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Guess the Pole 2023: Bahrain


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 23 February 2023 - 15:13

Welcome to the 2023 Guess the Pole season!
Minor changes to the technical regulations means presumably smallish changes to the pole times, given similar conditions.
One new GP this season, in orgiastic and gluttonous Las Vegas in November. Qatar is also making a return. But plenty of season to go before these races!

Season opener: The Bahrain layout is the same as usual, but the season opener is scored as a modified layout, with doubled time spans.

How to enter: Just submit your guess for what the pole time will be, and who you think will take pole.
Grid penalties are ignored if and only if they are due to disciplinary reasons.

Deadline:
Entries are accepted only if they are submitted/edited before First Free Practice.
Entries that are edited after the beginning of First Free Practice but before I have registered the entries will be ignored.

Scoring rules

-The best ten guessers (closest to the actual pole position time) Score points F1 style, 25-18-15-12-10-8-6-4-2-1.

-Precision points are given to every participant whose guess was sufficiently close to the actual pole position time according to this list:

     <-----------Time offsets----------->
Pts  Default   Modified Layout  New Track  [s]
25   - 0.100       - 0.200       - 0.300
18   - 0.200       - 0.400       - 0.600
15   - 0.400       - 0.800       - 1.200
12   - 0.600       - 1.200       - 1.800
10   - 0.800       - 1.600       - 2.400
 8   - 1.000       - 2.000       - 3.000
 6   - 1.200       - 2.400       - 3.600
 4   - 1.500       - 3.000       - 4.500
 2   - 1.800       - 3.600       - 5.400
 1   - 2.500       - 5.000       - 7.500
The first race of the season counts as a Modified Layout unless it's brand new.
A track that wasn't used the previous season also counts as a Modified Layout.
A track that hasn't been used for the previous five seasons counts as a New Track.

-Driver Points are given for correctly guessing the driver to take pole position. The amount of points given depends on the current value of the driver, according to this list:
Pts   Recent qualifying results
18     0 front row starts in the previous five races
13     1 front row start in the previous five races
 9     2 front row starts in the previous five races
 6     3 front row starts in the previous five races
 4     4 front row starts in the previous five races
 3     5 front row starts in the previous five races

2022 final standings

Five latest poles at Bahrain:
Year  Driver       Pole time (s)
2022  Leclerc       90.558
2021  Verstappen    88.997
2020  Hamilton      87.264
2019  Leclerc       87.866
2018  Vettel        87.958

Late 2022 front rows:
GP   Pole  #2  
JAP  Vers Lecl
USA  Sain Vers
MEX  Vers Russ
BRA  Magn Vers
ABU  Vers Pere

Driver values:
Dri  val
Vers   3
Lecl  13
Magn  13
Pere  13
Russ  13
Sain  13
REST  18

2023 data:
                  Time    2022 PP  2021 PP  2020 PP  2023/2022  2023/2021  2023/2020
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH                    0   90.558   88.997   87.264                                
SAU                    0   88.200   87.511   ------                          ------
OZ                     0   77.868   ------   ------               ------     ------
AZE                    0  101.359  101.218   ------                          ------
MIA                    0   88.796   ------   ------               ------     ------
EMI                    0   87.999   74.411   73.609                                
MON                    0   71.376   70.346   ------                          ------
ESP                    0   78.750   76.741   75.584                                
CAN                    0   81.399   ------   ------               ------     ------
AUT                    0   64.984   63.720   62.939                                
GB                     0  100.983   86.134   84.303                                
HUN                    0   77.377   75.419   73.447                                
BEL                    0  104.297  119.765  101.252                                
NED                    0   70.342   68.885   ------                          ------
ITA                    0   80.161   79.651   78.887                                
SIN                    0  109.412   ------   ------               ------     ------
JAP                    0   89.304   ------   ------               ------     ------
QAT                    0   ------   80.827   ------    ------                ------
USA                    0   94.356   92.910   ------                          ------
MEX                    0   77.775   75.875   ------                          ------
BRA                    0   71.674   68.372   ------                          ------
LVE                    0   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ABU                    0   83.824   82.109   95.246                                

