283 replies to this topic

[BerniesDad]

We've seen Sergio Perez beat his teammate twice in 4 weekends (and a 'sprint', if anyone actually watched that). He is only 6 points off the lead in the WDC. 

He was hired as a wingman for Max, but he's driving as well as he has all career, and looking quite hard to beat at the moment.

Do you think that he has a real shot at being the world champion?

[Ivanhoe]

I hope he will make the WDC a bit exciting, but I don't think he will really ltrouble Verstappen over a full season. Verstappen is more consistent and just the better driver on most circuits.

[Diablobb81]

He has two things going on for him:

- he is driving well this year

- there is no real competition for RB and even if he has an off day he will not lose many points against Max (valid for Max too)

 

And unknown is if the characteristics or this years car is more to his liking (or if it reduces the difference between the drivers)  and if he can keep up the high level for an entire season.

 

 

I do think the options in the poll should have been more nuanced

Edited by Diablobb81, 03 May 2023 - 09:25.

[Beri]

Ofcourse he can. Even Sargeant could still win it at this moment.

[Risil]

I think he can, but I don't think he will. Verstappen appears to be comfortable in a wider range of circuits and conditions and situations than Perez, and we've seen many times that Max gets stronger as the year goes on and he works the car to his will.

 

Perez looks close though so who knows, Max could get three DNFs in a row and then have some serious ground to make up in the points.

[PlatenGlass]

It's possible. Assuming even that Verstappen continues to perform at a higher standard overall, there are a few examples in history where the lesser performing driver has finished ahead in a team 1-2 championship finish. And some near misses. It's harder with high reliability and more races of course though.

[jacdaniel]

No, Perez is good at the street circuits and it was the same last year. After Monaco he will likely drop off.

I don't see him beating Max at traditional circuits or rain etc.

His only hope might be lots of DNFs for Max

[jjcale]

MV is consistency itself .... he needs to be better than MV to beat him or he needs a lot of luck .... just being as good as MV will not cut it.... MV never misses a day of work. 

Edited by jjcale, 03 May 2023 - 09:42.

[Ragamuffin]

*snigger*

[Burtros]

He can beat Max if the cards fall heavily in his favour this year. A few Max DNFs etc.

It’s unlikely, but it’s all we have got.

[noikeee]

Didn't know we had 18% of people in here who believe in miracles.

[Beri]

Didn't know we had 18% of people in here who believe in miracles.

Or is it wishful thinking?

[Ivanhoe]

Didn't know we had 18% of people in here who believe in miracles.

Not to mention the 13% who believe in conspiracy theories.

[milestone 11]

He has as much chance as I do.

[milestone 11]

Not to mention the 13% who believe in conspiracy theories.

All polls should be public. I want to identify the other two.

[baddog]

If Max breaks his leg then maybe.

[milestone 11]

Break a leg Max!

Edit
Might need some explaining.

Edited by milestone 11, 03 May 2023 - 10:20.

[Beri]

Not to mention the 13% who believe in conspiracy theories.

And literally 0% of Mercedes and Ferrari fans have faith in their team being able to catch up. Shocking!

[cpbell]

I, as a disabled person, have a greater chance of running 100 metres in under Bolt's 9.79 seconds.

[TheFish]

I think if you ran this championship 100 times, Max would win it 99 times out of 100. Maybe we get a miracle. Maybe Max gets injured and is ruled out of 6 races. Maybe his car keeps breaking down and he has multiple DNFs.

 

Overall, Max is one of the best drivers on the grid and Perez is a journeyman, a Barrichello type driver. He will get the odd win, but it will usually require something going wrong for Max.

[JHSingo]

I think Max has to be careful to not get too complacent. He's probably well aware that the only (sorta?) realistic threat is coming from the other side of the garage - and a driver he's comfortably trounced up to now. 

 

But when that's the case, there's maybe less incentive to really feel like he needs to give 100% all the time. A driver is likely more motivated when he knows he's in a proper fight. It's the modern day version of the Tortoise and the Hare.    

 

And it seems like Max is quite disillusioned with the sport at the moment too. My word was he tetchy last weekend - about George, the Sprint format, probably what colour his hotel room's curtains were...

 

So yeah. It's highly, highly unlikely to happen, but if Verstappen takes his eyes off the ball...who knows?

 

I hope this conversation carries on a while longer, as otherwise it's going to be a very long season. This is another reason why these crazy long seasons are a bad idea. Sure, it's great when there's actually a championship battle like in '21, but it's very rare we ever get that. And, here we are, not even close to a third of the way through this season yet, and we all pretty much know who's going to win.

