79 replies to this topic

[Risil]

A spin on the "who will be the next Grand Prix winner" thread. Over the years F1 has always had drivers who win the odd race but not really threaten to be one of the sport's big names. We can argue the details but whether it's by driving talent or racecraft or getting into the right car, some drivers rack up victories and some (most) end their career with few or none.

 

I'm choosing to define "regular Grand Prix winner" loosely but I mean either winning 1-3 races every year, or perhaps 4-5 in a single year if the car is good. Alternatively, drivers whose results land them in a bracket containing Hamilton, Verstappen, Leclerc, Vettel, probably Perez, pre-wilderness Alonso, pre-McLaren Ricciardo, or Mercedes-era Bottas.

 

What do you think? Tick all the drivers you think will break through.

[Heyli]

Very difficult.

 

Russell is an easy one. I dont see anyone in Red Bull or Ferrari apart from Verstappen and LeClerc (the gap with their team mates seems to be too big).

 

Then the next best thing would be Norris, but can McLaren get close enough in the coming years? 

 

Would be nice if there were a few more moves between the top teams...

[IrvTheSwerve]

Very difficult to say and obviously dependent on car pace - but I went for Russell, Norris and Sainz (who will likely win a race or two at least every year if Ferrari stay half-decent).

 

The interesting ones for me are Ocon and Gasly (if he moves to Alpine). Alpine could be a force to be reckoned with in a year or two, I certainly think Ocon has the talent to make the most of that pace.

[Anderis]

It's sort of impossible to predict because sometimes you can get a very good car out of nowhere and become a regular winner or sometimes you may have the talent to be one but get stuck in the wrong teams for years. Also F1 is in large part about confidence and that can be affected by various sorts of things that are impossible to predict in the long term.

 

Of the drivers in the poll I have the most trust in Russell, Norris and Piastri but there are no guarantees. There may be bigger talents coming along in the next few years that will take all the race winning seats the current generation was hoping to get in the future.

[noikeee]

Russell and Norris seem like solid established talents that will eventually find themselves in this position, I see nobody else capable of this unless - and this sometimes happens to someone but you can't predict who - they luck out into a dominant seat. Think of people like Webber and Bottas in the past, any solid random midfielder like an Ocon or a Gasly or an Albon could end up in this position. Sainz is also already pretty close to it, if Ferrari build a missile and stop committing weekly owngoals, he's a regular winner that is sometimes close enough to Leclerc to pick up his scraps.

 

I think both Piastri and Herta are talented, but there are problems here. Piastri's got an immediate sink or swim benchmark in Lando, he's good enough not to sink too low but unless he can beat Lando he's not going to get access to such a situation anytime soon. He can do it but the odds aren't great. Herta's best case scenario is he eventually gets promoted... errrrrm, to be Max Verstappen's team-mate? Good luck with that. Perez has got the best RB car in a long time and he's not winning regularly...

 

I'll vote Lando & George.

[Rediscoveryx]

Russell and Lando are the only two obvious candidates. Other drivers will need luck (well, technically that goes for Lando and George as well of course) and/or are difficult to judge.

[KWSN - DSM]

I think you put the bar for regular winner too high, unless in a close to dominant car you have to be either Verstappen or Hamilton to win -  races in a season. A driver winning several races over several seasons is a regular winner as I see it, Ricciardo for all his troubles last 2 seasons won a race last year, and have accumulated 8 over his career, that is a regular winner to me.

 

This season have sort of brought Sainz down a little in my view of him, he is at Ferrari which this and next season can see him add to his win totals making him a regular winner, of the listed I chose

 

Russel

Norris

Gasly *

 

* Because I think he has the talent, need the car to show it.

[pacificquay]

Lando, Russell, Albon, Oscar and maybe Herta

[JimmyClark]

If you define a regular winner as a driver with an average of 1-3 wins a year, and a decent driver has a career of at least 10 years, then you expect them to win at least 20 races in their career (I personally wouldn't really count the odd season in a decent car as a 'regular winner', eg. Ricciardo or Webber). 

 

Since 2000, the only drivers to manage to hit this milestone are Mika Hakkinen, Kimi Raikkonen, Nico Rosberg, Max Verstappen, Fernando Alonso, Sebastian Vettel and Lewis Hamilton (Schumacher had already hit it before 2000). 

 

In that time there have been ~97 new drivers in the sport, so that's very low chances of becoming a 'regular winner'. 

