2481 replies to this topic

[garoidb]

I think that if Ferrari have the best car next season and the WDC is a battle between Lewis and Leclerc, I'd put my money on Hamilton. I'd base my bet on my feelings that Leclerc is, of the top drivers, most prone to make mistakes under pressure while Hamilton need pressure and inspiration to shine. But I also remember Valentino Rossi  saying, when he was closing up on 40, something like "now I have to train twice as much, work twice as hard as before, just  to keep up".

 

I'm not sure about Lewis needing pressure to shine. He has had title challenges that went to the wire and ones that didn't, and has won and lost a few of each. He won last race deciders in 2008 and 2014 but lost the ones in 2007, 2010 (outside chance), 2016 and 2021. He won before the last race(s) in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 but didn't have to face the final race jitters in those years. My point, though, is that being under high pressure from a rival hasn't brought out a better, more inspired version of Lewis as is being suggested. If it's close for the title between the two Ferrari drivers, he has more experience and that will benefit him perhaps but he is not remarkably better in those sort of situations.

[KPower]

I think it will be very difficult for Lewis to compete with Leclerc right away. This is not the same Leclerc that faced off against Seb, or even Sainz 3 years ago. 

 

Not only is Leclerc in his prime, he's also one of the most experienced Ferrari drivers ever at this point. He knows all of the tricks and tendencies that come with driving a team's cars/PUs for 6+ years. 

 

If this was 2014 Lewis, I'd have no issue backing him. 2024 Lewis has all the experience and skills, but he's not in his prime, and I think Leclerc is about as quick(especially on one lap) as a prime Lewis right now. 

 

What might help him, is the next Ferrari having some characteristics that might favor his driving style over Charles. Unlikely, but could happen.

Edited by KPower, Yesterday, 16:23.

[PrinceBira]

The most logical take for me is Leclerc to dominate in qualifying. Leclerc winning more races and scoring more points, but Hamilton’s race day skills will occasionally get him ahead (thus costing Leclerc points).

I don’t see any scenario where Hamilton outperforms Leclerc overall. But does he need to? Being close enough to Leclerc can bring him in the title hunt.

And if they are close, can Leclerc handle the intra team pressure (and games?). I’m not so sure he can.

[KPower]

The most logical take for me is Leclerc to dominate in qualifying. Leclerc winning more races and scoring more points, but Hamilton’s race day skills will occasionally get him ahead (thus costing Leclerc points).

I don’t see any scenario where Hamilton outperforms Leclerc overall. But does he need to? Being close enough to Leclerc can bring him in the title hunt.

And if they are close, can Leclerc handle the intra team pressure (and games?). I’m not so sure he can.

 

If he's looking to win a WDC, absolutely. If the goal is to win a WCC, no. 

[Analog]

Pretty much every driver gets accused of being mistake prone or crumbling under pressure because every driver has made mistakes in the past and you don't remember the 19 races they drove without major issues but you'll remember that 1 when they crashed.

 

I think the differences between how many mistakes each driver tends to make are nowadays pretty small between all the top drivers.

Yes, that is true, but he had some memorable stuff, like this:





Plus:
https://www.youtube....rts/cMj5G_6taik


But anyone can place their bets as they choose
 

Edited by Analog, Yesterday, 16:32.

[PrinceBira]

If he's looking to win a WDC, absolutely. If the goal is to win a WCC, no.

Would Hamilton be interested in a WCC? I doubt it.

[RekF1]

with driving a team's cars/PUs for 6+ years. 
 

 
What might help him, is the next Ferrari having some characteristics that might favor his driving style over Charles. Unlikely, but could happen.

So if he does get the better of Chuck, it'll be down to future luck... 7 WDC's and the only way he beats Charles is by luck.

[Timothy]

Lewis is not beating Leclerc in their two years together, all wishful thinking. Even Sainz would be a tall ask for him.

Edited by Timothy, Yesterday, 18:16.

[garoidb]

The most logical take for me is Leclerc to dominate in qualifying. Leclerc winning more races and scoring more points, but Hamilton’s race day skills will occasionally get him ahead (thus costing Leclerc points).

