87 replies to this topic

[Beri]

Should and could be close. Yet everyone seems to be forgetting that Verstappen was managing even as early as his second stint. Norris went full send and still was easily left at bay over 2 seconds. I'm certain that the Red Bull and Verstappen package is, even without major updates, still the fastest package of the field. No tactical masterstroke or technical failure will dampen that, I'd say, fact.

[SenorSjon]

70 points wdc lead and he's still pulling a gap, no brainer.

 

Verstappen only gained 17 points on Norris the last 5 races. One more DNF and  you can drop 25/6 points.

[Astandahl]

Verstappen only gained 17 points on Norris the last 5 races. One more DNF and  you can drop 25/6 points.

DNF can happen to norris as well

[Alfisti]

Verstappen only gained 17 points on Norris the last 5 races. One more DNF and you can drop 25/6 points.

Thats crazy logic, at some point Norris will dnf too. Max is still extending his lead at a time when folks are saying Norris will catch him.

You're all nuts.

[Ben24]

Your wildest dreams.

Depends on the odds. At 1/10 or less I can't imagine anyone betting their house but at 100/1 I would risk my house

[Ruusperi]

I can bet my house that he secures the WDC on Sao Paulo sprint race (easy for me as I don't own a house).

[SenorSjon]

DNF can happen to norris as well

 

Quite unnoticed, but he hardly has DNF's. These are all his DNF's:

2023 Vegas (crash)

-

2022 Brazil (gearbox)

2022 Miami (accident)

-

2021 Hungary (Bottas Bowl)

-

2020 Eiffel (PU failure)

-

2019 Mexico (retired after 2 minute pitstop)

2019 Belgium (PU failure)

2019 Germany (PU failure)

2019 Canada (suspension failure due to overhating brakes)

2019 Spain (collision)

Edited by SenorSjon, 23 June 2024 - 18:16.

[Astandahl]

Quite unnoticed, but he hardly has DNF's. These are all his DNF's:

2023 Vegas (crash)

-

2022 Brazil (gearbox)

2022 Miami (accident)

-

2021 Hungary (Bottas Bowl)

-

2020 Eiffel (PU failure)

-

2019 Mexico (retired after 2 minute pitstop)

2019 Belgium (PU failure)

2019 Germany (PU failure)

2019 Canada (suspension failure due to overhating brakes)

2019 Spain (collision)

Verstappen doesn't have a lot either in the last few years.

[Nemo1965]

No, betting is for stupid people who often end up with debt and then have to rely on social workers to save their ass. Betting is an addiction just as damaging for society as alcoholism. Betting is not cool. I do think Max will easily win the title. That so many cars (since recently even Mercedes as well) are competitive now, means that there won't be a serious title thread to Max, because those cars from McLaren, Ferrari and Mercedes will take away points from each other.
A serious title challenge and thread to Max can, this year at least, only come if one team and one competitor can maximise his points without losing points to other drivers. Max current lead is a pretty safe gap.

Whoosh!

[F1matt]

I am not convinced Lando Norris will finish 2nd. He should comfortably win more driver of the day trophies though. 

[messy]

Yes - Max is the best driver and Red Bull are the best operationally. Plus they have a good lead in the points and a car that, if no longer categorically THE best car on the grid, is pretty close at worst, everywhere. Ferrari and Mercedes still flatter to deceive too much, its still Max's title.

No - it'll be really alarming for Red Bull I think that they had to work so hard in Spain, because this was meant to be the weekend where they reasserted their dominance and proved it was just a run of quirky circuits that made things look close. And that very much didn't happen. McLaren are going to have the car to win a LOT based on that, and there are about 60 races left to go.

I'd heavily favour Max, but I do also like my house a lot...

Edited by messy, 23 June 2024 - 19:35.

[PlatenGlass]

Schumacher nearly did in 1994
Laffite 1979
Leclerc 2 years ago but it was earlier in the season
Lewis 2007 with 2 races to go

Mansell was in a similar position to Lewis in 1986.

Senna's lead over Mansell went from 34 to 8 in a very small number of races. Senna held on, but it wasn't a foregone conclusion.

[Dmitriy_Guller]

I wouldn't bet my house unless the odds were very favorable (and I owned a house), but I think Verstappen still holds all the cards.  McLaren becoming as fast as Red Bull isn't enough to dethrone Verstappen, because then Norris and Verstappen would be trading the first two places from race to race.  F1 these days is too reliable for massive points swings.  Verstappen's lead will be in danger only if Red Bull would fall behind multiple teams.

[Zmeej]

Would only bet $77 either way if I met James Cole (Bruce Willis’s character in 12 Monkeys) during one of his “accidental” sojourns in the “wrong year” and he told me the standings as of Nov. 17, 2024.

 

In short, no.

Edited by Zmeej, 25 June 2024 - 17:56.

[PlatenGlass]

Thats not the same, it's a short timeline so a dnf here and weird result there and boom.

With 75pc of the season remaining (to use an arbitrary point) it means you need a sustained advantage, which just doesn't happen.when someone jumps out to an effective 2 race points lead even in the first third of a season, its over unless he breaks a leg.

It's easier to overturn a big lead with more races!

