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Electric cars rule the roads... but are they really a success?


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#151 Magoo

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Posted 11 September 2023 - 10:53

To be honest none of the big boys have ever got serious about building a low cost platform from scratch. Every time they just decontent/re source their small car which was designed around first world assembly plants,regs and trade-offs. Tata Nano was the first clean sheet design in a long time, that bombed in the market because effectively if you drive a 3 yo Fiesta you might have bought it new, whereas the Nano advertised you could afford nothing better. And you can guarantee no engineer would have thought of that!

 

Quite so.  The approach is guided by the projected returns for the enterprise. It's difficult enough to justify a new platform for a conventional automobile. 



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#152 flatlandsman

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Posted 11 September 2023 - 11:07

I realise this, it is why the vast majority of mass produced cars are now made with numerous people potentially being customers using floorpans and running gear etc. 

 

All the more reason to combine with a company who makes stuff out there!!



#153 Bloggsworth

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Posted 26 October 2023 - 21:40

One understands from "The Cybertruck Owners Club" that Cybertrucks will begin deliveries at the end of November - Presumably, the first will be going to Aristophanes in Cloud Cuckoo Land, followed closely by Tesla beach huts on Mars...



#154 Bloggsworth

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Posted 22 November 2023 - 16:24

From today's Guardian:

 

A judge has found “reasonable evidence” that Elon Musk and other executives at Tesla knew that the company’s self-driving technology was defective but still allowed the cars to be driven in an unsafe manner anyway, according to a recent ruling issued in Florida.

 

Palm Beach county circuit court judge Reid Scott said he’d found evidence that Tesla “engaged in a marketing strategy that painted the products as autonomous” and that Musk’s public statements about the technology “had a significant effect on the belief about the capabilities of the products”.



#155 Magoo

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Posted 22 November 2023 - 19:55

From today's Guardian:

 

A judge has found “reasonable evidence” that Elon Musk and other executives at Tesla knew that the company’s self-driving technology was defective but still allowed the cars to be driven in an unsafe manner anyway, according to a recent ruling issued in Florida.

 

Palm Beach county circuit court judge Reid Scott said he’d found evidence that Tesla “engaged in a marketing strategy that painted the products as autonomous” and that Musk’s public statements about the technology “had a significant effect on the belief about the capabilities of the products”.

 

 

I drive a Tesla with FSD beta every day and I have determined the car does everything Tesla says it does. Fight me. 

 

These various charges generally come down to semantical arguments about what the words "autopilot" and "full self driving" mean, or more precisely, what people may take them  to mean. 



#156 Bloggsworth

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Posted 22 November 2023 - 22:12

I drive a Tesla with FSD beta every day and I have determined the car does everything Tesla says it does. Fight me. 

 

These various charges generally come down to semantical arguments about what the words "autopilot" and "full self driving" mean, or more precisely, what people may take them  to mean. 

A person without a degree in linguistics might think that "utopilot" and "Self-driving" mean exactly that, not "A little bit of autopilot" or "A Quite a lot of self-driving" - Unfortunately, not everyone's a sceptic, and they tend to believe advertising.


Edited by Bloggsworth, 22 November 2023 - 22:13.


#157 Magoo

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Posted 22 November 2023 - 23:35

A person without a degree in linguistics might think that "utopilot" and "Self-driving" mean exactly that, not "A little bit of autopilot" or "A Quite a lot of self-driving" - Unfortunately, not everyone's a sceptic, and they tend to believe advertising.

 

What does an aircraft autopilot do? Where are the pilot and co-pilot while it is in operation, and what are they doing?



#158 Greg Locock

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Posted 23 November 2023 - 00:07

Real Soon Now they'll be in the bathroom. There is a serious proposal by the airlines to go to single pilot operation. https://aviationweek...reased-scrutiny

 

There's a lot of pushback on that. 



#159 Magoo

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Posted 23 November 2023 - 02:09

On a historical note, in 1958 the Chrysler Corporation introduced its cruise control system. It was called Autopilot. Most everyone survived as far as I know. 

