrari strat alone already would suffice .

[Sparky68]

Why so pessimistic? I think Ferrari strat alone already would suffice .

Never count youre chickens......even if they are red 

[Bliman]

Never count youre chickens......even if they are red 

Congratulations by the way on both the championships .

Edited by Bliman, 28 August 2022 - 23:23.

[Sparky68]

Congratulations by the way on both the championships .

Shhhh the Mrs might be reading and I need a bigger turbo

[krapmeister]

Ferrari strat and engines should suffice.

Autosport forums post of the year

[Atreiu]

The one he finishes with more points.

I’m puzzled by the reason for ths thread. Only a tragedy would derail Max and Red Bull.

[Primo]

First thing that'd need to happen is a decision in Ferrari HQ is that they want to win the WDC after all. Then, if they decide that, they need to decide with which driver they should mount the attack. Take today for example: If they wanted Leclerc to get closer to Max they could've sacrificed Sainz and let him try to steal the FL point from Max and then silently let Charles  pass for fourth. It would have guaranteed Leclerc 2 points extra and potentially taken one from Max, reducing the distance by 3. Instead they went with a strategy that left Leclerc with 8 points instead 12. In addition, Ferraro's inaction brought Sainz so close to Leclerc that they can not easily motivate it publicly if they ask Carlos to "take one for the team". 

There's 8 races left and the chance of someone beating Max, if he stays healthy, is very very small. If they want to try, they cannot be nice. 

In reality, I think Ferrari will hope for a miracle rather than change their approach. Maybe they want to be seen as The Nice Team, but while that might be true, it is their fumbles that leaves the lasting impression.

[noikeee]

By this stage surely the only question that remains is, with how many races to spare will Max win it?

It's not a very interesting question, btw.

[jonpollak]

I love all my chickens.
Jp

[flyboym3]

By this stage surely the only question that remains is, with how many races to spare will Max win it?

It's not a very interesting question, btw.

Mathematically over in 2 weeks I reckon if being optimistic?

[eab]

Almost. Add 3 weeks, or 1 race.

But my guess it will be reality in Suzuka or Austin.

[PitViperRacing]

I think someone crunched the numbers and he can have it done by Japan.

[YamahaV10]

This season looked so exciting at the start. Red Bull vs Ferrari. Now it is over. Max is the champ. 

[eab]

I think someone crunched the numbers and he can have it done by Japan.

As stated, it can even be done in 5 weeks time, that's after the SIN GP. Unlikely however, but it's still merely a delay of the inevitable..

[FullOppositeLock]

Unless Ferrari and Leclerc pull up their socks it will be all over in Honda's back garden, which would be most fitting.

[RA2]

Unless Ferrari and Leclerc pull up their socks it will be all over in Honda's back garden, which would be most fitting.

 

 

What ever happens, I hope they run Honda livery at Suzuka (maybe without the yellow on the airbox)

 

Edited by RA2, 29 August 2022 - 07:26.

[DeKnyff]

Ferrari strat and engines should suffice.

Not anymore at this point.

[DeKnyff]

Maximum Leclerc could score would be 8 wins (200 points) + 8 fastest laps (8 points) + 1 sprint race win (8 points) = 216 points.

 

Max has an advantage of 98 points, so he needs to score 216 - 98 + 1 = 119 points in 8 races, this is, 14.875 points per race. Therefore, finishing third every race would give Max the title.

 

The Championship is done.

[sheSgoTthElooK]

Ferrari being basically Ferrari? You get what you give...

 

I think the question should rather be... what combination is needed for Charles to become still Champ?

 

- the 2nd awakening of Mercedes to put pressure on the Bulls and steer uncertainty, trouble, panic ... lovely entertainment

 

- full blown dedication, strong belief, unshakable conviction, fierce determination @Ferrari AND @Charles... describing myself here too 

 

Everything can happen. History has shown. But you need to do your job...

 

 

[SenorSjon]

Not anymore at this point.

 

I'm still waiting for them to go for FL just after a SC in the last 10 laps.

[Rediscoveryx]

Maximum Leclerc could score would be 8 wins (200 points) + 8 fastest laps (8 points) + 1 sprint race win (8 points) = 216 points.

Max has an advantage of 98 points, so he needs to score 216 - 98 + 1 = 119 points in 8 races, this is, 14.875 points per race. Therefore, finishing third every race would give Max the title.

The Championship is done.

Yeah, he can pretty much cruise to the title. It’s quite likely that Ferrari have already come to this conclusion as well and are focusing their development efforts on 2023 already.

