The standings after Singapore:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) KWSN-DSM 1503 89 2) LB 1469 99 3) Brawn BGP 001 1466 87 4) scheivlak 1460 83 5) Bleu 1457 89 6) LolaB0860 1436 91 7) GTA 1433 75 8) M2000-5 1429 84 9) DutchQuicksilver 1424 81 10) Anderis 1422 81 11) noikeee 1411 75 12) mark f1 1397 91 13) Makarias 1385 75 14) SpaceHorseParty 1376 75KWSN's streak of perfect scores ends abruptly and the chase is on!
The entries
Entries rescaled for 22 races in the revised results post
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Laws INF,8 200,0 14 Albo 183,8 43,8 13 Norr 130,4 88,7 12 Alon 123,7 84,4 11 Vers 87,2 71,5 1 Pias 86,0 50,7 5 Pere 77,4 67,1 0 Hami 71,4 59,7 0 Stro 70,3 35,7 2 Gasl 64,7 44,3 1 Sain 55,7 45,7 0 Russ 46,0 37,5 0 Ocon 44,4 32,1 1 Lecl 40,0 33,0 0 Hülk 28,3 14,6 0 Zhou 24,0 13,3 0 Tsun 23,3 13,6 0 Bott 14,5 10,3 0 Magn 12,7 6,1 0Liam Lawson becomes the first 100% surprise of the season and the fourth to beat his expectations!
Nobody had guessed him to score any points so it's sort of low hanging fruit, except that he didn't have a seat in F1 at the beginning of the season, which makes picking fruit harder.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2023 this is 14.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Sainz Norris Hamilton Leclerc Verstappen * Potential 302 * Potential 269 * Potential 348 GTA 338 * Potential 521 GTA 277 * Forecast 138 Brawn BGP 001 289 Brawn BGP 001 317 * Forecast 507 M2000-5 258 LB 105 mark f1 277 mark f1 316 LolaB0860 483 mark f1 258 Bleu 98 SpaceHorseParty 273 LB 292 noikeee 448 DutchQuicksilver247 * Current 94 LB 259 scheivlak 292 M2000-5 429 Anderis 241 M2000-5 89 Makarias 259 M2000-5 289 Makarias 417 Bleu 241 LolaB0860 86 * Forecast 254 DutchQuicksilver288 DutchQuicksilver405 Makarias 233 mark f1 86 Bleu 246 * Potential 287 Anderis 404 KWSN-DSM 229 KWSN-DSM 84 scheivlak 242 Anderis 280 KWSN-DSM 396 scheivlak 222 Brawn BGP 001 82 DutchQuicksilver240 Bleu 278 Brawn BGP 001 383 SpaceHorseParty 220 scheivlak 78 LolaB0860 234 SpaceHorseParty 277 SpaceHorseParty 383 LB 215 DutchQuicksilver 71 M2000-5 233 Makarias 272 scheivlak 378 noikeee 202 Anderis 69 noikeee 225 KWSN-DSM 234 GTA 373 * Forecast 186 Makarias 49 Anderis 215 noikeee 230 LB 364 Brawn BGP 001 179 GTA 48 GTA 201 LolaB0860 220 mark f1 363 LolaB0860 172 SpaceHorseParty 38 KWSN-DSM 197 * Forecast 164 * Current 346 * Current 127 noikeee 26 * Current 173 * Current 112 Bleu 328Lando Norris is the first full season driver to beat a KWSN guess.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Gasly Piastri Perez Sargeant Magnussen * Potential 214 * Potential 210 * Potential 381 * Potential 175 * Potential 178 Anderis 87 Bleu 68 Makarias 306 KWSN-DSM 9 SpaceHorseParty 48 GTA 76 LolaB0860 67 noikeee 304 Brawn BGP 001 5 Bleu 33 KWSN-DSM 75 Anderis 57 * Forecast 302 LB 5 LolaB0860 33 DutchQuicksilver 69 Brawn BGP 001 53 M2000-5 282 Anderis 3 DutchQuicksilver 25 Brawn BGP 001 67 * Forecast 51 SpaceHorseParty 277 scheivlak 3 LB 25 LolaB0860 62 KWSN-DSM 47 Anderis 276 Bleu 2 scheivlak 25 noikeee 61 scheivlak 46 DutchQuicksilver273 LolaB0860 2 KWSN-DSM 23 Bleu 59 LB 43 LolaB0860 268 mark f1 2 noikeee 21 mark f1 57 mark f1 38 LB 259 SpaceHorseParty 2 Anderis 19 * Forecast 57 DutchQuicksilver 36 KWSN-DSM 258 DutchQuicksilver 1 Brawn BGP 001 19 LB 56 * Current 35 mark f1 258 M2000-5 1 GTA 19 scheivlak 56 M2000-5 33 scheivlak 256 Makarias 1 Makarias 18 Makarias 52 Makarias 27 GTA 253 noikeee 1 mark f1 12 SpaceHorseParty 43 noikeee 20 Brawn BGP 001 228 GTA 0 M2000-5 11 * Current 39 SpaceHorseParty 18 Bleu 227 * Current 0 * Forecast 4 M2000-5 24 GTA 17 * Current 206 * Forecast 0 * Current 3Instead of adding a very boring Lawson column, I've subbed in Logan Sargeant's numbers as they haven't been displayed here before.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- LolaB0860 1917,1 18,2 noikeee 1905,3 20,6 KWSN-DSM 1882,8 25,9 LB 1848,5 31,0 Makarias 1836,7 23,1 M2000-5 1836,1 17,5 Brawn BGP 001 1831,8 30,7 scheivlak 1830,8 25,9 DutchQuicksilver 1821,0 26,7 Anderis 1819,3 32,5 Bleu 1793,5 28,2 GTA 1786,1 22,4 SpaceHorseParty 1770,1 24,0 mark f1 1751,7 32,4Points shifting from the Red Bulls and Alonso towards Ferrari is good for the forecasts. Is this a three way title battle?
