87 replies to this topic

[IrvTheSwerve]

Some interesting replies in the race thread, so I thought it would be an interesting poll.

 

Would you bet your house (or all of your possessions/money) on him winning the WDC from here? During March this would have been a very tempting proposition. Now, with McLaren, Ferrari and even Mercedes challenging, especially McLaren and Norris, with 15 races left (and sprints), what would you do? There's a 56 point gap between 1st and 2nd in the WDC currently.

 

So, are you that certain that Max has the WDC sewn up? He's without doubt the favourite, but are you certain?

[le chat noir]

What’s the reward?

[IrvTheSwerve]

What’s the reward?

 

Your wildest dreams.

[JG]

Not my house, but he is still most likely WDC 2024

[geralt]

I'm not a betting man, but yes. He's the best driver on the grid, even without the best car (which has yet to be proven, I expect Max to be dominant tomorrow in the race if dry) he will still fight for wins and 2nd places. The margins of points he has now should be more than enough. The only way he doesn't win the championship is if he has some sort of accident like Shumi did in 1999 that causes him to miss half the season

[IrvTheSwerve]

Vote!

[le chat noir]

Do I think he will win. Yes.

Do I want to put all my earthly possessions at risk, without any control? No.

He could break a leg tomorrow.

[Bleu]

Do I think he will win. Yes.

Do I want to put all my earthly possessions at risk, without any control? No.

He could break a leg tomorrow.

 

Pretty much this. He is clearly the biggest favourite to win it, but anything can happen.

[jonklug]

Wouldn't bet the house but I'm pretty confident he will win it yes. I do think McLaren have overtaken RedBull however, that car looks good at every single track, and Max couldn't beat it even with a tow.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Do I think he will win. Yes.

Do I want to put all my earthly possessions at risk, without any control? No.

He could break a leg tomorrow.

 

Let's put freak occurrences out of the window - let's base this purely on pace.

[Anderis]

What’s the reward?

You keep your house.

[le chat noir]

Let's put freak occurrences out of the window - let's base this purely on pace.

What does that even mean though? It’s not about pace, it’s about optimising in face of different challenges. Whether that’s weather, backmarkers, safety cars, shenangigans in a plane WC, wind tunnel calibration etc.

McLaren are there on pace.

Take everything else away, it’s tight. Too tight if they were equal on points now, but the advantage is sufficient to probably carry it. Make it F1, it’s less tight. Probably.

But that’s the point of your question. It’s not nailed on but still highly likely.

Would be more interesting if this was round 4, for sure.

[PayasYouRace]

I’d say Max’s lead looks pretty unassailable, but I could be that certain. It looked like he’d run away with the season again, but it’s not happening. I’d love to see Norris sneak a championship.

 

In before our member who takes “bets” vert seriously and asks everyone to put their house where their mouth is lest you be called a coward.

[P123]

Yes, because those chasing him tend to be different teams from race to race.  If McLaren or Ferrari go on a run of four or five races with the best package, then things could get interesting.  But for now it's one or the other, and Max is either quickest or second quickest, so still building a points lead.  Plus he has the experience of a tight championship fight should it come to that. 

[Afterburner]

Not a chance I’d risk that much on anything. Life is crazy. Injuries are a thing—real hard to win if you can’t race.

[IrvTheSwerve]

What does that even mean though? It’s not about pace, it’s about optimising in face of different challenges. Whether that’s weather, backmarkers, safety cars, shenangigans in a plane WC, wind tunnel calibration etc.

McLaren are there on pace.

Take everything else away, it’s tight. Too tight if they were equal on points now, but the advantage is sufficient to probably carry it. Make it F1, it’s less tight. Probably.

But that’s the point of your question. It’s not nailed on but still highly likely.

Would be more interesting if this was round 4, for sure.

Dude, jeez, if it was offered to you right now, what would you do…nothing more. 

[Clatter]

I’d say Max’s lead looks pretty unassailable, but I could be that certain. It looked like he’d run away with the season again, but it’s not happening. I’d love to see Norris sneak a championship.

In before our member who takes “bets” vert seriously and asks everyone to put their house where their mouth is lest you be called a coward.

I would have said the same in 2007 with 2 races to go, and Hamilton lost. We're still not half way through the current season, and 15 races still to go. Based on the performance swing in the last few races, it's not as secure a lead as it was looking.

[InSearchOfThe]

In before our member who takes “bets” vert seriously and asks everyone to put their house where their mouth is lest you be called a coward.

I guess our last exchange has been keeping you up nights?
I was over it, but apparently you're not.
Get over yourself cupcake.

[Collombin]

Even if it's near certain (and I wouldn't know), surely you can only agree to the stake if you know the odds being offered?

[huggybear]

Based on his pace relative to Mclaren, his damage control is about as good as you could hope for. McLaren have arguably had the fastest car in the last four races, and in those 4 races, Max has two wins, a second, and a 6th place. 

The only real indication that Red Bull aren't the fastest anymore is the complete pigs ear that is Checo's season. 

 

If I had to put money on anyone winning the title from here, it would be him, because McLaren are not as dominantly fast as Red Bull were, so the opportunity for them to quickly bridge and extend a lead isn't there, and Mercedes and Ferrari will take points off them at some point.  

[FirstnameLastname]

This could be his Brawn 2009 year. He’s already built a buffer so just needs to pick up the odd win and then be ‘best of the rest’ when the fastest team changes week to week

[PayasYouRace]

I guess our last exchange has been keeping you up nights?
I was over it, but apparently you're not.
Get over yourself cupcake.

Not at all. You think it bothers me, but it really doesn’t. It amuses me.

[Jackmancer]

TBH this feels a bit like the 2003 season. Lots of race winners, but Michael wins it only just through being the most consistent.

[Alfisti]

I've been watching f1 seriously since 94 and injuries aside, I can't remember one I stance where someone jumped out to a significant lead and was beaten at years end.

I'd not bet my house but would I bet $10k at $1.20, yes, yes I would.

[noikeee]

I'm not "certain" of jack **** that hasn't happened yet. The future isn't set in stone and there are things that could happen to derail this.

I would estimate his chances 90%+, certainly 80%+. But the others have been catching at a surprisingly fast rate. Two DNFs and Red Bulls to take another slight step backwards and it's suddenly VERY open.

[w1Y]

Without something on offer then no I wouldn't.

I'm not even convinced that red bull aren't purposely sandbagging. J/k

Edited by w1Y, 23 June 2024 - 01:07.

[SamH123]

I don't think he gets beat without a force majeure (e.g. injury or 4+ retirements)

Today did not present a good argument he isn't massive favourite, Norris said it was his best lap ever and he beat Ver by 0.02 or whatever it was

[1player]

Should I risk my most precious possession, or should I not risk it? Weird question. I wouldn't even with 99.99% certainty.

As I said in the race thread, if the question is to bet my house on Max winning, or bet my house on Max NOT winning, everybody and their dog would bet on Max, simple.

[RedRabbit]

Yes. It's not just Max, the whole of Red Bull are formidable competitors who turn up to win every day.

His 2 main opponents are not just Lando and Charles, but also McLaren and Ferrari who both lack that little bit of extra to put a series of race wins together at the moment.

[PayasYouRace]

TBH this feels a bit like the 2003 season. Lots of race winners, but Michael wins it only just through being the most consistent.

More like 2001. Kimi was the most consistent in 2003, Michael won the most races by far but the title fight was close because he lacked the usual Ferrari consistency.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Should I risk my most precious possession, or should I not risk it? Weird question. I wouldn't even with 99.99% certainty.

As I said in the race thread, if the question is to bet my house on Max winning, or bet my house on Max NOT winning, everybody and their dog would bet on Max, simple.

People are getting a bit fixated on the betting aspect of my question…basically what I’m putting to people is that probably everyone was certain that Max would win the WDC 2 or 3 races in - it was looking like 2023 all over again. Some are saying RedBull still have a clear advantage, some are saying that the championship is all to play for. All I’m asking is are people still certain of a Max WDC or not, yes or no - if you HAD to choose. None of this ‘well, it’s still likely but who knows’ stuff…that’s what makes the question interesting.

[Lowgrip]

Lando is Max's friend and as long as he will play nice, Max will win his WDC.

To have a chance, he will need to unsettle Max and be fierce.

[William Hunt]

No, betting is for stupid people who often end up with debt and then have to rely on social workers to save their ass. Betting is an addiction just as damaging for society as alcoholism. Betting is not cool. I do think Max will easily win the title. That so many cars (since recently even Mercedes as well) are competitive now, means that there won't be a serious title thread to Max, because those cars from McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes will take away points from each other.
A serious title challenge and thread to Max can, this year at least, only come if one team and one competitor can maximise his points without losing points to other drivers. Max current lead is a pretty safe gap.

Edited by William Hunt, 23 June 2024 - 09:40.

[JimmyClark]

I wouldn't bet my house on it, but certainly I think he will still get it - in a way as cars have equalised he will have more of an advantage, as his driving talent will consistently put him on the podium, whilst others keep swapping round.

However, I think it will take a little while for bookies to catch up with this, so laying him to win will probably get decent odds for a few races.

[Mat13]

This almost feels like a 2009 style year, where Brawn were dominant to begin with, were overtaken on pace but had enough in hand to keep it together. I don’t think this is to that extreme though, so I think Max is safe. As much as I’d like to see a McLaren champion this year, I’m comfortable with waiting till 2025.

[noikeee]

This almost feels like a 2009 style year, where Brawn were dominant to begin with, were overtaken on pace but had enough in hand to keep it together.

I was going to write exactly the same!

Obviously emotionally this season has nothing in common with the Brawn year, but mathematically the way the title fight is evolving, does look very similar!

