1213 replies to this topic

[TheFish]

McLaren won 15 of 16 in 1988, Mercedes won 19 of 21 in 2016... can Red Bull take a clean sweep this season?

 

The winning gaps over other teams so far -

 

Bahrain +38.6

Saudi +20.7

Australia N/A (cluster**** finish)

Baku +21.2

Miami +26.2

Monaco +27.9

 

Those are some huge gaps to be overturned by the chasing teams. Monaco was seen as a potential banana skin given how hard overtaking is but they overcame that challenge with ease. Will we get a race where it all goes wrong for them? WIll there be an outlier track like Brazil was last year where they're inexplicably off the pace? Or will we see a clean sweep for the first time in F1 history?

[ForzaGTR]

I don't think so, it's a long season, a lot can happen. Perez isn't a sure thing, he's often out of position for various reasons. I can easily imagine Max suffering a mechanical issue and Perez not being in a position to capitalise.

That said,Max is going to break some records this year

Edited by ForzaGTR, 29 May 2023 - 07:10.

[JG]

At some point they will make some mistake. 

[renzmann]

I think Verstappen is consistent enough to win every remaining race. Indeed, Monaco was the biggest banana, and he made the difference, arguably both on Saturday and on Sunday.

 

I'd be surprised if RBR didn't loose at least three races though. Reliability has been shaky (they were lucky a couple of times already), the weather can turn things around, RBR need a normal weekend to get the setup right (there's lots of sprint weekends coming up), the competition will be closer eventually, etc. Also, I don't think Perez is good enough to be right there whenever Verstappen is out of the picture.

[Heyli]

I doubt it. There's plenty of opportunities for enough odds to fall for somebody else. You need to get very lucky to not get unlucky over a season...

[Baddoer]

I hope so. Will make Toto face red as Ferrari paint.

[Roadhouse]

Also depends on how quickly the competition manage to decipher the pictures of RB's floor.

[SenorSjon]

RB has less development time than the rest, so I expect others to come close near the end of the season. Perez has messed up 1 out of 3 races thus far.

[Anja]

We've asked ourselves this question a few times during the Mercedes era when it seemed just as inevitable yet it never actually happened in the end. In normal circumstances yes, they would probably win every race. But this is a live sport and at some point something unexpected is bound to happen.

Edited by Anja, 29 May 2023 - 08:34.

[WindmillRacer]

A clean sweep is very unlikely, there is a (mechanical) banana skin somewhere waiting to be tripped on

[Ali623]

I would be incredibly surprised if they did, I mean they were not far off losing Monaco in the end.

 

I expect the cars at the front will converge as the season progresses, at least Mercedes anyway, they were further back from RB/Ferrari this time last year and won a race on merit as well as challenging for a few other race wins later in the season. Maybe AM too, more sceptical about Ferrari. Combine this with the stronger development restrictions RB have this season and it makes it even more likely. Throw in unpredictability like reliability and possible driver mistakes too.

 

I actually think (hope) the second half of the season will be more open with RB, Mercedes, Alonso and maybe Ferrari fighting for wins, but we'll see.

[Muppetmad]

I agree with Anja. On paper, it's entirely possible, but in reality, there's bound to be at least one race where circumstances play out and a non-Red Bull driver takes the win.

[jacdaniel]

Doubtful.
In a cost cap era, if the title looks secure they'll likely move on to next season's car and others may catch up. Also DNFs, weather, poor luck etc.

[Risil]

Doubt it but they have the opportunity

[Primo]

No, that would mean Alonso wouldn't win a race this season so, sorry - I'm not in!

[pUs]

Won't happen. Still seems shaky on sprint weekends, and reliability hasn't been spot-on. There will easily be at least another wet race as well and they just can't always get things right.

[Sterzo]

There are other possibilities not in the poll. Maybe Verstappen will be taken out by an optimistic rival or an errant backmarker, or might touch the barrier harder than he did in Monaco. If they win every race, that would be incredibly impressive and make for a historic season.

[jonklug]

If they have some technical issues at some point or some bad luck somehow then yea. Considering Verstappen is the last guy you expect to make a mistake that costs him a win, I'd say that's the only possibility - bad luck(50-50 strategy call in tricky conditions/rammed over by someone) or reliability issues.

 

Of course, if they stop developing this car by Spa as they'll have enough of a cushion, you might see a few different other winners as the pack gets closer - similar to last year.

[PayasYouRace]

They’ll have a bad day at some point.

