1302 replies to this topic

[SophieB]

Lots of rumours about Perez’s future, Jon Noble has now run a story on the front page of Autosport joining up some of the dots, suggesting that despite the new contract, performance clauses mean his job at Red Bull is in imminent danger:

 

The team remains hopeful that Perez can rediscover the form that saw him deliver podium finishes at the start of the year, but it is clear that patience is beginning to run out.

The situation in the constructors’ championship and the risks of it getting overhauled if things do not change has brought matters to a head – and left the team pondering its next step.

And matters are now close to a critical point with it understood that, despite Perez having a contract in place for next year, he could still be dropped – potentially as early as the summer break – if things do not change.

Sources have suggested that Red Bull has the right to terminate Perez’s contract if he falls more than 100 points behind Verstappen at key points of the championship – which are the summer break and the end of the season.

https://www.autospor...ck-in/10632975/

 

 

[macjim]

Vultures circling, he has been very poor for a number of races. 

 

His time is up.

[jonklug]

 

Sources have suggested that Red Bull has the right to terminate Perez’s contract if he falls more than 100 points behind Verstappen at key points of the championship – which are the summer break and the end of the season.

 

If this is true, then it's already game over. No way does Perez recover 19 points on Verstappen in the next 2 races. I honestly don't see how Checo even scores 19 points in the next 2 races, even that seems difficult at this time. The car falling a bit behind Mercedes and McLaren, coupled with Sergio feeling the pressure and making mistake after mistake should really seal this one. 

 

Give Tsunoda a shot or even Lawson. Ricciardo is the boring solution but honestly I don't see him doing much better - but they might go with him just to not put a young guy in that car and ruin their morale/reputation. 

[PayasYouRace]

Kvyat and Gasly were demoted for less.

[Spillage]

I think he'll last the season. Who are they gonna replace him with? But if he doesm't turn it round quikcly they'll drop him for 2025. We're getting to the point where Tsunoda would probably do a better job, and that would free up a place at RB for Lawson or Hadjar. Maybe both, if Ricciardo doesn't step it up his form.

[Gareth]

He's in the hardest seat in motorsport IMO. Up against one of the best of all time, the performance gap is always going to be big even in a team that's completely even handed. Add on Red Bull being* totally focused on Verstappen, and a big gap becomes even larger.

 

Then add on the field closing up so much this season, and a big time gap suddenly becomes a big positions deficit. And it starts to look dreadful.

 

Then add on the pressure that comes with repeated underperformance that looks dreadful and you get even worse performance. And it starts to look clownish.

 

Red Bull's challenge is who do you replace him with, given all of the above? They know from what happened with Gasly and Albon that this seat isn't for a young guy at the start of his career. You come in wanting/needing to prove yourself, and all of the factors above make it look like you're not F1 material, and your confidence goes and you're young and it nearly ends a career before it's even started.

 

This is IMO why they have gone with Ricciardo at VCARB over Lawson. He's at a stage of his career where, similar to Perez, the plan is "he'll be ok with it - he's at the back end of his career, happy to be in F1 with the potential to pick up regular podiums and perhaps even the odd race win. He'll be fine with being dominated by his team mate". So they could put him in that seat. Not convinced they get particularly better performance, though.

 

My guess is they roll the dice with Ricciardo mid-season, with Lawson subbing in at VCARB. Then things improve a bit for the second seat initially, but there's still a big gap in performance and points, and then next year it's kind of the same as this year.

 

Or they do something like make a move for Bottas for next year?

 

*rightly and understandably - he's earned it

[Sterzo]

So, if as we speculated, Horner and Marko disagreed over whether to renew Perez for 2024, it looks like they took the rational decision to compromise, and give him a performance related contract. Therefore it's no longer a matter of opinion. It's clear cut: deliver or go. And he hasn't been delivering.

[Massa_f1]

I doubt he is going to be able to finish ahead of the 2 Mercedes or McLarens again this season. even if he does find his early season form.

