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2023 Mercedes-AMG W14


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#4801 renzmann

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 09:37

From the latest debrief, Mercedes have confirmed correlation between the simulation and the on track performance.
Feeling a bit more optimistic about next season, even though I don’t expect them to beat Redbull in the first few races.

 

 

this was one thing in 2021 which was a BIG issue which Mike spoke about.  Redbull have one of the best correlation models from design to race track -which is probably why they so good when they put updates on they just WORK.  

I always wonder what to make of "correlation issues". It seems to me that, at least occasionally, it's a BS excuse to cover up more inconvenient explanations.

 

What I know for sure is that RBR definitely do not have better or even the best correlation models. First, their wind tunnel is outdated (I know a wind tunnel is not the same thing as a correlation model). Second, it occurs to me all teams would like to have the best correlation model - so why don't they just all buy it? Third and foremost, I remember RBR calling correlation issues whenever they were slower than the respective Merc at the start of the new season (i.e. 8 years in a row).

 

Perhaps my view on things is too simple, but I reckon correlation problems don't need years to be solved. If the model is incorrect, you adjust or finetune it until it's reliable or you eventually invest in a new model, no?

 

In Merc's case, I have no doubt at some point they did have correlation issues. The introduction of the W13 comes to mind - no way you introduce such a unique design if the models don't tell you it's great. Ever since, it more or less looks like they don't understand their car/the regulations though. Whenever the W14 doesn't perform, the team seems genuinely surprised and people like Toto tell the press they can't wait for a totally new approach next year. Instead of "correlation issues", they might not fully understand certain effects of their car design, e.g. the mechanics of the suspension. As a result, could it be they don't know what to look for in the model's output or they haven't fed the model with relevant data in the first place?

 

In the meantime, they tried a new floor late in the season and apparently, it doesn't work. That doesn't bode well for the W15.



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#4802 mstar

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 10:51

I always wonder what to make of "correlation issues". It seems to me that, at least occasionally, it's a BS excuse to cover up more inconvenient explanations.

 

What I know for sure is that RBR definitely do not have better or even the best correlation models. First, their wind tunnel is outdated (I know a wind tunnel is not the same thing as a correlation model). Second, it occurs to me all teams would like to have the best correlation model - so why don't they just all buy it? Third and foremost, I remember RBR calling correlation issues whenever they were slower than the respective Merc at the start of the new season (i.e. 8 years in a row).

 

Perhaps my view on things is too simple, but I reckon correlation problems don't need years to be solved. If the model is incorrect, you adjust or finetune it until it's reliable or you eventually invest in a new model, no?

 

In Merc's case, I have no doubt at some point they did have correlation issues. The introduction of the W13 comes to mind - no way you introduce such a unique design if the models don't tell you it's great. Ever since, it more or less looks like they don't understand their car/the regulations though. Whenever the W14 doesn't perform, the team seems genuinely surprised and people like Toto tell the press they can't wait for a totally new approach next year. Instead of "correlation issues", they might not fully understand certain effects of their car design, e.g. the mechanics of the suspension. As a result, could it be they don't know what to look for in the model's output or they haven't fed the model with relevant data in the first place?

 

In the meantime, they tried a new floor late in the season and apparently, it doesn't work. That doesn't bode well for the W15.

 

 

Mike elliot mentioned in 2022 that they have realised there CFD/Correlation models have fallen back "compared to our competiors" we discussed this quote in this thread in 2022.  While Merc was winning Redbull/mclaren/ferrari invested in there infrastructure and they got a better correlation from design to race track -they can predict this much better.  Hence why redbull come to the race track with very optimum setups and turn around issues very quickly from friday to saturday.  I have see a high % in high 90s of updates from Redbull/Ferrari/mclaren working on track where Merc have a hit/miss when upgrades get on the car -much lower than the other teams like Redbull/Mclaren/Ferrari/Alpine.  



#4803 renzmann

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 14:02

Mike elliot mentioned in 2022 that they have realised there CFD/Correlation models have fallen back "compared to our competiors" we discussed this quote in this thread in 2022.  While Merc was winning Redbull/mclaren/ferrari invested in there infrastructure and they got a better correlation from design to race track -they can predict this much better.  Hence why redbull come to the race track with very optimum setups and turn around issues very quickly from friday to saturday.  I have see a high % in high 90s of updates from Redbull/Ferrari/mclaren working on track where Merc have a hit/miss when upgrades get on the car -much lower than the other teams like Redbull/Mclaren/Ferrari/Alpine.  

Honest question: Are you saying Merc have been working with outdated correlation models for almost two years now? Is it so hard to update them?



