801 replies to this topic

[PayasYouRace]

I want to gauge the opinions in the room here. Much of the discussion around McLaren’s team orders fiasco in Hungary has developed around whether those extra 7 points would be crucial to Lando’s title challenge.

 

Personally, I don’t think he is, realistically. I think Max has far too healthy a lead and he will certainly win a few more races this season. McLaren are strong but the gap is just too big. Unless Max has an extremely unlikely run of DNFs, or misses some races, he’s got it down up.

 

But what do you all think?

[Risil]

11 races to go. So in 1996 terms we're at the San Marino Grand Prix.

 

Lando is three full wins behind -- a big climb but possible if Red Bull is really the third-fastest car now.

 

My gut feeling says no he's not, but sport can surprise you.

[jonklug]

No and I think it's clear McLaren don't think so either.

[GoldenColt]

No and I believe McLaren tend to agree with that assumption. 

[Yamamoto]

If it was the other way around, Norris with the lead and Max with a car that was showing the ability to win at any given circuit, then I would say there was a title fight. So whilst I don't really expect Norris to get any closer, the difference between those two scenarios in my head is the identity of the drivers rather than anything else about the situation.

[LB]

Of course he is there are 11 races to go if he wins every race he wins the championship if my maths head is screwed on right.

[Gareth]

Of course he is.

 

He probably needs a near perfect 11 races from the McLaren side, and at least one or two Red Bull/Max cock ups - so it's a low percentage shot - but there's definitely a chance.

 

If McLaren had made the right strategy calls in Canada, Spain, and Great Britain he'd be about 20 points behind and probably the favourite to win. So it's clearly possible.

[Miles749]

I think he is but that he will be out of it soon as Verstappen will get some good results and Norris will get some bad ones. But it can change quickly. 

 

I only wonder how lucky Verstappen was in Austria (crash that leaves him in P5 and Norris retires) and in Hungary (crash with Hamilton with no damage to either car). That is 20 points that he won by pure luck of car not breaking completely. If we add in that Norris could have won Austria, that is about 20-25 points that Verstappen has more than Norris because of it.

[Anja]

It's far from impossible but I'm not getting my hopes up. Some people assume Lando can easily finish ahead of Max almost every race until the end of the season but it's very naive thinking - yesterday was just the 4th time it happened this season! McLaren would have to be in a truly dominant position, and they're not - maybe they're the fastest right now but not by a huge margin and we have 4 truly competitive teams so there's a lot more variables than there would be in a straight McLaren vs Red Bull fight. 

Edited by Anja, 22 July 2024 - 09:29.

[Claudius]

I don’t think so. Lando has also Oscar and Mercs that can challenge him from time to time. Not to mention RB can come back in the races to come.
If Lando has a few bad races while Max gets better results, it’s over. Unless more DNF:s for Max.

[PayasYouRace]

11 races to go. So in 1996 terms we're at the San Marino Grand Prix.

 

Lando is three full wins behind -- a big climb but possible if Red Bull is really the third-fastest car now.

 

My gut feeling says no he's not, but sport can surprise you.

I see what you’re doing, couching it in 1996 terms for me. 

 

But are you saying Michael was still in the hunt at Imola, or that Damon would have still been in the hunt if Michael had won the first four races that year?

[AlexPrime]

In my opinion you are in contention until math says you aren't. F1 history proved that massive swings are possible, for example the 2012 season was pretty crazy in that regard, 2017 and 2018 are another example, and of course there are extreme cases like 1976 and 1999. There are of course seasons in which the leader manages to protect his early lead, like 2005, 2006 and 2009, but it's not a guarantee. 

[Risil]

I see what you’re doing, couching it in 1996 terms for me. 

 

But are you saying Michael was still in the hunt at Imola, or that Damon would have still been in the hunt if Michael had won the first four races that year?

 

1996 is a bad example of course because the Williams was good at the start, good in the middle and good at the end! Whereas what's not controversial is that McLaren will need a quicker car than Red Bull for the rest of the year for Lando to make up the ground. This isn't the kind of points deficit that can be overcome with some clever strategy calls or good racecraft alone.

 

11 races to go in 2005 gets us to the US Grand Prix, where Raikkonen was 22 points down on Alonso with a quicker car. In 1998 it gets us to the Monaco Grand Prix with Michael Schumacher 22 points off Hakkinen.

[JimmyClark]

He must be. We are only [just over] halfway through the season, so in theory the lead Max built up can be reduced by the same amount. If McLaren stay as the fastest car, then Lando only needs an average of 7 points a race more than Max and the title is his. 

 

Red Bull's internal struggles are starting to manifest themselves on the track, Max will need an engine change, and he doesn't really have a wingman (unlike Lando, and Oscar owes him a lot now), so you can quite easily see it being possible. 

Edited by JimmyClark, 22 July 2024 - 09:31.

[Risil]

What I do feel strongly about is that McLaren need to behave as if they're in a championship fight. Even if in retrospect this season turns out to have been a dry run for 2025, they need to make all their mistakes and find their weaknesses now.

[noriaki]

I think it's entirely doable, if McLaren keeps the ball on their court and remains consistently the best car -- the calendar is long enough and Max can't even have faith to score P3 every time because there are well enough Mercedes & Ferrari cars to cause him extra headache whenever Red Bull struggles

[Stoffel]

Only if Verstappen has one or two DNFs, which isn't entirely unrealistic if he keeps suffering from his good old red mist syndrome.

Edited by Stoffel, 22 July 2024 - 09:39.

[Ali623]

I mean, he needs to start winning races first, before worrying about any potential championship charge. He’s only won one race so far this season, and even that was largely down to SC luck.