 

I think Russell, Leclerc and Norris the the current outstanding candidates for this, but history shows at least one promising driver of an era ends up in the wrong teams and their success doesn't live up to their potential. I fear this might be Leclerc in this case, but I hope I'm wrong. 

 

In terms of these drivers who will win a few races though, I would go for the three I mentioned, plus Piastri. Anybody else would need the luck of being a #2 driver in a top team or their team doing something unexpected. 

[Mat13]

Russell, Norris if McLaren get their **** together, Gasly provided he gets away from AT/RB and into a team capable of winning. The others are all fluff.

Edit: don’t know anything about Piastri or Herta.

Edited by Mat13, 05 September 2022 - 13:47.

[WOT]

Really difficult question. In my opinion, it depends on who is in what team. By that I mean that only one or two teams in this rubbish day and age of F1 have a chance of winning on a "regular" basis. Sorry for the doom and gloom, but that's just the way I feel about this crap Sport "Business" at this point in time. Until the "Business" disintegrates, and the Sport is reinstated where fair competition is allowed, we are going to keep seeing this ugly repetition.

Edited by WOT, 05 September 2022 - 13:49.

[Frood]

Takuma Sato.

Failing that, Russell most likely. Though I expect the next person to break through and win a load of races might not even be on the grid yet. I reckon it might even be someone like Isack Hadjar.

[Jackmancer]

Could this forum have predicted Irvine or Hakkinen in the mid 90s? Or Webber in the mid 00s? Ricciardo in the early 2010s?

[cyclist]

Norris needs a better car or a switch to RB or Mercedes to become a winner. It's a bit early to call Piastri a winner having not driven 1 GP. He is very talented, but we have seen other mega talented drivers underperform in F1 (Vandoorne comes to mind).

 

Russell has shown enough to see him as a winner, if the Mercedes is good enough.

 

As for Sainz: it is quite obvious he has not got the same race pace as Leclerc, so unless Charles leaves Ferrari or they keep giving him terrible strategies, Sainz will not be a regular winner. The only win he had so far was pretty lucky.

 

Unless Alpine magically turn good in the next year (which I don't think will happen, something is just off about the whole operation, with the Alonso/Piastri saga as the latest example) I don't see either Ocon or Gasly (if he goes there) as winners.

 

All the other are midfield drivers at best.

[Beamer]

I have this feeling that Hamilton fella probably will win a few too...

And we might be on to something with that young Dutch guy?

[RedRabbit]

There's enough drivers capable, but the regulations still haven't produced anything like a widely competitive field.

There have only really been 2 teams in each season capable of winning multiple races since 2014, and just getting a podium is a difficult feat.

The number of wins is also devalued slightly by Vettel, and then Hamilton racking up large numbers in a short time - getting 20 wins in a career used to be a difficult achievement when more drivers had cars to win during the season.

It was quite normal for the champion to only have won 5 or 6 races before in a title winning season.

[RedRabbit]

Gasly, Sainz and Ocon already have a race win, so we know they're capable of bringing it home in front.

Norris and Russell have both led races and lost out through circumstance, so it's likely they would be capable of regular wins.

Not including drivers who already have multiple wins, like Bottas or Ricciardo - their form and longer term futures aren't clear, and it doesn't seem like either of them are going to get race winning cars again.

Checo might get 1 or 2 more in the next couple years, but his F1 career is also winding down, same as the 2 above.

All other drivers haven't shown anything yet at the front to say for sure they could win a few races.

[cpbell]

I went for Sainz, Norris, Zhou and Albon, though I'd love to include George (don't want to make a prediction on him yet).

[Alfisti]

I'll give you the bad news. It'll be max winning a ton for at least 5 years, leclerc and Russell then daylight. Absolute bloody daylight.

Mclaren and alpine will not make wdc competing cars. Mercedes will back him and will bring in a bottas type rather than chase Lando etc.

Its true and you all know it.

So, Russell, that's it.

[Coral]

I voted for Russell, Norris and Piastri. I really hope Max has someone to challenge him over the next few years!

[RedRabbit]

I'll give you the bad news. It'll be max winning a ton for at least 5 years, leclerc and Russell then daylight. Absolute bloody daylight.

Mclaren and alpine will not make wdc competing cars. Mercedes will back him and will bring in a bottas type rather than chase Lando etc.

Its true and you all know it.

So, Russell, that's it.

It doesn't have to be championship challenge for a driver to still win 1-3 races in a season.

I do agree, that I also don't see anyone other than Max winning titles for a while - the combo with RBR is to strong over a season, BUT, it would be great if we can get back to 4 teams pulling off a couple wins each. Even if Max wins the other 10 🤣

[eibyyz]

I misunderstood the question, then I saw the responses.  I think Lando, Esteban and Pierre can have a career similar to Patrese and Boutsen.  I think George Russell can win one WDC, similar to Jenson.  I can see Max Verstappen calling time before he's thirty.  Anything else is Ouija.

[Beri]

My uneducated guess would be that McLaren and Alpine will, one day, fight for regular podium finishes. And thus will be able to get an odd win or so. So I'm counting those drivers, Norris, Piastri, Ocon and Gasly (yep he will make that switch) to win multiple Grands Prix.
Next to the obvious candidates of Russell and Sainz.

Others I can't see at the moment, with their current teams, that it would happen.
But I'm quite happy to see the confidence in Williams and Albon which some of you people seem to have 😉

[KavB]

I went for Russell and Sainz given the teams they drive for.

 

I just can't see McLaren getting back to the front any time soon so I doubt Norris will be a regular winner given his long term contract. I can also see him no longer being considered the hot young driver once his contract ends and if any vacancies arise at a top team around then, then he may no longer be at the front of the queue. 

[smitten]

Regular or frequent?

 

In the hybrid reliability era we've only really seen frequent winners form the top 3 teams and really only Mercedes and Red Bull.  Of them, Red Bull is far more likely to sacrifice the No 2 driver on the alter of their No 1.  Ferrari most likely to self-destruct.

 

So my vote is "I don't know".  Any driver who lands a seat in the top 3 teams could be a frequent winner, but that is at the whim of the driver's market.  Today, you'd have to say Russell, but tomorrow?  Wins from outside the top 3 teams look like they'll be the exception rather than the rule for a few more years yet: sadly!

[Hrco42]

You should have added Leclerc to the poll as well. Because he is definitely not a regular GP winner yet

[Carrinthe]

George Russel:    For sure, probably our hope for some real opposition against Max and potentially a future world champion. He's got the speed, he's got the mentality, he's got the brains, he is in a potentially winning seat and I suspect he is stronger than Max in politics. I think he's more dangerous for Max than Charles.
Lando Norris:       I think he's got the intrinsic speed and racecraft. In his first seasons I think his main weakness was that he was much too critical of himself, really burning himself down to the ground when he made a mistake. Looks like he's improved on that. Now he needs machinerie too complement his talent.

Oscar Piastri:       I think the hype is real, it's a very interesting matchup with Lando and quite dangerous for both. If one or the other wins decisively he could be up for a merc seat when Lewis stops. 

Colton-Herta is an interesting one, he clearly has bundles of talent but he needs to learn to make less mistakes and it is the question how he will adept to F1. My main gripe for seeing him win many races is that when he adepts well at TR he will be promoted in the seat next to Max in his prime,... and I'm sorry, that will not go well for him. For the other drivers I don't have much hope. Sainz is a save pair of hands but he is systematically slower than Charles, Max, Lewis and I suspect the three mentioned above (Piastri after some time). Pierre, Alex, Esteban and probably Zhou are just like Carlos sub-top. They deserve their place on the grid but against the real top dogs they will fall short. Kevin is enjoying himself and does a decent job at Haas but he will not be in a winning seat anymore. Mick and Yuki sometimes show flashes of their talent but for now it's not been enough to earn more seasons in F1. Yuki will be safe for now thanks to Honda, I fear for Mick. He really needs a few fantastic performances to keep his seat. I can't see them winning races with any regularity. 


 

[garoidb]

Fernando Alonso. 

[noikeee]

I'll give you the bad news. It'll be max winning a ton for at least 5 years, leclerc and Russell then daylight. Absolute bloody daylight.

Mclaren and alpine will not make wdc competing cars. Mercedes will back him and will bring in a bottas type rather than chase Lando etc.

Its true and you all know it.

So, Russell, that's it.

 

I think Lando is 100% either becoming a number 2 to Max, or Merc pairs him with George.

 

He's not good enough to beat Max (in my opinion) and he gets on well with him so he'd be a brilliant 2 to him for RB; whilst at Merc I suspect they're not 100% convinced by George's pace, it's good but not Lewis level, now that Lewis has got his head out of his arse after whatever he was doing beginning of the season. Might as well bring in Lando when Lewis retires, and have the 2 Brits fight to death until one emerges as the fastest of the 2 and the next lead driver.

 

Unless Lewis stays for 4 or 5 more years and by then Antonelli has became a star (which is a thing but also may never happen because these things are hard to predict that far in advance with kids).

[messy]

Russell, Norris (if he can ever get into a winning car - I still think he’ll replace Hamilton in time) and Sainz, because two or three wins a season add up to ‘regular winner’ in time I suppose. I think the two Brits are the standouts though, which is nice.

Then you get into Ocon, Gasly and Albon - that generation - and I’m not convinced. The latter two really struggled in their stints at Red Bull, and then settled into a new midfield team-leader role without a decent team-mate, while Ocon has never really convinced me much. I think Gasly and particular Ocon are lucky they’ve already won a race each because I don’t see them adding much to that personally.

I hope they prove me wrong, really I do.

[jpm2019]

Well everything depends on the car. With a bit of luck even KMag could be in it.

 

Based on what we have now I rate Russel highest from that list. Norris is very good too but isn't in a position of being in a top team. 

[jjcale]

Proud to be one and only vote for quick Mick .... he is such a nice lad .... are we absolutely sure he is Michael's son?

[Beri]

Fernando Alonso.

He will never win a Grand Prix anymore. *runs*

[RekF1]

He will never win a Grand Prix anymore. *runs*

You've got the runs?

[Beri]

That too

[masa90]

I have this feeling that Hamilton fella probably will win a few too...

And we might be on to something with that young Dutch guy?

 

My guess is Lewis will not win another gp.

[Ali623]

From most to least likely  (in my opinion)

 

1. Russell - He's at Mercedes, enough said
2. Sainz - He's at Ferrari, needs to do better than this year though and hope they can deliver consistently with the car
3. Ocon - Alpine I feel are the most likely midfield team to 'break' into a frontrunner any time soon. I also wouldn't be surprised to see him go to Mercedes at some point. He's very consistent, possible enough to get at least 1-3 wins in a capable car per season.
4. Norris - Only reason I have him this low is that I don't have much faith in McLaren delivering any time soon 
5. Gasly - If he ends up at Alpine and they deliver, it's possible
6. Schumacher - If he ever ends up at a big team and continues to improve, it's possible
7. Albon - Same as Schumacher

 

Reckon Magnussen will stay at Haas until he retires, so not much hope there. Zhou, Tsunoda, Latifi and Stroll I don't think are good enough to be honest. Impossible to say with anyone not currently in F1.

[Rumblestrip]

I don't think it's primarily about the driver themselves, but more about the seat they can get. Just for comparison, over the last 10 years these are the number of race wins by constructor:

{Mercedes': 106, 'Red Bull': 37, 'Ferrari': 22, 'McLaren': 7, 'Lotus F1': 2, 'Williams': 1, 'AlphaTauri': 1, 'Racing Point': 1}

 

So realistically, you have to be in one of the top three teams. I can't see Ferrari changing anytime soon, there may be a spot at Mercedes if/when Hamilton retires, and we'll have to see how Perez gets on at Red Bull.

 

I'd go for Russell and Lando, assuming he jumps ship from McLaren (and I say that as a McLaren fan). I'm afraid I can't see Sainz being a regular winner though.

[HighwayStar]

The three current drivers I voted for are Russell, Sainz and Norris. Of this trio, I feel most confident about Russell as I think he will stay with Mercedes for many years and his pace relative to Hamilton this year suggests he should be able to win regularly with the right machinery. I also think he is the most likely driver from this crop to become world champion. Sainz seems well placed to gain further wins with Ferrari, although I suspect he is  more likely to have a career like Barrichello or Bottas where he picks up a reasonable number of wins but does not come close to winning the title. Norris is the most unpredictable of the three as he is contracted long term to McLaren, who I am not convinced will provide him with a good enough car to win regularly, but I believe he has the talent to do so and if a top seat becomes available at some stage in the next few years I would expect him to be a serious contender.

 

Of the other drivers, I think Ocon is good enough to drive for a top team as second driver (like Perez at Red Bull now) or might get a chance of another win or two at Alpine in the right circumstances, but regular wins seem a bit of a stretch at this stage. I am less convinced by Gasly, who has already been given a chance at a top team and struggled and also hasn't been great this year, but if he gets the Alpine drive as expected he will have a better chance than several of the other drivers listed. Albon is in a similar position to Gasly, his performances at Williams have generally been impressive and while I don't expect regular wins I think he may be capable of performing well further up the grid.