I don’t see any scenario where Hamilton outperforms Leclerc overall. But does he need to? Being close enough to Leclerc can bring him in the title hunt.

And if they are close, can Leclerc handle the intra team pressure (and games?). I’m not so sure he can.

 

He could use the approach taken by his friend Niki back in 1984, and just make sure to stay in the hunt by hook or by crook. In other words, finish races and keep persevering. His level of experience could help with this, as it did with Niki. In fact, his experiences of losing could be more beneficial to him than his experience of winning.   

[garoidb]

Would Hamilton be interested in a WCC? I doubt it.

 

I suspect not, unless it is in addition to a WDC for him. I still hold out a chance for Ferrari to win it this year, actually. If that happens and they make a big deal of it, then everyone would be conscious of not letting it slip away next time. I think it would be a nice career achievement for Carlos to be part of winning it this year, but Lewis would not get as much satisfaction from winning it next year.

[vlado]

Hamilton's overall contribution to Ferrari's team for 1 year alone will exceed everything Sainz has managed to do during his whole stay. 

[vlado]

Lewis is not beating Leclerc in their two years together, all wishful thinking. Even Sainz would be a tall ask for him.

 

He still might outscore RUS this season and he is slightly better than SAI 

[MikeTekRacing]

Hamilton's overall contribution to Ferrari's team for 1 year alone will exceed everything Sainz has managed to do during his whole stay. 

based on....?

I'd say we wait to see it. Sainz has been uncomfortably close to Leclerc quite often.

There is a lot of optimism I can't see what it is based on. This year Lewis is behind George. In Mercedes, a team he is part of for so many years.
Going into Ferrari, against Leclerc will be hard. NIce to watch, but hard. Him being as close to Charles as Carlos is will be a very hard goal for him. 

[baddog]

Why does everyone forget that he was best of the rest behind Red Bull last year?

 

Memories are short. People have seen him all over the place this year and that's the focus.

 

On the flipside it is easy to forget that last year the other two big teams this year were not competitive for most of the year, behind AM at the start and only coming on strong at the end. Merc were expected to be, and on balance were, the second best team still.

[P123]

Memories are short. People have seen him all over the place this year and that's the focus.

 

On the flipside it is easy to forget that last year the other two big teams this year were not competitive for most of the year, behind AM at the start and only coming on strong at the end. Merc were expected to be, and on balance were, the second best team still.

 

Second best last year?  I'd say Ferrari shaded that from Merc, especially by the metric of poles, wins, podiums, laps led.... all weighted in favour of the Ferrari.  Even McLaren and Aston shone more often at the sharp end, even if not quite there with Merc over the balance of the season.  

 

This season has been a strange one.  Flying in the wet earlier in the season to apparently forgetting how to drive in Brazil.  Lewis's one lap struggles are well documented, but I'm not yet sure whether it is driver or team that have lost interest in the last few races.  

[WKAYE]

Hamilton's overall contribution to Ferrari's team for 1 year alone will exceed everything Sainz has managed to do during his whole stay. 

What a load of utter BS !     Take off your blinders.

[lewislorenzo]

I'm not sure about Lewis needing pressure to shine. He has had title challenges that went to the wire and ones that didn't, and has won and lost a few of each. He won last race deciders in 2008 and 2014 but lost the ones in 2007, 2010 (outside chance), 2016 and 2021. He won before the last race(s) in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 but didn't have to face the final race jitters in those years. My point, though, is that being under high pressure from a rival hasn't brought out a better, more inspired version of Lewis as is being suggested. If it's close for the title between the two Ferrari drivers, he has more experience and that will benefit him perhaps but he is not remarkably better in those sort of situations.

2021 was a lot of pressure with having to win the last 4 races and we all know Lewis should have won the WDC that year…

based on....?
I'd say we wait to see it. Sainz has been uncomfortably close to Leclerc quite often.
There is a lot of optimism I can't see what it is based on. This year Lewis is behind George. In Mercedes, a team he is part of for so many years.
Going into Ferrari, against Leclerc will be hard. NIce to watch, but hard. Him being as close to Charles as Carlos is will be a very hard goal for him.