 

Question is who can jump into the 2nd Red Bull and take it to the Mercs and McLarens?

[jonklug]

I doubt he is going to be able to finish ahead of the 2 Mercedes or McLarens again this season. even if he does find his early season form.

 

Question is who can jump into the 2nd Red Bull and take it to the Mercs and McLarens?

 

From the drivers available in the RB driver pool? No one really. Unless Lawson is the real deal and can do the job, but I don't think they'd throw him directly in the RedBull.

[Topsu]

What a brutal ending to a career if this form continues...

[SenorSjon]

Ah, finally the annual Perez form thread. Last year also wasn't very good. https://forums.autos...-keep-his-seat/

 

It is said he has 2 milestones (summer break and end of season) a year he needs to be within 100 pts of Verstappen or Red Bull has the option to terminate the contract.

 

A lot of politics are the root of his extension in the first place, but his current form has now caught up with that, making this unsustainable.

 

- Sargeant outqualified him again, while never outqualifying Albon

- At the conclusion of the Imola weekend, Perez was 3rd with 107 pts, trailing Leclerc by 6 and Verstappen by 54 pts.

- He has now dropped to 6th with 118 (yes, only 11 points in 5 races+sprint), 137 pts behind Verstappen.

- With only 2 regular races to go, he needs to outscore Verstappen with 37 pts. That is a win + 4th or 2 2nds with FL at least with Verstappen scoring nothing.

- He is only 6 points behind Piastri in 5th, but the Mercedes drivers which were 63/72 pts behind are now only 7/8 pts behind.

- Like last year, he is quite lucky other teams trade blows with each other, with now Ferrari having a slump in scoring as well, keeping Red Bull first in the WCC.

- Will Lawson get a similar test to what Ricciardo had last year, 'putting it on the front row'. It seemed like a Horner ploy to put Marko's selection of De Vries as a negative. Now it looks the other way around.

 

- There needs to be time between the Mexican GP and the firing, otherwise RB-stuff won't make it to the track alive. 

Edited by SenorSjon, 08 July 2024 - 10:04.

[dissident]

I think he’s either gone after Spa or staying until the end of the season.

Feels like they want him to stay but they will look like fools if they let the WCC slip without taking any action.

[Anderis]

Question is who can jump into the 2nd Red Bull and take it to the Mercs and McLarens?

I think the problem is not that Perez is not beating Mercs and McLarens. the problem is that he can't even finish a distant 6th or 7th in every race. He's not bringing the minimum of WCC points that are expected of someone in a car of this quality. FFS 15 points in 6 races while Hulkenberg scores 16 points in 2 races. And I don't think Perez lost any major points due to bad luck in these 6 races. Magnussen crashed into him in Monaco but he was probably not gonna score from such a low qualifying position anyway.

[DutchQuicksilver]

He’s in the same mid season slump as last year. Like someone posted earlier, Kvyat and Gasly were demoted for less. Even though Ricciardo is mediocre at VCARB, I believe he will at least put that car in the top 8 each race and that’s wat counts, because he knows the team.

[Marklar]

I'd kick him out and promote Tsunoda till the season end. If he is good enough he stays, if not external solution.

Meanwhile put Lawson or Iwasa in the vacant RB seat alongside Ricciardo. For 2025 you can then decide who to retain, especially with Hadjar then also in the mix.

But I fear they will do the same as the other times and simply put the demoted driver into the sister team. I also suspect they will promote Ricciardo instead of Yuki to soften the marketing blow.

[garoidb]

He's in the hardest seat in motorsport IMO. Up against one of the best of all time, the performance gap is always going to be big even in a team that's completely even handed. Add on Red Bull being* totally focused on Verstappen, and a big gap becomes even larger.

 

Then add on the field closing up so much this season, and a big time gap suddenly becomes a big positions deficit. And it starts to look dreadful.

 

Then add on the pressure that comes with repeated underperformance that looks dreadful and you get even worse performance. And it starts to look clownish.

