Here is my very rough analysis:
Race sims
(Please don't ask me why the stint avg and the total avg don't seem to line up, I have checked and double checked)
The reason most sims total 52 rather than 57 is because I haven't included lap 1, in laps, and out laps.
I had to guesstimate Leclerc and Piastri because they didn't get to finish their final (quickest) stint.
- Ferrari are quick
- Piastri really didn't have a good race sim, albeit he's not the lead driver and Bahrain is a weak McLaren track
- Albon was looking great until the final stint, but even so it was a strong run considering time of day
- Encouraging for Haas but probably flattered by track conditions / time of day
- Solid from Bottas and potentially a slower day 2 track
- Ricciardo unrepresentative time of day but clearly quicker than Magnussen
Interesting long runs
- Verstappen is reported to be carrying 85kg for his 15 lap runs, so adjusting to full tanks is 0.3/0.4s, same conditions as Leclerc, first stint avg 1:37.6
- Aston's aren't setting the world on fire but good consistency and deg. Hard to read but I think ahead of McLaren next weekend.
Red Bull
Ferrari +0.3
Mercedes ?
Aston Martin +0.6
McLaren +0.9
RB +1.0
Alpine ?
Williams +1.2
Sauber +1.3
Haas +1.5
Excellent job. I've also made some analysis, based on single lap performance & race simulations. I've made some guestimations, where I've tried to compensate for time of the day, guess the difference between pure pace & race trim, based on degradation on longer stints for teams that haven't made their sims (Mercedes & Alpine). When I was lacking data for some drivers, I've made assumptions based on average performace difference between teammates last season. I know that probably noone cares, but here's how I see this:
Note: Logan's lap maybe weren't 100% or bad time of the day. If he'd keep the distance he kept to Albon last season, he'd be 17th fastest.
To be honest, I don't really know what F1.com debrief is based on. I can't see any significant advantage that Red Bull has. Sure, they're still fastest but were they sandbagging? (I've adjusted Max's time to that of Perez and average difference between them in 2023. Otherwise, Ferrari did best times on C3 this week.)
I can't see anything special in VCARB. They look to be quite fast on single lap but their longer runs were anything but spectacular.
I think that Hulkenberg's run was really impressive (as well as Bottas on day 2!). I also have to admit that I've flattered Mercedes a bit here.
Personally, I'm a bit disappointed with McLaren, but they've admitted that track is not to their liking. Also, they've developed all the way to the end of last season, so might've spent less resources on 2024 car.
What do you guys think about it?
Credits go to @f1debrief on X, whose data I've used.