The only way it’s likely in my opinion, is if McLaren are the clear dominant team and perform like they did in Hungary for the rest of the season.

[f1rules]

Theoreticly: Yes   Reality: No  Unless Max keep acting like this when not having the fastest car, then it could get interesting

[TheFish]

No one has ever closed a gap that big surely? Even factoring in the points differences. Would take a Lauda style crash to allow a Hunt style victory.

Without Max being out of action for a while, it would take something extraordinary and we’ve seen McLaren aren’t at that level.

[Clrnc]

I think the key is about Mercedes and Ferrari improving and taking points off RB. The reduction in wind tunnel time is a severe penalty for RB after the cost cap breach and others has all caught up. If Lewis, Russell, Leclerc and Piastri can all make things difficult for Max in races and you know how hot headed Max is in battles, there's chances of DNFs.

Let's not forget RB brought in their biggest upgrades to Hungary and Merc is still as fast as them and even Leclerc challenged Max at one point.

[jonklug]

No one has ever closed a gap that big surely? Even factoring in the points differences. Would take a Lauda style crash to allow a Hunt style victory.

Without Max being out of action for a while, it would take something extraordinary and we’ve seen McLaren aren’t at that level.

 

Are you being for real right now? That's messed up, I would never wish that on anyone, wtf. 

[Nobody]

If we are asking the question then surely yes

[Pingguest]

In case he is actually in a championship fight, I guess he will lose the title by just 7 points. 

[Alan Lewis]

Are you being for real right now? That's messed up, I would never wish that on anyone, wtf.

What a ridiculous overreaction. The Fish was clearly not wishing for any such thing.

[Ben1980]

No, because while the Mckaren is quick, so is the RB and the Merc, they will all battle it out.

The early wins for Max secured the title. But Lando or Mclaren aren't so standout you would expect them to win all races. I'd expect Max to win in Spa anyway.

[MJB5990]

Realistically, no.

 

Lando has had either the fastest or very-close to the fastest car for six out of the last seven races. He's not won any. There are reasons and mitigating circumstances around that and that's fine but either way, he's not managed to take enough points. Why should I believe that will change over the next 7 or even 11 to the end of the season?

 

In that period, Max has scored 120 points - Lando has scored 99. Yes, Austria. But still, it's not enough. Red Bull may not have the best car anymore, but they still have someone in Max who will be getting first call on everything. Lando, as seen yesterday, doesn't look like he'll be getting the same treatment. The gap is 76 points over eleven races so yes, if Lando leads Max home in the last remaining races (sprints and FL's excluded), he can do it mathematically but let's be honest, do I see Lando winning even half of the remaining 11? Based on his recent run, personally, no I don't. 

 

The argument could be had, Mercedes are close, Ferrari might get in the mix occasionally to take points of Max. But they'll also take points off Lando. McLaren have a great car. But the Red Bull still looks likely to be pushing them for quickest at most circuits. 

 

Lando has had a very good season to now. McLaren aswell. But they need to be focused on sharpening up ahead of 2025. If they can continue this trend, Lando can really mount a serious challenge from race one next season but at the minute, the points gap is too big.

[TheFish]

Are you being for real right now? That's messed up, I would never wish that on anyone, wtf.

Would suggest you read my post again.

[Benchulo]

Definitely possible if McLaren and Norris have the desire and ambition. Seems to me, Norris has it, but the team doesn't. McLaren seems to think 2025 is their year. That they can fight for the WDC from the beginning. For me that's quite a strange approach. Is it a given?

If it was Red Bull or Mercedes with the fastest car, 76 points behind with 11 races to go, they would have definitely set their eyes on the WDC. Try to maximise their chances. McLaren seems to have different priorities.

Edited by Benchulo, 22 July 2024 - 10:18.

[AlexPrime]

Definitely possible if McLaren and Norris have the desire and ambition. Seems to me, Norris has it, but the team doesn't. For me that's quite strange approach. McLaren seems to think 2025 is their year. That they can fight for the WDC from the beginning. Is it a given?

If it was Red Bull or Mercedes with the fastest car, 76 points behind with 11 races to go, they would have definitely set their eyes on the WDC. Try to maximise their chances.

But they are McLaren, not Red Bull or Mercedes. Zac said it, they win in their own way, not at all cost. When I said I smelled crap and yesterday proved that I was spectacularly wrong. They're still McLaren. The last of the good guys.

[sofarapartguy]

Regardless of the answer both Lando and McLaren should act like they are indeed in the title hunt.

 

No guarantee they will have such momentum any other season soon and they definitely should not repeat BMW 2008 scenario. When given even slightest opportunity - grab it. The more often McLaren execute a perfect weekend the more often Max is going to drop the ball ramming people off the track. He is far from being mentally stable as we have been reminded once again. 

 

If McLaren can actually quickly iron out all the current issues is another question. Personally I think they are going to botch it big time. 

Edited by sofarapartguy, 22 July 2024 - 10:21.

[SenorSjon]

Yes, only someone needs to tell McLaren that. They lost so many points with the faster car, it is ridiculous. RB can't get their car going and now Ferrari and Mercedes can also keep up with it. So a few wins with Verstappen in 4-6th will have that point gap eradicated quite quickly.

 

Verstappen also needs a new engine due to the failed Canada one and the team has struggled on almost every track now.

[Disgrace]

McLaren in 2024 remind me somewhat of McLaren in 2012. They have the car and the drivers, but their poor operations are likely to inhibit a coherent title challenge.

[baddog]

It would require a complete meltdown from RBR and consistency from driver and (more so) team. So its a big outside chance.

 

WCC is totally up though.

[IrvTheSwerve]

Yep, absolutely. