The standings after USA:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) KWSN-DSM 1707 56 2) LolaB0860 1671 79 3) Brawn BGP 001 1651 56 4) LB 1636 56 5) scheivlak 1633 56 6) Anderis 1632 64 7) noikeee 1628 81 8) Bleu 1624 56 9) M2000-5 1617 73 10) DutchQuicksilver 1608 59 11) GTA 1601 55 12) Makarias 1586 77 13) mark f1 1540 50 14) SpaceHorseParty 1535 48Nice
The entries
Entries rescaled for 22 races in the revised results post
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Laws INF,8 200,0 14 Albo 201,3 47,9 13 Norr 201,2 136,8 14 Pias 167,0 98,6 13 Alon 132,8 90,6 11 Vers 106,1 87,0 11 Pere 82,3 71,3 0 Stro 80,6 40,9 3 Gasl 79,6 54,5 2 Hami 75,6 63,1 0 Sain 65,7 54,0 0 Russ 58,7 48,0 0 Ocon 54,9 39,6 1 Tsun 54,4 31,8 2 Lecl 47,8 39,5 0 Sarg 37,8 10,0 1 Zhou 36,1 20,0 1 Hülk 28,3 14,6 0 Bott 24,2 17,2 0 Magn 12,7 6,1 0Max Verstappen finally gets past his expectation mark! It tends to be a long journey for a title favourite.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2023 this is 14.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Norris Sainz Perez Russell * Potential 521 * Potential 245 GTA 277 * Potential 319 mark f1 268 * Forecast 515 * Forecast 177 M2000-5 258 Makarias 306 SpaceHorseParty 258 LolaB0860 483 * Current 145 mark f1 258 noikeee 304 Makarias 247 noikeee 448 LB 105 * Potential 250 M2000-5 282 LolaB0860 230 M2000-5 429 Bleu 98 DutchQuicksilver247 SpaceHorseParty 277 * Potential 229 * Current 421 M2000-5 89 Anderis 241 Anderis 276 M2000-5 229 Makarias 417 LolaB0860 86 Bleu 241 DutchQuicksilver273 DutchQuicksilver228 DutchQuicksilver405 mark f1 86 Makarias 233 * Forecast 268 Bleu 215 Anderis 404 KWSN-DSM 84 KWSN-DSM 229 LolaB0860 268 LB 215 KWSN-DSM 396 Brawn BGP 001 82 scheivlak 222 LB 259 Brawn BGP 001 214 Brawn BGP 001 383 scheivlak 78 SpaceHorseParty 220 KWSN-DSM 258 scheivlak 213 SpaceHorseParty 383 DutchQuicksilver 71 LB 215 mark f1 258 Anderis 206 scheivlak 378 Anderis 69 noikeee 202 scheivlak 256 noikeee 199 GTA 373 Makarias 49 * Forecast 183 GTA 253 KWSN-DSM 192 LB 364 GTA 48 Brawn BGP 001 179 Brawn BGP 001 228 GTA 163 mark f1 363 SpaceHorseParty 38 LolaB0860 172 Bleu 227 * Forecast 158 Bleu 328 noikeee 26 * Current 150 * Current 219 * Current 129Come on now, Checo! Four straight wins!
Guesses on P6-P10:
Gasly Stroll Tsunoda Albon Sargeant * Potential 148 * Potential 147 * Potential 107 * Potential 123 * Potential 101 Anderis 87 noikeee 114 GTA 21 KWSN-DSM 47 KWSN-DSM 9 GTA 76 M2000-5 87 KWSN-DSM 19 * Forecast 28 Brawn BGP 001 5 KWSN-DSM 75 GTA 86 mark f1 19 * Current 23 LB 5 DutchQuicksilver 69 Bleu 65 Bleu 17 scheivlak 17 Anderis 3 Brawn BGP 001 67 SpaceHorseParty 58 M2000-5 17 SpaceHorseParty 14 scheivlak 3 LolaB0860 62 * Forecast 57 scheivlak 17 Bleu 11 Bleu 2 noikeee 61 LolaB0860 57 Anderis 13 Brawn BGP 001 10 LolaB0860 2 Bleu 59 Brawn BGP 001 55 Makarias 11 LB 10 mark f1 2 * Forecast 59 Anderis 49 DutchQuicksilver 10 LolaB0860 9 SpaceHorseParty 2 mark f1 57 LB 48 LB 10 Makarias 9 DutchQuicksilver 1 LB 56 scheivlak 48 noikeee 9 Anderis 8 M2000-5 1 scheivlak 56 Makarias 47 * Forecast 9 mark f1 8 Makarias 1 Makarias 52 * Current 47 Brawn BGP 001 8 DutchQuicksilver 6 noikeee 1 * Current 48 KWSN-DSM 45 * Current 7 GTA 5 * Current 1 SpaceHorseParty 43 DutchQuicksilver 35 LolaB0860 5 M2000-5 4 * Forecast 1 M2000-5 24 mark f1 22 SpaceHorseParty 4 noikeee 2 GTA 0Stroll scored points! I'm as shocked as you are.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- LolaB0860 1938,6 -8,2 KWSN-DSM 1897,2 11,6 noikeee 1883,7 13,3 LB 1834,1 -5,2 Anderis 1833,8 10,4 scheivlak 1828,1 -5,2 M2000-5 1823,7 1,4 Brawn BGP 001 1822,9 -5,5 DutchQuicksilver 1816,2 -3,0 Bleu 1802,2 1,9 GTA 1799,3 13,8 Makarias 1787,6 -9,6 SpaceHorseParty 1741,7 -9,8 mark f1 1735,8 -3,8Sargeant's first point goes largely unnoticed here.
