From the latest debrief, Mercedes have confirmed correlation between the simulation and the on track performance.
Feeling a bit more optimistic about next season, even though I don’t expect them to beat Redbull in the first few races.
this was one thing in 2021 which was a BIG issue which Mike spoke about. Redbull have one of the best correlation models from design to race track -which is probably why they so good when they put updates on they just WORK.
I always wonder what to make of "correlation issues". It seems to me that, at least occasionally, it's a BS excuse to cover up more inconvenient explanations.
What I know for sure is that RBR definitely do not have better or even the best correlation models. First, their wind tunnel is outdated (I know a wind tunnel is not the same thing as a correlation model). Second, it occurs to me all teams would like to have the best correlation model - so why don't they just all buy it? Third and foremost, I remember RBR calling correlation issues whenever they were slower than the respective Merc at the start of the new season (i.e. 8 years in a row).
Perhaps my view on things is too simple, but I reckon correlation problems don't need years to be solved. If the model is incorrect, you adjust or finetune it until it's reliable or you eventually invest in a new model, no?
In Merc's case, I have no doubt at some point they did have correlation issues. The introduction of the W13 comes to mind - no way you introduce such a unique design if the models don't tell you it's great. Ever since, it more or less looks like they don't understand their car/the regulations though. Whenever the W14 doesn't perform, the team seems genuinely surprised and people like Toto tell the press they can't wait for a totally new approach next year. Instead of "correlation issues", they might not fully understand certain effects of their car design, e.g. the mechanics of the suspension. As a result, could it be they don't know what to look for in the model's output or they haven't fed the model with relevant data in the first place?
In the meantime, they tried a new floor late in the season and apparently, it doesn't work. That doesn't bode well for the W15.