75 replies to this topic

[PayasYouRace]

So Red Bull were beaten in Singapore. Will it be their only defeat this year?

[Taxi]

They will be beaten again probabily even on pace. They kind of stoped developing the car and Ferrari/Mercedes are getting very close. Hamilton will win again. 

[sportyskells]

I sayv yes due to the one unknown everyone got the Las vegas gp

[FirstnameLastname]

Mercedes constructors champions, Hamilton WDC

CONFIRMED

[ConsiderAndGo]

They will be beaten again probabily even on pace. They kind of stoped developing the car and Ferrari/Mercedes are getting very close. Hamilton will win again.

How are they getting really close?

[Taxi]

Qualifying is superclose and Ferrari is probabily the fastest car in one lap again. In races Mercedes are also getting better after giving up the zerosidepod. Yesterday had Hamilton been in front of Russel he would have won that race.  Circuits like Brasil and Las Vegas may give him the oportunity.  

Edited by Taxi, 18 September 2023 - 07:36.

[Ali623]

On pace, unlikely. Singapore was a complete disaster weekend for them, messed up the setup on a circuit that didn't suit their car anyway and their strategy was screwed in the race by badly-timed safety cars. Yet despite all this, Max still finished 5th (almost 4th) and had very strong pace in the final stint.

 

Every remaining circuit is easier for overtaking and none should suit their car as badly as Singapore in theory. Mexico and Brazil are sometimes outlier circuits, and Las Vegas is an unknown, but I still think they'll be favourites at all of them.

[Ferrim]

Now that they no longer have the carrot of achieving a perfect season, they will at least drop one more race. And the MP4/4 will remain the most dominant car (15/16 yields a higher percentage than 20/22).

Edited by Ferrim, 18 September 2023 - 07:58.

[JimmyClark]

I think in Vegas they will be beaten. They won't fire up the tyres quickly enough, and that will make them vulnerable. 

 

Also by then development will truly be on 2024, and now they can't 'win every race', they won't put as much effort into it as they would otherwise have done. 

[TomNokoe]

I want to see just how quick the upgraded McLaren is at Suzuka and Qatar. Both of these tracks are comparable to Silverstone and you can argue play to McLaren's strengths even more so because neither is as power-sensitive and has fewer slower corners. Then consider they've upgraded significantly since then and surely you have a high-speed demon of a car?

[jonklug]

If they are it will be because now with the possibility of winning all the races off the table, the focus will be 100% on next year. I do think Verstappen will be gunning to win all the remaining races however, but I think Las Vegas is an unknown and maybe Brazil being quite bumpy can also create issues similar to Singapore. But let's see. 

[jacdaniel]

I think it's quite normal not to win all the races or even over 90% so I think they will be beaten again.

Red Bull have admitted that they moved focus to next year's car. They've also stated that the wind tunnel penalty will hurt them later on in the season (Now).

Perez is going through the motions and unlikely to do much.

Like 2022, it got much closer towards the end.

[goldenboy]

Yes, they will be beatan again. They will still be the strongest overall but everyone smells blood now.

Edited by goldenboy, 18 September 2023 - 09:25.

[Anderis]

Funny how a just few days ago most opinions were "no way they get beaten" and now it's "yes, they will be beaten again".

[dia6olo]

Qualifying is superclose and Ferrari is probabily the fastest car in one lap again. In races Mercedes are also getting better after giving up the zerosidepod. Yesterday had Hamilton been in front of Russel he would have won that race.  Circuits like Brasil and Las Vegas may give him the oportunity.  

But that was because of a safety car and strategy call rather than the Mercedes being closer, they were never a threat until then.

Edited by dia6olo, 18 September 2023 - 10:34.

[SenorSjon]

Brazil last year was bad and we still have 3 sprints to go. They take notoriously long to dial in the car. It is even weird to have Qatar as sprint. They have never driven there with this generation of cars.

[Spillage]

I've gone for yes, but not on pace. Verstappen has had bulletproof reliability in the races and I think he's due a mechanical retirement. If that happens it's only 50/50 whether Perez can pick up the pieces.

[Taxi]

Verstappen is also due to a costly mistake in a race. Statisticaly is inevitable.

[Ramon69]

Verstappen is also due to a costly mistake in a race. Statisticaly is inevitable.

Stats mean nothing. It depends on how he is driving. When you are driving with a comfortable advantage, like Max & RB have all year, it's less likely that either of them will make a costly mistake. But if the others would be a lot closer, then I don't disagree with you. Max is for sure one of the greats of this sport (or he will become at least), but I don't think he is always going to drive flawless and we will see that when Red Bull will have some competition.

[SteveHam]

So Red Bull were beaten in Singapore. Will it be their only defeat this year?

We can only hope but it was honestly a one off, it happened to Mercedes in Singapore in 2015 I think. Dominant car but setup was horrible.

[tempname11]

Verstappen is also due to a costly mistake in a race. Statisticaly is inevitable.