[IrvTheSwerve]

There’s bound to be a race where there’s a crash or reliability issues for Redbull…but I really wouldn’t be surprised if they win all but one or two…

[HighwayStar]

I might be being a little optimistic here, but I think Red Bull will probably be beaten at some point this season - at this stage Alonso for Aston Martin seems most likely combination to prevent Red Bull from winning every race, although I would not completely rule out Mercedes based on their pace in Australia and their improvement over the course of last season (Ferrari, on the other hand, presently seem to possess neither the race pace or strategic acumen needed to have a chance of winning, especially now that Monaco has been and gone).

 

Of the three extremely dominant seasons by Mercedes in the opening seasons of the turbo hybrid era (2014-16) this year's Red Bull reminds me most of 2014, where Ricciardo was able to win three races when circumstances allowed, although it's worth remembering that in Hungary both Mercedes drivers finished the race, while Rosberg was able to finish second in the other two races. I think this year's Red Bull is more competitive relative to the opposition than the 2015 Mercedes, where all three of Vettel's wins for Ferrari were on merit, including Singapore where the Mercedes was only the third fastest car and never looked like a potential winner, but not as dominant as the 2016 Mercedes, which along with the 1988 McLaren could conceivably have won every race. Of the two races that got away in 2016, I think it's very likely that Rosberg or Hamilton would have won in Spain if not for the first lap collision, and Hamilton was on course to win in Malaysia before his engine failure.

Edited by HighwayStar, 29 May 2023 - 12:16.

[JimmyClark]

Over 21 (?) races, surely one will have circumstances that lead to another team winning. F1 just has a habit of throwing a curve ball from time to time, be it reliability, weather, errant safety cars, etc. 

 

Basically we are going into each weekend 95% sure Red Bull will win. That means at least one race they won't. 

[MKSixer]

Possible but not probable.  Too many variables in F1 including but not limited to the following:

 

Weather

Debris on track

A vole running across the track

Spectators rushing the track (I'm talking to you British GP!!!)

Mad Stewards

Seemingly Drunk Stewards

Seemingly Asleep Stewards

Liberty Media Manipulation and Jeffery Epstein Didn't commit suicide

Your team mate crashing you out (Haas, AM and Alpine Drivers I'm talking to you!!)

Pirelli tires working perfectly 

Pirelli tires cheese tire alotment

Track surface issues (Oh Canada)

The Ghosts of Max Mosely and JM Balastre (sp?) making a resurgence

Bernie

Unsafe release

Bumper cars on slick track at the start (#1 car in the side pocket)

Overloaded Hype Train (2022 Mercedes W13)

 

Please add to the list as you see fit.

[Risil]

Could be any number of small water mammals

[Risil]

Or rodents of unusual size

[SenorSjon]

Alpha Tauri will do something to prevent another Verstappen win. They usually are the cause of something that makes RB's life harder.

And Perez in the latter part of the season will try to go for his own glory, knowing the WDC is out of the window.

[MKSixer]

Alpha Tauri will do something to prevent another Verstappen win. They usually are the cause of something that makes RB's life harder.

And Perez in the latter part of the season will try to go for his own glory, knowing the WDC is out of the window.

I've only seen them practically pull into the grass to make it easier on the senior TEAM.  Now if they pull into the grass to retrieve a rodent of unusual size, THAT may be a different matter.

[pdac]

Of course they'll win them all. They will not have any bad days that are bad enough for someone else to steal a march on them. They have all bases covered now.

[Ruusperi]

No. In Montreal Perez retires due to a brake issue and Verstappen hits the Wall of Champions. I have foreseen it.

[Laptom]

I've only seen them practically pull into the grass to make it easier on the senior TEAM. Now if they pull into the grass to retrieve a rodent of unusual size, THAT may be a different matter.

To be honest, the last few years they stuffed a couple times Max qualy or race. I cannot recall where they actually helped him.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Another issue is DRS in general and Redbull’s particularly strong straight line speed under DRS. Max can realistically start at the very back and still win as cars simply can’t defend. If that were to happen, Perez may well be at the front anyway. 

[NewMrMe]

They have about as good a chance as any team will ever have but I would be surprised if they did. To go through a season without throwing away a win somewhere through reliability issue, driver error, strategic mistake, etc, is very unlikely.

 

 

[Ruudbackus]

Probably not. I don't think others will catch up that much as I think by the summer break most teams will have shifted focus to next years car. But there will always be the odd weekend out where everything fall sinto place for another team. And at 22 races, the chances are just smaller for a sweep then the seasons mentioned from Williams and Mercedes. I think they will losse between 3-5 races in the end

[jAnO76]

Over 21 (?) ..

 

Basically we are going into each weekend 95% sure Red Bull will win. That means at least one race they won't. 