It's not that it's likely to happen but we have seen big leads overturned and nearly overturned showing these things are possible.

[ensign14]

I've been watching f1 seriously since 94 and injuries aside, I can't remember one I stance where someone jumped out to a significant lead and was beaten at years end.
 

 

1981 and 1983 were standout examples.

[SenorSjon]

Schumacher had 3 DNF's in a row in 2000, vaporizing his lead.

[JimmyClark]

2000 had a big swing from Schumacher to Hakkinen - after 8 races (nearly half the season back then), Schumacher had a lead of 24 points (2 wins and a 3rd place, similar to what Max has now). 

 

5 races later, after Spa, due to getting involved in lots of start line incidents and Hakkinen putting a string of results in, Hakkinen was leading by 6 points. (a second place). 

 

Then Schumacher blitzed the end of the year and wrapped it up early in that Suzuka epic, but it does show that a healty lead now cannot be taken for granted. And all it takes is a small Ricciardo-style injury and you miss a few races because they are so tightly packed together.  

 

Edit: Snap SenorSjon. 

Edited by JimmyClark, 24 June 2024 - 14:01.

[PlatenGlass]

In 1996 Hill led by 25 points and it went to the final race.

[JeePee]

If I have the guarentee Max doesn't miss any races due to a 'tennis accident' or some illness, yes, I would bet my house on it.

[AlexPrime]

No. I hope and believe he will win, but if McLaren moves clearly ahead, Lando will probably take it and it is possible that it will happen.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Incredible that this is 50/50 at the moment. Imagine this in March - it would be 90-10 in Max's favour, for sure.

[PlatenGlass]

Incredible that this is 50/50 at the moment. Imagine this in March - it would be 90-10 in Max's favour, for sure.

I think people are just taking the betting your house thing literally.

[IrvTheSwerve]

I think people are just taking the betting your house thing literally.

 

Indeed, I was going to name the thread 'I've got a gun to your head, does Max win the WDC?' but thought that the mods might not like that.

[IrvTheSwerve]

'Betting your house' is a figure of speech in the UK, not sure about the rest of the World.

[PlatenGlass]

Indeed, I was going to name the thread 'I've got a gun to your head, does Max win the WDC?' but thought that the mods might not like that.

But the gun to your head thing is asking which you think is more likely so 50+%, whereas betting your house is something deemed to be close to a dead cert.

[IrvTheSwerve]

But the gun to your head thing is asking which you think is more likely so 50+%, whereas betting your house is something deemed to be close to a dead cert.

 

I mean...basically, I put a gun to your head, does Max win the WDC. In March I would say that the vast majority of people would say 'yes', but I was interested in what people would say now.

Edited by IrvTheSwerve, 24 June 2024 - 15:26.

[7MGTEsup]

All things being equal I would say Max for the win. He can afford to finish second to Norris or Leclerc in the next 7 races and still be in the lead. Who ever is going to beat him needs to win 10 of the next 15 races unless Max/Redbull falls of a cliff (not literally).

[MikeTekRacing]

Verstappen only gained 17 points on Norris the last 5 races. One more DNF and  you can drop 25/6 points.

or you can look at it that there have been 5 races where Norris had the chance to crawl back some of that and he actually lost 17 points.

[Sterzo]

But the gun to your head thing is asking which you think is more likely so 50+%, whereas betting your house is something deemed to be close to a dead cert.

If IrvTheSwerve put a gun to my head I'd bet his house that Verstappen would win the championship.

[IrvTheSwerve]

If IrvTheSwerve put a gun to my head I'd bet his house that Verstappen would win the championship.

I may be homeless thanks to you soon…

[Deeq]

If IrvTheSwerve put a gun to my head I'd bet his house that Verstappen would win the championship.

🤣

[AustinF1]

I would never bet my house on anything, and I rarely bet more than a trivial amount of money on sports because there's always too much important information we are not able to know. That said, I think it would take a herculean effort for Lando to overtake Max to win this WDC.

 

ETA: In the 'gun to my head' scenario, then yeah, I'd bet the house on Max.

Edited by AustinF1, 31 August 2024 - 16:09.

[SenorSjon]

I would never bet my house on anything, and I rarely bet on sports because there's always too much important information we are not able to know. That said, I think it would take a herculean effort for Lando to overtake Max to win this WDC.

ETA: In the 'gun to my head' scenario, then yeah, I'd bet the house on Max.

Max yes
Red Bull no!

So no, I wouldn't bet my house on it.

[Deeq]

I would never bet my house on anything, and I rarely bet more than a trivial amount of money on sports because there's always too much important information we are not able to know. That said, I think it would take a herculean effort for Lando to overtake Max to win this WDC.

ETA: In the 'gun to my head' scenario, then yeah, I'd bet the house on Max.

Easy do as Sterzo and bet someone else home erm IrvTheSwerve..;-

Edited by Deeq, 31 August 2024 - 16:13.

[Afterburner]

So, those who said “yes”… tell us how you’re feeling about your bet now?

[PlatenGlass]

It's not particularly close.

[Jackmancer]

I would still rather bet my house on Max than Lando, but I'd be pretty nervous now.