79 replies to this topic

[garoidb]

Proud to be one and only vote for quick Mick .... he is such a nice lad .... are we absolutely sure he is Michael's son?

 

Just because it rhymes doesn't make it true  . He is also Corrinna's son which might explain things .  .. but I agree he is likeable.

[masa90]

I don't think it's primarily about the driver themselves, but more about the seat they can get. Just for comparison, over the last 10 years these are the number of race wins by constructor:

{Mercedes': 106, 'Red Bull': 37, 'Ferrari': 22, 'McLaren': 7, 'Lotus F1': 2, 'Williams': 1, 'AlphaTauri': 1, 'Racing Point': 1}

 

So realistically, you have to be in one of the top three teams. I can't see Ferrari changing anytime soon, there may be a spot at Mercedes if/when Hamilton retires, and we'll have to see how Perez gets on at Red Bull.

 

I'd go for Russell and Lando, assuming he jumps ship from McLaren (and I say that as a McLaren fan). I'm afraid I can't see Sainz being a regular winner though.

 

Haha that shows just how insane the domination of Mercedes and the stranglehold of top 3 was. And next year Mclaren will also drop to just one. Ridiculous stat when you consider and haha to the people who were gloomy when Vettel and Red Bull dominated for 2 seasons

[FortiFord]

Could this forum have predicted Irvine or Hakkinen in the mid 90s? Or Webber in the mid 00s? Ricciardo in the early 2010s?

👍 all it takes is to end up in the right car in the right circumstances.

[TomNokoe]

I know this is a bit petty, but there are a lot of people I see online who don't like Norris, or don't think he's that good. I really can't wait until he starts winning races.

Edited by TomNokoe, 06 September 2022 - 19:34.

[ARTGP]

I know this is a bit petty, but there are a lot of people I see online who don't like Norris, or don't think he's that good. I really can't wait until he starts winning races.

I also don’t really understand the sometimes downright dismissive attitudes towards Norris. I suspect it’s underlying resentment considering that he has ended Ricciardo’s career.

Edited by ARTGP, 06 September 2022 - 19:42.

[ClubmanGT]

Can I nominate Scott McLaughlin at McLaren? 

[eibyyz]

Can I nominate Scott McLaughlin at McLaren? 

 

Why Macca?  Errybody knows that Penske is buying Alpha Tauri...

[PlatenGlass]

Could this forum have predicted Irvine or Hakkinen in the mid 90s? Or Webber in the mid 00s? Ricciardo in the early 2010s?

 

Well definitely Hakkinen. Also Webber looked pretty quick at Jaguar and Williams and it didn't surprise me he could become a race winner. Irvine too looked decent alongside Barrichello when they were both up and coming potentially good drivers. And Ricciardo was obviously fairly quick at Toro Rosso but it wasn't expected he'd beat Vettel in 2014 by many people I imagine.

[PlatenGlass]

My guess is Lewis will not win another gp.

 

A bit of a bold guess I'd say! Mercedes are already looking like they could win this year in the right circumstances, and Hamilton has had the edge on Russell of late I would say, so he's the more likely of the two if it comes up. And next year I'd expect the Mercedes to be closer to the top so there should be opportunities to win races, and perhaps another shot at the title!

[ClubmanGT]

Why Macca?  Errybody knows that Penske is buying Alpha Tauri...

 

At the rate they're hoarding drivers, I'm expecting to wake up signed to McLaren at any day now.

[Beri]

A bit of a bold guess I'd say! Mercedes are already looking like they could win this year in the right circumstances, and Hamilton has had the edge on Russell of late I would say, so he's the more likely of the two if it comes up. And next year I'd expect the Mercedes to be closer to the top so there should be opportunities to win races, and perhaps another shot at the title!

 

Right circumstances translates to; When Red Bull and Ferrari both c*ck up. Because on merit of their speed they cant win a race this year. Even a Grand Prix on a short pitlane delta track with low laptimes did show that Red Bull was still too fast.

So Ill repeat that Hamilton, nor Russell, will win a Grand Prix under normal circumstances. Only when the aforementioned happens; Red Bull and Ferrari both not delivering.

[TheFish]

I know this is a bit petty, but there are a lot of people I see online who don't like Norris, or don't think he's that good. I really can't wait until he starts winning races.

I'm sort of ambivalent towards him. He always plays this jokey character but is also often disrespectful. I also question his motivation to end up in a top team when he's signing long term contracts before a big rule change. If a Ferrari, Merc or Red Bull spot opens up unexpectedly he's not going to be in a position to go to a top team. He's still young and has lots of time, but he isn't going to start winning races in a McLaren.