 

The average civilian's conception of "autopilot" seems to be based not so much on actual aircraft systems, but on Warner Brothers cartoons and the "Airplane!" movie franchise. Maybe someone could sue them. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1958-Autopilot-.jpg



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#160 Catalina Park

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Posted 23 November 2023 - 08:11

Tesla's autopilot is a joke, it doesn't hold a constant altitude at all.



#161 GreenMachine

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Posted 23 November 2023 - 11:53

What does an aircraft autopilot do? Where are the pilot and co-pilot while it is in operation, and what are they doing?

 

 

Q1:  Quite a lot, given they are plugged into the aircraft computers, they basically fly the aircraft from point A via any number of way points to point B, based on the instructions programmed in prior to departure.

 

Q2:  Hopefully, they are sitting attentively in the cockpit, prepared to take over if needed as they are supposed to do.  But, who is watching ...?

 

Real Soon Now they'll be in the bathroom. There is a serious proposal by the airlines to go to single pilot operation. https://aviationweek...reased-scrutiny

 

There's a lot of pushback on that. 

 

The Qantas A380 near disaster QF32 had FIVE pilots!  A single pilot would have been overwhelmed in that situation - the computers would have crashed the plane but for the crew going back to basics.

 

I hope the pushback works.


Edited by GreenMachine, 23 November 2023 - 11:54.


#162 Bloggsworth

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Posted 23 November 2023 - 14:04

What does an aircraft autopilot do? Where are the pilot and co-pilot while it is in operation, and what are they doing?

An aircraft's autopilot only works when things don't need looking after - As soon as there's a problem, like turbulence, the autopilot says "I'm out of here!"  doesn't even warn the pilots that it is ducking out. While there is mayhem going on the pilots are expected to notice that the light has gone out....



#163 Magoo

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Posted 23 November 2023 - 16:12

An aircraft's autopilot only works when things don't need looking after - As soon as there's a problem, like turbulence, the autopilot says "I'm out of here!"  doesn't even warn the pilots that it is ducking out. While there is mayhem going on the pilots are expected to notice that the light has gone out....

 

Indeed. When I engage the Tesla Autopilot, I am still expected to maintain control of the  vehicle. If the steering sensor detects that my hand is not on the wheel, or if the camera vision discovers that i am on the phone or otherwise not paying attention, I am issued a series of stern warnings in rapid fire and then the Autopilot shuts off. 

 

Everyone who drives a Tesla  knows this is  how it works, the only way it works. I suppose I shouldn't say everyone. We do have those folks who don't know to turn off the mixer before licking the beaters, God bless them. 



#164 Grippy

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 14:24

Not sure if this is the most suitable thread, but anyway,

 

"Northvolt to bring sodium-ion batteries to European market"

"Swedish firm highlights cells’ cheap and sustainable materials for energy storage"

 

https://www.chemistr...4018576.article

 

Only 2/3rds the storage capacity of Li-ion, but a lot cheaper and more sustainable due to lack of rare-earth elements.

Likely safer than Li-ion.

likely much faster charging than Li-ion.

 

edit; grammar


Edited by Grippy, 30 November 2023 - 14:25.


#165 Grippy

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 15:08

Just seen this as well

 

New technology installed beneath Detroit street can charge electric vehicles as they drive

https://gandernewsro...-as-they-drive/



#166 Nathan

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 15:58

Real Soon Now they'll be in the bathroom. There is a serious proposal by the airlines to go to single pilot operation. https://aviationweek...reased-scrutiny

 

There's a lot of pushback on that. 

 

Dassault's new 10X will be the first heavy business jet certified for single pilot.  I wonder if A.I. will become best suited for the co-pilot role. 



#167 GreenMachine

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 20:51

Will AI be able to land the plane?  Will AI be able to land a crippled plane (see QF32 above)?  

