60 replies to this topic

[Frood]

It's been less than three months since the previous thread, and the overwhelming favourite there – Oscar Piastri – proved the masses right as he became the 115th World Championship Grand Prix winner. Not without incident, mind you, but that's best left to another thread.

 

Here are your correct guessers from last time out. I'm not listing all those who got the double because I value my time:

 

 

 

With Piastri now removing himself from this list, I think this one will be very open indeed. There's no-one personally who stands out for me, and it all may depend on who ends up in the second Red Bull (if it isn't Daniel Ricciardo) and who ends up next to George Russell at Mercedes. As always, I've included the current drivers without a win, any reserves who may be in with a shot, the current top 5 in the F2 championship (plus 6th place, whom I have an inkling may be a popular choice...) and the current F3 leader. Give it your best shot!

Edited by Frood, 21 July 2024 - 15:22.

[Ruusperi]

who ends up in the second Red Bull (if it isn't Daniel Ricciardo) and who ends up next to George Russell at Mercedes.

Won't answer the poll until I know the names of those 2 drivers.

[pacificquay]

I’ve gone for Liam Lawson 

[1player]

I'm not seeing any of these as a potential race winner tbh

[Frood]

I forgot the choice of year, which I've added now.

[Frood]

I'm not seeing any of these as a potential race winner tbh

 

Who do you think it'll be, then? The only other drivers I'd have in mind not on this list are Arvid Lindblad and, if we really have a lean few years, Freddie Slater.

[Muppetmad]

Antonelli, 2025. Yup, I'm just putting it out there – perhaps we can laugh about this next year when he's not even on the grid 

[SilverArrow31]

I love it when we get a new one of these threads!

[PayasYouRace]

Now this is tough because all of this year’s potential winners have won now, so we’re going to need some shaking up.

[AlexPrime]

Stroll in 2026 rocket Aston 

[jonklug]

Honestly, Antonelli in 2025 if Mercedes take him. I am convinced now, the kid has potential.

[Brawn BGP 001]

Antonelli if he gets the Merc, if not we won't have one until 2026 at the earliest.

Edited by Brawn BGP 001, 21 July 2024 - 15:47.

[1player]

Stroll in 2026 rocket Aston 

Of those listed it doesn't seem so crazy. It could be more likely than a Maldonado, Gasly or Ocon win.

[Tiakumosan]

Who’s McLaren reserve driver? Mick?

[Spillage]

Antonelli, Mercedes, 2026.

[KWSN - DSM]

I am rolling the dice with Hulkenberg in 2027.

[Frood]

Who’s McLaren reserve driver? Mick?

 

Pato O'Ward and Ryo Hirakawa.

[NewMrMe]

Who’s McLaren reserve driver? Mick?

 

Ryo Hirakawa or Pato O'Ward apparently. Hirakawa was World Endurance champion for Toyota with Sebastien Buemi and Brendan Harley in 2022 and 2023.

[Afterburner]

I haven’t voted in the last two apparently but I don’t think Lance Stroll winning in a fast Aston is that crazy an idea. He’s already got a pole and a handful of podiums in cars worse relative to their competition than this year’s McLaren for example, and has experience leading and running at the front in the rain in multiple races, some of which he could’ve won had things fallen differently. He’s been off-form lately, but if they were to nail the car, who’s to say he couldn’t turn up on one of those crazy days?

I suppose Hulkenberg is the other best option. All the others are unknown quantities. I’d pick Alex Palou over any of them were he to be drafted into a top team as a super-sub.

[KavB]

Antonelli in 2026 or 2027. 

 

Can't see any of the current non-winners taking a win, though I would love if Hulkenberg managed to do it.

[Anderis]

I’d pick Alex Palou over any of them were he to be drafted into a top team as a super-sub.

I don't get this Palou hype. What he's shown in GP3 or F3 European Championship didn't really paint him as F1 material. He's quick in the U.S., yes, but so was Bourdais and it didn't translate to F1 at all. F1 has been a series for pure F1 specialists for some time now and success outside the F1 ladder is not a predictor of success in F1.

