The standings after Japan:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) KWSN-DSM 1583 80 2) Brawn BGP 001 1545 79 = LB 1545 76 4) scheivlak 1535 75 5) Bleu 1515 58 = LolaB0860 1515 79 7) Anderis 1501 79 = GTA 1501 68 9) M2000-5 1490 61 10) DutchQuicksilver 1489 65 11) noikeee 1479 68 12) mark f1 1456 59 13) Makarias 1449 64 14) SpaceHorseParty 1440 64Scoring is cooling down quite a bit now.
The entries
Entries rescaled for 22 races in the revised results post
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Laws INF,8 200,0 14 Albo 183,8 43,8 13 Norr 155,4 105,7 14 Alon 126,7 86,5 11 Pias 122,8 72,5 10 Vers 93,5 76,7 3 Pere 77,4 67,1 0 Hami 75,6 63,1 0 Stro 70,3 35,7 2 Gasl 66,4 45,5 1 Sain 59,2 48,6 0 Russ 48,7 39,8 0 Ocon 47,1 34,0 1 Lecl 44,3 36,6 0 Hülk 28,3 14,6 0 Zhou 24,0 13,3 0 Tsun 23,3 13,6 0 Bott 14,5 10,3 0 Magn 12,7 6,1 0Lando Norris becomes the first full season 2023 driver to become a 100% surprise!
Oscar Piastri becomes the fifth player to beat his expectations!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2023 this is 14.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Norris Piastri Leclerc Hamilton * Potential 521 * Potential 262 * Potential 200 GTA 338 * Potential 333 * Forecast 510 * Forecast 154 * Forecast 69 Brawn BGP 001 317 Brawn BGP 001 289 LolaB0860 483 * Current 112 Bleu 68 mark f1 316 mark f1 277 noikeee 448 LB 105 LolaB0860 67 LB 292 SpaceHorseParty 273 M2000-5 429 Bleu 98 Anderis 57 scheivlak 292 LB 259 Makarias 417 M2000-5 89 Brawn BGP 001 53 M2000-5 289 Makarias 259 DutchQuicksilver405 LolaB0860 86 * Current 50 DutchQuicksilver288 * Forecast 252 Anderis 404 mark f1 86 KWSN-DSM 47 Anderis 280 Bleu 246 KWSN-DSM 396 KWSN-DSM 84 scheivlak 46 Bleu 278 scheivlak 242 Brawn BGP 001 383 Brawn BGP 001 82 LB 43 SpaceHorseParty 277 DutchQuicksilver240 SpaceHorseParty 383 scheivlak 78 mark f1 38 * Potential 274 LolaB0860 234 scheivlak 378 DutchQuicksilver 71 DutchQuicksilver 36 Makarias 272 M2000-5 233 GTA 373 Anderis 69 M2000-5 33 KWSN-DSM 234 noikeee 225 * Current 371 Makarias 49 Makarias 27 noikeee 230 Anderis 215 LB 364 GTA 48 noikeee 20 LolaB0860 220 GTA 201 mark f1 363 SpaceHorseParty 38 SpaceHorseParty 18 * Forecast 171 KWSN-DSM 197 Bleu 328 noikeee 26 GTA 17 * Current 124 * Current 183Verstappen is about to beat most guesses over the next two races. Nineteen points to go for Piastri to a 100% surprise. 97 points to go for Leclerc to beat a single guess.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz Russell Alonso Ocon Gasly * Potential 285 mark f1 268 * Potential 316 * Potential 186 * Potential 190 GTA 277 SpaceHorseParty 258 * Forecast 228 LolaB0860 105 Anderis 87 M2000-5 258 * Potential 257 GTA 191 GTA 91 GTA 76 mark f1 258 Makarias 247 KWSN-DSM 187 Brawn BGP 001 90 KWSN-DSM 75 DutchQuicksilver247 LolaB0860 230 noikeee 184 Anderis 88 DutchQuicksilver 69 Anderis 241 M2000-5 229 * Current 166 DutchQuicksilver 87 Brawn BGP 001 67 Bleu 241 DutchQuicksilver228 Brawn BGP 001 138 Makarias 81 LolaB0860 62 Makarias 233 Bleu 215 Bleu 134 LB 77 noikeee 61 KWSN-DSM 229 LB 215 LB 129 mark f1 77 Bleu 59 scheivlak 222 Brawn BGP 001 214 scheivlak 129 scheivlak 77 mark f1 57 SpaceHorseParty 220 scheivlak 213 M2000-5 121 noikeee 71 LB 56 LB 215 Anderis 206 DutchQuicksilver117 KWSN-DSM 70 scheivlak 56 noikeee 202 noikeee 199 Anderis 109 Bleu 65 * Forecast 55 * Forecast 186 KWSN-DSM 192 LolaB0860 105 SpaceHorseParty 62 Makarias 52 Brawn BGP 001 179 GTA 163 SpaceHorseParty 105 * Forecast 50 SpaceHorseParty 43 LolaB0860 172 * Forecast 147 Makarias 99 * Current 36 * Current 40 * Current 135 * Current 107 mark f1 86 M2000-5 30 M2000-5 24Alonso can still easily make a 100% surprise, but with the current momentum he can easily miss it too.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- LolaB0860 1932,8 15,7 noikeee 1882,6 -22,6 KWSN-DSM 1880,9 -1,9 LB 1847,6 -0,9 M2000-5 1834,9 -1,2 Brawn BGP 001 1832,0 0,2 scheivlak 1832,0 1,2 Anderis 1825,0 5,7 DutchQuicksilver 1821,0 0,0 Makarias 1817,9 -18,8 Bleu 1806,4 12,9 GTA 1782,4 -3,8 SpaceHorseParty 1768,9 -1,3 mark f1 1750,1 -1,5Piastri makes a few forecasts go up, Perez makes a few go down.