 

Thanks, Domenicali. 

Edited by JHSingo, 03 May 2023 - 10:28.

[TheFish]

And literally 0% of Mercedes and Ferrari fans have faith in their team being able to catch up. Shocking!

Anyone who thinks Merc or Ferrari can catch up against that rocketship with a cost cap needs sectioning.

[SilverArrow31]

He's doing exactly what Bottas used to do... have a couple of good results early in the season but will fade once Max really switches it on.

Verstappen will have the title wrapped up with 3 or 4 races to spare.

[jonpollak]

Break a leg Max!

Edit
Might need some explaining.

No splanation needed....Got it boss !!
We'z got dem boyz down in Miami on it....right now.

 

Jp

[Astandahl]

Reopen this poll after Imola/Barcelona. If he is competitive there, then he could have a small chance with a bit of luck.

[Cornholio]

Perez is starting to remind me a lot of David Coulthard to be honest, where 2 or 3 times a season he'd pop up and beat Hakkinen and Schumacher on pace, win on merit, start to get talked about in terms of challenging for the title, only to fade away on average over the course of the year.

 

Basically, I don't see Perez winning or seriously contending for the title outside of a Schumacher 1999-type scenario (would love to be proven wrong of course)

Edited by Cornholio, 03 May 2023 - 11:06.

[RedRabbit]

I like Checo, he is easily the most improved driver I have ever seen in F1, since the early 90s. And one of the few mid-tier that's really capable of a giant slaying performance from time to time.

But I don't think he can beat Max over a season. Max is so incredibly consistent that he rarely even finishes 3rd since the start of 2021.

It would come down to DNFs, and over such a long season, Checo probably needs at least 4 in his favour, but this isn't a 2016 type situation. There are 3 other teams and 5 other drivers that could grab a win or 2 from him during any of those races.

[Calum]

It would take extreme circumstances (Verstappen missing months of racing).


The “ordinary” mishaps (eg 2 or 3 DNFs) in 23 race season are less of an advantage to the slower driver vs. the same in old 16 race seasons. The speed advantage obviously gets more opportunities to shine through and amend these mishaps with points.

[DeKnyff]

I think his only chance would be a string of DNFs by Max, like Rosberg vs. Hamilton in 2016.

Edited by DeKnyff, 03 May 2023 - 11:18.

[SenorSjon]

The start of the season is street race heavy which favors Perez. From the first 7 races, 5 are on street circuits. The 16 races that follow have only 2. His best results are achieved on those tracks. He already lost Australia and was a bit lucky he classified 5th while he was running 8th until the 2nd red flag and was dropped to 10/11th just before the last red flag.

 

1. Bahrain - regular 

2. SA - street track

3. Melbourne - street track

4. Baku - street track

5. Miami - street track

6. Imola - regular

7. Monaco - street track

8-15. regular

16. Singapore - street track

17-21. regular

22. Las Vegas - street track

23. AD

 

Canada is named Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, but isn't used much iirc.

Edited by SenorSjon, 03 May 2023 - 11:18.

[Beri]

 

The start of the season is street race heavy which favors Perez. From the first 7 races, 5 are on street circuits. The 16 races that follow have only 2. His best results are achieved on those tracks. He already lost Australia and was a bit lucky he classified 5th while he was running 8th until the 2nd red flag and was dropped to 10/11th just before the last red flag.

 

1. Bahrain - regular 

2. SA - street track

3. Melbourne - street track

4. Baku - street track

5. Miami - street track

6. Imola - regular

7. Monaco - street track

8-15. regular

16. Singapore - street track

17-21. regular

22. Las Vegas - street track

23. AD

 

Canada is named Circuit Gilles Villeneuve, but isn't used much iirc.

 

 

 

And despite the start of the season is favoring Perez, he still has a deficit. And even if he wins at Miami and Verstappen comes in 2nd, not looking at fastest lap, his advantage is just 1 point. It is great to see people having hope, but lets be fair.. Perez never performed in a continuous strong level througout an entire season. Whereas Verstappen has shown he rarely drops in performance over one entire season.

[hamilton10000]

So far it just feels like a Lewis Bottas situation like we saw in particular in 2019, where Bottas had a good start to the season, beat Lewis outright a couple of times but unsurprisingly just fell away through the season.

Given everything we've seen between Max and Checo the last 2 years that isn't all going to magically change.

Only chance is another 2016 style season with loads of issues for Max

[YorkF1Fan]

Of course he can, but will he?, Probably not. But hopefully he'll at least take the championship going to the last race. 

