40 replies to this topic

[YamahaV10]

Not points predictions but just car pace predictions. Basically in race trim because it seems to be all that matters now.

 

It looks like Mercedes is faster than Ferrari in race trim already. After 3 races, they are probably qualifying ahead of Ferrari and are the true #2 behind Red Bull. I think Ferrari will improve their tire degradation a little bit and Aston Martin will eb down a little. It will be a dead heat between them for 3rd spot.

 

It remains to be seen how much staying power Aston Martin has. There were a few over achieving teams out of the gate in 2022 too. Alpha Romeo is doing it again this year. Williams is suspiciously strong as well. Aston clearly has more going for it than just that. But at the same time, it is doubtful that it isnt a factor at all. So to say that they will be in a tie for 3rd with Ferrari isn't underestimating them IMO. 

 

1) Red Bull

 

2) Mercedes

 

3) Ferrari - Aston Martin 

 

4) Alpine 

 

5) Alpha Romeo

Edited by YamahaV10, 06 March 2023 - 04:49.

[dreamerBiH]

1. RB

2. AM

3. Ferrari

4. Mercedes

5. Alpine

No major updates in the first three races, hence no big differences to expect apart from track specific differences.

AM is nothing like Alfa, AM has an ambitious project and all the right tools. Their car is new, they obviously have a great baseline to work with and they can get only better given the extra wind tunnel time.

[YamahaV10]

1. RB

2. AM

3. Ferrari

4. Mercedes

5. Alpine

No major updates in the first three races, hence no big differences to expect apart from track specific differences.

AM is nothing like Alfa, AM has an ambitious project and all the right tools. Their car is new, they obviously have a great baseline to work with and they can get only better given the extra wind tunnel time.

Yeah I'm probably under estimating how much time it will take. But I do think the process will be faster than it was last year. Because last time was the 1st year of new regs.

You think Ferrari will top Mercedes in race pace ?

[TheFish]

The Ferrari in Charles' hands is much quicker than in Carlos'. It's pretty clear that it's currently...

 

Red Bull

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ferrari

 

Aston Martin

Mercedes

 

I can't see that changing in the next few weeks. Maybe we get a circuit that one team loves/hates but it won't change much.

[dreamerBiH]

I think it is really close between Fer and AM and it will very from track to track.
AM has less raw speed but better tyre deg. Interesitng stuff to watch. I expect also both team to improve and reduce the gap to RB

Edited by dreamerBiH, 06 March 2023 - 09:15.

[William Hunt]

Red Bull really seem to be another planet. They could even win all races which would be a disaster for F1. Aston Martin clearly has the 2nd best chassis right now. Mercedes is not even close to Ferrari (or Aston), they have a lot of work to do.

[Ali623]

Red Bull

Aston Martin

Ferrari

Mercedes

 

Aston Martin will only improve, it's a brand new concept they have essentially. Hopefully Ferrari can somewhat sort out their tyre deg. Mercedes are clueless.

[YamahaV10]

Red Bull really seem to be another planet. They could even win all races which would be a disaster for F1. Aston Martin clearly has the 2nd best chassis right now. Mercedes is not even close to Ferrari (or Aston), they have a lot of work to do.

 

Im a Red Bull fan and I agree that it would be a disaster. I like the new regs. But passing is easier so fastest can start almost anywhere and win.

 

Ppl hate t hear it but more parts and configurations should be borderline spec. More spec is the future. 

[messy]

Aston/Racing Point/Force India are, in the last seven or eight years, the absolute kings of in-season development and often start the season really poorly before coming on strong in the second half. This happened in

2015
2018
2019
2022

So the omens are good. When that didn't happen, two of those years were 'pink/green Mercedes' years where clearly they were highly limited on development potential, and 2018 they were fighting to keep the team afloat and still improved in the second half. Last year they went from backmarkers to near front of midfield. They're very impressive on this score.

Red Bull are miles and miles ahead so I'm pretty much banking on this to be honest.

Mercedes are in trouble, I'm so disappointed that they've failed to sustain their 2022 improvements but it goes to show how much easier it is to develop a dog with obvious problems - low hanging fruit, I guess, than it is to actually step back up to the level they want to be from the outset. So they'll improve, bit they need to and I'll be far too late to be a threat.

Ferrari I have little confidence in, their race pace is poor and I don't see them making massive inroads.