 

Red Bull's challenge is who do you replace him with, given all of the above? They know from what happened with Gasly and Albon that this seat isn't for a young guy at the start of his career. You come in wanting/needing to prove yourself, and all of the factors above make it look like you're not F1 material, and your confidence goes and you're young and it nearly ends a career before it's even started.

 

This is IMO why they have gone with Ricciardo at VCARB over Lawson. He's at a stage of his career where, similar to Perez, the plan is "he'll be ok with it - he's at the back end of his career, happy to be in F1 with the potential to pick up regular podiums and perhaps even the odd race win. He'll be fine with being dominated by his team mate". So they could put him in that seat. Not convinced they get particularly better performance, though.

 

My guess is they roll the dice with Ricciardo mid-season, with Lawson subbing in at VCARB. Then things improve a bit for the second seat initially, but there's still a big gap in performance and points, and then next year it's kind of the same as this year.

 

Or they do something like make a move for Bottas for next year?

 

*rightly and understandably - he's earned it

 

Your post expresses my opinion almost exactly. When they have switched drivers before, it hasn't really been about shoring up the constructors championship but now it probably is. They are under pressure on track and losing what should have been a likely WCC could also have internal ramifications. Given that, who could you bring in to achieve that goal? I agree it shouldn't be a young newbie, even though it could work. Ricciardo could do a bit better than Sergio, and he would accept a supporting role (maybe more than Sergio did, even). His future is entirely dependent on what the Red Bull organisation wants to give him, and all sorts of future post-driving roles could also be possible. 

 

Edit: the fact that putting Ricciardo in would presumably also move Lawson up to the VCARB seat is also a positive and could be the longer term future.

Edited by garoidb, 08 July 2024 - 10:09.

[SenorSjon]

Crosspost from the British GP thread, but Perez was given a FL-stop to prevent McLaren having it.

 

Perez stopped for a FL attempt. With used softs, he got a 1.29.7.

 

It was only the 6th fastest lap of the day while he and Sainz were the only ones with a dedicated pitstop for this. Sainz won it with a 1:28.3. Piastri and Verstappen were 4,5 and 6,5 tenths behind that without having stopped for softs.

[F1Frog]

I think, since Monaco 2023, he is performing worse than Albon and Gasly ever did. And that is without the caveat that they were inexperienced so likely to improve when given more time.

 

It would be crazy to keep him in 2025. Considering Verstappen doesn't want Sainz in the same team, any of Bottas, Gasly, Ocon, Albon, Ricciardo, Tsunoda, Hulkenberg would be an improvement and are probably all available to be bought out of their contracts.

[RPM40]

Ricciardo would be a substantial upgrade, I don’t really see what they have to lose.

If he doesn’t perform, then they can reconsider and take action.

It’s practically impossible to be worse than Perez is driving right now

[absinthedude]

I've not been following the season anything like closely....has his form dropped off after the Monaco crash? looking at Wikipedia, he certainly seemed to be performing well up to and including Miami. But he didn't do especially well at Imola and seems to have taken a nose-dive after Monaco with some truly shocking qualifying performances and not being able to claw his way back up the field in the races.

 

I mean, we all know he's capable of far better than this. Something isn't right, and it's not simply a case of "Checo is rubbish" because we know he's not. 

[SenorSjon]

Ricciardo would be a substantial upgrade, I don’t really see what they have to lose.

If he doesn’t perform, then they can reconsider and take action.

It’s practically impossible to be worse than Perez is driving right now

 

It is very odd to pass up on Tsunoda while he has been better in all metrics

 

https://f1bytes.com/2024-h2h-ric-tsu/

[JimmyClark]

I'd kick him out and promote Tsunoda till the season end. If he is good enough he stays, if not external solution.

Meanwhile put Lawson or Iwasa in the vacant RB seat alongside Ricciardo. For 2025 you can then decide who to retain, especially with Hadjar then also in the mix.

This is by far the most sensible solution, so therefore it won't happen.

It would give Red Bull a good idea of whether Yuki has a future in the main team or not, and it can't exactly go worse than Checo's last few races.

