89 replies to this topic

[mariner]

18 months ago everything was about EV's heading to world production domination by 2030 etc. Many European OEM's declaring they would be "EV only" by then. Toyota was derided for being so behind on decent EV's xcmpared to China etc.

 

 

Now the EV rush has hit some reality  and MB has just cancelled its big EV only new platform and Fiat are putting hybrid IC engines into the  600 EV..

 

So, while full EV will come its going to be slower for a while, I think, so maybe the point Toyota made when criticised for it's lack of  EV sales is valid.

 

Basically they argued that with much of their markets in Latin America, Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia ( and maybe the USA) many years from  a full public charging network people can trust so using Lithium battery production to make many more smaller hybrid cars is actually better for quick de-carbonisation.

 

I am not sure if they are right but with plug in hybrids getting up to 50 real electric miles from overnight home charging it could be an interesting argument.?

 

[Afterburner]

18 months ago everything was about EV's heading to world production domination by 2030 etc. Many European OEM's declaring they would be "EV only" by then. Toyota was derided for being so behind on decent EV's xcmpared to China etc.
 
 
Now the EV rush has hit some reality  and MB has just cancelled its big EV only new platform and Fiat are putting hybrid IC engines into the  600 EV..
 
So, while full EV will come its going to be slower for a while, I think, so maybe the point Toyota made when criticised for it's lack of  EV sales is valid.
 
Basically they argued that with much of their markets in Latin America, Middle East, Africa and parts of Asia ( and maybe the USA) many years from  a full public charging network people can trust so using Lithium battery production to make many more smaller hybrid cars is actually better for quick de-carbonisation.
 
I am not sure if they are right but with plug in hybrids getting up to 50 real electric miles from overnight home charging it could be an interesting argument.?

My wife and I bought a plug-in hybrid last year (Honda Clarity) and since owning it I can’t see many benefits of using for a full EV over a plug-in hybrid if you live in a rural area and can make most full trips on the ~50 miles of range. Any technological advances that benefit EVs will also benefit plug-ins, which allow for the electrification of far more vehicles with the same amount of rare earth metals.

Not that I have anything against the folks who like going full EV, I just don’t see the downsides of the plug-ins, especially on a mass market scale.

[Bob Riebe]

The only thing Toyta is trying to save, or give damn about, is the bottom line.

 

Save the planet -- ****, I have a New York bridge I can sell them.

[Magoo]

If I had to choose between a Toyota EV and a Toyota hybrid, I would choose the hybrid. 

[MikeTekRacing]

My wife and I bought a plug-in hybrid last year (Honda Clarity) and since owning it I can’t see many benefits of using for a full EV over a plug-in hybrid if you live in a rural area and can make most full trips on the ~50 miles of range. Any technological advances that benefit EVs will also benefit plug-ins, which allow for the electrification of far more vehicles with the same amount of rare earth metals.

Not that I have anything against the folks who like going full EV, I just don’t see the downsides of the plug-ins, especially on a mass market scale.

for that specific use case you could build an EV with a smaller battery

Having a thermal engine carried around and not used is hardly a good use of resources

[Greg Locock]

"Having a thermal engine carried around and not used is hardly a good use of resources" which is a reasonable argument, but is building rarely used chargers in the middle of nowhere a good use of resources, or is driving a (non existent) mobile fast recharging unit to a flat EV a good use of resources? Is sitting around playing on your porn browser while you are topping up your charge a good use of resources ?  As it happens a hybrid is the only form of EV I could contemplate. I must admit Toyota's stance on EVs has long puzzled me.

[Afterburner]

for that specific use case you could build an EV with a smaller battery
Having a thermal engine carried around and not used is hardly a good use of resources

But how do you sell a vehicle with only ~50 miles of range to people who can only afford one vehicle and want to use it to travel long distances? As EV batteries get smaller so do those in plug-in hybrids.