So over to Aston, please, to prevent Red Bull from winning every single race.

Edited by messy, 06 March 2023 - 16:19.

[Primo]

I think the extended "show and tell" rules will be very helpful for the teams that are a bit lost. Even if they cannot use the "tells" on they own cars, they might get ideas that helps them in their own development. The rules will also make some teams hesitant to  upgrade parts who's show and tell would expose too much of their more closely guarded secrets and thereby maybe slowing them down relative to others. To me, it seems like a decent attempt to prevent multi-year domination.

In reality though, I guess FIA would have to confiscate the next winning Red Bull, put it into a garage full of tools and let all competitor CTO's in at the same time and allow them dismantle as much as they want. Even with a sledgehammer

[YamahaV10]

Dieter Renkin had some good points on his podcast. Remember in 2021 wheb Tsonoda finished 9th at Bahrian? Everyone said he would get a podium that season.

The Bahrain track is rather unique. He figures Aston will take a step back in Jeddah. And Ferrari will be closer to Red Bull in race pace.

[aportinga]

1. Red Bull 

2. Aston Martin

3. Ferrari*

4. Mercedes

5. Alpine

6. Haas

7. Alfa Romeo

8 Williams

9. McLaren

10. Alpha Tauri

 

*By mid season Ferrari will slip behind Mercedes and Mercedes will start closing the gap to Aston.

[aportinga]

Red Bull really seem to be another planet. They could even win all races which would be a disaster for F1. 

 

McLaren won all in 1988 less Monza which was a 1-2 finish for Berger and Alboreto thants to Senna.

 

The difference is that the racing behind the #1 car today is way better then it was in 1988. 

[dreamerBiH]

I dont see how Bahrain is a specific track aside from the high tyre deg. People assuming that AM will move backwards on the tracks with lower tyre deg are ignoring the fact that this is all relative. If the tyre deg is lower elsewhere, teams have to do less tyre management, but with heavy cars they always have to manage the tyres. The question is only how much can they stress the tyres. AM and Red Bull will always have the advantage until the other cars resolve their issues. Where others can push a bit more due to lower tyre deg, Red Bull and AM will be able to push even harder and the gap will still remain similar due to "tyre advantage".

 

As regards Jeddah, we will see how AM performs, there are some heavy breaking zones where they will have advantage, but straight line speed could hurt them if they cant lower the wing without much compromise. They will probably be strong, but maybe not the clear 2nd best car in the race like in Bahrain. 

Edited by dreamerBiH, 07 March 2023 - 18:03.

[TheFish]

McLaren won all in 1988 less Monza which was a 1-2 finish for Berger and Alboreto thants to Senna.

 

The difference is that the racing behind the #1 car today is way better then it was in 1988. 

They also had 2 legends as their drivers, rather than a legend and a journeyman.

[flyboym3]

It looks like Mercedes is faster than Ferrari in race trim already. After 3 races, they are probably qualifying ahead of Ferrari and are the true #2 behind Red Bull. I think Ferrari will improve their tire degradation a little bit and Aston Martin will eb down a little. It will be a dead heat between them for 3rd spot.

It remains to be seen how much staying power Aston Martin has. There were a few over achieving teams out of the gate in 2022 too. Alpha Romeo is doing it again this year. Williams is suspiciously strong as well. Aston clearly has more going for it than just that. But at the same time, it is doubtful that it isnt a factor at all. So to say that they will be in a tie for 3rd with Ferrari isn't underestimating them IMO.

1) Red Bull

2) Mercedes

3) Ferrari - Aston Martin

4) Alpine

5) Alpha Romeo

Mercedes is faster than Ferrari already?
Hmmm ok.

[Anderis]

5) Alpha Romeo

What about Alfa Tauri?

[dissident]

RB

 

Ferrari

Aston

Mercedes

[Acathla]

RB

 

Ferrari

Aston

Mercedes

THIS. 

 

Mercedes will come back and hopefully Aston won't drop down, but I do think they will be top 4 in the end. Also because Ferrari will find some more pace. 

[jwill189]

Saudi:

 

RB/Ferrari

AM

Mercedes

 

Australia:

 

RB

Ferrari/AM

Mercedes

 

I really think Ferrari's car is best suited for the Saudi track and will give RB trouble.

[George Costanza]

Red Bull really seem to be another planet. They could even win all races which would be a disaster for F1. Aston Martin clearly has the 2nd best chassis right now. Mercedes is not even close to Ferrari (or Aston), they have a lot of work to do.