But I presume there are commercial considerations that make dropping him so soon a bit more difficult.

[Benchulo]

Verstappen 119
Norris 88
Hamilton 83
Piastri 83
Russell 74
Sainz 63
Leclerc 52
Perez 15

McLaren - 171
Mercedes - 157
Red Bull - 134
Ferrari - 115

This is how the standings look, if the last 6 races are counted.

If Perez can't regain his form, Red Bull could even end up third in the constructor's.

I also wonder if Red Bull actually wants to finish 3rd, so they could get more wind tunnel time for next season.

Edited by Benchulo, 08 July 2024 - 10:15.

[gowebber]

Dan is the logical option at this point with his experience and sum of what he brings. He's a known quantity in the RBR and a safe pair of hands. No way is he crashing every other week and in the gravel etc. His recent form overall has been on a good trajectory and was beating Yuki before Silverstone in the previous 3 races. His peak results are better too with 3x4th and 1x5th. The qualli difference between them was only barely a tenth as well. Dan gets along well with Max and is a good team player and is part of the Red Bull family. He also likes a similar car setup to Max.

Lawson while decent so far is a relatively unknown quantity and was slower than Dan vs Yuki which Laster pointed out in his solid analysis in the Vcarb forum.

Yuki isn't in the running due to Honda connection mostly it seems.

Edited by gowebber, 08 July 2024 - 10:37.

[jcbc3]

What I think: Perez stay the season and is out then,

 

What I hope will happen:

 

Horner comes grovelling to Yuki after Spa and say: "I know I haven't been too complimentary about you previously, but we need your help. Could you please come drive for us after the break"?

Yuki says: "Nah, I'm good"

[Secretariat]

I supported a rationale for Perez retaining the seat, but the season for him cannot continue like this.

[SophieB]

Kvyat and Gasly were demoted for less.

They were indeed booted out, as was Albon. Problem is, although one way of looking at that potential vacancy is that you’re in a car capable of winning the Championship, another way of looking it is that Red Bull might as well be using that second Red Bull seat as a mincer for driver careers. I suspect this perception might have helped Perez hang on for as long as he has.

[Gareth]

They are under pressure on track and losing what should have been a likely WCC could also have internal ramifications.

Kind of interested in how they might view this nowadays tbh.

 

The big plus of the WCC was the prize money link. But in the budget cap era, do Red Bull need that prize money? They'd spend more on F1, if they could, for performance ...

 

The other link to WCC now is things like wind tunnel time. So effectively winning the WDC whilst doing as badly as possible in the WCC is a form of spending money for performance ... ?

[F1Frog]

I cannot believe for a second that a team would give up a WCC position for a slightly better chance in the next WCC.

1st in 2024 and 2nd in 2025 is the same as 2nd in 2024 and 1st in 2025, but you do not guarantee winning the next one by having slightly more wind tunnel time.

[Joseki]

It is very odd to pass up on Tsunoda while he has been better in all metrics

 

https://f1bytes.com/2024-h2h-ric-tsu/

I think Tsunoda is gonna leave the RB family as soon as Honda switches to AM.

[Marklar]

They were indeed booted out, as was Albon. Problem is, although one way of looking at that potential vacancy is that you’re in a car capable of winning the Championship, another way of looking it is that Red Bull might as well be using that second Red Bull seat as a mincer for driver careers. I suspect this perception might have helped Perez hang on for as long as he has.

When a lot of people aggresively demanded Merc to kick Bottas out (for far less) and everyone pointed at how he would have been dropped at RBR I said it's very different if you have the best/dominant car because you dont like to change the status quo if things go well (RBR also didnt drop a often poorly, albeit far better than Perez performing Webber out despite having strong drivers in the sister team). I suspect besides the Mexican Merch and the lack of really outstanding talent (Lindblad might be the next, but he is 16) this helps Perez a lot, but obviously he is beyond poor and RBR is no longer dominant now.

Edited by Marklar, 08 July 2024 - 10:29.