#4804 gillesfan76

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 14:37

 

Perhaps my view on things is too simple, but I reckon correlation problems don't need years to be solved. If the model is incorrect, you adjust or finetune it until it's reliable or you eventually invest in a new model, no?

 

That assumes that there is some sort of linearity that you could apply to the adjustment. Maybe not necessarily linear but if parametric then defined by an equation that the adjustment can follow. For example you say you adjust or finetine, that’s fine and that adjustment could be reverse engineered to fit and bridge the correlation delta between model and reality. But you can’t assume then that if you modify the model with that adjustment, then the real version is still going to correlate. So the adjustment or fine tune you do at one point, may no longer apply as soon as you change the aero model. That’s what I believe they’re referring to with correlation problems. So imagine you take a model and you see that the car on track deviates by X percent. So you adjust the model, maybe you apply a certain factor and sure, now that model correlates to the car on track. Then you do some aero bits and bobs to the model and the wind tunnel is showing great performance, so you apply to the real car and it no longer correlates, even with the adjustment you did on the first version.



#4805 cbo

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 16:12

Mike elliot mentioned in 2022 that they have realised there CFD/Correlation models have fallen back "compared to our competiors" we discussed this quote in this thread in 2022. While Merc was winning Redbull/mclaren/ferrari invested in there infrastructure and they got a better correlation from design to race track -they can predict this much better. Hence why redbull come to the race track with very optimum setups and turn around issues very quickly from friday to saturday. I have see a high % in high 90s of updates from Redbull/Ferrari/mclaren working on track where Merc have a hit/miss when upgrades get on the car -much lower than the other teams like Redbull/Mclaren/Ferrari/Alpine.


I would assume that the same data is fed into the simulators, also compromising the value of sim-work by sim-drivers?

In that case, you loose a lot of otherwise valuable data compared with teams that have a more solid data modelling.

#4806 pdac

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 17:01

Honest question: Are you saying Merc have been working with outdated correlation models for almost two years now? Is it so hard to update them?

 

It's a good excuse when your bosses ask "why is our car not as good as the others" to say "oh, it's not my fault, it's just that there are problems with the correlation of the data".



#4807 CSF

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Posted 07 November 2023 - 18:17

It's a good excuse when your bosses ask "why is our car not as good as the others" to say "oh, it's not my fault, it's just that there are problems with the correlation of the data".

 

 

"Well Toto, you started taking massive dividends you see......"  :kiss:  :stoned:



#4808 mstar

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Posted 08 November 2023 - 09:06

Honest question: Are you saying Merc have been working with outdated correlation models for almost two years now? Is it so hard to update them?

 

Read what mike said in 2022.  He said they have fallen behind in modelling design to race track performance over the years and they are trying to cut the gap by investment.  What that means who knows?



#4809 pdac

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Posted 08 November 2023 - 17:26

"Well Toto, you started taking massive dividends you see......"  :kiss:  :stoned:

 

Oh, rule number one in the book of how to avoid losing your job ... don't put the blame for anything on your boss.



#4810 lewislorenzo

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Posted 17 November 2023 - 15:58

Looks better than in Brazil

#4811 MortenF1

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Posted 17 November 2023 - 16:34

And Hamilton looked and sounded atleast content with the car.

#4812 lewislorenzo

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Posted 17 November 2023 - 21:01

And Hamilton looked and sounded atleast content with the car.


Until tomorrow when the setup is changed😂

#4813 MortenF1

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 05:29

Eight tenths to Russell??

#4814 mattrobf1

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 06:41

Eight tenths to Russell??


Lewis only did one warm up lap, Russell did 2.

#4815 Boxerevo

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 09:33

Don't know how to express that but i didn't expected and expected too that it happening.

 

Poor job by Lewis/Merc side.



#4816 TomNokoe

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 09:46

Interesting that their drag issues seem to disappear when they can run the car low. Suggests the inherent concept isn't draggy. Seen this a few times this year.

#4817 Bliman

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 09:52

Interesting that their drag issues seem to disappear when they can run the car low. Suggests the inherent concept isn't draggy. Seen this a few times this year.

Maybe because they can lessen the front and rearwing. After all you create more downforce by the floor.



#4818 Lowgrip

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 09:56

Interesting that their drag issues seem to disappear when they can run the car low. Suggests the inherent concept isn't draggy. Seen this a few times this year.


That's why it was very potent in their simulated world(beautiful unlike the real world).

#4819 mclara

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 10:15

Maybe because they can lessen the front and rearwing. After all you create more downforce by the floor.

 

Interesting that their drag issues seem to disappear when they can run the car low. Suggests the inherent concept isn't draggy. Seen this a few times this year.