[Arska]

For it to happen, he needs luck comparable to 2016.

[kumo7]

Checo has sweet smile and polite, but he can be much more tougher than this Dutch kid.

I mean I support Max, but I do not under rate Checo. It is something different.

Edited by kumo7, 03 May 2023 - 11:41.

[midgrid]

No, Perez is good at the street circuits and it was the same last year. After Monaco he will likely drop off.

I don't see him beating Max at traditional circuits or rain etc.

His only hope might be lots of DNFs for Max

 

 

Last year Pérez had an advantage in the early season because the Red Bull was overweight and the compromises involved in this better suited his driving style.  This shouldn't be an issue in 2023, but I still would be surprised if he is able to consistently maintain this level of performance.

[kumo7]

He won three times this year up against twice of Max. Checo tasted wins and now he recalls the taste everywhere he goes. He is not the same one.

Edited by kumo7, 03 May 2023 - 12:01.

[lewislorenzo]

If Max has reliability issues then yes otherwise no chance

Edited by lewislorenzo, 03 May 2023 - 12:07.

[NickeyF1]

He absolutely can do a Rosberg, but he will need a lot of fortune for that.

 

And to be fair, the margins between Nico and Lewis in 2015/2016 were way smaller than between Max and Sergio.

Edited by NickeyF1, 03 May 2023 - 12:15.

[P123]

He absolutely can do a Rosberg, but he will need a lot of fortune for that.

 

And to be fair, the margins between Nico and Lewis in 2015/2016 were way smaller than between Max and Sergio.

 

I tend to agree that Sergio would need a larger dose of things going his way than Nico had in 2016.  Nico for one did not have such massive off-days as Sergio does, although maybe this will turn out to be his best season and he will generally avoid those.

 

With Red Bull almost certain to be 1-2 on pace at each race, with only car issues intervening, it will take Max a while to stretch out a lead.  If Merc and Ferrari can take a leap then that will complicate things further for Sergio.  Finish 20s off Max and he can be second at present.  Perhaps later in the year being that far off Max means he's third or fifth instead.

[IrvTheSwerve]

I think his only chance would be a string of DNFs by Max, like Rosberg vs. Hamilton in 2016.

 

A string of DNFs?

 

Not that I want to take this off topic, but Lewis had 2 DNFs to Nico's 1.

 

Lewis had the one where they both crashed at Barcelona and the engine failure at Sepang.

 

Nico performed excellently that year and was very consistent. I don't see Perez performing to that level. 

[F1 Mike]

I hope he can keep performing similar to Max. He's had a great start to the season, and there's no guarantee he'll get a chance as good as this again. He is yet to prove he can keep up over a season, but I think this is his year.

I always hoped the same of Coulthard

Edited by F1 Mike, 03 May 2023 - 12:46.

[DeKnyff]

A string of DNFs?

 

Not that I want to take this off topic, but Lewis had 2 DNFs to Nico's 1.

 

Lewis had the one where they both crashed at Barcelona and the engine failure at Sepang.

 

Nico performed excellently that year and was very consistent. I don't see Perez performing to that level. 

 

Ok, DNFs and/or reliability penalties if you prefer.

[Clatter]

A string of DNFs?

Not that I want to take this off topic, but Lewis had 2 DNFs to Nico's 1.

Lewis had the one where they both crashed at Barcelona and the engine failure at Sepang.

Nico performed excellently that year and was very consistent. I don't see Perez performing to that level.

That doesn't fit the narrative though.

[gillesfan76]

He’ll need several Abu Dhabi’esque miracles to win, so in short, no.

[Ali623]

No because,

 

a) So far the circuits we've had have been ones that perfectly suit him compared to Verstappen, yet he's still not leading the championship. When we get to the more classic, European circuits, he'll be left behind fast.

 

b) Verstappen doesn't seem the least bit worried (reminds me of Hamilton when Bottas was his main 'rival'). If Max thought for a minute he was any real threat, he would not be this chilled out.

[gillesfan76]

That doesn't fit the narrative though.

 

Stick to the topic which has nothing to do with Lewis or Nico….

[Dalton007]

At the moment I'd say no, but I "hope" he does. Would be an amazing feat to beat Max to the title. 

[macjim]

Flashes of brilliance, but too many mehh weekends - Max should take it over the season

[eibyyz]

I don't wish it on anyone, but there can always be another Stowe 1999 moment where a bolt isn't tightened. Who put money on Irvine at the start of the year?  Thought so.  :-)

Edited by eibyyz, 03 May 2023 - 14:18.