[PayasYouRace]

What I said last year:

Not sure I’ll bother doing the numbers for Abu Dhabi, but I do hope Checo gets his act together a bit better next year and has a 2022 type of season. If Red Bull aren’t as far ahead as they were this year, he’ll be toast if he can’t step back up to what we know he’s capable of.

[SenorSjon]

Verstappen 119
Norris 88
Hamilton 83
Piastri 83
Russell 74
Sainz 63
Leclerc 52
Perez 15

McLaren - 171
Mercedes - 157
Red Bull - 134
Ferrari - 115

This is how the standings look, if the last 6 races are counted.

If Perez can't regain his form, Red Bull could even end up third in the constructor's.

I also wonder if Red Bull actually wants to finish 3rd, so they could get more wind tunnel time for next season.

 

 

Hulkenberg 16

Perez 15

Stroll 14

Alonso 12

[garoidb]

They were indeed booted out, as was Albon. Problem is, although one way of looking at that potential vacancy is that you’re in a car capable of winning the Championship, another way of looking it is that Red Bull might as well be using that second Red Bull seat as a mincer for driver careers. I suspect this perception might have helped Perez hang on for as long as he has.

 

Agree. Unlike the others, Perez was a known quantity and had survived in F1 for many years, including eventually winning a race. It was a relatively normal F1 signing, unlike most of what Red Bull had been doing previously. Gareth's point above that the seat probably calls for a mature driver who can see beyond having to beat Max and can still contribute strong points and input into the team, is probably correct IMO.

 

If the premise of this thread holds true and Sergio leaves F1 soon, then he has had an above average F1 career in terms of success and duration. 

[baddog]

Its kind of sad, but right now today he probably IS performing the worst of any driver on the grid,.

[noikeee]

I think we're getting to the point where he's driving so slow there's not enough hats in all of Mexico to pay for it.

[Gareth]

I cannot believe for a second that a team would give up a WCC position for a slightly better chance in the next WCC.

1st in 2024 and 2nd in 2025 is the same as 2nd in 2024 and 1st in 2025, but you do not guarantee winning the next one by having slightly more wind tunnel time.

Giving up a WCC position for a slightly better chance in the next WDC is the theory, though.

[garoidb]

Kind of interested in how they might view this nowadays tbh.

 

The big plus of the WCC was the prize money link. But in the budget cap era, do Red Bull need that prize money? They'd spend more on F1, if they could, for performance ...

 

The other link to WCC now is things like wind tunnel time. So effectively winning the WDC whilst doing as badly as possible in the WCC is a form of spending money for performance ... ?

 

That's interesting and, in a typically F1 way, convoluted. This year the WDC is in good shape for Red Bull and Max, but normally you would want Sergio taking points off the other drivers as much as possible, while following Max home. Only in a year like this, where your lead driver is really nailing it, could you think of strategically dropping places in the WCC. I still think its a kind of rot that you don't want to let set in, though, and the owners might perceive a brand advantage from winning both titles and also from having two winning drivers. 

[LolaB0860]

Ricciardo is about as useless as Perez is, but I don't understand why they keep on downplaying Tsunoda all the time. Just use him in the main team seat for the rest of the season and see how it goes. Put Lawson to Cash Scam seat.

[DeKnyff]

Kvyat and Gasly were demoted for less.

 

Yeah, but Red Bull were not fighting for Championships then and they could do "experiments". Now, it would only make sense to change Pérez if his substitute scored more points, but this is not a given when you arrive to a team in the middle of the season and anyway, they have no stellar driver to promote. Tsunoda and Ricciardo have both passed through Pérez-like phases and Lawson is too little tested.

[Gareth]

Tsunoda has been the better of the two VCARB drivers in the VCARB, imo.

 

I don't think he would be the better one in the RBR. Ricciardo has experience of the pressure of running at the front, and the understanding of what he's letting himself in for as a team mate to Max.

 

I don't think Tsunoda has anything like the resilience/mental strength to take this on.

