241 replies to this topic

[romaincrouton]

First off the RB18 is a wonderful car and absolutely peerless in 2023. The engineers, mechanics, designers and the drivers deserve all the rewards of creating the best F1 car this season.

My question is… given Red Bull are so far ahead, and a president has been set for breaching the cost cap last season. Could the bigger teams…. Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston consider breaching the cost cap this season to try to claw back lap time? Is it worth it?

A less inflammatory question would be, realistically looking a head to next season, can another team get close enough to challenge Red Bull for wins let alone the championship, while adhering to the financial regulations?

*RB19 typo…. Although the 18 would also be pretty close this year ;)

Edited by romaincrouton, 02 June 2023 - 23:33.

[RPM40]

The problem for the other teams is the FIA could punish the breach harshly in future, so I still suspect they will avoid breaching it. The only reason it looks like Red Bull made a smart play is they suffered a very minor penalty. 

[jacdaniel]

Even if you exclude the tax credit and say that Red Bull overspent in the region of 1.8M, do you really believe that that's the reason they are currently dominating?

I don't think any team would be silly enough to take a wind tunnel reduction and a 7M fine just to spend another 1 or 2 million.

To catch up they might need to breach by over 10 or 15M, maybe even more. Breaching by that amount would be handled a lot different.

[New Britain]

First off the RB18 is a wonderful car and absolutely peerless in 2023. The engineers, mechanics, designers and the drivers deserve all the rewards of creating the best F1 car this season.

My question is… given Red Bull are so far ahead, and a president has been set for breaching the cost cap last season. Could the bigger teams…. Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston consider breaching the cost cap this season to try to claw back lap time? Is it worth it?

A less inflammatory question would be, realistically looking a head to next season, can another team get close enough to challenge Red Bull for wins let alone the championship, while adhering to the financial regulations?

*RB19 typo…. Although the 18 would also be pretty close this year ;)

 

Although not exactly addressing the question you raise, I wonder whether wind tunnel time for a following season should be determined not by relative finishing position in WCC but by relative finishing points in WCC. As it is, there is no difference in tunnel time whether a team barely ekes out the championship and finishes first by half a point or completely dominates and finishes first by hundreds of points.

[RedRabbit]

Although not exactly addressing the question you raise, I wonder whether wind tunnel time for a following season should be determined not by relative finishing position in WCC but by relative finishing points in WCC. As it is, there is no difference in tunnel time whether a team barely ekes out the championship and finishes first by half a point or completely dominates and finishes first by hundreds of points.

This is a really good idea. The allocation should also be for the whole season, and not readjusted mid year according to WCC position again.

As for being worthwhile to breach the cap - no. As jacdaniel said, the overspend by Red Bull doesn't equate to their advantage this season, nor is it worth the hefty fine and further reduction in wind tunnel and CFD runs.

As a percentage, the fine doesn't sound much, but equating it to the number of runs available compared to Merc and Ferrari even, and it's pretty heavy.

[RedRabbit]

Another point to consider is how much would they have to spend to overcome the advantage? And further, where exactly would they spend that money? The tools used to verify ideas and designs are regulated and monitored.

The huff and puff last year of a couple million being equal to half a second was utter rubbish. I also wouldn't put it passed the current Mercedes or Ferrari teams to overspend and still get it wrong.

[romaincrouton]

I totally agree RBR’s current dominance isn’t down to their overspend, I was wondering wether the benefits of a breach would outweigh the costs if it could bring them in contention faster…. For example I realistically can’t see Mercedes closing the performance gap within the next 2-3 years. Considering their budget has in recent years been over 500 million a monetary fine wouldn’t be any kind of punishment and if sporting penalties are only applicable to the following season would it be worth writing off a couple of season… to be fast today.

I’m not advocating this approach obviously but historically in F1 money equates to lap time and without finding a loop hole like the double defuser, how can teams challenge within the current set of financial regulations.

New Britain makes an excellent point regarding constructor points determining CFD and wind tunnel time. That could be a better way of pegging back the front runners and bring the other teams closer.

[Sterzo]

...a monetary fine wouldn’t be any kind of punishment and if sporting penalties are only applicable to the following season would it be worth writing off a couple of season… to be fast today.
 

 

Declaring my bias in advance, I'm a big fan of the cost cap and would like to see it tightened progressively over time.