[JeePee]

I know this is a bit petty, but there are a lot of people I see online who don't like Norris, or don't think he's that good. I really can't wait until he starts winning races.

I might be one of them. I see some posts saying 'put him in the 2nd Red Bull' as if he's going to challenge Max... but I don't think he can do that. The only thing I miss with Norris is that 'spark'. More often than not I think 'come on Lando, do something' instead of 'omg did he just do that?!'.

 

If he proves me wrong it's oke tho!

[SenorSjon]

Right circumstances translates to; When Red Bull and Ferrari both c*ck up. Because on merit of their speed they cant win a race this year. Even a Grand Prix on a short pitlane delta track with low laptimes did show that Red Bull was still too fast.

So Ill repeat that Hamilton, nor Russell, will win a Grand Prix under normal circumstances. Only when the aforementioned happens; Red Bull and Ferrari both not delivering.

 

Out of the last 4 races, Mercedes finished 2nd 3 times. Two times, even with a 2-3 position. 10/15 GP's they have at least one car on the podium. Out of the last 4 races, Perez finished ahead of the Mercs only once. So it is not that hard to imagine Mercedes winning on merit this year.

[Beri]

Out of the last 4 races, Mercedes finished 2nd 3 times. Two times, even with a 2-3 position. 10/15 GP's they have at least one car on the podium. Out of the last 4 races, Perez finished ahead of the Mercs only once. So it is not that hard to imagine Mercedes winning on merit this year.

In those races;
- Ferrari screwed up their tactics
- Perez made mistakes
- Both Ferrari drivers made mistakes

It's safe to say that without this happening, Mercedes would have scored only one podium; at Zandvoort. That is where they really were quick.
On merit of their own speed, they will not win a race this year. Any other expectation is just wishful thinking. Certainly considering there is a point coming up, this season, where the focus of development is being transferred to the 2023 car. And I can imagine that Mercedes would want to do this rather sooner than later, now that third place in the championship is somewhat secured, to get a good 2023 car.

[PlatenGlass]

Mercedes had the measure of Ferrari at Zandvoort it appeared. Plus the Perez Red Bull is well beatable by them. So it really only takes a good race from them and a poor one by Verstappen. Even then, without the VSC etc. Verstappen would have had to work for that win at Zandvoort.

Rarely does one driver win all the races (like Vettel after the break in 2013) so they're well in the ballpark.

[SenorSjon]

In those races;
- Ferrari screwed up their tactics
- Perez made mistakes
- Both Ferrari drivers made mistakes

It's safe to say that without this happening, Mercedes would have scored only one podium; at Zandvoort. That is where they really were quick.
On merit of their own speed, they will not win a race this year. Any other expectation is just wishful thinking. Certainly considering there is a point coming up, this season, where the focus of development is being transferred to the 2023 car. And I can imagine that Mercedes would want to do this rather sooner than later, now that third place in the championship is somewhat secured, to get a good 2023 car.

 

Ferrari screws their tactic all season long. And if on one occasion they don't, their drivers park it in the wall or gravel trap or engines start exploding. Perez is losing bucketloads of time on Verstappen for months now. You can't dismiss it this easily.

[Beri]

I'm not dismissing it. It's exactly what I've been saying what plays Mercedes in their cards. If it weren't for those "issues", then Mercedes would have had a serious bucketload of podium finishes less.

[Marklar]

Russell should be clear, unless Merc never gets competitive again (unlikely), even if Lewis or any future team mate has him under control #2 drivers of top teams score regulary wins (see Perez).

I sort of think Sainz too, there is no Ferrari junior in sigh to replace him for the next 3-4 years, so he will get wins in.

Then it all depends which drivers the teams pick to replace their current "old" drivers with: Herta is going to be on pole position here if he gets the super license. Norris is the most interesting midfield driver atm (Piastri could follow), but we know that top teams often just take drivers like Ocon for that role.

Anyway, I went with Russell, Sainz, Norris and Herta (I'd change the latter to Ocon is he gets no super licence, in my imagination then Norris would go to RB one day, and Ocon would be #2 at Merc until Antonelli is old enough)

[Gareth]

Russell - Merc can build a race winner, he can win with it.

 

Norris - combination of outside chance of McLaren building a race winner, plus chance of landing a RBR/Ferrari/Merc drive.