[Clatter]

Dropping back in the WCC might not be that bad a thing. Would give them extra tunnel time and Cfd time, which could be useful next year with 2026 designs being the priority.

Edited by Clatter, 08 July 2024 - 11:03.

[NotAPineapple]

I think they will see out the year with him. They can keep the performance clauses in their pocket as long as the want until they find a better solution.

The car has so little stability margin that almost noone apart from Max can consistently drive it at the limits. It's almost certain, that any other driver will suffer the same issues. Especially Ricciardo who is famously unable to drive around car issues.

[Taxi]

Assess Bottas, if he can cope with front end cars buy him for half a season. He's still pretty fast in quali and will bring points and podiums. Perez is now totaly lost. Or if you want to take risks, buy Ocon for half a season. Don't know. But do something. 

[Myrvold]

Assess Bottas, if he can cope with front end cars buy him for half a season. He's still pretty fast in quali and will bring points and podiums. Perez is now totaly lost. Or if you want to take risks, buy Ocon for half a season. Don't know. But do something.

Ocon and Verstappen in the same team?

It will make Ocon and Gasly look like... Schumacher and Irvine in terms of friendliness.

[ensign14]

I've not been following the season anything like closely....has his form dropped off after the Monaco crash? looking at Wikipedia, he certainly seemed to be performing well up to and including Miami. But he didn't do especially well at Imola and seems to have taken a nose-dive after Monaco with some truly shocking qualifying performances and not being able to claw his way back up the field in the races.

 

I mean, we all know he's capable of far better than this. Something isn't right, and it's not simply a case of "Checo is rubbish" because we know he's not. 

 

Presumably his style is so incompatible with Verstappen's that development now is solely for the latter, now there's a more real threat to his title runs, and Perez is all at sea as a result.

 

I'd kick him out and promote Tsunoda till the season end. If he is good enough he stays, if not external solution.

Meanwhile put Lawson or Iwasa in the vacant RB seat alongside Ricciardo. For 2025 you can then decide who to retain, especially with Hadjar then also in the mix.
 

 

I assume that Marketing will suggest that it's either Tsunoda or Iwasa in RB teams - not both.

[Gareth]

Assess Bottas, if he can cope with front end cars buy him for half a season. He's still pretty fast in quali and will bring points and podiums. Perez is now totaly lost. Or if you want to take risks, buy Ocon for half a season. Don't know. But do something. 

Bottas for next year I can understand. Think he fits the criteria for a partner to Max. This season, what's in it for Sauber? Doesn't feel like something RB would throw $ at (given they'd come off their cost cap budget, as buying a driver is not exempt (only driver salary is) I think?).

 

Ocon playing second fiddle to Max sounds like a very bad idea indeed to me.

 

What I do wonder about is why they didn't go for Sainz? Only thing I can think is that he turned them down (that would, IMO, be the right move on his part if he did).

[Nemo1965]

Tsunoda has been the better of the two VCARB drivers in the VCARB, imo.

I don't think he would be the better one in the RBR. Ricciardo has experience of the pressure of running at the front, and the understanding of what he's letting himself in for as a team mate to Max.

I don't think Tsunoda has anything like the resilience/mental strength to take this on.

This. Ricciardo also has nothing to lose. Plus: he’s probably one of the few drivers who can handle the extremely pointy Red Bull (which makes Perez seem worse than he is). Tsunoda would be pressured to be the best teammate Verstappen ever had, that is who he is. Laudable, but imho not possible for him.

[PayasYouRace]

What I think: Perez stay the season and is out then,

What I hope will happen:

Horner comes grovelling to Yuki after Spa and say: "I know I haven't been too complimentary about you previously, but we need your help. Could you please come drive for us after the break"?
Yuki says: "Nah, I'm good"

Why would Yuki pass up the opportunity to drive for the top team?

[SophieB]

Yes, Bottas would be a good shout. If nothing else, in terms of potential drama, he’s the equivalent of an inert gas. Which I hasten to add is a compliment from a hiring point of view in my eyes!