6 replies to this topic

[Makarias]

The standings after Saudi Arabia:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Everyone              202 101

The tension will soon be unbearable.

The entries, with scaling adjustments

The Drivers' list

Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Alon     21,9     14,9    0
Pere     15,5     13,4    0
Stro     13,1      6,7    0
Vers     10,4      8,5    0
Bott      9,3      6,6    0
Albo      8,5      2,0    0
Sain      8,4      6,9    0
Hami      7,9      6,6    0
Russ      7,8      6,4    0
Gasl      6,3      4,3    0
Ocon      5,0      3,6    0
Magn      4,0      2,0    0
Lecl      2,0      1,7    0

Very exciting

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.

Guesses on P1-P5:

Perez                  Verstappen             Alonso                 Russell                Hamilton            
* Potential     568    * Potential     568    * Potential     555    * Potential     543    * Potential     545
* Forecast      495    LolaB0860       505    * Forecast      345    mark f1         280    Brawn BGP 001   302
Makarias        320    * Forecast      495    GTA             200    SpaceHorseParty 270    mark f1         290
noikeee         318    noikeee         468    KWSN-DSM        196    Makarias        258    SpaceHorseParty 285
M2000-5         295    M2000-5         448    noikeee         192    LolaB0860       240    Makarias        271
SpaceHorseParty 290    Makarias        436    Brawn BGP 001   144    M2000-5         239    LB              270
Anderis         288    DutchQuicksilver423    Bleu            140    DutchQuicksilver238    Bleu            257
DutchQuicksilver286    Anderis         422    LB              135    Bleu            225    scheivlak       253
LolaB0860       280    KWSN-DSM        414    scheivlak       135    LB              225    DutchQuicksilver251
LB              271    Brawn BGP 001   400    M2000-5         127    Brawn BGP 001   224    LolaB0860       245
mark f1         270    SpaceHorseParty 400    DutchQuicksilver122    scheivlak       223    M2000-5         244
KWSN-DSM        269    scheivlak       395    Anderis         114    Anderis         215    noikeee         235
scheivlak       268    GTA             390    LolaB0860       110    noikeee         208    * Forecast      230
GTA             265    LB              381    SpaceHorseParty 110    * Forecast      207    Anderis         225
Brawn BGP 001   238    mark f1         380    Makarias        104    KWSN-DSM        201    GTA             210
Bleu            237    Bleu            343    mark f1          90    GTA             170    KWSN-DSM        205
* Current        43    * Current        43    * Current        30    * Current        18    * Current        20

My Perez guess looks far from perfect, but better than yours.

Guesses on P6-P10:

Sainz                  Leclerc                Ocon                   Gasly                  Magnussen           
* Potential     545    * Potential     531    * Potential     529    * Potential     529    * Potential     526
GTA             290    GTA             353    LolaB0860       110    Anderis          91    SpaceHorseParty  50
M2000-5         270    Brawn BGP 001   332    GTA              95    GTA              80    Bleu             35
mark f1         270    mark f1         330    Brawn BGP 001    94    KWSN-DSM         78    LolaB0860        35
DutchQuicksilver258    LB              306    Anderis          92    DutchQuicksilver 72    DutchQuicksilver 26
Anderis         252    scheivlak       305    DutchQuicksilver 91    Brawn BGP 001    70    LB               26
Bleu            252    M2000-5         302    Makarias         85    LolaB0860        65    scheivlak        26
Makarias        244    DutchQuicksilver301    LB               80    noikeee          64    KWSN-DSM         24
KWSN-DSM        240    Anderis         293    mark f1          80    Bleu             62    noikeee          22
scheivlak       232    Bleu            291    scheivlak        80    mark f1          60    Anderis          20
* Forecast      230    SpaceHorseParty 290    noikeee          74    LB               58    Brawn BGP 001    20
SpaceHorseParty 230    Makarias        284    KWSN-DSM         73    scheivlak        58    GTA              20
LB              225    KWSN-DSM        245    Bleu             68    Makarias         54    Makarias         19
noikeee         211    noikeee         241    SpaceHorseParty  65    * Forecast       46    * Forecast       12
Brawn BGP 001   187    LolaB0860       230    * Forecast       46    SpaceHorseParty  45    mark f1          12
LolaB0860       180    * Forecast       69    M2000-5          31    M2000-5          25    M2000-5          11
* Current        20    * Current         6    * Current         4    * Current         4    * Current         1

Alpine is team #5? How many points does that make? Not necessarily that many.

The PTPC forecast
Will appear after the Miami GP.

[Anderis]

My Perez guess looks far from perfect, but better than yours.

If only your Alonso guess was just as good, you could start celebrating already.
 

Edited by Anderis, 22 March 2023 - 00:10.

[Makarias]

HUSH

[mark f1]

Don't mention Alonso....I messed up big time.

[M2000-5]

Oh well, too many points on the Mercedes and the McLaren guys, too few on the Aston Martin guys and probably on the Alpine guys. In general I think it will be a crappy year.

[noikeee]

It's starting to look like this is my best chance of winning this in years (well, since 2014 which is the only time I ever won a game in here). KWSN-DSM and GTA are strong contenders due to their slightly higher Alonso guesses but I've got more points on Max and Perez.

 

The development race is what might throw a bit of a curveball in here, it's all good looking at the current standings/pace rankings and saying, right, all-in on Red Bull and Aston and that's what matters, but who knows if Merc Ferrari and Alpine all overtake Aston, for example. It's a reason why I still put some decent points on McLaren, from testing I was pretty sure they were ****ed but I suspect they'll become a bit more competitive after the first big upgrade.

[Anderis]

Don't mention Alonso....I messed up big time.

I messed up not much less. I'm stuck in an eternal cycle.

 

In 2020 I underestimated Mercedes horribly, so I said to myself that I would never underestimate Mercedes again, and then overestimated them in 2021 (and by extension, underestimated Red Bull horribly).

In 2022 I overestimated Aston Martin horribly, so I said to myself that I need to moderate my guess about them the next time they look good during testing, so I underestimated them horribly in 2023.
I just never get it right, or rather I get it right always one season too early or too late, with the exception of Red Bull in 2022.