After an action-packed Dutch GP, there's no rest for the weary as F1 blasts into Monza for the annual tifosi homecoming and joyous worship of speed.
In complete contrast to Zandvoort, skinny downforce and low drag is the order of the weekend, and the challenge to topple Red Bull changes hands from Mercedes and Aston Martin to Ferrari, and - whisper it quietly - Williams?
It's a stroll in the park for Round 14 of the 2023 FIA Formula One World Championship!
Intuition for Italy
Despite winning all before and after them, ultra-low DF is such a rarity on the calendar that it's enough to evoke intrigue as to whether this could be the key that topples Red Bull. Last year's race was won at a canter, but rivals have shed their drag in the intervening twelve months, and Monza always throws up interesting hurdles re car setup and balance. Will it be enough to stop Verstappen standing alone on 10 (ten) consecutive wins, and how apt it would be at the circuit that pays homage to Alberto Ascari.
Mercedes blew a big opportunity in Zandvoort and, worryingly, their operational failures are becoming more and more glaring. Thankfully, Monza is a simple circuit with a simple strategy and the forecast is good, so they can focus on unlocking as much speed from the unwieldy W14 as possible. Russell scored a solid podium last year, albeit assisted by a heap of engine penalties, but don't be fooled by the rumours and assumptions of a low-drag weakness, they should still be rostrum contenders. Both drivers have the New Contract Bounce.
Aston Martin's yo-yo season is suddenly heading in the right direction, and Monza is a great opportunity to further confirm their progress. They are likely to slip back in competitiveness slightly, but will be focussed on disrupting Mercedes and Ferrari, rather than looking over their shoulder at McLaren and Alpine. Can Alonso inspire his way onto the podium again? Drugovich subs in for FP1.
Ferrari return home with the Prancing Horse's tail firmly between their legs after a bruising Zandvoort, with the tifosi expectation weighing heavily. Monza is likely to be their best-suited circuit from now until the season's end, so they must maximise it with everything they have. The SF-23 has shown well at lower-downforce tracks like Canada and Austria, so there may be enough for Leclerc or Sainz to deliver a famous upset on home turf.
It feels like McLaren are still adjusting to life as podium contenders after a topsy-turvy weekend in the Netherlands. As shown in Spa, their number one weakness is straight line speed, so expectations are low at the start of the event. Perhaps this mental shift will be enough to set them on the right track, under-promise, over-deliver?
Speaking of podium contenders, Alpine surprised us all with a sudden surge in competitiveness and well-deserved top 3 for Gasly last time out. Just after I had cast them into anonymity, they came back swinging! Let's see if they can double-up one week later.
Now then - 
- where do we stand on WILLIAMS? 
Are we set for a giant-killing? What was once a speedboat without a driver is now a refined package with aero chops to complement its monstrous top speed. Seriously, are they mixing it at the front? Before a wheel is turned, this is already my story of the weekend. I am all aboard the rocket ship - Grove, we have lift off! 
Elsewhere, the minnows of Haas, Alfa Romeo and Alpha Tauri will be hoping against hope that the aforementioned Willies don't deliver on pre-event expectation. Out of the bottom three teams, it's probably Alfa that have the best chance of breaking free and nicking a point or two. Remember, Lawson returns for his full debut in replacement of the resting Ricciardo. Go well, Liam!
Tyres and Weather
It's the second running of the ATA, meaning 11 total sets of tyres instead of 13, and mandated compounds in qualifying.
Despite the tyres being one step softer - the first time we've seen a C5 at Monza - it should still be a straightforward one stop on Sunday, meaning the ATA will have less of an impact as it did in Hungary, albeit run plans in FP1 and 2 are still likely to confuse.
Finally, finally, it's a grand prix weekend without rain. Annoyingly, Monza is such a simple track that the importance of three dry days is neutered slightly, but nonetheless I am very relieved.
Fri - 27C/80F, dry
Sat - 29C/84F, dry
Sun - 31C/88F, dry
Schedule
Back on track with the usual European timings:
BST CEST
FP1 1230 1330
FP2 1600 1700
FP3 1130 1230
Q 1500 1600
R 1400 1500
Convert to my time zone
The usual Formula 3 (finale), Formula 2 and Porsche Supercup supporting. Full schedule.
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