[Catalina Park]

https://electrek.co/...-in-leadership/

[mariner]

https://electrek.co/...-in-leadership/

 

A vaild if somewhat hysterical point of view but it doesn't address the , I think , equally valid point Toyota made abut public charging networks , which are essential to EV take up, being a long way of in much of the  world.

 

If you take Latin America, Africa, Middle East,,India and Indonesia which are  45% of the world's population they have about 15M annual car sales which is the same as USA and more than Europe so I do think Toyota have a valid point - as long as they make plug in hybrids of course.

[mariner]

I have tried to apply a bit more of my often muddled thinking to this question of BEV's vs. PHEV's

 

Ultimately, I guess PHEV's make no sense as you are dragging an heavy and expensive IC engine plus gears around just because you don't have , or trust,, or can afford  public charging . What is more the IC engine is festooned with complex add-ons like EGR, PF's etc just to meet emissions standards.

 

The IC will go wrong eventually and if it fails the annual emissions test you can't use the car.

 

BUT 

 

Firstly,  if it has 40 -50 mile range and you have domestic plug you can probably still commute to work and shops each day until you can afford to fix it. Assuming of course that you are allowed to leave the test site with your IC engine immobilised.

So maybe the IC engine can be a pain but not a disaster.

 

Secondly, all cars with a battery/controller/motor installed use regeneration to extend range. That is true whether hey are F1, Formula E , BYD or Tesla etc. I Think the smaller PHEV batteries are still plenty big enough to accept the relatively  short brake, regen., power cycles. Which raises an interesting question of how much of an EV's range is from regen. not external charge up?

 

If you have access to recent Racecar Enginering's there is an interesting article  on exactly that subject for  Formula E races where the cars now start , by FIA regulation, with less energy than needed to run the race flat out so regen is everything.

Edited by mariner, 16 May 2024 - 10:35.

[Magoo]

I see PHEVs in part as training wheels for real EVs, helping timid and suspicious consumers to make the transition. 

[Magoo]

https://electrek.co/...-in-leadership/

 

Yep. Toyota spends millions around the world lobbying against climate change action. 

[cbo]

I see PHEVs in part as training wheels for real EVs, helping timid and suspicious consumers to make the transition.

There are things that EVs do not do well, yet.

Obviously, they are a hassle if you are driving in areas where the charging network is limited or non-existant. There is still quite a few places like that around Europe.

If you are towing something substantial at longer range, EVs are a hassle as well. You have to charge every 200 km or so and most charging stations require you to remove the trailer in order to charge the car.

I'd much prefer a PHEV for those scenarios, which is why I drive one. About half my annual milage is currently in EV mode, the other half is in HEV mode.

If I had to change my wheels today, the alternative to the PHEV would be petrol, perhaps HEV, not electric.

But in a few years time, that may have changed.

[Magoo]

Only a tiny percentage of the population ever tows a trailer.

[Lee Nicolle]

There are things that EVs do not do well, yet.

Obviously, they are a hassle if you are driving in areas where the charging network is limited or non-existant. There is still quite a few places like that around Europe.

If you are towing something substantial at longer range, EVs are a hassle as well. You have to charge every 200 km or so and most charging stations require you to remove the trailer in order to charge the car.

I'd much prefer a PHEV for those scenarios, which is why I drive one. About half my annual milage is currently in EV mode, the other half is in HEV mode.

If I had to change my wheels today, the alternative to the PHEV would be petrol, perhaps HEV, not electric.

But in a few years time, that may have changed.

Heavy towing?? Saw a clip on Elons Cartoon truck yesterday that got 85 miles on a full battery,,about the same as the Ford but less than the GM.

Utterly useless,, more so that you cannot pull up to a charge without unhooking the trailer.

This test was done alongside a Diesel Dodge that cost less to refill and not a 90 min+ recharge.And unless things change Stellantis is about to commit corporate suicide with EVs.