 

I think you raise a real and significant risk, and while it may not happen this year, there's always the lurking possibility that a team will go for broke and value winning today over all else. Doesn't even have to be a top team. Imagine, hypothetically, a team boss facing the prospect of being ousted, who thinks he can secure a historic race victory before leaving the scene.
 

[uzsjgb]

The problem for the other teams is the FIA could punish the breach harshly in future, so I still suspect they will avoid breaching it.

 

We must remember that Red Bull was not caught cheating. If you actively breach the cost cap, then you are much more likely to be caught cheating and the punishment will be much higher. Not only the penalty from the FIA, but also the damage to your reputation. I cannot imagine a works team like Mercedes could continue in Formula One in it's current form, if they were caught cheating.

[Nathan]

Personally, I don't think where RBR is now has much to do with the marginal overspend.

 

My worry is I don't think the punishment is fixed.  Sure, we have one precedent, but maybe next time punishment is harsher especially if a team clearly gamed the system eg. Williams goes from 10th to 5th by over spending.

[Clrnc]

RBR dominance definitely has nothing to with their cost cap breaching, but I think TS raise a good point. Maybe if Merc and Ferrari breach it by over 100 of millions and catch up, then give up all their hours of wind tunnel totally and pay fines it might be worth it?

[ARTGP]

I'm more interested in when the 2022 audits will be reported.  We're 6 months into the year...

Edited by ARTGP, 03 June 2023 - 13:41.

[Rumblestrip]

I think RB, whether they did it on purpose or not, breached the cap by a relatively small amount. If a team goes over by $100m then that'd be a pretty ballsy move and without doubt done with intent. If it all went to plan for the team in question then maybe they make a big leap forward up the grid, but the damage to their image would probably not be seen favourably by sponsors and they'd end up with zero wind tunnel hours the following season. I can't see it happening.

 

Now, a team purposefully finishing poorly one year in order to get oodles of wind tunnel time the following season I can see.

[uzsjgb]

RBR dominance definitely has nothing to with their cost cap breaching, but I think TS raise a good point. Maybe if Merc and Ferrari breach it by over 100 of millions and catch up, then give up all their hours of wind tunnel totally and pay fines it might be worth it?

 

They would most certainly be disqualified.

[pdac]

RBR dominance definitely has nothing to with their cost cap breaching, but I think TS raise a good point. Maybe if Merc and Ferrari breach it by over 100 of millions and catch up, then give up all their hours of wind tunnel totally and pay fines it might be worth it?

 

What makes you think that would be the penalty that they would get. There are a number of penalties associated with the cost cap and fines and wind tunnel time are some of the minor ones. They have some much worse ones that they can dish out if they want to.

[TheFish]

It's a good question and raises some interesting possibilities imo.

 

If Ferrari or Mercedes said after Bahrain 'we've got no chance this year, if we breach the cap in 2023 by $20m, ignore the wind tunnel restrictions and stuff like that, we can build a car to beat Red Bull in 2024' then would it be worth doing? I would say yes, as there won't be a punishment in 2024 for breaking the 2023 rules. There will be wind tunnel restrictions and fines but they won't be DQ'd in 2024 for 2023 breaches. So who cares if you lose out on 3rd/4th place in 2023? 2nd is the first loser anyway.

 

There would be some PR management needed when it gets announced that you massively broke the 2023 rules. There is also a danger if after spending all that money and you still lose to Red Bull then you look extra foolish. The risk of punishment from the FIA should be well down the lists of reasons you shouldn't do it imo, as we saw last year with Red Bull.

[TheFish]

What makes you think that would be the penalty that they would get. There are a number of penalties associated with the cost cap and fines and wind tunnel time are some of the minor ones. They have some much worse ones that they can dish out if they want to.

 

Only for the year the breach occured in though. So they'll be DQ'd for 23 and can then theoretically win 24. Obviously not so straightforward against the Red Bull machine but it's theoretically possible.

[New Britain]

We must remember that Red Bull was not caught cheating. If you actively breach the cost cap, then you are much more likely to be caught cheating and the punishment will be much higher. Not only the penalty from the FIA, but also the damage to your reputation. I cannot imagine a works team like Mercedes could continue in Formula One in it's current form, if they were caught cheating.

 

I think it would be a mistake to take Red Bull's punishment as a template for future cap breach sanctions.

We don't know whether the CCA believed that RBR did not cheat, or rather believed that they did cheat but part of the plea bargain was agreement on a lesser charge.