 

And then he's supposed to win in F1 not even as a regular driver but as a sub? Very unlikely, I would say. We can see with Perez that even regular F1 specialists can struggle for pace in a top team, let alone someone who has had 0 F1 races at the age of 27 and less than a stellar record in F1 feeder series. Pretty sure he's not among top3-4 most likely drivers to be the next F1 winner. I'm very surprised to see him inserted into the conversation.
 

[Afterburner]

I don't get this Palou hype. What he's shown in GP3 or F3 European Championship didn't really paint him as F1 material. He's quick in the U.S., yes, but so was Bourdais and it didn't translate to F1 at all. F1 has been a series for pure F1 specialists for some time now and success outside the F1 ladder is not a predictor of success in F1.

And then he's supposed to win in F1 not even as a regular driver but as a sub? Very unlikely, I would say. We can see with Perez that even regular F1 specialists can struggle for pace in a top team, let alone someone who has had 0 F1 races at the age of 27 and less than a stellar record in F1 feeder series. Pretty sure he's not among top3-4 most likely drivers to be the next F1 winner. I'm very surprised to see him inserted into the conversation.

It’s not just that he’s quality in IndyCar—he was within two tenths of Norris on his only representative lap in the outing he had at COTA.

He’s got a champion’s mindset too. More so than Norris anyway…

[OvDrone]

I eagerly await this thread right after a maiden win, maybe even more than the maiden win itself somehow    Thank you Frood for always building it up.

This one will especially be more compelling, as we went through all the recent reserves of great new winners like - Gasly, Ocon, Russell, Sainz Jr, Norris & Piastri. 

I went with Lawson in 2025. But I wouldn't blink twice if it's any other version of it playing out.




Maybe SATTTTOOOOO!!!!!!1 is actually the best answer now.

[geralt]

Now that there are 4 top teams well ahead of the midfield, I guess it's impossible for a random win like Gasly or Ocon right?

[PayasYouRace]

Gonna go for the Ollie Bearman in a couple of years option.

[eibyyz]

Lawson.  Red Bull won't forget how to racecraft all of a sudden, I picked 2026 but I really think it'll be next year, honestly.

[eibyyz]

Gonna go for the Ollie Bearman in a couple of years option.

 

When he replaces HAM, or when HAAS get it together? <g>

[PayasYouRace]

When he replaces HAM, or when HAAS get it together? <g>

Post Hamilton or Leclerc.

[FirstnameLastname]

Stroll in the Newey Honda AN01

2026

[Marklar]

Will be almost certainly Antonelli. Question is just what year, I went for 2026 as I dont expect him next year (if he gets the seat) to outperform Russell often enough to actually get ever the chance at victory, but who knows.

I can honestly see Lance Stroll in 2026 as well, if Aston Martin's recent activities translate into results with the rule changes. His team mate will be either a even more aged Alonso (who he is already matching) or someone like Tsunoda (who is also a good bet, either due to the AM option but also should he ever be considered at RBR), all doable.

I'm surprised that Lindblad is not listed. I can see Marko getting pissed off enough with all his drivers to put him into a F1 car at some point next year.

Edited by Marklar, 21 July 2024 - 22:09.

[JimmyClark]

This is difficult now. Antonelli or Tsunoda I think. I'll vote for Yuki.

[DW46]

Antonelli on debut en route to a stunning rookie title win in 2025 at Merc 😎

[ANF]

It's probably going to be Kimi Antonelli in the Mercedes in 2026 unless they install Liam Lawson in the Red Bull before that.

So two-thirds of the regular F1 drivers have won a race? Has there ever been that many race winners on the grid?

[Risil]

I don't get this Palou hype. What he's shown in GP3 or F3 European Championship didn't really paint him as F1 material. He's quick in the U.S., yes, but so was Bourdais and it didn't translate to F1 at all. F1 has been a series for pure F1 specialists for some time now and success outside the F1 ladder is not a predictor of success in F1.