2022 data:
                  Time    2021 PP  2020 PP  2019 PP  2022/2021  2022/2020  2022/2019
GP   Pole  #2      (s)      (s)      (s)      (s)       (%)        (%)        (%)
BAH  Lecl  Vers   90.558   88.997   87.264   87.866   101.754    103.775    103.064
SAU  Pere  Lecl   88.200   87.511   ------   ------   100.787     ------     ------
OZ   Lecl  Vers   77.868   ------   ------   80.486    ------     ------     96.747
EMI  Vers  Lecl   87.999   74.411   73.609   ------   118.261    119.549     ------
MIA  Lecl  Sain   88.796   ------   ------   ------    ------     ------     ------
ESP  Lecl  Vers   78.750   76.741   75.584   75.406   102.618    104.189    104.435
MON  Lecl  Sain   71.376   70.346   ------   70.166   101.464     ------    101.724
AZE  Lecl  Pere  101.359  101.218   ------  100.495   100.139     ------    100.860
CAN  Vers  Alon   81.399   ------   ------   70.240    ------     ------    115.887
GB   Sain  Vers  100.983   86.134   84.303   85.093   117.239    119.786    118.674
AUT  Vers  Lecl   64.984   63.720   62.939   63.003   101.984    103.249    103.144
FRA  Lecl  Vers   90.872   89.990   ------   88.319   100.980     ------    102.891
HUN  Russ  Sain   77.377   75.419   73.447   74.572   102.596    105.351    103.761
BEL  Sain  Pere  104.297  119.765  101.252  102.519    87.085    103.007    101.734
NED  Vers  Lecl   70.342   68.885   ------   ------   102.115     ------     ------
ITA  Lecl  Russ   80.161   79.651   78.887   79.307   100.640    101.615    101.077
SIN  Lecl  Pere  109.412   ------   ------   96.217    ------     ------    113.714
JAP  Vers  Lecl   89.304   ------   ------   87.064    ------     ------    102.573
USA  Sain  Vers   94.356   92.910   ------   92.029   101.556     ------    102.529
MEX  Vers  Russ   77.775   75.875   ------   74.758   102.504     ------    104.036
BRA  Magn  Vers   71.674   68.372   ------   67.508   104.829     ------    106.171
ABU  Vers  Pere   83.824   82.109   95.246   94.779   102.089     88.008     88.442

My guess for Bahrain is 90.205 s by Lewis Hamilton.

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#2 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 23 February 2023 - 15:21

89.711 -Perez



#3 mark f1

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Posted 24 February 2023 - 10:41

Verstappen 89.689


Edited by mark f1, 01 March 2023 - 22:00.


#4 DutchQuicksilver

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Posted 26 February 2023 - 13:18

89.643 Max Verstappen



#5 GTA

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Posted 26 February 2023 - 16:36

89.416 CL


Edited by GTA, 01 March 2023 - 23:36.


#6 scheivlak

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Posted 01 March 2023 - 08:33

Verstappen 89.996


Edited by scheivlak, 02 March 2023 - 11:46.


#7 Anderis

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Posted 01 March 2023 - 21:55

89.670 Leclerc


Edited by Anderis, 01 March 2023 - 21:56.


#8 Bleu

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 11:12

90,105 Verstappen



#9 brunopascal

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 16:35

Verstappen 89.500



#10 tourister46a

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 16:59

89.666 Lewis Hamilton



#11 jimjimjeroo

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 18:03

Verstappen. 89.721

#12 LB

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 19:43

89.631 Verstappen



#13 alekracing

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 21:04

Verstappen 90.036



#14 Brawn BGP 001

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 22:19

88.888 Leclerc



#15 Makarias

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Posted 02 March 2023 - 22:49

I'm changing my guess to 89.909 s by Charles Leclerc.



#16 M2000-5

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Posted 03 March 2023 - 06:23

89.213 Verstappen



#17 LB

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Posted 04 March 2023 - 16:14

Why do i get the feeling this might be the highest scoring round ever lol