Was it a disaster when Williams dominance in 1992-1997? Or McLaren 1988?

Edited by George Costanza, 08 March 2023 - 17:16.

[George Costanza]

Red Bull and Aston are definitely top 2. Ferrari is 3rd. Mercedes 4.

[YamahaV10]

1) Red Bull

2) Mercedes

3) Ferrari - Aston Martin

4) Alpine

5) Alpha Romeo

I'm sticking with this. Mercedes will develop faster than last year and be winning races by mid season.

Mercedes is the most reliable car in the field. Aston showed cracks today in reliability and finish. Russell was in the podium.

[Ruudbackus]

Given those first 2 races I think its

1. Red Bul

2. nobody

3. Aston Martin

4. Mercedes

5. Ferrari

6. Alpine

[AlexPrime]

Red Bull looks very ominous for the foreseeable future. Aston should stay strong with more wind tunnel time. Merc is okayish, Ferrari I think strong only in qualy.

[Otaku]

Given those first 2 races I think its
1. Red Bul
2. nobody
3. Aston Martin
4. Mercedes
5. Ferrari
6. Alpine

This

[solochamp07]

I'm sticking with this. Mercedes will develop faster than last year and be winning races by mid season.

Mercedes is the most reliable car in the field. Aston showed cracks today in reliability and finish. Russell was in the podium.

 

YamahaV10, on 06 Mar 2023 - 00:48, said:

1) Red Bull

2) Mercedes

3) Ferrari - Aston Martin

4) Alpine

5) Alpha Romeo

 

You're sticking to it but your top five is six.

 

Also, what races have you been watching? AM is clearly faster and kinder on its tires than anyone else that's not a RB. Alonso gapped all of them easily in both races, and today Stroll was lapping fast enough to get 4th before his failure. Also, they will only get better as they dial out the drag and fine tune what is still a launch spec car. Added tunnel and CFD time will bring effective upgrades, as they've already shown in the past with success. At this stage for me, Ferrari and Mercedes now have to demonstrate they can match AM to convince me otherwise. I now (unfathomably, a month ago) expect Alonso to be third in most races he finishes, and maybe even win a race here or there. Can't see that right now for MB or the reds, not until one of them make a breakthrough sorting their weaknesses.

 

Edit: also, the "reliability crack" AM showed today which would allow Mercedes to surpass them, ironically, was a failed Mercedes PU.

Edited by solochamp07, 20 March 2023 - 03:26.

[Baddoer]

1. RB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2. AM

3. Mercedes

4. Ferrari

 

5. Alpina

6. Alpha Romeo

 

7. HAAS

8. McLaren

9. Alpha Tauri

10. Williams

[blacky]

and today Stroll was lapping fast enough to get 4th before his failure.

 

Without pitting him, SAI would have overtaken him into turn 1 - just 0,5 behind. His tyres were finished after 12 laps, lapping 1,5 slower than ALO.

[messy]

This feels a lot like 2004 to me. Red Bull are Ferrari, light years ahead on every metric but mainly just able to unleash more and more of an advantage when they really need it - Aston Martin are BAR, Ferrari and Mercedes are Renault and Williams. All three kind of on a similar level fighting for podiums but not able to get anywhere near the top team on race pace. McLaren are, erm, McLaren.

[LolaB0860]

This feels a lot like 2004 to me. Red Bull are Ferrari, light years ahead on every metric but mainly just able to unleash more and more of an advantage when they really need it - Aston Martin are BAR, Ferrari and Mercedes are Renault and Williams. All three kind of on a similar level fighting for podiums but not able to get anywhere near the top team on race pace. McLaren are, erm, McLaren.

But no Minardi and Jordan as Williams and AT are both able to go for point(s)

But Sauber is Sauber and Haas is Jaguar

Edited by LolaB0860, 20 March 2023 - 09:52.

[Ali623]

Red Bull 

 

Aston Martin

Ferrari 

Mercedes

 

Alpine

 

The rest

 

 

It's a shame Red Bull's pace is as mighty as it is, with any hope the secondary group can slowly catch over the course of the season. Would also be good if Alpine could find some time and join that group too. 