Worse importing China EVs. That will work well,,NOT.

[cbo]

Only a tiny percentage of the population ever tows a trailer.

That is not the point. The point is that there are very good reasons for some of us to drive a PHEV. That does not make us suspicious and timid when it comes to EVs.

You are displaying the arrogance of the elitist and fanatical EV-owner here and that is not becomming.

Also, you failed to mention the problem of the charging network not being up to the task. There are areas, where you may have a couple of 11 or 22 kw AC chargers and perhaps the odd 50 kw charger within, say, a 50 km radius. As a visitor, you have to compete with the locals for acces - if the chargers work, that is.

I like EVs and will likely get one in a few years time, but let's not make ourselves look stupid by assuming that EVs fit all current needs and that people who do not own EVs are timid and suspicious luddites.

[Lee Nicolle]

Only a tiny percentage of the population ever tows a trailer.

Actually a fairly large minority do,, what with boaties, caravanners, rural people, people doing the monthly dump run plus motorsport people as well. Driving interstate I reckon 25% of vehicles are towing.

And I doubt any or many will be doing this with an EV. The majority are doing it though in 4wds wether proper or SUV persuasions.

[Greg Locock]

It's a culture thing. In Oz there are 15 million cars and a million registered caravans and an unknown number of other small trailers. Tow bar fitment is 50% on big cars/SUVs. In the USA if you want to tow something you buy a truck.

[gruntguru]

I have tried to apply a bit more of my often muddled thinking to this question of BEV's vs. PHEV's

 

Ultimately, I guess PHEV's make no sense as you are dragging an heavy and expensive IC engine plus gears around just because you don't have , or trust,, or can afford  public charging . What is more the IC engine is festooned with complex add-ons like EGR, PF's etc just to meet emissions standards.

 

The IC will go wrong eventually and if it fails the annual emissions test you can't use the car. . . . .

I imagine hybrids have less difficulty meeting emissions standards - the ICE operates in a narrow high efficiency band - no idling, no full-load enrichment, fewer transients etc.

[MikeTekRacing]

But how do you sell a vehicle with only ~50 miles of range to people who can only afford one vehicle and want to use it to travel long distances? As EV batteries get smaller so do those in plug-in hybrids.

Those people are not the audience for it. If you have multiple vehicles maybe a 50mile-100 mile range one is also an option.

If not - there are 300 mile range now vehicles. 

Plug in is a bad compromise, you actually buy both cars. 
I get it why car manufacturers wanna sell them . 

[MikeTekRacing]

Actually a fairly large minority do,, what with boaties, caravanners, rural people, people doing the monthly dump run plus motorsport people as well. Driving interstate I reckon 25% of vehicles are towing.

And I doubt any or many will be doing this with an EV. The majority are doing it though in 4wds wether proper or SUV persuasions.

25% of the vehicles towing? no way near that.

Maybe 2.5%....

[BRG]

Plenty of EVs on the road round my way in the UK, but I cannot remember ever seeing one towing anything, nor even seeing one with a tow hitch fitted.

 

I am very pleased with my hybrid Renault.  70 mpg, 550 mile range between 3or 4 minute fuel stops.  Who needs a BEV?

[Greg Locock]

You have to differentiate between the proportion of mileage spent towing (that is, two trips a year at 2000 km each for my camper trailer, so 4000 out of a total of 20000) and the number of times you tow, 8 days out of a year. Similarly for my cage trailer, probably only 500 km a year, maybe 8 days.

 

According to the first relevant survey I pulled up 1% of 'short vehicles' as they call them were towing on some city roads.

[Catalina Park]

I live in a town on a major highway that is home to various fast chargers, I see quite a few electric vehicles towing trailers passing through. 
I also see lots of EVs with bike racks mounted to tow bars.

I spoke to a bloke that was towing his caravan behind a Kia EV. He loved it. He was comfortable with the range .and charging.