 

If another team were to do this year exactly what RBR did last year, I would expect the CCA to come down much harder this time, because the team would not have the excuse of 'We didn't understand.'

[flyboym3]

If its looking like a tight season for the wdc then yeah its worth it. Bit like 2021 I guess.

[Broekschaap]

Only for the year the breach occured in though. So they'll be DQ'd for 23 and can then theoretically win 24. Obviously not so straightforward against the Red Bull machine but it's theoretically possible.

to my understanding suspension from competitions and excluding from the championship is not limited to the year of the breach.

[pdac]

Only for the year the breach occured in though. So they'll be DQ'd for 23 and can then theoretically win 24. Obviously not so straightforward against the Red Bull machine but it's theoretically possible.

 

According to this article, there are 3 levels of transgression:

 

1. Procedural (e.g. a team submitting their accounts late)

2. Minor overspend (less than 5%)

3. Material overspend (5%+)

 

The first attracts a fine

The second attracts a reprimand, a deduction of WCC and/or WDC points, testing limitation, a cost-cap reduction and/or race bans (this would obviously affect the next season)

The third attracts any or all of these, plus exclusion from the WCC

 

So I don't think you can just overspend ad-lib and go into the next season without any serious disadvantage.

Edited by pdac, 03 June 2023 - 22:13.

[Clrnc]

Actually, a team can just totally give up development for this year and use all the money for next year's car no? 

[JeePee]

If you spend more money on a car, it will get faster. Right, Toyota?

If you don't have good ideas you can through 100 million at it and Red Bull would still be quicker.

[New Britain]

Actually, a team can just totally give up development for this year and use all the money for next year's car no? 

 

Correct. With the exception of the treatment of costs for certain unused parts, whatever you spend this year on the design and construction of an F1 racing car counts against this year's cap. Whether you intend to apply your work to this year's car or next year's does not matter.

[RPM40]

If you spend more money on a car, it will get faster. Right, Toyota?

If you don't have good ideas you can through 100 million at it and Red Bull would still be quicker.

It’s not a 100% of the time direct correlation and the big spending teams can mess it up, but there is a significant positive correlation between money spent and on track performance.

[JimmyClark]

Rumours from Italy suggest 3 teams are in breach of last year's cap....

[Burtros]

Rumours from Italy suggest 3 teams are in breach of last year's cap....

Those damn chefs again.

[Clatter]

It's a good question and raises some interesting possibilities imo.

If Ferrari or Mercedes said after Bahrain 'we've got no chance this year, if we breach the cap in 2023 by $20m, ignore the wind tunnel restrictions and stuff like that, we can build a car to beat Red Bull in 2024' then would it be worth doing? I would say yes, as there won't be a punishment in 2024 for breaking the 2023 rules. There will be wind tunnel restrictions and fines but they won't be DQ'd in 2024 for 2023 breaches. So who cares if you lose out on 3rd/4th place in 2023? 2nd is the first loser anyway.

There would be some PR management needed when it gets announced that you massively broke the 2023 rules. There is also a danger if after spending all that money and you still lose to Red Bull then you look extra foolish. The risk of punishment from the FIA should be well down the lists of reasons you shouldn't do it imo, as we saw last year with Red Bull.

There is zero guarantee that they would build a car that does actually challange though.

[Clatter]

Only for the year the breach occured in though. So they'll be DQ'd for 23 and can then theoretically win 24. Obviously not so straightforward against the Red Bull machine but it's theoretically possible.

Theoretically it's cut and dried once the end of year gala had taken place. In this new era they can't actually announce the winner for another 7 or 8 months.

[Clatter]

Correct. With the exception of the treatment of costs for certain unused parts, whatever you spend this year on the design and construction of an F1 racing car counts against this year's cap. Whether you intend to apply your work to this year's car or next year's does not matter.

They are committed by the concord agreement to race, so they have to build a car anyway. It could still be the previous years design, with minor changes of the are any reg changes. That would leave a lot of budget and resource time to concentrate on the following season.

[Primo]

I'm more interested in when the 2022 audits will be reported.  We're 6 months into the year...

My guess is that this is what is going to break the cost cap pretty soon. Operations becomes more complicated, more decentralized and spread out over more and more sub contractors. Paper trail will be longer and longer, more complicated, more and more grey areas will occur, more areas to dispute. Even if the teams want to be helpful (doubtful), the rules changes for, in particular, 2026 means that new avenues of development will open up and that means new partners, new investments, ownership shuffles. Etcetera. For FIA to be able to audit all teams with a suitable precision, they'd need to double the amount of auditors each year to keep up.  