 

I've discounted Sainz. I think he's a decent top tier team number 2 (or could be, if he could accept he's that, rather than thinking he's a number 1), but no more. Don't think he has the mental strength for it.

 

I've discounted Ocon as I don't believe Alpine build a race winner, or that he gets picked up in a top 3 team.

 

Piastri - I guess I would include on a similar basis to Norris, but multiplied by 0.x where x is the chances of him being a top tier driver (which I'd rate as decent, but obviously not 100% (no one is, coming in to F1)).

 

The rest I guess it comes down to "who gets put in at Ferrari to replace LeClerc/Sainz when the time comes to pin it on the driver for them not winning (Alonso to Vettel, then Vettel to LeClerc, style)?". That's probably not coming from their junior program, as Marklar says. I think there's a high % chance it's Norris or Piastri. Not sure who else it could be?

 

So ended up voting Russell, Noris and Piastri. Would say the chances* are something like 85%, 60%, 30% of it happening, respectively.

 

*percentages calculated by the same people as produced the AWS tyre wear graphics**

 

**have they stopped doing these? or have I started ignoring them so completely I just don't register them on my screen?

[SenorSjon]

Sainz should have won more races by now to be worthy of this trope.

[pdac]

So how are we defining a "regular" winner? One who wins 1 or 2 races each season?

[djparky]

I went with Russell and Sainz as they're the only ones in cars that are likely to win in the next few years

[ARTGP]

Russell should be clear, unless Merc never gets competitive again (unlikely), even if Lewis or any future team mate has him under control #2 drivers of top teams score regulary wins (see Perez).

I sort of think Sainz too, there is no Ferrari junior in sigh to replace him for the next 3-4 years, so he will get wins in.

Then it all depends which drivers the teams pick to replace their current "old" drivers with: Herta is going to be on pole position here if he gets the super license. Norris is the most interesting midfield driver atm (Piastri could follow), but we know that top teams often just take drivers like Ocon for that role.

Anyway, I went with Russell, Sainz, Norris and Herta (I'd change the latter to Ocon is he gets no super licence, in my imagination then Norris would go to RB one day, and Ocon would be #2 at Merc until Antonelli is old enough)

Ocon at Merc? Can’t say I see it….Remember how instead of sacking Bottas, Ocon got dropped from F1? If Merc didn’t care to “save him” then, what will have changed after Hamilton retires? I think Norris (and possibly Piastri) are in a competition for 2nd seats at RB and Merc.

[MikeTekRacing]

I think wins are a bit overrated, as finishing 2nd is pretty hard - and Russel has done it quite a few times. 
It all depends on the car and career choices, but all of the drivers could be winners and people like Russel, Norris etc should easily be regular winners in the right cars

[wj_gibson]

Tbh, I see Russell as the only one of those likely to be a routine race winner like Hamilton or Verstappen. Maybe Norris but I have one or two doubts about his mental resilience. Too early to say re: Piastri, given that some previously dominant junior champions have struggled in F1 (E.g. Magnussen; Vandoorne).

Edited by wj_gibson, 08 September 2022 - 06:56.

[Astandahl]

Latifi of course.

[taran]

I think Bottas deserves some love. He was beating Hamilton a few times each year on average. That is something Perez can't manage with Verstappen and Hamilton had more of a stranglehold on his team than Verstappen.

 

I think a regular winner is a driver who can win races (but not the championship) if and when he has a competitive car. 

Sainz and Perez barely scrape into this category.

Russell hasn't had his chance yet but the way he is hassling Hamilton indicates he has what it takes to go for wins and not accept a meek # 2 role.

Norris is a bit of a mystery. He had two opportunities to win and failed. Doesn't mean he is rubbish but it does leave a question mark IMO.

[Ali623]

Ocon at Merc? Can’t say I see it….Remember how instead of sacking Bottas, Ocon got dropped from F1? If Merc didn’t care to “save him” then, what will have changed after Hamilton retires? I think Norris (and possibly Piastri) are in a competition for 2nd seats at RB and Merc.

 

And Toto got him the Renault drive in 2019, he's a big fan of Ocon and I believe still manages him? Anyway, Ocon is now one of the most consistent drivers on the grid in my opinion, and if people believe Alonso is performing no worse now than when he originally retired back in 2018 then Ocon has been pretty impressive. 

[Astandahl]

Sainz should have won more races by now to be worthy of this trope.

To be noted that his only win arrived because Ferrari screwed Leclerc.