[Magoo]

EVs are awesome for towing. The issue is range while towing, and for many, probably most people that should not be a concern. 

[Secretariat]

As far as the opening post/question goes, I think Toyota is on a sensible path (mixed menu of solutions) if we are talking about a global strategy related to carbon emissions. However, a global strategy implies coordination and cooperation of governments and business interests alike which we do not have at the moment in my opinion. So, Toyota going the route of EV's, battery production, hydrogen and hybrids make sense to me. 

[mariner]

There is an old quote somewhere " confusion has wrought its masterpeice"

 

That seems to apply to the current turmoil on Hybrid vs PHEV vs EV!

 

The latest twist in Europe is Ford considering a range extender configuration ( think Chevy Volt!) in response to heavy criticism on PHEV's as being a fraud in the real world as nobody , it is claimed, charges them up at night.

 

To be fair there is some evidence in the UK that PHEV company cars don't get night charged much as they are bought mainly due to big tax benefits .

 

All very confusing - and expensive if you are an OEM

[Magoo]

Hybrids, PHEVs, and range extenders remind me of the Kübler-Ross model. 

 

The five stages of EV adoption: denial, anger, bargaining, depression, acceptance.

Edited by Magoo, 31 May 2024 - 16:56.

[MikeTekRacing]

 I think Toyota is on a sensible path (mixed menu of solutions) if we are talking about a global strategy related to carbon emissions. H

I think Toyota is actually trying to push people into what they do best (hybrids) and they are actively contributing to the skepticism the population has. They are offering a reason for people fearing change and want to be perceived as the sensible option - while obviously and completely by chance that is THE only option Toyota is competitive at. Kinda naughty.

They also use hydrogen, solid state and all kinds of mixed messages solution to reinforce people the thought that tech isn't there, we're not sure what's best, so here, try this hybrid for now, that's you're safe  bet

[Magoo]

As long as Toyota continues to spend millions lobbying against environmental regulations and climate change action, I have to question its commitment to protecting the environment. 

[Magoo]

MIT Technology Review's take on the environmental impact of PHEVs...

 

(There may be an email signin but this is MIT so at least you won't be spammed with Russian marriage offers.)

 

 

https://www.technolo...-their-drivers?

[Secretariat]

I think Toyota is actually trying to push people into what they do best (hybrids) and they are actively contributing to the skepticism the population has. They are offering a reason for people fearing change and want to be perceived as the sensible option - while obviously and completely by chance that is THE only option Toyota is competitive at. Kinda naughty.

They also use hydrogen, solid state and all kinds of mixed messages solution to reinforce people the thought that tech isn't there, we're not sure what's best, so here, try this hybrid for now, that's you're safe  bet

Toyota is engaged in the other activities I mention. I think the thing that is worth restating but differently, climate change is a global problem that requires a global solution. Given that countries are at different stages of technological development and standards of living, there needs to be other available solutions in addition to electrification. Perhaps there is a calculation but if everyone goes electric, where is all this power coming from to power all of other electrified items of modern society?

[Secretariat]

MIT Technology Review's take on the environmental impact of PHEVs...

 

(There may be an email signin but this is MIT so at least you won't be spammed with Russian marriage offers.)

 

 

https://www.technolo...-their-drivers?

Definitely would like to see the estimates be more reflective of real world conditions and at the same time have more efforts centered around charging infrastructure and driver education. Ultimately this question of which technologies will best help us in this predicament is where public policy, behavior change and governmental action intersects. 

[mariner]

I am not trying to promote PHEV's over straight BEV's but the populr tatement that EV's are " zero CO2" accepted in namy auto taxation systems is of course wrong today.

 

In future with 100% renewable/nuclear electricity it wil be true but not in 2024.

 

In 2023 the UK got to it's lowest ever CO2 per KWH at 162gms/KWH. The best current EV , the Tesla model 3, gets 4.6 miles or 7.2 km/KWH. 