[ForzaFormula]

Depends if you get away with it, For RB it was worth it as the punishment was weak for the advantage they gained, 10% wind tunnel reduction does not effect a car which is so far ahead of the competition and they can put more efforts on 2024 meaning their advantage last for a while.

[ForzaFormula]

I think RB, whether they did it on purpose or not, breached the cap by a relatively small amount. If a team goes over by $100m then that'd be a pretty ballsy move and without doubt done with intent. If it all went to plan for the team in question then maybe they make a big leap forward up the grid, but the damage to their image would probably not be seen favourably by sponsors and they'd end up with zero wind tunnel hours the following season. I can't see it happening.

 

Now, a team purposefully finishing poorly one year in order to get oodles of wind tunnel time the following season I can see.

It was y $1.8m million, which can gain a big advantage for any team that over spends by this much, so there is a big advantage for teams willing to take the risk/reward factor, but of course they have to make that over spend work, which RB did.

[Rumblestrip]

It was y $1.8m million, which can gain a big advantage for any team that over spends by this much, so there is a big advantage for teams willing to take the risk/reward factor, but of course they have to make that over spend work, which RB did.

 

You think a $1.8m overspend would allow Mercedes/Ferrari to overtake RB in the development race?

[ForzaFormula]

You think a $1.8m overspend would allow Mercedes/Ferrari to overtake RB in the development race?

Who knows but they would certainly get closer, and gain an advantage over their other competition. 

[lewislorenzo]

Yes especially if the penalty is so minor! A 50% reduction in windtunnel time would put people off doing it

[ARTGP]

I'm more interested in when the 2022 audits will be reported.  We're 6 months into the year...

 

According to Italian motorsport, it's coming at the end of July. So they plan to do a mic drop before a long break. 

Edited by ARTGP, 18 July 2023 - 22:50.

[krea]

Even if you exclude the tax credit and say that Red Bull overspent in the region of 1.8M, do you really believe that that's the reason they are currently dominating?

I don't think any team would be silly enough to take a wind tunnel reduction and a 7M fine just to spend another 1 or 2 million.

To catch up they might need to breach by over 10 or 15M, maybe even more. Breaching by that amount would be handled a lot different.

The fundamental problem people fail to grasp is that breaching a budget doesn’t lead to more wind tunnel or cfd times, this was the case with Red Bull and is the case wit any team which wants to catch up through overspending.

[JL14]

Rumours from Italy suggest 3 teams are in breach of last year's cap....

 

With Domenicali coming out yesterday with statements over his view on the penalties teams should get for cost cap breaches, I indeed expect their to be breaches and we are getting warmed (hyped) up about them.

He also says he has asked the FIA to publish a.s.a.p. to avoid this kind of speculation to start happening.

 

 

 

As attention shifts to the 2022 submissions, Domenicali has indicated that he would prefer any rules breaches to result in specific sporting sanctions this time around.

Speaking exclusively to Motorsport.com, Domenicali said: "I would like the penalty to be sporting in case of infringement, it is something we asked for very clearly.

"There are three regulations to be respected: sporting, technical and financial. Any infractions must be punished with sporting measures. You can't go in other directions."
 

"Control is in the hands of the FIA," he said. "Personally what I have asked is to anticipate as soon as possible the publication of the investigations made by the staff of the FIA.

"But I say this only because, in this way, it does not give rise to speculation and comments that are not good for anyone."
F1 cost cap cheats should get sporting sanctions, says Domenicali (motorsport.com)

[southernstars]

I think Domenicali is right in one sense. Last year we didn't find out til October and it cast a real pall over the championship and everything going on. July is better than October, but it's still too damn late. Teams need to know if they're over early, so they know how to fix it.

[Brian60]

First off the RB18 is a wonderful car and absolutely peerless in 2023. The engineers, mechanics, designers and the drivers deserve all the rewards of creating the best F1 car this season.

My question is… given Red Bull are so far ahead, and a president has been set for breaching the cost cap last season. Could the bigger teams…. Mercedes, Ferrari and Aston consider breaching the cost cap this season to try to claw back lap time? Is it worth it?

A less inflammatory question would be, realistically looking a head to next season, can another team get close enough to challenge Red Bull for wins let alone the championship, while adhering to the financial regulations?