 

And then he's supposed to win in F1 not even as a regular driver but as a sub? Very unlikely, I would say. We can see with Perez that even regular F1 specialists can struggle for pace in a top team, let alone someone who has had 0 F1 races at the age of 27 and less than a stellar record in F1 feeder series. Pretty sure he's not among top3-4 most likely drivers to be the next F1 winner. I'm very surprised to see him inserted into the conversation.

 

Bourdais was about the same amount of quick in Europe as the US.

[Risil]

So two-thirds of the regular F1 drivers have won a race? Has there ever been that many race winners on the grid?

 

Good question. 62.5% of the 1967 Monaco Grand Prix field were Grand Prix winners by the end of that race. Jo Siffert, Jochen Rindt and Chris Amon were among those who weren't, at the time. Another Grand Prix winner, Richie Ginther, failed to qualify. That's the conventional all-killer-no-filler grid.

[Beri]

Antonelli on debut en route to a stunning rookie title win in 2025 at Merc

 

Id sign up for that.

[TauriJ]

Paul Aron 2026

[Joseki]

Stroll 2025 driving an improved AM in a crazy race of attrition.

The Gasly/Ocon type of win.

 

 

I don't think Antonelli will be in the Mercedes next year.

Edited by Joseki, 22 July 2024 - 10:07.

[WonderWoman61]

Hard to tell at the moment

[Dara]

Albon in 2026 when Williams has a rocket ship.

[PlatenGlass]

I was the first person in the previous thread to vote for Piastri. Everyone else just copied me.

[Myrvold]

Antonelli, 2025. Yup, I'm just putting it out there – perhaps we can laugh about this next year when he's not even on the grid 

 

I went for Antonelli in 2026.

 

I did the double with Piastri, so why not risk a bit now!

[Sterzo]

Nico Hulkenberg, 2024 at Singapore when a power cut in a thunderstorm puts the lights out, and he picks his way past the crashed and spun before they find an old flag and a torch to wave.

[H0R]

Rarely have I been more clueless who could be the next winner. Maybe one of the third drivers of the top teams? Mick, Pato, Bearman or whoever it might be at Red Bull. Would be a long shot though.

[rodlamas]

Voted Hulkenberg this year. We are overdue a chaotic race with a totally unexpected race winner.

[ATM]

Not since Panis în 1996 was a race that chaotic that a lower midfielder car actually won it. I'm counting Perez's 2020 win out; that Force India was legit fast.
If I were to nominate somebody, I guess it would have to be the 2nd RBR seat, if it gets taken by Lawson or Yuki (Danny Ric doesn't count, he already won several).

[PayasYouRace]

Not since Panis în 1996 was a race that chaotic that a lower midfielder car actually won it. I'm counting Perez's 2020 win out; that Force India was legit fast.
If I were to nominate somebody, I guess it would have to be the 2nd RBR seat, if it gets taken by Lawson or Yuki (Danny Ric doesn't count, he already won several).

Ligier were 6th in the WCC in 1996. So that’s equivalent to Vettel for Toro Rosso in 2006. It’s also better than Fisichella for Jordan in 2003 (9th), Maldonado for Williams in 2012 (8th) and Gasly for AlphaTauri in 2020 (7th).

 

I think you’re underselling the chances of a surprise victory, especially given how close F1 in nowadays.

[Boxerevo]

Now we have a challenge.

[MikeTekRacing]

Antonelli? (yeah, i know he's not signed yet..)

[PlatenGlass]

Not since Panis în 1996 was a race that chaotic that a lower midfielder car actually won it. I'm counting Perez's 2020 win out; that Force India was legit fast.
If I were to nominate somebody, I guess it would have to be the 2nd RBR seat, if it gets taken by Lawson or Yuki (Danny Ric doesn't count, he already won several).

I don't know about lower midfield specifically (I'd have to go back and check the pecking orders) but Herbert at Nurburgring 1999, and Ocon and Gasly's more recent wins were not remotely predictable based on form. Oh and Fisichella at Brazil in 2003.

Edit - Didn't notice PAYR's post.

Edited by PlatenGlass, 23 July 2024 - 21:41.