24 replies to this topic

[FortiFord]

With Red Bull winning the WCC and WDC this year, as well as the WDC last year, I realised that either Mercedes or Red Bull have won these titles for the last 13 seasons (14 if you class Brawn/Mercedes as essentially the same team). I believe this is the longest run that we've had in the history of the sport, and based on what we saw this year, it doesn't look likely to end soon. 

 

Which team are most likely to end this run? 

 

The hybrid era has largely been dominated by the works teams and most well resourced teams, which would point to Ferrari being the most likely. However, given the cost cap and the engine freeze as well as Ferrari's whimper of a season and internal turmoil, there is a lot of doubt as to whether they can mount a serious challenge in the next couple of years. 

 

The engine freeze may allow customer teams to be more competitive (as we saw in the last engine freeze), which would put Aston Martin and Mclaren as most likely contenders. Those teams have managed only a handful of wins/podiums between them during the hybrid era. It's hard to see how they could transform into championship winners quickly. 

 

Is Red Bull/Mercedes' winning run problematic for the sport?

 

In my opinion, it's not as long as the seasons are competitive and the races are interesting. Outright domination by one team is what will turn viewers away. 

 

Interested to hear everyone's thoughts. 

[aportinga]

LeClerc in a McLaren.

[macjim]

Probably Ferrari, they're really the only one with resources to do so - but they always find a way of blowing it 

 

It's definitely a problem when we only have two teams able to mount a season long campaign.

 

It's bad enough when we have only three teams likely to win, while there have been some "fluke" wins over the last few years but they've been due to luck or track specific issues, not competitiveness. 

[IrvTheSwerve]

Not much of an issue with winning streaks, it's the nature of how they come about that can be a problem. If they are competitive, then that is fine. 2021 was yet another Mercedes WCC on paper, but at least it was a great season.

[Afterburner]

My money says it'll be a team which hasn't been at the front before. Ferrari and McLaren are the obvious candidates, but Ferrari is in 80's mode, and I think McLaren is spread too thin. Aston Martin's just dumped a ton of money into a new facility and it's bound to come good once Alonso retires so I choose them.

[r4mses]

My money says it'll be a team which hasn't been at the front before. Ferrari and McLaren are the obvious candidates, but Ferrari is in 80's mode, and I think McLaren is spread too thin. Aston Martin's just dumped a ton of money into a new facility and it's bound to come good once Alonso retires so I choose them.

 

Well, that makes Renault/Alpine first in line though ;)

[Beri]

I can't, for the life of me, understand why at this moment 4 people are thinking McLaren could actually be winning it again. That won't happen as long as they are a customer team.

[YorkF1Fan]

Maybe Audi?? logically you'd have to think Ferrari 

[Afterburner]

Well, that makes Renault/Alpine first in line though ;)

Yeah but they're run by idiots.

[danmills]

Ferrari might come good but I don't believe Leclerc has a title long ability to win, too hot and cold added to Ferraris just ballsing it up.

A 46 year old Alonso for Aston. You heard it here..

[MKSixer]

McLaren. Even as a customer team they have a better chance than Ferrari.  Ferrari can't get out of their own way.  This season was a shambles and an embarrassment to all motor racing fans.  

[pdac]

Where's the "None of these" choice?? I can't see any team beating them in the near future and it's quite possible that a new team (or team name) will come along to break the deadlock.

[spa2000overtake]

I thought in april that the 13 years streak would come end Leclerc leading 46 points over Verstappen.
But it is terrible that two teams have been winning championships last 13 years, Ferrari should havewon 2 championships in 2010-2018  and Mclaren had chance 2012 too.
Mercedes was the king of hybrid era 6 years winning 6 drivers titles and 7 construction titles 2014-2021 thanks for the engine freeze and huge wind tunnel advange.
Red Bull looked dominant this year 2022 regulations, however i think that they could be challanged next year if Ferrari could get their strategies right and upgrades too.
Mclaren and Ferrari have been clueless for last 13 years they just dont seem to have an answer against Red Bull or Mercedes.
I really hope we will see Mclaren or Ferrari winning Championships soon, after 15 years of not achieving things.

Edited by spa2000overtake, 01 December 2022 - 00:20.