 

I am not convinced any of the other current drivers have the potential to become regular winners. Magnussen has enjoyed a decent F1 return and is worthy of a grid slot, but I don't think he will find a winning car at Haas or elsewhere. Zhou has acquitted himself reasonably well this season but not to the extent needed to interest the more competitive teams on the grid. Stroll seems heavily dependent on Aston Martin coming good, although if the team does become competitive it would need a stronger driver line up as I do not believe he has serious race winning potential. I think Tsunoda has the driving ability to succeed in F1, but I'm not convinced he has the right mentality - his inconsistency is likely to put the better teams off him, and I can't see him being promoted to Red Bull. Conversely, I'm not convinced Schumacher is quite talented enough to drive for one of the leading teams, but I do think he has a good attitude and should enjoy a solid career in the midfield.

 

Latifi seems a definite no - his performances this season have mostly fallen short of the required standard and I do not expect his F1 career to continue beyond this season.

 

I feel it is too early to judge Piastri and Herta's winning potential in F1 without seeing them race first. Piastri's impressive F2 season suggests he may have the potential to become a regular winner but at this stage it is difficult to tell whether he is the next Leclerc or the next Vandoorne.

Edited by HighwayStar, 05 September 2022 - 21:08.

[ARTGP]

When you consider the car that Verstappen had from 2016-2018, then surely Russell should become an annual GP winner? He has already taken a pole position. 

Edited by ARTGP, 05 September 2022 - 22:09.

[Afterburner]

Russell is the only one for sure. Not convinced any of the others on the list ever will, except maybe Piastri and Herta, but only because they're unknowns and it's way too early to call for either of them.

[pdac]

It depends on how long into the future we're looking. Right now all I can see is Red Bull dominating for the next few seasons. They (with the help of Newey) have cracked this new formula and I they have a top-tier driver in Max. I honestly don't see many GP that Max and Red Bull are not going to win in the short term. So that leads me to say that none of the above will be regular GP winners just yet.

[HeadFirst]

Nobody, I repeat nobody will be a regular winner, as long as Adrian Newey is designing cars for Max at Red Bull. 

[Zoe]

Where is the option "anyone in a RB / Mercedes / Ferrari"?

[Jovanotti]

You should have added Leclerc to the poll as well. Because he is definitely not a regular GP winner yet

Exactly.

[TheFish]

I voted Norris, Russell and Piastri. The Piastri one is more of a guess though.

 

Norris needs to leave McLaren though, signing a long term deal there was stupid.

[IrvTheSwerve]

My guess is Lewis will not win another gp.

That’s a realistic possibility. Who’d have thought that at the end of 2021? 

[RedRabbit]

I don't think it's primarily about the driver themselves, but more about the seat they can get. Just for comparison, over the last 10 years these are the number of race wins by constructor:

{Mercedes': 106, 'Red Bull': 37, 'Ferrari': 22, 'McLaren': 7, 'Lotus F1': 2, 'Williams': 1, 'AlphaTauri': 1, 'Racing Point': 1}

 

So realistically, you have to be in one of the top three teams. I can't see Ferrari changing anytime soon, there may be a spot at Mercedes if/when Hamilton retires, and we'll have to see how Perez gets on at Red Bull.

 

I'd go for Russell and Lando, assuming he jumps ship from McLaren (and I say that as a McLaren fan). I'm afraid I can't see Sainz being a regular winner though.

Wow, this same list next year of race wins in the previous 10 years will have Alpha Tauri, Racing Point, Lotus F1 and Alpine all equal with McLaren on only a single win.

[JG]

Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes drivers only regular winners. McLaren? Nope.

[SenorSjon]

I don't think it's primarily about the driver themselves, but more about the seat they can get. Just for comparison, over the last 10 years these are the number of race wins by constructor:

{Mercedes': 106, 'Red Bull': 37, 'Ferrari': 22, 'McLaren': 7, 'Lotus F1': 2, 'Williams': 1, 'AlphaTauri': 1, 'Racing Point': 1}

 

So realistically, you have to be in one of the top three teams. I can't see Ferrari changing anytime soon, there may be a spot at Mercedes if/when Hamilton retires, and we'll have to see how Perez gets on at Red Bull.

 

I'd go for Russell and Lando, assuming he jumps ship from McLaren (and I say that as a McLaren fan). I'm afraid I can't see Sainz being a regular winner though.

 

McLaren has 8 wins. In your timespan, 7 of those were in 2012. Alpine also has one last year.

 

So to win you have to be in a Mercedes, Red Bull or Ferrari. I expect Mercedes to get better, so the only realistic option is Russell and whoever they get beside him after Lewis retires. The 2nd RB driver is near chanceless if Max keeps this form the next 5 years.