Every driver is in a category in my head. Occasionally we get a driver like Hamilton, Vettel or Verstappen where we saw elite talent pretty much instantly and it's clear that they will be a World Champion, and likely win multiple. They are so good that they'll be in the right car at the right time. Other times you get drivers like Button, Rosberg and Ricciardo where I feel like they can win a title if circumstances allow. Then there are drivers like Magnussen, Ocon and Albon where I think, no question, they're decent, but there's never going to be a situation where they win the title. Then we have a separate list of guys lucky to be in the sport.
We have 3 WDCs on the grid of course, Lewis, Max and Fernando, so they're not included on my list.
I move drivers around categories occasionally, such as Ricciardo down from a possible WDC to not going to win one. I also had Montoya and Hulkenberg as guys who had the potential who didn't make it. I've always had Sainz in my list of 'good, but not a chance of a WDC' and I'm wondering if I've been overly harsh on him. I've always had Leclerc in my 'of course he's going to win a title, probably at least 3' ever since watching him dominate F2. Sainz beat him last year and is 19 points clear of him this year after being the man to end the Red Bull win streak. He also beat Norris twice, who is firmly on my list of 'if circumstances allow, he can win a title'.
My current list has only Leclerc in the 'of course he'll win at least one' category and only Russell and Norris in the next category, with Piastri as a question mark as he's been very impressive for his debut year. I don't think anyone else on the grid will win one. Of course though, I'm now doubting both my assessment of Sainz and Leclerc.
So, do you have a list like this and if so, who is in which category?