*RB19 typo…. Although the 18 would also be pretty close this year ;)

The real question is, how do you know that RB aren't cheating this season? They were caught out last time, but are now much wiser in how to hide spending, so its feasible they still are - along with others  I might add! There's already been talk of some teams 'outsourcing' work ostensibly hidden by disguising it as work outside of the F1 technological realm. Sometimes the truth will out, but as they say, once bitten, try twice as hard to hide what is happening.

Edited by Brian60, 19 July 2023 - 07:33.

[Broekschaap]

I think Domenicali is right in one sense. Last year we didn't find out til October and it cast a real pall over the championship and everything going on. July is better than October, but it's still too damn late. Teams need to know if they're over early, so they know how to fix it.

Now you are turning things upside down. It's up to the teams not to overspend and if they do they really themselves should and can be the first to know.

[New Britain]

Now you are turning things upside down. It's up to the teams not to overspend and if they do they really themselves should and can be the first to know.

This is the point. The Cost Cap Administration is always available to tell a team whether a certain expenditure would be inside or outside the cap. Except in an extraordinary situation, the team can always know whether to spend 'X' before they do so. After that, it's just a matter of adding and subtracting. 

[GrumpyYoungMan]

Even if you exclude the tax credit and say that Red Bull overspent in the region of 1.8M, do you really believe that that's the reason they are currently dominating?

I don't think any team would be silly enough to take a wind tunnel reduction and a 7M fine just to spend another 1 or 2 million.

To catch up they might need to breach by over 10 or 15M, maybe even more. Breaching by that amount would be handled a lot different.

 

In my opinion I would say the £1.8 million was only reached as they argued over every penny spent and, in the end, they probably reached a bad compromise and agreed an settlement - not sure how even a tax credit can be deducted from the money spent?

 

I would also say a lot of the loopholes would have been closed, privately!

 

If the risk wasn’t worth it, then they wouldn’t have overspent, it is as simple as that…

[GrumpyYoungMan]

The real question is, how do you know that RB aren't cheating this season? They were caught out last time, but are now much wiser in how to hide spending, so its feasible they still are - along with others  I might add! There's already been talk of some teams 'outsourcing' work ostensibly hidden by disguising it as work outside of the F1 technological realm. Sometimes the truth will out, but as they say, once bitten, try twice as hard to hide what is happening.

All the teams have and will do this... its how far you push the boundaries....

[Rumblestrip]

Who knows but they would certainly get closer, and gain an advantage over their other competition. 

 

That doesn't really relate to my original point.

 

I was wondering if a team did go significantly over the cap i.e. something that couldn't be argued with like $50m, would they do it and just accept the penalties. Would it be worth it in the longer run to do that? Kind of a financial equivalent of Mercedes using new PUs towards the end of 2021. They knew what the penalty was going to be and decided that the end result would give them a better points haul.

[jacdaniel]

It was y $1.8m million, which can gain a big advantage for any team that over spends by this much, so there is a big advantage for teams willing to take the risk/reward factor, but of course they have to make that over spend work, which RB did.

So I guess that 1.8M or 432K as per the FIA was the greatest spending in the history of F1.

[thefinalapex]

So I guess that 1.8M or 432K as per the FIA was the greatest spending in the history of F1.

Mark Hughes responded to this as well on the race and said its wrong that 1.8 million is the reason for their advantage, he said if that was the case every team would have done it. We had years with unlimited budgets and now according to some people on here 1.8 million is worth 0.5-1 second of time, delusional.

[RedRabbit]

Mark Hughes responded to this as well on the race and said its wrong that 1.8 million is the reason for their advantage, he said if that was the case every team would have done it. We had years with unlimited budgets and now according to some people on here 1.8 million is worth 0.5-1 second of time, delusional.

It wasn't even people on here. It was Binotto and Wolff. Binotto quite specifically gave a time value per million, which was around 0.5 seconds.

I don't expect Red Bull to be over again.

I actually really hope that nobody is over by anything more than Red Bull were. It would be quite disappointing.

[New Britain]

Mark Hughes responded to this as well on the race and said its wrong that 1.8 million is the reason for their advantage, he said if that was the case every team would have done it. We had years with unlimited budgets and now according to some people on here 1.8 million is worth 0.5-1 second of time, delusional.

You are overlooking that their spending breached the limit in 2021 - the season when the title went down to the last lap of the last race and any incremental improvement might have made the difference.