Mercedes was running more front and rear wing in many races last year because they had problems with the floor.

I don’t know if that has been the case this year.



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#4820 w1Y

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Posted 18 November 2023 - 20:21

Interesting that their drag issues seem to disappear when they can run the car low. Suggests the inherent concept isn't draggy. Seen this a few times this year.


They aren't using zero pods anymore are they?

I would guess the number 1 or 2 focus of moving away from that was because of the drag

#4821 lewislorenzo

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Posted 19 November 2023 - 07:40

Car was decent today. Shame both drivers had a stinker. Much better showing than in Monza on the low DF package

#4822 renzmann

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Posted 19 November 2023 - 10:02

You guys are more up to date than I am. I keep reading next year's car will be very different. Other than your usual rumors, has there been any information from the team on what they do want to change specifically (e.g. "Red Bull's design", "floor will be completely new", "we need to work on suspension", "get rid of rudiments from the zero pod design",...)?



#4823 SteveHam

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Posted 19 November 2023 - 10:07

You guys are more up to date than I am. I keep reading next year's car will be very different. Other than your usual rumors, has there been any information from the team on what they do want to change specifically (e.g. "Red Bull's design", "floor will be completely new", "we need to work on suspension", "get rid of rudiments from the zero pod design",...)?


No one knows for sure apart from drivers and the design team of course but from comments made throughout the year from Drivers, James, Toto it will be a completely different concept with a change in cockpit position as requested by Lewis with new rear suspension, sidepods, floor and big work with the engine department to change cooling gearbox position for balance etc.

Everything that has been done to this car has been added on to a chassis they were stuck with.

#4824 lewislorenzo

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Posted 19 November 2023 - 14:28

Hopefully they solve the fundamental issues for next year

#4825 mclara

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Posted 20 November 2023 - 10:16

Hopefully they solve the fundamental issues for next year

With a new concept one would hope they dont turn up with fundamental issues.

Either way it will take a lot of time to get the maximum out of the package. So I don’t expect them to be fighting for wins until the end of next season when RB once again switches focus. 



#4826 lewislorenzo

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Posted 25 November 2023 - 17:06

Glad to see the back of this peaky car…although I said that last year. Only seems to work for one driver each weekend and its pace varies from session to session. George was rapid in P3

They can’t make another dud next year can they?

#4827 mclara

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Posted 25 November 2023 - 19:25

Glad to see the back of this peaky car…although I said that last year. Only seems to work for one driver each weekend and its pace varies from session to session. George was rapid in P3

They can’t make another dud next year can they?

The W13 and W14 have been particular bad when it comes to consistency but Mercedes has had a habit of making peaky cars so I would not be suprised if thats the case next year as well. Although not as bad as this.



#4828 pdac

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Posted 25 November 2023 - 20:50

Glad to see the back of this peaky car…although I said that last year. Only seems to work for one driver each weekend and its pace varies from session to session. George was rapid in P3

They can’t make another dud next year can they?

 

Are you issuing a challenge to them?



#4829 EndlessMotion

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 14:33

Farewell W14, don't let the door hit you on the way out



#4830 MasterOfCoin

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 14:35

Farewell W14, don't let the door hit you on the way out

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#4831 ToniF1

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 14:45

We have 8 vs 15 podiums last year and zero vs one win ? Worse than a shitbox.

#4832 Mercstar

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 14:48

It's concerning that after 24 races, the team is still not able to get both cars in the sweet spot; Anyhow, glad to see the back of the W14.

#4833 FLB

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 14:56

Mercedes Grand Prix's first winless year since 2012.



#4834 JonathanProc

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 14:59

Mercedes Grand Prix's first winless year since 2012.


2011.

Rosberg won Malaysia 2012.

#4835 DW46

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 15:01

2011.

Rosberg won Malaysia 2012.


China ;)

#4836 JonathanProc

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 15:09

China ;)


True, misread the wiki. I did think Malaysia sounded off.

Glad to see the end of this flawed car concept. If the team show up with a RB/McLaren concept car at winter testing it'll give me a lot of confidence.

#4837 DW46

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 15:11

True, misread the wiki. I did think Malaysia sounded off.

Glad to see the end of this flawed car concept. If the team show up with a RB/McLaren concept car at winter testing it'll give me a lot of confidence.


If any team are within 0.3s in pre season I’ll take it. 😂

#4838 RoryFormula1

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Posted 26 November 2023 - 15:32

What a trash season (by the standards, I’m sure set by leadership). I honestly have no hope for them to be competitive for 1st next year and can absolutely see them fall consistently behind Ferrari and McLaren. I do not think Toto is a good leader for this situation. Zero pod should have been trashed in April 2022, pit stops are still way too slow, and strategy sucks. The last two are almost cost free but they still haven’t addressed them.