(0.95)^21 = about 36% chance they will actually.. 

[Heyli]

(0.95)^21 = about 36% chance they will actually.. 

They already have 6 though, so the odds are a bit better!

[RPM40]

I doubt it, they'll hit reliability issues at some point or be involved in some trouble on track.

 

If they had a stronger driver than Perez maybe not, but when he goes missing like Monaco all it would take is a small error by Verstappen to cost them the win.

[Zmeej]

No.

 

Reason (also the reason I didn't vote in the poll) : statistically improbable.

 

Aside from that, anyone wanna bet?

[dissident]

Don't think so, but I do think they'll have the quickest (race) car at every venue.

[TomNokoe]

Nooooo definitely not. I think Aston and especially Mercedes are closer than it appears. I wouldn't be surprised if Verstappen is given a hard time in Barcelona this weekend.

[PlatenGlass]

They already have 6 though, so the odds are a bit better!

Are there 15 races left? I'm not checking but 0.95^15 is about 0.46.

[Reddington]

This poll definitely should have had a crash/incident option as well…

[PitViperRacing]

Nah they'll stop developing the car at some point to focus exclusively on 2024. Other teams will close the gap. Plus factor in all the other variables etc

I think a more interesting question I'd whether Verstappen gets to 50 wins this season.

[SenorSjon]

I've only seen them practically pull into the grass to make it easier on the senior TEAM.  Now if they pull into the grass to retrieve a rodent of unusual size, THAT may be a different matter.

 

There is a list somewhere, but usually (at least Verstappen) was better of without AT around. From the top of my head, but there are many more, especially in qualifying sessions.

 

Canada 2022: Yuki crashes after pitting, nullifying he gap Verstappen had to Sainz. Tense last laps remained while he had a comfortable gap.

Silverstone 2022: AT's batter each other, the resulting debris gets stuck in the leading Verstappens floor a lap later, costing him the win.

Qatar 2021: Gasly crashes in Q3, the resulting yellow awards Verstappen a grid drop.

[SenorSjon]

Nooooo definitely not. I think Aston and especially Mercedes are closer than it appears. I wouldn't be surprised if Verstappen is given a hard time in Barcelona this weekend.

 

We're now getting to regular tracks after a host of street races. I think the RB can now finally stretch its legs. We only had one regular race track (Bahrain, drive shaft issues) and the other 5 were all street tracks. China and Imola were two regular tracks, but both got cancelled.

[JimmyClark]

I think a more interesting question I'd whether Verstappen gets to 50 wins this season.

I remember saying at the beginning of the year I thought he'd at least equal Prost this year, and a couple of people scoffed. I stand by that prediction...

[pdac]

They have about as good a chance as any team will ever have but I would be surprised if they did. To go through a season without throwing away a win somewhere through reliability issue, driver error, strategic mistake, etc, is very unlikely.

 

There was a time when it would be unheard of for a team to go through a whole season without a mechanical breakdown at a race. But, whilst we still see them, the prevalence of mechanical breakdowns is small now. If we are not there now, we are approaching a time when winning every race in the season is a very real possibility. Someone has to be the first.

Edited by pdac, 30 May 2023 - 10:33.

[djparky]

Unless they have a mechanical or some other random thing happens they are a long way faster than everyone else, so on pure speed alone then definitely

[Sparky68]

I doubt it although it would be nice

[P123]

I doubt they will be beaten on outright pace, but there is always an outside threat of there being a day where something happens with Max's car coinciding with one of Sergio's off days.  Nobody has been close to them on race day yet.

[Henri Greuter]

I doubt they will be beaten on outright pace, but there is always an outside threat of there being a day where something happens with Max's car coinciding with one of Sergio's off days.  Nobody has been close to them on race day yet.

 

 

Your avatar helps me to remind on the deja vu I have with the current RB19.

 

This seasond reminds me about 2002. The Ferrari F2002 wasn't always dominant in qualifying, and beaten too on several occasions by your avatar in particular. 

But in race day trim the F2002 was, as long as it left the grid for the warming up laps, near invincible and devastatingly faster, 

 

One main difference between F2002 and RB19 we do already know. F2002 won every race it ran in 2002 except one: Monaco.

RB19 did claim that crown jewel.

 

On topic:

If Mercedes had a car that performed like the RB19, then I would have rated the chance that one car wins all reaces in the season as possible. But RedBull isn't known for the near bulletproof reliability of Mercedes F1 cars. So I expect at least a loss due to mechanical failure to at least one car and a misfortune of whatever kind to the other driver

I also expect that the wind tunnel penalty eventually will show at last.