32 replies to this topic

[Carsey]

Hopefully can get a little discussion on how the teams done and how things might be looking forwards.
 
They've lost a LOT of great talent over the years and it would appear that none of it hasnt really been replaced with high profile signings,  I did manage to collect a few signings that we seen released in the media over the last few years

 

 

Inbound:

Emanuele Guidotti* Technical Lead for Ferrari (Engine) -> Mercedes HPP as Principal Engineer  (July 2023)

Adil El Ouazizi Aerodynamics Team Leader at Red Bull -> Mercedes as Principal Aerodynamicis (Aug 2023)

Chris Ray aerodynamicist Williams -> Mercedes aerodynamicist (Sept 2023)

 

Outbound:

Andy Cowell  (June 2020)

Gianluca Romani -> Ferrari   (April 2022)

Phil Prew -> Red Bull  (July 2022)

LH Lead mechanic Nathan Divey  ->  Ferrari  (Nov 2022)

James Vowles Director of Strategy -> Williams Team Principle (Jan 2023)

Richard Frith Head of VP Mercedes FE -> Alpine (March 2023)

Slawomir Madaj Senior Structural Calculations Engineer Mercedes -> Alfa Romeo (March 2023)

Owen Jones Chief Engineer Mercedes HPP -> Performance Director Red Bull Powertrains (March 2023)

Loïc Serra Mercedes’ Head of Vehicle Performance -> Ferrari as of 2025

 

Not to mention the lack of a competitive car with the W13 and W14 so it will be interesting to see how the W15 proves and whether it can be on par with the McLaren, Ferrari and bite at the heels of the Red Bulls.

 

It now falls on this time for Toto to stand up and do what Horner has done and build a team back up to the top and get a winning formula back together.  Does he have what it takes to keep hold of more key staff, find a new driver who is going to be up there in 2025?

Now Lewis has left and potentially other engineers too, I think its going to have to be a BIG recruitment drive again for Mercedes to get on the front foot.

 

Going to be a interesting 2024 thats for sure seeing development and how things play out.

[mclarensmps]

Also, Ineos group now has a new toy that they're going to be focused on, so they might want to pack their bags with Mercedes as well. 

[vlado]

Also, Ineos group now has a new toy that they're going to be focused on, so they might want to pack their bags with Mercedes as well. 

 

What new toy?

[Cliff]

What new toy?

Manchester United

[Beri]

What new toy?

 

Not so much Ineos, but Ratcliffe is investor of Man United nowadays.

[ARTGP]

Also, Ineos group now has a new toy that they're going to be focused on, so they might want to pack their bags with Mercedes as well. 

 

The team generated a profit of 89.7 million pounds in 2022. 

 

The Mercedes [...] released their financial accounts for the year ending 31st December 2022, reporting profits of UK£89.74 million (US$110.1 million)

 

https://www.blackboo...red-bull-2022/#

 

Even a backmarker team can turn a profit now if they load up with sponsorship. There's no reason for Mercedes or Ineos to leave even if they hover around 2nd-4th best in perpetuity. 

Edited by ARTGP, 04 February 2024 - 19:27.

[Coral]

I don't think it is necessarily "the end" for Mercedes, but I do think it could be a while until they are competitive again. I think the same will happen to Red Bull when Newey retires.

 

I would love F1 to go back to the days when the Championships were contested between McLaren and Ferrari. And it would be great if Aston Martin were thrown into the mix. Whatever happens, I would like less domination and more competition.

[pacificquay]

Just a natural cycle

[Deeq]

Jeez, Heros to Zeros in a nanosecond..🙃
Mercedes dominans ended, bfd..Its by no means the end of the team as a top team, let alone its demise. Get a grip man 🙄

Edited by Deeq, 04 February 2024 - 22:58.

[Clatter]

The team generated a profit of 89.7 million pounds in 2022. 

 

https://www.blackboo...red-bull-2022/#

 

Even a backmarker team can turn a profit now if they load up with sponsorship. There's no reason for Mercedes or Ineos to leave even if they hover around 2nd-4th best in perpetuity. 

 

Does the PU division turn a profit?

[ARTGP]

Does the PU division turn a profit?

Toto Wolff gave the impression that PU divisions are just treading water now but this will become more favorable due to the budget cap being introduced for the PUs

Edited by ARTGP, 04 February 2024 - 23:45.

[YamahaV10]

Lewis sure did a good job of trashing a the race winning W13. And that win was more on merit than the single Ferrari win in 2023. And then the w14 went on to get 2nd in the constructors.

Edited by YamahaV10, 05 February 2024 - 00:48.

[Alfisti]

The brain drain is far more of a loss than a fantastic 40 yr old driver. It's very hard to keep pace when that many egg heads leave. 

[dia6olo]

Lewis sure did a good job of trashing a the race winning W13. And that win was more on merit than the single Ferrari win in 2023. And then the w14 went on to get 2nd in the constructors.

While they went on to get second in the constructors in 2023 they were also well beaten by both Ferrari and McLaren over the second half of the season, they basically finished the season 4th best and not by small margins.