#4839 mstar

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Posted 27 November 2023 - 12:05

What a trash season (by the standards, I’m sure set by leadership). I honestly have no hope for them to be competitive for 1st next year and can absolutely see them fall consistently behind Ferrari and McLaren. I do not think Toto is a good leader for this situation. Zero pod should have been trashed in April 2022, pit stops are still way too slow, and strategy sucks. The last two are almost cost free but they still haven’t addressed them.

 

I don;t rate Toto.  I said before the guy is close to multi-millionaire/billionaire type.  Also has a lot of business interests outside F1 which he is either CEO/Board member/owner etc etc.  I cannot believe anyone can tell me this has no impact on his daily F1 life.  He did not spot or start planning for regs after the winning years.  Horner and Redbull started to plan BEFORE 2021 way earlier for the new regs as they knew this be the chance to get back on top and they did.  In 2022 we heard Mike saying they fallen back on investiment for design tools etc so i guess Toto should of asked the question to all the team "Where can i put more money in to get us ahead of the competitors, what R&D tools, people do you need" Redbull went on a massive recruitment of aero engineers in 2019/2020/2021 and i hardly heard much from mercedes.  I guess they thought the people who left are replaceable but this meant they was caught out as you cannot replace key Aero/Engine people.  


Edited by mstar, 27 November 2023 - 12:07.


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#4840 chrcol

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Posted 27 November 2023 - 12:14

I don;t rate Toto.  I said before the guy is close to multi-millionaire/billionaire type.  Also has a lot of business interests outside F1 which he is either CEO/Board member/owner etc etc.  I cannot believe anyone can tell me this has no impact on his daily F1 life.  He did not spot or start planning for regs after the winning years.  Horner and Redbull started to plan BEFORE 2021 way earlier for the new regs as they knew this be the chance to get back on top and they did.  In 2022 we heard Mike saying they fallen back on investiment for design tools etc so i guess Toto should of asked the question to all the team "Where can i put more money in to get us ahead of the competitors, what R&D tools, people do you need" Redbull went on a massive recruitment of aero engineers in 2019/2020/2021 and i hardly heard much from mercedes.  I guess they thought the people who left are replaceable but this meant they was caught out as you cannot replace key Aero/Engine people.  

This is how top organisations often can lose their position, they get accustomed to success, let their best people go, as they mistakenly think its them themselves not the people that got them up there.



#4841 lewislorenzo

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Posted 28 November 2023 - 13:24

Good riddance

#4842 Speedometer

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Posted 28 November 2023 - 13:31

As i have posted in the Merc team thread, Merc really need to sort their pitstops out.  It's costing the drivers vital time in the races.  7th overall for a team of Merc 's stature is unforgivable.

 

DHL Fastest Pit Stop Award (inmotion.dhl)



#4843 mstar

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 09:01

As i have posted in the Merc team thread, Merc really need to sort their pitstops out.  It's costing the drivers vital time in the races.  7th overall for a team of Merc 's stature is unforgivable.

 

DHL Fastest Pit Stop Award (inmotion.dhl)

 

Ron meadows needs to go.  He has unable to whip the team into shape when he is on the pitwall seeing how slow we are in the pits and in 9 years we never been in top 3 for pitstops.  Really i wonder what this guy actually does other than going to stewards when his team/driver is in trouble



#4844 monolulu

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Posted 23 December 2023 - 13:17

Interesting interview with James Allison on the W13 & W14.

https://www.the-race...es-made-on-w14/



#4845 RekF1

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Posted 25 December 2023 - 00:34

George Russell was really good in 'Vienna Blood'. Great series

#4846 DW46

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Posted 25 December 2023 - 09:34

And he was amazing in Toy Story, wonder if it says Toto on his boot.

#4847 ToniF1

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Posted 25 December 2023 - 12:56

Interesting interview with James Allison on the W13 & W14.

https://www.the-race...es-made-on-w14/

Great read. What we mentioned here before, they went to low last year and to high this year. Good thing is that both drivers were saying the same thing about rear instability and drive in instability.



#4848 lewislorenzo

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Posted 27 December 2023 - 08:59

Great read. What we mentioned here before, they went to low last year and to high this year. Good thing is that both drivers were saying the same thing about rear instability and drive in instability.


So it will be optimal height for next year then😅

#4849 chrcol

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Posted 29 December 2023 - 02:06

So next year

 

.

 

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