 

I know my anxiety levels would be off the scale if I knew AI was landing my flight with a dead/dying/unconscious single pilot  :eek:  :eek:

 

The cockpit tapes from QF32 would be instructive, and illustrate the struggles of the crew, but they are nonexistent as a result of being overwritten by the extended ground-running after landing trying to shut down No1.



#168 gruntguru

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 21:20

AI can land planes.

 

The overwriting of tapes you mention is astonishing in this day and age. OK the CVR is a special piece of kit that also needs to be indestructible but in this age of solid-state TeraByte storage another recorder that keeps a lifetime of cockpit voice recording (and flight data recording for that matter) would be simple to do.



#169 Bloggsworth

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Posted 30 November 2023 - 21:53

AI can land planes.

 

The overwriting of tapes you mention is astonishing in this day and age. OK the CVR is a special piece of kit that also needs to be indestructible but in this age of solid-state TeraByte storage another recorder that keeps a lifetime of cockpit voice recording (and flight data recording for that matter) would be simple to do.

Must be why the Google Cloud had a hiccup today - Glad it wasn;t flying my plane...

 

CVR records in a loop, something like 30 to 60 minutes if memory serves; this may be because digital recordings have to ended with a software protocol, which may be circumvented during a "Non routine operation" as it would be described by at least one airline...


Edited by Bloggsworth, 30 November 2023 - 22:01.


#170 Catalina Park

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Posted 01 December 2023 - 07:29

Not sure if this is the most suitable thread, but anyway,

 

"Northvolt to bring sodium-ion batteries to European market"

"Swedish firm highlights cells’ cheap and sustainable materials for energy storage"

 

https://www.chemistr...4018576.article

 

Only 2/3rds the storage capacity of Li-ion, but a lot cheaper and more sustainable due to lack of rare-earth elements.

Likely safer than Li-ion.

likely much faster charging than Li-ion.

 

edit; grammar

Who uses 'rare earths' in batteries? 



#171 GreenMachine

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Posted 01 December 2023 - 10:58

AI can land planes.

 

The overwriting of tapes you mention is astonishing in this day and age. OK the CVR is a special piece of kit that also needs to be indestructible but in this age of solid-state TeraByte storage another recorder that keeps a lifetime of cockpit voice recording (and flight data recording for that matter) would be simple to do.

 

My point was that the computers were telling the flight crew to do things that would have crashed the plane.  Sure, auto land is decades old and no doubt much improved.  Airbus, and presumably Boeing, didn't anticipate a Trent turning into a bomb and hurling shrapnel through the wing shredding major wiring looms and puncturing fuel tanks.  For example, because the computers knew the left wing was light, they wanted to transfer fuel to that wing to rebalance the aircraft.  Why was it light?  It had holes in the fuel tanks ... the aircraft systems were substantially degraded, and that was compensated for by experienced pilots using eyeballs and those decades of experience.

 

I know, this is not AI, it is oldfashioned computer technology.  When something unexpected, unanticipated (in a contingency sense) happens, I want humans in the loop.  AI might be (or become) competent in these extreme cases, but if I am one of the 300+ people on board, I want a human in control when things go badly wrong.

 

 

Must be why the Google Cloud had a hiccup today - Glad it wasn;t flying my plane...

 

CVR records in a loop, something like 30 to 60 minutes if memory serves; this may be because digital recordings have to ended with a software protocol, which may be circumvented during a "Non routine operation" as it would be described by at least one airline...

 

That voice recorder timed out at 90 minutes IIRC, it took ages for the No1 engine to be stopped and until they could shut the cockpit down it was recording.  Maybe there has been some rethinking of that number, I'd hope so.



#172 gruntguru

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Posted 02 December 2023 - 03:18

A second recording system, recording for much greater periods would be very useful for analysing near-miss and similar incidents. Doesn't need to be ultra robust like the CVR and could easily be integrated into one of the flight management computers.

 

Perhaps there are concerns around privacy? It is a workplace though - and one where mistakes can be catastrophic.


