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Place The Points Competition 2024 after China


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#1 Makarias

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 17:00

The standings after China:

Pos Name                  Tot Latest
1)  Anderis               499 101
=   Benchulo              499 101
=   Bleu                  499 101
=   Brawn BGP 001         499 101
=   Costaz                499 101
=   DutchQuicksilver      499 101
=   GTA                   499 101
=   KWSN-DSM              499 101
=   LB                    499 101
=   mark f1               499 101
=   scheivlak             499 101
=   sladealonso           499 101
=   SpaceHorseParty       499 101
14) ANF                   498 100
=   Makarias              498 100
16) LolaB8060             496 100
17) M2000-5               495 100
18) polesetter1           488 100
There are now five of us who have already underestimated Hülkenberg this season. Join us!

The entries

The Drivers' list
Driver Expect  Surprise Beat
           %        %     #
Bear    INF,8    600,0   18  
Hülk     63,7     25,0    5
Pere     32,9     25,6    0
Sain     29,5     20,4    0
Norr     26,5     18,2    0
Lecl     25,3     20,2    0
Magn     24,7      5,0    2
Pias     22,4     14,5    0
Alon     21,0     12,7    0
Vers     20,5     16,6    0
Tsun     17,3      9,7    0
Russ     16,7     12,0    0
Stro     16,5      7,1    1
Hami      5,7      4,8    0

EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.

Guesses on P1-P5:
Verstappen             Norris                 Perez                  Leclerc                Sainz               
M2000-5         600    * Potential     530    * Potential     554    * Potential     544    * Potential     540
LolaB8060       590    Costaz          301    * Forecast      379    Benchulo        341    polesetter1     318
* Potential     575    * Forecast      264    LolaB8060       307    * Forecast      331    * Forecast      312
SpaceHorseParty 550    Brawn BGP 001   263    Costaz          300    Bleu            331    Bleu            265
Makarias        535    ANF             241    DutchQuicksilver280    GTA             315    GTA             260
Anderis         525    LB              220    mark f1         280    ANF             292    Anderis         231
DutchQuicksilver525    Makarias        211    KWSN-DSM        275    sladealonso     290    Benchulo        229
GTA             510    LolaB8060       210    sladealonso     275    scheivlak       289    scheivlak       228
LB              506    Benchulo        209    M2000-5         273    Brawn BGP 001   283    sladealonso     225
sladealonso     502    GTA             205    Anderis         265    LB              279    mark f1         220
mark f1         494    DutchQuicksilver201    Makarias        265    Anderis         274    LB              218
* Forecast      480    scheivlak       200    Brawn BGP 001   254    mark f1         270    Brawn BGP 001   215
scheivlak       466    Bleu            195    SpaceHorseParty 250    Costaz          265    LolaB8060       215
ANF             458    polesetter1     191    scheivlak       245    KWSN-DSM        250    Makarias        212
Costaz          454    mark f1         190    LB              235    DutchQuicksilver246    DutchQuicksilver207
KWSN-DSM        450    SpaceHorseParty 190    Bleu            218    Makarias        246    M2000-5         201
Brawn BGP 001   449    M2000-5         188    GTA             212    polesetter1     245    KWSN-DSM        200
polesetter1     427    KWSN-DSM        185    polesetter1     200    SpaceHorseParty 243    Costaz          191
Bleu            415    Anderis         180    ANF             102    M2000-5         232    SpaceHorseParty 190
Benchulo        336    sladealonso     160    Benchulo         86    LolaB8060       225    ANF             135
* Current       100    * Current        55    * Current        79    * Current        69    * Current        65
Two Perez guesses look quite terrible.