 

So the best pure EV in the UK is responsible for 22 gms/km. Way, way better than anything else but not zero so any real world PHEV vs EV analysis should adjust for that

[MikeTekRacing]

I am not trying to promote PHEV's over straight BEV's but the populr tatement that EV's are " zero CO2" accepted in namy auto taxation systems is of course wrong today.

 

In future with 100% renewable/nuclear electricity it wil be true but not in 2024.

 

In 2023 the UK got to it's lowest ever CO2 per KWH at 162gms/KWH. The best current EV , the Tesla model 3, gets 4.6 miles or 7.2 km/KWH. 

 

So the best pure EV in the UK is responsible for 22 gms/km. Way, way better than anything else but not zero so any real world PHEV vs EV analysis should adjust for that

that is correct. The thing is you build the car once and then evolve the grid over the years so that number goes down.

For a car that has a combustion engine you are locked at the number

[404KF2]

Unless you hypermile ;)

 

22 g/km is very good. My DD is at 90g/km on diesel, using official figures.

[Secretariat]

Headlines aside, I did come across this article referencing Toyota and "green fuels and engines".

 

https://www.ecoticia...c-vehicle/4126/

[gruntguru]

Yes but . . .

 - where does all the biofuel and green hydrogen come from? (This is a much bigger question than "where will the electricity for EVs come from?")

 - where is all the hydrogen distribution and refuelling infrastructure? (This is a much bigger question than "where are the charging facilities for EVs?")

 - what is the end to end efficiency of a transportation system based on this tech

 - this tech is significantly lagging EV tech. Where will battery technology be in 5 years time?

Edited by gruntguru, 14 July 2024 - 06:50.

[Secretariat]

Yes but . . .

 - where does all the biofuel and green hydrogen come from? (This is a much bigger question than "where will the electricity for EVs come from?")

 - where is all the hydrogen distribution and refuelling infrastructure? (This is a much bigger question than "where are the charging facilities for EVs?")

 - what is the end to end efficiency of a transportation system based on this tech

 - this tech is significantly lagging EV tech. Where will battery technology be in 5 years time?

Yeah, all good questions. In terms of bio fuels there seems to be a plan to meet the predicted demands. As it relates to green hydrogen and E2E efficiency, sources I have read put this at 20-30%, woefully behind EV's. In terms of infrastructure for production, distribution and refueling, given the strategic partnership of Toyota, Subaru and Mazda to which there is also a heavy industries component, perhaps these companies/types of partnerships can leverage its resources to develop such needed infrastructure akin to what Tesla has managed with EV charging infrastructure. In terms of battery tech, there are promising advancements, but who knows. In my opinion, the biggest problem is the raw materials needed for the choice of battery that seems to be the standard (lithium-ion). However, all this seems to be without consideration for regional differences and needs, which for me, goes back to having different technologies absent a true global strategy in addressing the challenge.

 

https://www.eeca.gov...nergy/hydrogen/

https://www.nytimes....c-vehicles.html

https://prospect.org...rging-networks/

https://energypost.e...t-must-be-done/

[Greg Locock]

"In terms of bio fuels there seems to be a plan to meet the predicted demands. " Yes, bulldozing rainforests and planting palm oil plantations seems popular.

[Secretariat]

"In terms of bio fuels there seems to be a plan to meet the predicted demands. " Yes, bulldozing rainforests and planting palm oil plantations seems popular.

Again, I suppose it depends where you are in the world. And for some places given that no one is handing out the technologies or intellectual properties for the tech that will help mitigate the problem faced, I suppose instead of razing the lands, maintaining current ICE vehicles with traditional fuels is probably the most sensible thing to do. Alas, no one seems able to stomach that absent a different choice for these regions.

Edited by Secretariat, 15 July 2024 - 10:44.