[garoidb]

No, betting is for stupid people who often end up with debt and then have to rely on social workers to save their ass. Betting is an addiction just as damaging for society as alcoholism. Betting is not cool. I do think Max will easily win the title. That so many cars (since recently even Mercedes as well) are competitive now, means that there won't be a serious title thread to Max, because those cars from McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes will take away points from each other.
A serious title challenge and thread to Max can, this year at least, only come if one team and one competitor can maximise his points without losing points to other drivers. Max current lead is a pretty safe gap.

 

I don't like the gambling industry either but I'll leave that aside for now. About the bolded bit, if several teams can beat Max later in the season then, yes, they might divide the points between them and fall short. It depends on whether Max is just a little less competitive than Ferrari, McLaren and Mercedes (sporadically finishing ahead of some of them) or whether it would all fall apart and he would be getting beaten by them all most of the time. At the moment, I see no sign of a total collapse or even of any real trouble at all. This year. Next year is another thing.

[Alfisti]

I'll say it again, show me the last example of a driver losing the wdc after a significant gap 25pc of the way into the season.

It just doesn't happen.

[noikeee]

I'll say it again, show me the last example of a driver losing the wdc after a significant gap 25pc of the way into the season.

It just doesn't happen.

Schumacher nearly did in 1994
Laffite 1979
Leclerc 2 years ago but it was earlier in the season
Lewis 2007 with 2 races to go

[Alfisti]

Schumacher nearly did in 1994
Laffite 1979
Leclerc 2 years ago but it was earlier in the season
Lewis 2007 with 2 races to go

Nearly doesn't count

Sorry I said last 30 yrs forst time I said it, my mistake

Leclerc wasn't ahead by much by 25pc, it was earlier and due to a dnf from max

Lewis lead was never significant

It just doesn't happen and look right now, max gonna win again. People are dreamers in f1, it's actually very predictable which is why max is paying $1.09 to be wdc. The market knows.

Edited by Alfisti, 23 June 2024 - 14:21.

[noikeee]

Lewis lead was never significant

12 points over Alonso and 17 over Kimi with 2 races to go when race wins were worth 10 points, and Kimi wins... It was nuts

But I agree with you on the overall argument, it's very rare

[Alfisti]

Thats not the same, it's a short timeline so a dnf here and weird result there and boom.

With 75pc of the season remaining (to use an arbitrary point) it means you need a sustained advantage, which just doesn't happen.when someone jumps out to an effective 2 race points lead even in the first third of a season, its over unless he breaks a leg.

Edited by Alfisti, 23 June 2024 - 14:57.

[jacdaniel]

I get the feeling this WDC could end up like the race today. Lando closing that gap more and more but Max will be able to still grab some wins and Norris might run out of time.

Or Red Bull will bring a big upgrade and dominate haha

[Benchulo]

I'll say it again, show me the last example of a driver losing the wdc after a significant gap 25pc of the way into the season.

It just doesn't happen.

Fernando had 40 point lead over Webber and 42 over Vettel heading into the summer break in 2012.

[Alfisti]

If that is true its remarkable because it always felt like vettel was going to win that Cc. Max right now is near 3 race wins ahead.

I can't recall ever being surprised by the eventual wdc winner after the first handful of races, it always seems to go right to whoever you suspect will win it other than maybe rosberg in 2016.

Edited by Alfisti, 23 June 2024 - 16:40.

[Beri]

Fernando had 40 point lead over Webber and 42 over Vettel heading into the summer break in 2012.

Yeah but those development races were helped with unlimited resources. McLaren has put on a huge amount of updates already only to be still off the pace. Red Bull is yet to bring their first big updates for 2024.

I pretty much can't see it any other way than Verstappen winning this one with more than ease. It's a good thing that the field is closing up. But many will be left disappointed as McLaren and Norris simply falling short by a mile, in the end, together with Ferrari and Mercedes. That is my thought.

[Astandahl]

With Norris as his main rival, i would bet my life on Max.

Edited by Astandahl, 23 June 2024 - 16:47.

[flyboym3]

70 points wdc lead and he's still pulling a gap, no brainer.

Edited by flyboym3, 23 June 2024 - 16:47.

[Astandahl]

Fernando had 40 point lead over Webber and 42 over Vettel heading into the summer break in 2012.

Alonso had a trash car and Vettel was better than Norris.

[Benchulo]

Yeah but those development races were helped with unlimited resources. McLaren has put on a huge amount of updates already only to be still off the pace. Red Bull is yet to bring their first big updates for 2024.

I pretty much can't see it any other way than Verstappen winning this one with more than ease. It's a good thing that the field is closing up. But many will be left disappointed as McLaren and Norris simply falling short by a mile, in the end, together with Ferrari and Mercedes. That is my thought.

Verstappen probably has to take penalties for exceeding PU limits. He is already using his 4th?

In my view, Red Bull and Verstappen are making the difference last few races. If McLaren starts executing their races perfectly, they could get quite close to Verstappen by the end of the season.