Guesses on P6-P10:
Russell                Alonso                 Piastri                Hamilton               Hülkenberg          
* Potential     507    * Potential     505    * Potential     511    * Potential     487    * Potential     479
polesetter1     265    Benchulo        236    Costaz          248    polesetter1     247    * Forecast       19
ANF             244    Makarias        185    ANF             239    ANF             243    KWSN-DSM         15
Anderis         213    Anderis         175    Brawn BGP 001   185    SpaceHorseParty 240    Benchulo         13
Bleu            207    Bleu            170    LB              174    mark f1         230    Brawn BGP 001    11
mark f1         200    sladealonso     170    scheivlak       174    M2000-5         222    Anderis          10
sladealonso     200    DutchQuicksilver156    * Forecast      173    Costaz          221    Bleu             10
KWSN-DSM        190    Brawn BGP 001   153    Benchulo        172    Bleu            215    LB                8
SpaceHorseParty 190    KWSN-DSM        150    LolaB8060       170    sladealonso     215    scheivlak         8
Benchulo        183    SpaceHorseParty 150    polesetter1     163    Anderis         213    sladealonso       6
DutchQuicksilver183    * Forecast      144    SpaceHorseParty 160    DutchQuicksilver212    DutchQuicksilver  5
LB              182    LB              142    KWSN-DSM        150    Makarias        210    GTA               5
scheivlak       182    scheivlak       142    mark f1         150    GTA             207    mark f1           5
M2000-5         180    GTA             135    Bleu            148    Benchulo        200    SpaceHorseParty   5
Makarias        179    polesetter1     132    DutchQuicksilver138    Brawn BGP 001   200    Costaz            4
LolaB8060       172    M2000-5         123    M2000-5         138    KWSN-DSM        200    * Current         4
Brawn BGP 001   167    LolaB8060       105    Makarias        136    LolaB8060       188    ANF               3
GTA             158    mark f1         100    GTA             131    LB              180    Makarias          3
Costaz          156    ANF              95    Anderis         115    scheivlak       180    LolaB8060         1
* Forecast      154    Costaz           49    sladealonso     100    * Forecast       58    M2000-5           1
* Current        32    * Current        30    * Current        36    * Current        12    polesetter1       0

The PTPC forecast
Season premiere!
Name               Forecast  +/-
Brawn BGP 001        2071,4  27,4
LB                   2047,6  25,6
scheivlak            2043,6   7,6
GTA                  2031,4  26,4
Bleu                 2012,2  -3,8
LolaB8060            2003,0  28,0
Makarias             1986,0  18,0
DutchQuicksilver     1984,4  26,4
mark f1              1974,2  30,2
Anderis              1970,2  25,2
sladealonso          1969,0  18,0
Costaz               1967,0  34,0
KWSN-DSM             1961,8 -11,2
SpaceHorseParty      1951,2  30,2
M2000-5              1924,0  18,0
polesetter1          1917,8  -7,2
Benchulo             1813,0 -22,0
ANF                  1770,6   6,6
Early days, lots of stuff can still happen.

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#2 LolaB0860

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 17:34

Ah, the season premiere of forecasting. This is where it all begins.

 

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#3 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 17:48

I will be the last to join the underrating Hulkenberg club, can that bring me all the way to the top?



#4 LolaB0860

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 18:07

I will be the last to join the underrating Hulkenberg club, can that bring me all the way to the top?


Yes he's key to all of this

Or is there another

#5 KWSN - DSM

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 18:19

Yes he's key to all of this

Or is there another

 

Who am I to question the forecasts, the magic which is PTPC is the very best we have, yet after +20 years I still do not quite understand it, they all see too high.



#6 M2000-5

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 18:41

The forecast is too kind to me. I will be last this year.

#7 LolaB0860

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Posted 21 April 2024 - 19:37

I understand it perfectly!



#8 Anderis

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Posted 22 April 2024 - 10:19

The forecast is too kind to me. I will be last this year.

Look up Benchulo's and ANF's guesses on Verstappen, Perez and Sainz, I don't think there's any way you can end up last barring a scenario in which these drivers are unable to finish the season.



#9 GTA

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Posted 23 April 2024 - 13:08

Need a massive OP Ferrari upgrade or Max is hitting 600



#10 LolaB0860

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Posted 23 April 2024 - 13:31

Need a massive OP Ferrari upgrade or Max is hitting 600

He can't hit 600 as Sprints don't count and he retired once, he can only do 575 max (haha)

Which he probably will...

Edited by LolaB0860, 23 April 2024 - 13:54.