[baddog]

If they have a great year and George (and or the new hire) step up it could be a new phase for them. Or it could be a slide. We just absolutely do not have the information to predict this.

[Alfisti]

If they have a great year and George (and or the new hire) step up it could be a new phase for them. Or it could be a slide. We just absolutely do not have the information to predict this.

It'd be the miracle of all miracles. I k ow they finished 2nd but they are tearing up their old concept and starting from scratch, they are essentially the best part of 2 years behind red bull, thats a huge, huge ask.

[alframsey]

Imo they're going to be better thus year than the previous two seasn but I doubt any titles until the new regs come in. I do think losing Lewis is a blow (as it is for any team) but not as huge a blow as it might seem - George is very capable if not top tier imo

[baddog]

It'd be the miracle of all miracles. I k ow they finished 2nd but they are tearing up their old concept and starting from scratch, they are essentially the best part of 2 years behind red bull, thats a huge, huge ask.

 

I think you are probably right, at least for this year. But stranger things have happened.

[chrcol]

I swear I posted in another thread with this same exact question 2 days ago, but maybe this question was asked in the main Lewis to Merc thread, I think Merc are not recovering with Toto at the helm, my opinion is Brawn built the base for the success, Lauda may also have played a part with some sound advice.

[SenorSjon]

Jeez, Heros to Zeros in a nanosecond..
Mercedes dominans ended, bfd..Its by no means the end of the team as a top team, let alone its demise. Get a grip man

 

Well, one win after SA2021 is getting a bit bleak isn't it? We've seen this happen before.

[Frankbullitt]

Every team will eventually suffer a "downfall" of sorts. Mercdes had a huge run of success built up after years and millions and millions of investment for the 2014 reg changes. I see it as a natural decline of sorts, it happened to McLaren, Williams, Ferrari and Red Bull, it was naturally going to happen to Mercedes.

 

I think they will always be knocking, there or thereabouts, but the dominance is gone.

[SparkPlug86]

Yeah, they'll always be a threat I think, but competing for championships is probably behind them for a few years whilst they rebuild. I also don't think Toto is the man to rebuild a team, he hasn't had that experience before. But every team has this cycle... McLaren are finally getting back on terms after nearly 20 years! Williams... took them 5 years to get off the bottom of the standings. Fair play to Ferrari who have always been in the top 3 for the last 30 years or so... 

 

Now Hamilton is moving on, I don't really mind what happens with the works team - I don't have an emotional attachment to that team, same for Aston Martin.

[JHSingo]

Fair play to Ferrari who have always been in the top 3 for the last 30 years or so... 

 

Not sure that's accurate. They definitely weren't in 2020. Or 2014. 

 

However, it does seem like Ferrari tends to recover back to competitiveness faster than some of their rivals, definitely. 

[Risil]

I guess Ferrari has very good access to finance and a solid engine shop. That means the tools for recovery are in their own hands, and when they're uncompetitive they have control over the areas they need to improve.

 

(Compare that to Williams after 2005 and McLaren after 2014)

[le chat noir]

2026 sees Ford provide PUs for RBR.

Mercedes have been most successful recently in having the best PU at the start of a new regulation. With Honda having the best at the end. Ferrari middling and Renault nowhere.

 

Could be one-horse Ferrari, vs one-horse Aston Martin, vs two-horse Mercedes. McLaren close behind but with customer engine the chassis won't be as optimised as it should be at Mercedes.

 

If Max jumps ship to Mercedes, and some technical team come with him, it's all to play for.

If not, it's hard to see the brain gain happening to support the chassis side.

 

So Aston vs Ferrari. I do hope Alonso and Hamilton keep up and have another battle.

 

Otherwise, Russell would look good in green. Ready for Bond 26 of course.

[SparkPlug86]

Not sure that's accurate. They definitely weren't in 2020. Or 2014. 

 

However, it does seem like Ferrari tends to recover back to competitiveness faster than some of their rivals, definitely. 

 

Well... everyone has a off day I suppose 

 

 

2026 sees Ford provide PUs for RBR.

Mercedes have been most successful recently in having the best PU at the start of a new regulation. With Honda having the best at the end. Ferrari middling and Renault nowhere.

 

Could be one-horse Ferrari, vs one-horse Aston Martin, vs two-horse Mercedes. McLaren close behind but with customer engine the chassis won't be as optimised as it should be at Mercedes.

 

If Max jumps ship to Mercedes, and some technical team come with him, it's all to play for.

If not, it's hard to see the brain gain happening to support the chassis side.

 

So Aston vs Ferrari. I do hope Alonso and Hamilton keep up and have another battle.

 

Otherwise, Russell would look good in green. Ready for Bond 26 of course.

 

2026 will be interesting for PU side of things. But I don't think Mercedes will drop the ball there, they have always made some of the best engines and they've had the advantage of continuity within the sport. I'd assume Honda will build something decent this time, same for Reanult. Ferrari will be like Mercedes, they'll have a decent PU in the back. RBR-Ford, unknown... I don't think anyone will have a bad engine that will have a dramatic effect and there will no doubt be "balance" created to bring the PUs together.