You really are underrating Lewis as per usual

Edited by lewislorenzo, Yesterday, 21:35.

[MikeTekRacing]

You really are underrating Lewis as per usual

I have repeatedly praised his career. 

I am not drinking the kool aid that he'll just rock the world in Ferrari.

There is a high chance he won't be better than at Mercedes and a significant one he'll struggle against Charles

[P123]

I have repeatedly praised his career. 

I am not drinking the kool aid that he'll just rock the world in Ferrari.

There is a high chance he won't be better than at Mercedes and a significant one he'll struggle against Charles

 

I think due to Lewis's relative struggles this season most expect Charles to get the better of him, based on a combination of age, speed and experience with the team.

[Lennat]

I think that if Ferrari have the best car next season and the WDC is a battle between Lewis and Leclerc, I'd put my money on Hamilton. I'd base my bet on my feelings that Leclerc is, of the top drivers, most prone to make mistakes under pressure while Hamilton need pressure and inspiration to shine. But I also remember Valentino Rossi saying, when he was closing up on 40, something like "now I have to train twice as much, work twice as hard as before, just to keep up".

Rossi DIDN'T really keep up, as his last win was at 38, on a bike others kept winning on. Or, I guess he remained a sort of decent MotoGP rider at least almost until the end at 42, but far from a top one. Sort of like later years Kimi I guess.

Edited by Lennat, Yesterday, 22:49.

[Analog]

I have repeatedly praised his career. 

I am not drinking the kool aid that he'll just rock the world in Ferrari.

There is a high chance he won't be better than at Mercedes and a significant one he'll struggle against Charles

Do we know for certain that Leclerc is better than Russel?

[Analog]

Rossi DIDN'T really keep up, as his last win was at 38, on a bike others kept winning on. Or, I guess he remained a sort of decent MotoGP rider at least almost until the end at 42, but far from a top one. Sort of like later years Kimi I guess.

Well, I said "closing up on 40," don't know exactly when that quote is from. At the tender age of 39 he did beat his team mate Vinales in the Championship. "Keeping up" is also a relative term and I think that if Marc Marquez had not showed up, Rossi would have appeared to "keep up" better than what he did. Marc Marquez brought MotoGP to a new level.

[vlado]

Rossi DIDN'T really keep up, as his last win was at 38, on a bike others kept winning on. Or, I guess he remained a sort of decent MotoGP rider at least almost until the end at 42, but far from a top one. Sort of like later years Kimi I guess.

 

I'd argue that age has a bigger impact on MotoGP riders than it does on F1 drivers in general 

[Chick0]

Hamilton's overall contribution to Ferrari's team for 1 year alone will exceed everything Sainz has managed to do during his whole stay. 

 

 

Nope,  i don't agree.   The real only contribution he will make to Ferrari is exposer. 

[Analog]

I'd argue that age has a bigger impact on MotoGP riders than it does on F1 drivers in general 

Probably. Of the last seasons riders only 4 was over 30. Oldest was Aleix Espargaro, doing his last season at 35. Still, the equation handling the relationship between age, skill and motivation is a complicated one.

[baddog]

Second best last year?  I'd say Ferrari shaded that from Merc, especially by the metric of poles, wins, podiums, laps led.... all weighted in favour of the Ferrari.  Even McLaren and Aston shone more often at the sharp end, even if not quite there with Merc over the balance of the season.  

 

This season has been a strange one.  Flying in the wet earlier in the season to apparently forgetting how to drive in Brazil.  Lewis's one lap struggles are well documented, but I'm not yet sure whether it is driver or team that have lost interest in the last few races.  

 

Certainly close with Ferrari yes. AM and Mac had ups but over the season I think not in the same league.

[Frankbullitt]

Lewis is not beating Leclerc in their two years together, all wishful thinking. Even Sainz would be a tall ask for him.

This.

Do people think Russell is better than Charles? Hell no.

