The standings after Mexico:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) KWSN-DSM 1759 52 2) LolaB0860 1750 79 3) noikeee 1707 79 4) Brawn BGP 001 1705 54 5) LB 1690 54 6) scheivlak 1687 54 7) Anderis 1686 54 8) Bleu 1678 54 = M2000-5 1678 61 10) DutchQuicksilver 1662 54 11) GTA 1655 54 12) Makarias 1640 54 13) mark f1 1594 54 14) SpaceHorseParty 1589 54The overall leader scored less than anyone else, so that's cool. Ricciardo scoring points helped absolutely nobody.
The entries
Entries rescaled for 22 races in the revised results post
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Laws INF,8 200,0 14 Ricc INF,8 600,0 14 Albo 218,8 52,1 13 Norr 215,1 146,2 14 Pias 176,8 104,3 14 Alon 132,8 90,6 11 Vers 112,4 92,1 12 Hami 83,0 69,3 1 Pere 82,3 71,3 0 Stro 80,6 40,9 3 Gasl 79,6 54,5 2 Sain 71,0 58,3 0 Russ 62,3 50,9 0 Ocon 56,2 40,6 1 Tsun 54,4 31,8 2 Lecl 53,2 44,0 0 Sarg 37,8 10,0 1 Zhou 36,1 20,0 1 Hülk 28,3 14,6 0 Bott 24,2 17,2 0 Magn 12,7 6,1 0Daniel Ricciardo becomes the third and Oscar Piastri the fourth 100% surprise of the season!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2023 this is 14.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen Hamilton Leclerc Sainz Norris * Potential 521 Brawn BGP 001 289 GTA 338 GTA 277 * Potential 230 * Forecast 516 mark f1 277 Brawn BGP 001 317 M2000-5 258 * Forecast 179 LolaB0860 483 * Potential 276 mark f1 316 mark f1 258 * Current 155 noikeee 448 SpaceHorseParty 273 LB 292 DutchQuicksilver247 LB 105 * Current 446 LB 259 scheivlak 292 Anderis 241 Bleu 98 M2000-5 429 Makarias 259 M2000-5 289 Bleu 241 M2000-5 89 Makarias 417 Bleu 246 DutchQuicksilver288 * Potential 237 LolaB0860 86 DutchQuicksilver405 scheivlak 242 Anderis 280 Makarias 233 mark f1 86 Anderis 404 DutchQuicksilver240 Bleu 278 KWSN-DSM 229 KWSN-DSM 84 KWSN-DSM 396 LolaB0860 234 SpaceHorseParty 277 scheivlak 222 Brawn BGP 001 82 Brawn BGP 001 383 * Forecast 233 Makarias 272 SpaceHorseParty 220 scheivlak 78 SpaceHorseParty 383 M2000-5 233 KWSN-DSM 234 LB 215 DutchQuicksilver 71 scheivlak 378 noikeee 225 noikeee 230 noikeee 202 Anderis 69 GTA 373 Anderis 215 * Potential 224 * Forecast 188 Makarias 49 LB 364 GTA 201 LolaB0860 220 Brawn BGP 001 179 GTA 48 mark f1 363 * Current 201 * Forecast 173 LolaB0860 172 SpaceHorseParty 38 Bleu 328 KWSN-DSM 197 * Current 149 * Current 162 noikeee 26Hamilton beats KWSN's guess, so that affects the battle for the lead. Leclerc won't beat a single guess this year, it seems.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Russell de Vries Piastri Albon Ocon mark f1 268 * Potential 75 * Potential 147 * Potential 100 * Potential 118 SpaceHorseParty 258 LB 36 * Forecast 83 KWSN-DSM 47 LolaB0860 105 Makarias 247 scheivlak 36 * Current 72 * Forecast 29 GTA 91 LolaB0860 230 Bleu 31 Bleu 68 * Current 25 Brawn BGP 001 90 M2000-5 229 KWSN-DSM 28 LolaB0860 67 scheivlak 17 Anderis 88 DutchQuicksilver228 Makarias 25 Anderis 57 SpaceHorseParty 14 DutchQuicksilver 87 Bleu 215 M2000-5 22 Brawn BGP 001 53 Bleu 11 Makarias 81 LB 215 mark f1 22 KWSN-DSM 47 Brawn BGP 001 10 LB 77 Brawn BGP 001 214 SpaceHorseParty 18 scheivlak 46 LB 10 mark f1 77 scheivlak 213 noikeee 16 LB 43 LolaB0860 9 scheivlak 77 * Potential 212 DutchQuicksilver 15 mark f1 38 Makarias 9 noikeee 71 Anderis 206 Anderis 13 DutchQuicksilver 36 Anderis 8 KWSN-DSM 70 noikeee 199 LolaB0860 10 M2000-5 33 mark f1 8 Bleu 65 KWSN-DSM 192 Brawn BGP 001 4 Makarias 27 DutchQuicksilver 6 SpaceHorseParty 62 GTA 163 GTA 4 noikeee 20 GTA 5 * Forecast 50 * Forecast 159 * Current 0 SpaceHorseParty 18 M2000-5 4 * Current 43 * Current 137 * Forecast 0 GTA 17 noikeee 2 M2000-5 30No points guessed for Ricciardo, so I've replaced him with de Vries so you can marvel at your inaccuracy there. KWSN will hope for some great Albon results over the last few races.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- LolaB0860 1934,4 -4,2 KWSN-DSM 1900,8 3,6 noikeee 1875,2 -8,5 LB 1847,6 13,5 scheivlak 1844,6 16,5 Brawn BGP 001 1834,8 11,9 M2000-5 1827,5 3,9 Anderis 1826,9 -6,9 DutchQuicksilver 1818,5 2,3 Bleu 1815,5 13,3 GTA 1803,6 4,2 Makarias 1792,9 5,3 mark f1 1749,7 13,9 SpaceHorseParty 1744,4 2,7Hamilton, Leclerc and Sainz doing well makes up for Perez crashing out and points gone to waste on Ricciardo. Still a solid lead for Lola.