[Ellios]

By Singapore is realistic and quite a statement. 

 

Japan most likely. 

 

Well done Max & RB, domination is over used but to summarize 2022 season it's correct.   

[pUs]

Unless RB run into drastic misfortune, such as a few mechanically related DNF's + a few driver mistakes at the same time as Leclerc takes maximum points I just can't see this one slipping to Ferrari. With the sort of margin Max have right now the team can afford to play it safe - perhaps even take on another new full power unit if needed. My guess is that it'll be wrapped up at Suzuka.

Edited by pUs, 29 August 2022 - 08:35.

[SenorSjon]

Losing a 45 point margin is unprecedented, imagine losing a 98 point one.

[baddog]

Max needs to get out of bed for at least some races basically.

[Henri Greuter]

Unless RB run into drastic misfortune, such as a few mechanically related DNF's + a few driver mistakes at the same time as Leclerc takes maximum points I just can't see this one slipping to Ferrari. With the sort of margin Max have right now the team can afford to play it safe - perhaps even take on another new full power unit if needed. My guess is that it'll be wrapped up at Suzuka.

 

 

Funny,

 

One of the things I regret about this year is that Honda is not able to get all PR and credits for their share in making this year's car such a success.

OK, it was their own doing because of their own decision making.

But still, it is a bit of a pity for Honda.

 

Given where they came from a few years ago ( "GP2 engine!" being heard on what was their home race ....) and what we see now.

What a recovery and what a regaining of credibility.

 

If because of their own decision maing it is impossible to reap the maximum credits and honor from their achievements this year, then it would certainly be nice for them if Max manages to secure the title in the Japanese GP.

Not good tor the excitement within the season and so on, But for Honda it would be a very nice compensation for the fact they can't fully exploit the success of their recent effortsl etc. 

[Laptom]

Funny,

One of the things I regret about this year is that Honda is not able to get all PR and credits for their share in making this year's car such a success.
OK, it was their own doing because of their own decision making.
But still, it is a bit of a pity for Honda.

Given where they came from a few years ago ( "GP2 engine!" being heard on what was their home race ....) and what we see now.
What a recovery and what a regaining of credibility.

If because of their own decision maing it is impossible to reap the maximum credits and honor from their achievements this year, then it would certainly be nice for them if Max manages to secure the title in the Japanese GP.
Not good tor the excitement within the season and so on, But for Honda it would be a very nice compensation for the fact they can't fully exploit the success of their recent effortsl etc.

Nobody will disagree with you. I'm going to Singapore this year, but I do hope for Honda that they will secure it in Japan.

[pUs]

Funny,

 

One of the things I regret about this year is that Honda is not able to get all PR and credits for their share in making this year's car such a success.

OK, it was their own doing because of their own decision making.

But still, it is a bit of a pity for Honda.

 

Given where they came from a few years ago ( "GP2 engine!" being heard on what was their home race ....) and what we see now.

What a recovery and what a regaining of credibility.

 

If because of their own decision maing it is impossible to reap the maximum credits and honor from their achievements this year, then it would certainly be nice for them if Max manages to secure the title in the Japanese GP.

Not good tor the excitement within the season and so on, But for Honda it would be a very nice compensation for the fact they can't fully exploit the success of their recent effortsl etc. 

Yeah that whole thing is actually a bit sad to me. I really admired their perseverance and slow but steady progress over the years. I don't think anybody would've blamed them for giving up around mid-2016, on the contrary it seemed a rational choice but instead they kept it up. 

[Muppetmad]

I am certainly not sad that Max will be champion; he is an extraordinary driver, and worthy of many titles (which I have no doubt he will win). It's a shame the title fight has collapsed like this, though. Bahrain and Jeddah really gave the impression this could be a title fight to remember, and I enjoyed it for the very brief time it lasted.

[Anderis]

A combination of humanity not being ended by a global catastrophe in the next few months and Max not killing or severely injuring himself in the next few weeks.

[Primo]

Leclerc need to up his game, throw some tear-offs into Max's brake ducts. Just like Max do to him. But to do that, he must practice that new routine and, of course be ahead...

[SenorSjon]

Leclerc need to up his game, throw some tear-offs into Max's brake ducts. Just like Max do to him. But to do that, he must practice that new routine and, of course be ahead...

 

Well, he actually did earlier this season, so it is 1-1 now.