So how the hell do people think Hamilton will beat one of the top 3 drivers on the grid right now, and probably the fastest over a lap.

As others have said, if this was Hamilton of 2014-2016, I’d have him winning and beating Charles. But not this version of Hamilton. All drivers have a shelf life, it’s just how it is.

[Frankbullitt]

Do we know for certain that Leclerc is better than Russel?

Yes, yes we do.

[gillesfan76]

I'm not sure about Lewis needing pressure to shine. He has had title challenges that went to the wire and ones that didn't, and has won and lost a few of each. He won last race deciders in 2008 and 2014 but lost the ones in 2007, 2010 (outside chance), 2016 and 2021. He won before the last race(s) in 2015, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 but didn't have to face the final race jitters in those years. My point, though, is that being under high pressure from a rival hasn't brought out a better, more inspired version of Lewis as is being suggested. If it's close for the title between the two Ferrari drivers, he has more experience and that will benefit him perhaps but he is not remarkably better in those sort of situations.

 

Lost race decider in 2021? Well, technically yes but does it add to your point? We both know it doesn’t, because he didn’t lose that race performance wise.

 

He also didn’t lose the last race in 2016. He won it.

 

2010 he was 4th in the championship, hardly a last race decider.

 

2007 was a legitimate loss in a last race decider.

 

2008, 2014 and 2021 were legitimate wins in a last race decider. In both 2014 and 2021 he started from P2 on the grid and got an incredible reaction time and start from the dirty side of the grid in Abu Dhabi, while both times his respective title contenders got poor starts from P1 and the grippy side of the track in Abu Dhabi - final race jitters on their part? I think so.

 

I think he’s one of those drivers that generally performs better under pressure and pulls out another gear. Not always, and there have been mistakes. But 18 years is a large enough sample size to see races where he’s been under pressure and while certainly not flawless, more often than not he flourishes rather than flounders under pressure.

Edited by gillesfan76, Today, 07:49.

[gillesfan76]

This.

Do people think Russell is better than Charles? Hell no.

So how the hell do people think Hamilton will beat one of the top 3 drivers on the grid right now, and probably the fastest over a lap.

As others have said, if this was Hamilton of 2014-2016, I’d have him winning and beating Charles. But not this version of Hamilton. All drivers have a shelf life, it’s just how it is.

 

I don’t know where this narrative comes from where some people seem to think it obvious that Charles is better than Russell. It really isn’t obvious one way or the other. Far from it.

 

There is zero actual evidence to support it one way or the other. They haven’t been team mates, and they haven’t shared team mates. Anything is possible, Leclerc could be better than Russell by a little or a lot, or Russell could be better than Leclerc by a little or a lot, or they could be similar. So many possibilities, but zero evidence indicating one way or the other let alone horsesh*t quotes such as “Hell no” lol.

[EndlessMotion]

I still think some are underestimating the car and setup Lewis has been given this year. You get slower as you age of course but you don't just lose the ability to keep a car on track or drive it comfortably. Certainly some of it is his driving style combined with these cars which generally just don't gel which is unfortunate but also just the way it goes.

 

If we see a similar story at Ferrari next year then of course there's nowhere to hide and the conclusion will have to be that he's not only past it but completely lost the ability to drive a racing car properly. I personally think that once he settles into a new team and culture with Ferrari he'll return to consistent performances again. If he has a car underneath him, particularly on race day, he's still one of the best out there.

[gillesfan76]

The sensitivity of these cars combined with the long-known fickle Pirelli tyres gives such a narrow window of setup that it’s too difficult to make any sort of accurate conclusions. As PYAR correctly pointed out, Hamilton largely dominated Russell last season just a year ago. Ok it was 11-11 in qualifying, but quite a significant difference in race and points by the end of the season and not much attributable to luck or reliability. This season they’ve been much closer overall, with Russell definitely suffering some bad luck, and definitely being consistently quicker in qualifying.

 

Has Lewis suddenly got that much worse in one season? Has Russell suddenly got that much better in one season? Is it a combination of both? Or is it just the differences between how the 2023 vs 2024 cars are generally behaving that explains it?