You flip a (fair) coin 5 times and it lands heads 5 times in a row. What is the probability of it landing heads next time?

[ARTGP]

Brazil last year was bad and we still have 3 sprints to go. They take notoriously long to dial in the car. It is even weird to have Qatar as sprint. They have never driven there with this generation of cars.

 

Brazil and Austria  last year were related. They confirmed their progress on that front in Austria this year. 

Edited by ARTGP, 18 September 2023 - 11:31.

[ARTGP]

The field certainly are closer due to the engine parity and regulations, but don't think you can discount actual position entirely. Q3 is still the top 10 cars, regardless of the actual gap.

Either way, that you have to look back 8 years to find another example that is similarly odd really does show how uncommon this level of performance swing is.

It's been happening to some extent on Perez's side of the garage for several races at the start of the year where he was knocked out in Q1/Q2. I know people like to imagine Perez is an awful awful driver, but his struggles show the RB19's ugly side. He might be slower than Verstappen, but he's not "knock out in Q1 with the other guy on pole" slow. The car and his issues with tire preparation play a role in being a hit or a complete miss. 

Edited by ARTGP, 18 September 2023 - 11:44.

[flyboym3]

I think it's quite normal not to win all the races or even over 90% so I think they will be beaten again.

Red Bull have admitted that they moved focus to next year's car. They've also stated that the wind tunnel penalty will hurt them later on in the season (Now).

Perez is going through the motions and unlikely to do much.

Like 2022, it got much closer towards the end.

Hmm I thought the wind tunnel penalty is just to about to finish, beginning of October.

[SenorSjon]

Brazil and Austria  last year were related. They confirmed their progress on that front in Austria this year. 

 

Last year they were fast in Singapore. Only this year one part was bumpy and the other part flat. That cost them a lot.

[ARTGP]

Last year they were fast in Singapore. Only this year one part was bumpy and the other part flat. That cost them a lot.

 

Last year there were signs of the struggle though. In '22, they never topped any of the free practice sessions in Singapore. Verstappen was 3 tenths off in FP2, and half a second off in FP3.  Qualifying was an outlier because it was a wet session. The race was also a bit of an outlier because it was a wet to dry race and even at the end, the track was still damp, Merc drivers made a mess of it, and Ferrari was chewing it's tires after the TD. The opposition was much more sorted in this year's event relative to RB. 

Edited by ARTGP, 18 September 2023 - 13:00.

[1player]

Funny how a just few days ago most opinions were "no way they get beaten" and now it's "yes, they will be beaten again".

Would you have believe if after Monza I told you the following race both RB cars would drop out in Q2 and barely score any points? No one could have predicted such an awful performance after a dominating half season.

It's so ridiculous I almost want to believe it's Horner and Marko trolling the grid a bit, bored out of their mind of steamrolling everyone.

[Alexis*27]

Last year there were signs of the struggle though. In '22, they never topped any of the free practice sessions in Singapore. Verstappen was 3 tenths off in FP2, and half a second off in FP3.  Qualifying was an outlier because it was a wet session. The race was also a bit of an outlier because it was a wet to dry race and even at the end, the track was still damp, Merc drivers made a mess of it, and Ferrari was chewing it's tires after the TD. The opposition was much more sorted in this year's event relative to RB. 

On the other hand they were blaming setup issues this year. Seems odd that the baseline would shift such a lot considering this year's car is still an evolution of last year's. 
The car was also so unbalanced and hard to drive, as opposed to just lacking a bit of pace.

[ARTGP]

On the other hand they were blaming setup issues this year. Seems odd that the baseline would shift such a lot considering this year's car is still an evolution of last year's. 
The car was also so unbalanced and hard to drive, as opposed to just lacking a bit of pace.

 

I agree, odd. I suspect that considering their dominance this season, they went more extreme in last year's design direction, with the consequence of making Singapore much worse. Not a bad compromise to be honest and as I said earlier, Verstappen just had a bad turn 1 in Q2. He was on target for Q3 otherwise. 

 

There were also hints of the RB19's recalcitrance in Canada, even though they won there. That is another circuit that is bumpy and requires the curb usage. Verstappen reported sliding all over the place and said it felt like he was on ice in his hard tire stint and insisted on going back to the mediums at the final stop, even though he was leading the race. Very similar complaints in Singapore. The problem is when he is out front, no one tends to pay attention to his criticisms of the car.  Canada, and even Spain radio messages have hints on how the car can feel like it's driving on ice. 

Edited by ARTGP, 18 September 2023 - 13:35.

[jjcale]

Using my own "special method" of analysing .... I would say no. .... Redbull are far enough in front to win the remaining races comfortably .... and now that they have broken the records for continuity they promptly did their duty to to sport to "not win" one and so now they are even again .... they have no more need to "not win" a race for the rest of the season. 

 

**** happens, so I am not 100% sure about this prediction - and Singapore could have been a legit "not win" ... it wasnt like they turned up at a random track and "couldnt make the tyres work" or "cant find a set up this weekend" .... Singapore is a legit outlier. 