[MikeTekRacing]

Hydrogen makes no sense to scale for personal vehicles. Cruise boats and maybe commercial trucks yes.

the energy need is a lot bigger, efficiency is lower and infrastructure is way harder to roll out than ALL the EV conversations we have about infrastructure.

 

Synthetic fuels come with other challenges and still do not eliminate the fact that you burn unhealthy sh!t and spread it out via the exhaust pipe.

[MikeTekRacing]

Related Frustrated Mirai Owners Sue Toyota Over Hydrogen Headaches (msn.com)

[Secretariat]

For clarity, I am not advocating one option over another. However, I am saying going the route of "EV only" is not sensible. It is especially not sensible when there isn't a cohesive global plan that does not change with each election cycle; or change around the priorities for quarterly earnings; or ignores regional/economic differences. In my opinion, the above is the crux of the issue, not technological. We went down this route already with the proliferation and dominance of ICE/fossil fueled vehicles in the last century. There is no need to do it again with an EV only strategy. 

Edited by Secretariat, 15 July 2024 - 20:05.

[PJGD]

 

 

Synthetic fuels come with other challenges and still do not eliminate the fact that you burn unhealthy sh!t and spread it out via the exhaust pipe.

 

I don't think that it has to be like this.  Most synthetic fuels are smokeless [and modern lube oil control can be very good], and there are technological solutions for the other criteria pollutants.  Note also, that Mainspring claim that their [stationary] engines are certified to operate in California without exhaust aftertreatment, so it is possible.  It is just that automotive powertrain engineering have not caught up yet, but in time they will.

[MikeTekRacing]

I don't think that it has to be like this.  Most synthetic fuels are smokeless [and modern lube oil control can be very good], and there are technological solutions for the other criteria pollutants.  Note also, that Mainspring claim that their [stationary] engines are certified to operate in California without exhaust aftertreatment, so it is possible.  It is just that automotive powertrain engineering have not caught up yet, but in time they will.

there is no benefit in pursuing that avenue.

Electric is way more efficient from an energy point of view and way simpler.

It still has rollout challenges, but they are easier than the other challenges. 

There is no other solution that can economically win. 

[PJGD]

I don't think that economics is necessarily the right criteria.  At the individual car owner level it very likely is the ruling criteria, but from the big picture point of view the important criteria is to get to net zero carbon as quickly as possible, and electrification is not necessarily the fastest route.  EV's are not zero emissions nor are they zero CO2.  The best that an EV can do is to approach net zero, whereas there are pathways for bio-fuels to have a negative carbon intensity.

 

Note that recent lifecycle studies (SAE paper 2016-01-2209) have shown that the compression ignition fuel DME when made from dairy farm waste for example can achieve a carbon intensity of -278 gCO2eq/MJ, and this is not the only example.  DME has an impending infrastructure through the propane industry.  No one is suggesting that low carbon fuels will supplant electrification; simply that we can't afford to dismiss any option in the race to net zero.  Once we are on a clear trajectory to get there, then we can let the market demonstrate that electrification is the obvious solution for personal transport.

 

Actually, my original comment was directed more at the emissions angle because you made it sound as if you had fallen for the canard that EV's are zero emissions (but I am sure that you know that it is not true), and I was pointing out that ICE have available options to improve their performance too, and since ICE will be around for a while yet, development should not stop.

[Nathan]

EV's are not zero emissions nor are they zero CO2.  The best that an EV can do is to approach net zero, whereas there are pathways for bio-fuels to have a negative carbon intensity.

 

 

If my electricity is from hydro dams, am I zero emissions with an EV? Or, are we including the whole product cycle? If so, has the same rigor and detail been applied to bio-fuels?

[cbo]

When the EU is talking about zero-emission for vehicles, it is referring to tail-pipe emissions. With that definition, EVs are zero-emission, even if the electric power they use is generated by burning old tires and lignite

[Greg Locock]

@Nathan, yes-ish if the marginal electricity is hydro, but it is more likely to be NG.