 

Equally, "customer" teams don't really have that much disadvantage anymore - McLaren outperforming Mercedes at the end of the year proves it's not the key element in the current regulations - 2026 may prove different but McLaren are involved in some of the Mercedes HPP development just like Williams and Aston Martin are. 

[JimmyClark]

Now Hamilton is moving on, I don't really mind what happens with the works team - I don't have an emotional attachment to that team, same for Aston Martin.

I do wonder if this is going to be a problem for Mercedes, as let's face it they aren't exactly a team people embrace - most of their "fans" were actually Hamilton fans and will likely jump ship.

Despite their Motorsport heritage, they don't have the ingrained F1 fanbase of McLaren or Williams, for example.

Hence why I think they will go for someone like Alonso as a replacement for a couple of years whilst Antonelli beds in elsewhere, as he will keep the commercial side going.

[dia6olo]

Their current form or start of the end or whatever one wants to call it has to be a combination of things.

 

1 The brain drain

2 The budget cap

 

Are the main two, I would also add to that, that they went into their wining cycle with a significant PU advantage over their rivals which has now gone.

I also feel that, that PU advantage played a part in distorting reality with both viewers and Mercedes themselves. I feel they always thought themselves far better than what they really were...

[Huffer]

I also feel that, that PU advantage played a part in distorting reality with both viewers and Mercedes themselves. I feel they always thought themselves far better than what they really were...

 

I strongly disagree with that. I think the chassis and aero was a lot stronger than people given them credit for, and when Ferrari had the PU advantage in 2017-2018, it was the chassis and aero that kept them in the fight. 

 

As for the budget cap...that's another fantasy that people keep spinning. That somehow Mercedes has been hurt more than any other team by the budget cap, and that's why they've fallen behind. That's not the case at all, especially since ALL of the top teams were spending similar amounts of money before the cap. It's not as if Mercedes had some huge monetary advantage over everybody else which is what brought them success. They simply went down the wrong development path.

 

The only effect that the budge cap has had is that it makes it impossible to take another direction during the season and that it's a bigger risk designing from scratch the following season. 

Case in point; look how Mercedes not only stayed in the fight in 2021, but managed to win the Constructors title after the car was hobbled by the reg changes. It took them a while to sort it out, but they managed to get it done ( more or less) and would have won both titles if not for Massi breaking the rules. 

[dia6olo]

I strongly disagree with that. I think the chassis and aero was a lot stronger than people given them credit for, and when Ferrari had the PU advantage in 2017-2018, it was the chassis and aero that kept them in the fight. 

 

As for the budget cap...that's another fantasy that people keep spinning. That somehow Mercedes has been hurt more than any other team by the budget cap, and that's why they've fallen behind. That's not the case at all, especially since ALL of the top teams were spending similar amounts of money before the cap. It's not as if Mercedes had some huge monetary advantage over everybody else which is what brought them success. They simply went down the wrong development path.

 

The only effect that the budge cap has had is that it makes it impossible to take another direction during the season and that it's a bigger risk designing from scratch the following season. 

Case in point; look how Mercedes not only stayed in the fight in 2021, but managed to win the Constructors title after the car was hobbled by the reg changes. It took them a while to sort it out, but they managed to get it done ( more or less) and would have won both titles if not for Massi breaking the rules. 

I think their 2022 car speaks volumes regarding Mercedes F1 know how and their 2023 car confirmed it.

They are not as clever as they like to think they are and a lot of their actually pretty much all of their recent success was down to a PU advantage not their cars.

[RedRabbit]

Using 2021 as argument for a strong Mercedes chassis keeping them in the title hunt is clearly overlooking the pile of engines Bottas went through testing performance upgrades that could be squeezed through as reliability. And the short life special engines late season, the focus on top speed over anything else.

Anyway, the list above also excludes Aldo Costa on the outgoing, and recently Mike Elliot. And another big name senior that I forget who ended up alongside Dan Fallows at Aston Martin.

[RedRabbit]

And the budget cap has definitely affected them. Not because they were spending more, but even Toto admitted they spending without even knowing the costs of some items.

So it's adapting to working within the budget cap that has taken them a while, because it meant an entirely different work ethic and procedure for ALL the engineers.

They were operating very much how giant corporations and governments do, who have so much money it doesn't concern them about waste.

A specific example iirc, is Toto admitting the engineers didn't know how much it cost to create a wheel nut, because they just ordered the work to be carried out, and another department dealt with the finance of it. That's quite normal in engineering departments for big companies.

[Huffer]

I think their 2022 car speaks volumes regarding Mercedes F1 know how and their 2023 car confirmed it.

They are not as clever as they like to think they are and a lot of their actually pretty much all of their recent success was down to a PU advantage not their cars.

 

Of course, that assertion only really works if you ignore the seasons they were successful with a weaker or comparable PU. 

 

All 2022 shows is that they went down the wrong development path, and then in 2023 opted to continue with it because it seemed like the better, more cost effective solution. If you're going to say that the previous seasons were down to cash and PU, then use examples for those seasons. As it is, I think your comparing apples to oranges by trying to use 2022 + 2023 as examples where far too many things had changed to be able to make any sort of sane argument.