Edited by gruntguru, 02 December 2023 - 03:19.


#173 Grippy

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Posted 17 December 2023 - 16:02

Who uses 'rare earths' in batteries? 

Sorry, I misunderstood this quote in the article - "The acceleration of sodium-ion batteries is also part of a drive to make electric vehicles with fewer critical raw materials such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, copper, rare earth elements and graphite" - to mean REEs were in the batteries rather than in the motors as it was predominantly a battery article.

I was confusing REEs with concerns over cobalt supplies and didn't realise cobalt isn't one.

 

(I should also check this forum more frequently).



#174 GreenMachine

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Posted 17 December 2023 - 20:46

A second recording system, recording for much greater periods would be very useful for analysing near-miss and similar incidents. Doesn't need to be ultra robust like the CVR and could easily be integrated into one of the flight management computers.

 

Perhaps there are concerns around privacy? It is a workplace though - and one where mistakes can be catastrophic.

 

Two options I think, not mutually exclusive.  Increase the 90 minutes held on-board (perhaps from start-up to shut-down), or as increasing these aircraft are 'connected' to the cloud, upload to the cloud.  Privacy not an issue, or there would be no recording s at all.  Use of the recordings could be (is?) restricted to accident/incident analysis.



#175 Greg Locock

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Posted 17 December 2023 - 21:52

Given the soon to be ubiquitous internet via satellite there is no real reason why aircraft couldn't be on the web continuously.  I must admit I am itching to try Starlink in my car while we drive around.



#176 TennisUK

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Posted 21 December 2023 - 06:42

I’ve been on a few flights where internet access was available throughout for a surprisingly small fee.

#177 desmo

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Posted 21 December 2023 - 14:55

I'm shocked there still are trans-oceanic flights using planes that aren't fully web connected in this day and age. Makes the slog substantially more tolerable and from the prices charged when it is optional, it obviously isn't hugely expensive to implement.



#178 404KF2

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Posted 21 December 2023 - 15:28

On my most recent flight on BA from London to here, I spent the 8h setting multiple Tetris records. haha



#179 Magoo

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Posted 21 December 2023 - 21:33

I'm shocked there still are trans-oceanic flights using planes that aren't fully web connected in this day and age. Makes the slog substantially more tolerable and from the prices charged when it is optional, it obviously isn't hugely expensive to implement.

 

Reminds me of the days (not that long ago) when the more fancy and expensive the hotel, the more costly and troublesome the internet service was. 


Edited by Magoo, 21 December 2023 - 21:34.


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#180 desmo

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Posted 21 December 2023 - 22:38

I was in the flagship Air France lounge at CDG Paris without a French plug adapter recently and while every single lamp had a USB-2 plug, there wasn't a USB-C anywhere to charge my 3-year old iPhone. I ended up having to leave it on a cheap inductive charging mat on the office desk to keep it from dying. I didn't want the bottomless Champagne (I had to drive at my destination) or buffet or massage, I just wanted to charge my phone.



#181 Magoo

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Posted 22 December 2023 - 00:06

#First World Problems, that's me. 



#182 mariner

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Posted 23 December 2023 - 15:34

Going back to  the Quantas QF32 near disaster you don't need the cockpit tapes as the captain in charge wrote a book about it.

 

https://www.goodread...k/show/1578385s

happened  that a check captain  and t deadheading  crew were on board and the book describes their battle against the planes programs systems to stay airborne . At one point the planes programs said transfer  fuel form one tank to another. All the pilots felt instinctively it was wrong so the Captain asked for an instant show of hands . All hands voted "no" at once so they ignored the computers, quite rightly as it turned out..

lBeasicaly so many sensors were defunct teh programs could run properly 

 

Reding the  book is sobering if you want to utterly trust a mobile machine's on board programming.



#183 Bloggsworth

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Posted 24 December 2023 - 09:42

Just musing last night and came to wodering, just how much is it going to cost to convert EVs to disabled persons?