[Dolph]

This feels a lot like 2004 to me. Red Bull are Ferrari, light years ahead on every metric but mainly just able to unleash more and more of an advantage when they really need it - Aston Martin are BAR, Ferrari and Mercedes are Renault and Williams. All three kind of on a similar level fighting for podiums but not able to get anywhere near the top team on race pace. McLaren are, erm, McLaren.

This is exactly what I was thinking!!!

[YamahaV10]

You're sticking to it but your top five is six.

Also, what races have you been watching? AM is clearly faster and kinder on its tires than anyone else that's not a RB. Alonso gapped all of them easily in both races, and today Stroll was lapping fast enough to get 4th before his failure. Also, they will only get better as they dial out the drag and fine tune what is still a launch spec car. Added tunnel and CFD time will bring effective upgrades, as they've already shown in the past with success. At this stage for me, Ferrari and Mercedes now have to demonstrate they can match AM to convince me otherwise. I now (unfathomably, a month ago) expect Alonso to be third in most races he finishes, and maybe even win a race here or there. Can't see that right now for MB or the reds, not until one of them make a breakthrough sorting their weaknesses.

Edit: also, the "reliability crack" AM showed today which would allow Mercedes to surpass them, ironically, was a failed Mercedes PU.

Last season we had lots of over achievers at the start of the year too. Bottas was out qualifying Hamilton in a Alfa Romeo.

The super teams are still the super teams. Mercedes even with a so called flawed design , will be more consistent as the tracks change and will have more consistent development compared to AM. AM is still a young team. They will have some slip ups.

[YamahaV10]

Y, ironically, was a failed Mercedes PU.

As Peter Windsor notes on his post race video at 11:30, Russell and Alonso both going full tilt, had basically identical times

https://youtu.be/Vr6QaWqzBMI

[solochamp07]

Super schmuper. You can call them whatever you like. Williams and McLaren were “superteams” not that long ago. The proof is in the tables not the labels.

Are you comparing the 2-race performance of this year’s AM with last year’s Alfa? Seriously? I don’t recall VB troubling the Ferraris much. Mercedes were in a shambles last year, topping Hamilton in Bahrain last year is not gapping the (non-RBR) field at will, as AM have now shown at two very different circuits. AM is for real and I expect them only to get stronger, not drop back. Can’t wait to see. Cheers.

[baddog]

AM have the legs of Merc right now, I mean Alonso is not faster than Lewis, and Stroll is no match at all for either Merc driver.. I expect the divide between those two + Ferrari to be very situational however.

[danmills]

Red Bull

 

 

 

 

 

Leclerc / Alonso

 

Russell / Sainz

Stroll

Lewis

 

Alpine

 

Williams

Alfa

 

Haas

 

 

 

Mclaren

 

AT

Edited by danmills, 21 March 2023 - 02:31.

[lewislorenzo]

Red Bull





Leclerc / Alonso

Russell / Sainz
Stroll
Lewis

Alpine

Williams
Alfa

Haas



Mclaren

AT

Max







Checo











Aston
Merc
Ferrari

Edited by lewislorenzo, 21 March 2023 - 13:14.

[YamahaV10]

You're sticking to it but your top five is six.

 

Also, what races have you been watching? AM is clearly faster and kinder on its tires than anyone else that's not a RB. Alonso gapped all of them easily in both races, and today Stroll was lapping fast enough to get 4th before his failure. Also, they will only get better as they dial out the drag and fine tune what is still a launch spec car. Added tunnel and CFD time will bring effective upgrades, as they've already shown in the past with success. At this stage for me, Ferrari and Mercedes now have to demonstrate they can match AM to convince me otherwise. I now (unfathomably, a month ago) expect Alonso to be third in most races he finishes, and maybe even win a race here or there. Can't see that right now for MB or the reds, not until one of them make a breakthrough sorting their weaknesses.

 

Edit: also, the "reliability crack" AM showed today which would allow Mercedes to surpass them, ironically, was a failed Mercedes PU.

 

Mercedes is on the front row. So if Max drops a gearbox, Mercedes wins. I thought they would be winning by mid season but I might have to revise that to before the summer break. 

Edited by YamahaV10, 01 April 2023 - 06:24.

[YamahaV10]

It looks like Mercedes is really in the drivers seat now for the long tracks. They will probably be right there in Canada too.

Russell passed Ferraris and Astons on merit to get a podium.

Mercedes has jumped Aston to 2nd in WCC points

Edited by YamahaV10, 04 June 2023 - 21:32.