 

So, pragmatically, I am in the wait and see camp .... but just for the sake of fun on the forum, I am going to go full "theorist" and say NO .... They are under no further obligation to "not win". 

[KWSN - DSM]

I think there should be an option, yes at Las Vegas.

[Kao18]

If it could happen once I dont see how it couldnt happen again.

Its a lot closer than some people suggest and like Max said they need to get everything absolutely right which is not that easy to do consistantly.. RB does not have a magic party mode.

Edited by Kao18, 18 September 2023 - 13:36.

[Bloggsworth]

Salad days for conspiricy theorists - RB have won on fast circuits, slow circuits, wiggly circuit, open circuits, bumpy circuits and smooth circuits; suddenly, after an FIA directive, RB are uncompetetive - Hmm, we await developments next Sunday...

[mclarensmps]

I think there's one more chaotic race on the cards this year. I don't see this absolute monster of a car losing on pace anywhere. Begrudgingly, this thing is up there with the MP4/4 as one of the best F1 cars ever made, and it's only been let down by it's second driver. 

But I'm holding onto hope that McLaren can still retain the record for winning all but one race (Yes yes, I know this RB has won more races in a season outright, but still). 

[Henri Greuter]

I think there's one more chaotic race on the cards this year. I don't see this absolute monster of a car losing on pace anywhere. Begrudgingly, this thing is up there with the MP4/4 as one of the best F1 cars ever made, and it's only been let down by it's second driver. 

But I'm holding onto hope that McLaren can still retain the record for winning all but one race (Yes yes, I know this RB has won more races in a season outright, but still). 

A more fair comparison with MP4/4 would be to rate the RB19 after 16 races, the same amount as done by the MP4/4. Should RB win next week then at least they matched the 15/16 record of the MP4 yet I still will put the MP4/4 over the RB19 since the Mac had more double victories and the fact that not once in 1988 the MP4/4 had been so uncompetitive in any event that season in either qualifying or race as the RB19 was at Singapore.

But with 16/16 no longer possible I think it's safe to say that MP4/4 remains the best ever car, Had the RB19 indeed scored 16/16, then despite the weaker overall results for two cars during the season I would have put the two on the same level.

Edited by Henri Greuter, 18 September 2023 - 14:48.

[Risil]

I'm confident that the MP4/4 had among the least impressive competition ever.

[PlatenGlass]

Verstappen is also due to a costly mistake in a race. Statisticaly is inevitable.

Sounds like the gambler's fallacy.

[Henri Greuter]

I'm confident that the MP4/4 had among the least impressive competition ever.

Oh that's definitely true. If there ever was a case of an F1 among F3000 derivatives, that was the year. Can't brought oup often enough to point out that it was the only car that year that was a clean sheet of paper design for the one year only rules of 1988. E V E R Y other car was a stopgap solution because of the new for 1989 on rules coming up. RB19 is at least up against cars designed according the same rules.

Edited by Henri Greuter, 18 September 2023 - 14:54.

[ConsiderAndGo]

No.

[Taxi]

You flip a (fair) coin 5 times and it lands heads 5 times in a row. What is the probability of it landing heads next time?

 

Still 50%. But the coin very rarely lands 5 times in a row the same way. 

[Collombin]

Still 50%. But the coin very rarely lands 5 times in a row the same way.

Way more often than most people would think. True random runs never look random.

[RacingSmoke]

Its a lot closer than some people suggest and like Max said they need to get everything absolutely right which is not that easy to do consistantly.. RB does not have a magic party mode.

 

I don't think its close at all, Singapore was just a one off. They seem very bullish and don't look panicky about the races that lie ahead. I expect normal service to be resumed in Suzuka. Having said that I have voted they will be beaten again, but on unreliability or chaos. Brazil or Vegas are my top candidates for that.

[messy]

It depends on whether it genuinely was a circuit specific one-off or whether the flexi wings/floors rule has hurt them much more than they’re willing to admit. Suzuka will give a good idea at the answer there and I’m really not sure. It was probably a one off bit there is part of me wondering if it might not be.

[Gravelngrass]

A fiction thread. Nice…

[EvilPhil II]

Unfortunately I cant reply in the original thread. However, I'll continue that thought. They'll would throw Singapore and win the championships in Suzuka and they wont win again in 2023. 

Edited by EvilPhil II, 21 September 2023 - 19:03.

[PayasYouRace]

If you think any F1 team would throw a race you need your head examined.

[Baddoer]

Oh, let me just dust off my krystal ball... Okay, now lets see...

Well. 

Nope.

[AlexPrime]

Yes. Carlos Sainz is on fire. He will win again, I think.

[DeKnyff]

Of course there could be some extremely chaotic race, but I'd bet that they will win all the remaining races.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Still 50%. But the coin very rarely lands 5 times in a row the same way. 

Statistically that is just as likely as any other combination.