#184 Lee Nicolle

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Posted 28 December 2023 - 04:46

Speaking to retired pilot mate the other day. He flew 'personal ' jets which had all the bells and whistles. Until something went wrong with either the aircraft or the autopilot. In either circumstance the crew then had to nanny the plane to its destination. In his case not super hard but I suspect for many I suspect quite hard.



#185 Bloggsworth

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 17:53

I see that in the last quarter of '23 BYD overtook Tesla for production of EVs.



#186 Nathan

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 21:15

Seems inevitable the low cost makers will eventually outsell the brands priced 2-3 times higher.



#187 Greg Locock

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 21:40

In a nasty/interesting/logical bit of marketing speak, PHEVs get lumped in as electric vehicles, if for no other reason that distinguishing between a BEV with a range extender and a plug in Prius would come down to a very arbitrary decision. BYD sales include PHEVs.



#188 desmo

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Posted 02 January 2024 - 22:06

PHEVs currently seem like the sweet spot functionally for a lot of use cases. I don't like the inevitable added parts count and complexity but when they are working they seem like the best of both worlds. As BEV ranges and charging infrastructure get significantly improved, they should naturally die off but that seems a ways off still.



#189 Greg Locock

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Posted 03 January 2024 - 05:26

Yup, my perfect second car would have been the Volt, or the PHEV RAV4 if it gets here, tho i doubt I can afford that (given our 2nd car at the moment is a 2008 Astra!)


Edited by Greg Locock, 03 January 2024 - 21:27.


#190 cbo

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Posted 03 January 2024 - 07:29

PHEVs currently seem like the sweet spot functionally for a lot of use cases. I don't like the inevitable added parts count and complexity but when they are working they seem like the best of both worlds. As BEV ranges and charging infrastructure get significantly improved, they should naturally die off but that seems a ways off still.


A PHEV with 75-100 km electric range, a 50 kw DC charging option and a 100+ horsepower electric engine is a great option if a BEV is not the right choice at the moment.

I wouldn't be worrying too much about complexity. The extra electric parts are few and comparatively simple. You are much more likely to have a failure in the ICE or mechanical transmission parts in my - albeit limited - experience.

#191 mariner

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 17:54

Going back to EV sales success and the current public "nobody wants to buy an EV " discussion the Autocar business page had an interesting article on which UK importers were ready to get to the gov't mandate of 22% BEV's in 2024.

 

 

 

Obviously, Tesla and the Chinese i.e. MG are fine. BMW and MB are close based on 2023 sales of EV's . That surprised me but they sell premium price cars where the battery cost is easier to absorb, and mostly to business fleets where the income tax advantage is huge. Jaguar Land Rover , or JLR now, are nowhere and are basically selling just  diesels until 2025. They will either roll forward the 2024 shortfall and make 2025 harder or buy credits from Tesla or Chinese.

 

 

 

The interesting bit is the sudden slump in Q4 2023 EV registrations. You might think that is consumer rejection of EV's but it is thought the real reason is importers holding back EV supply so they can deliver the backlog in 2024 when it really matters!!

 

 

So the market in the UK will be subject to all sorts of sales manipulation and , I suspect, any importer in trouble will do the obvious and raise petrol/hybrid prices sharply once the EV supply is assured.

 

 

So the cry of "EV's cost too much vs petrol cars " may well be solved but not the way consumers think as petrol will go up towards EV pricing to swing the demand?

 

 

 

I think something similar happened with US CAFE in the late 70's early 80's . Perhaps Mago can remember?


Edited by mariner, 07 January 2024 - 19:12.


#192 Magoo

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 21:10

As per ordinary, the automakers can always be counted upon to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

 

Never mind the good of the company or the customers, we have to protect our phony-baloney jobs for another quarter. 



#193 Magoo

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Posted 07 January 2024 - 21:13

I think I have come up with an idea to get traditional American pickup buyers to stop hating on the Cybertruck. Slap a giant faux-semi tractor grille on the front like the rest of the herd.