[AlexPrime]

First thing that'd need to happen is a decision in Ferrari HQ is that they want to win the WDC after all. Then, if they decide that, they need to decide with which driver they should mount the attack. Take today for example: If they wanted Leclerc to get closer to Max they could've sacrificed Sainz and let him try to steal the FL point from Max and then silently let Charles  pass for fourth. It would have guaranteed Leclerc 2 points extra and potentially taken one from Max, reducing the distance by 3. Instead they went with a strategy that left Leclerc with 8 points instead 12. In addition, Ferraro's inaction brought Sainz so close to Leclerc that they can not easily motivate it publicly if they ask Carlos to "take one for the team". 

Seriously? Sacrificing good WCC points and a podium for Saint Charles? Awful idea. I doubt that even Ross Brawn would do that.

[Primo]

Seriously? Sacrificing good WCC points and a podium for Saint Charles? Awful idea. I doubt that even Ross Brawn would do that.

I read the title wrong, thought it was about discussing what is needed for Max to NOT become a champion. The actual thread title is not really a topic of discussion, it is arithmetic. 

My answer was therefore about what possibilities there are for someone other than Max to become a WDC. 

[Henri Greuter]

I think that he won't be able to equal the record of MS in 2002: claiming the title with 6 races yet to go.

[Rediscoveryx]

Converted to today's point scoring system; what is the greatest comeback-to-title-win achieved in the WDC so far?

 

That might put the situation into context is someone (else) can bother doing the math.

Edited by Rediscoveryx, 29 August 2022 - 10:55.

[Henri Greuter]

Converted to today's point scoring system; what is the greatest comeback-to-title-win achieved in the WDC so far?

 

That might put the situation into context is someone (else) can bother doing the math.

 

 

Hunt in 1976 is often mentioned as such. But that involved a number of DQ's being overturned etc and saw Lauda no part of some races.

[eab]

I think that he won't be able to equal the record of MS in 2002: claiming the title with 6 races yet to go.

It's impossible. Unless you count the sprint in BRA also as one of those 6, then it ís possible, but still highly unlikely. (And of course, bar WDC-disqualifications for VER's nearest pursuers.)

[Werbank]

Alonso's 2012 gets put more and more into perspective with every year that goes by.

[eab]

Converted to today's point scoring system; what is the greatest comeback-to-title-win achieved in the WDC so far?

 

That might put the situation into context is someone (else) can bother doing the math.

Such a question cannot be answered unambiguously. Not only do different point systems not convert 1-on-1 to another, you also have to consider how many points can still be gained etc etc. Different approaches, different metrics, different outcomes.

[Rediscoveryx]

Such a question cannot be answered unambiguously. Not only do different point systems not convert 1-on-1 to another, you also have to consider how many points can still be gained etc etc. Different approaches, different metrics, different outcomes.

 

Yeah, but... no, but... yeah.

 

But an approximation should be possible, right? 

[Paa]

If Leclerc gets maximum points in every race from now on (win, fastest lap, sprint win)

 

- Max can finish 3rd every race and still win the title

- Max can have a DNF, then finish 2nd every race and still have the title 

 

 

If Max gets 41 points more than Charles during the next 4 races, then he will have the title in Japan (with 4 races to go).

If Max gets 15 points more than Charles during the next 5 races, then he will have the title in USA (3 races to go)

If Max gets 11 points less than Charles during the next 6 races, then he will have the title in Mexico ( 2 races to go)

 

 

edit: of course these are ignoring Checo. But you can just add 5 point more to get it relative to Perez.

Edited by Paa, 29 August 2022 - 12:46.

[William Hunt]

A more interesting question is: what would it take for Max to still lose the title?  The answer is: swap the staff of Red Bull & Ferrari who decide the strategy.

Edited by William Hunt, 29 August 2022 - 12:48.

[Marklar]

Leclerc is 12.25pts/race back, Max could probably almost take the whole rest of the season off and still win it

[P123]

Leclerc is 12.25pts/race back, Max could probably almost take the whole rest of the season off and still win it

 

Basically Ferrari would need to become like Red Bull, and Charles as consistent as Max.  But even a clone wouldn't derail Max now.

 

If Spa is a pointer towards future races, then I'd expect a more likely scenario would be Charles fighting with the Mercs rather than with Max.

[William Hunt]

Leclerc is 12.25pts/race back, Max could probably almost take the whole rest of the season off and still win it

 

True but this is something I've wondered about. In the past there were drivers who won the world title before season's end. Why didn't they just skip the final races? In modern times I can understand why: they're paid a lot to do all races, organisers expect that driver to be  there, commercial interest etcetera

 

But in a time when F1 was so dangerous that you risked your life ('50s, '60s, '70s) it was less evident to risk your health if you had the title already sealed.