[YamahaV10]

I thought in april that the 13 years streak would come end Leclerc leading 46 points over Verstappen.
But it is terrible that two teams have been winning championships last 13 years, Ferrari should havewon 2 championships in 2010-2018 and Mclaren had chance 2012 too.
Mercedes was the king of hybrid era 6 years winning 6 drivers titles and 7 construction titles 2014-2021 thanks for the engine freeze and huge wind tunnel advange.
Red Bull looked dominant this year 2022 regulations, however i think that they could be challanged next year if Ferrari could get their strategies right and upgrades too.
Mclaren and Ferrari have been clueless for last 13 years they just dont seem to have an answer against Red Bull or Mercedes.
I really hope we will see Mclaren or Ferrari winning Championships soon, after 15 years of not achieving things.

I agree. I'm a red bull fan but id like to see Ferrari or Mclaren win it.

It is just not good for the sport. I doubt there is any other major pro sports who have had 2 championship winners over 14 years

[Cliff]

I agree. I'm a red bull fan but id like to see Ferrari or Mclaren win it.
It is just not good for the sport. I doubt there is any other major pro sports who have had 2 championship winners over 14 years

Bundesliga is worse. Bayern won 12 times, Dortmund twice.

[SenorSjon]

Ferrari never won a WDC or WCC again after they let their USP go, the test track.

That was the rule they should have vetood

[RedRabbit]

Ferrari never won a WDC or WCC again after they let their USP go, the test track.

That was the rule they should have vetood

You might be onto something here - lack of track testing seems to have coincided with sustained win streaks and very little variety in winners and podiums even.

[SenorSjon]

If you get it right these days, there is less and less the competition can do about it. 

[Huffer]

If you get it right these days, there is less and less the competition can do about it. 

 

Pretty much this. In the zeal to try and equal the playing field, all the FIA have really achieved is to make things more unequal. There's less scope for teams to improve and try to catch up with the team or teams at the front with the current rules. Advantages at the start of the season seem to be pretty much 'baked in'. Even the cost cap is meaningless in this respect as 1) it ignores the facilities, processes and structure that was created before the cap with large budgets and 2) limits the ability of teams to find a better upgrade path.

 

We're stuck with the three historically big spenders in F1 being the top three teams in terms of results fir the foreseeable future. 

[Ali623]

I mean the only team capable of doing so at the moment is Ferrari but they are a long way off, unless they somehow come out with a car that's at least a second clear.

 

Out with that, honestly Audi are probably next in line but not till 2030+ at the earliest by the time they get properly up and running. And Alpine simply don't have the resources/finances to compete at that level. There's no chance a customer team will ever win a championship in this era of F1 so for now that rules out the likes of McLaren/AM.

[Calum]

You need both of the best teams to screw up a rule change to give someone else a shot at a title without at least one of them defending the 13/14 year run.

It will probably take one of them quitting as a factory team before the odds favour the “others”.

Drawn towards Audi or Aston Martin, eventually.

[Sterzo]

In my opinion, it's not as long as the seasons are competitive and the races are interesting.

Agreed.

 

 

Outright domination by one team is what will turn viewers away.

Not this one. There is more to a motor race than the winner alone.

Edited by Sterzo, 01 December 2022 - 10:08.

[PitViperRacing]

Pretty much this. In the zeal to try and equal the playing field, all the FIA have really achieved is to make things more unequal. There's less scope for teams to improve and try to catch up with the team or teams at the front with the current rules. Advantages at the start of the season seem to be pretty much 'baked in'. Even the cost cap is meaningless in this respect as 1) it ignores the facilities, processes and structure that was created before the cap with large budgets and 2) limits the ability of teams to find a better upgrade path.

We're stuck with the three historically big spenders in F1 being the top three teams in terms of results fir the foreseeable future.

To be fair that was the situation before the cost cap as well. There were 2-3 top teams that could outspend everyone to stay at the top.

Still early days for the cost cap, I don't think you can make an assessment for 10-15 years.

[Huffer]

To be fair that was the situation before the cost cap as well. There were 2-3 top teams that could outspend everyone to stay at the top.

Still early days for the cost cap, I don't think you can make an assessment for 10-15 years.

 

A fair point. I guess the only thing I would add to that is that the situation is currently amplified with the cost cap and other limitations. 

 

However, I'm not sure we can really afford to wait a decade or more to get the expected results. 

[RedRabbit]

Ferrari actually have a good chance next year if they can evolve the F-75 successfully, and replace their race operations with just a moderately competent team.

And focusing on achieving the WDC first and foremost.

Binotto resigning may not be the disaster some think.

Red Bull may encounter some in-season development issues with wind tunnel restrictions next year that could just be enough for Ferrari to take the fight to them till the end.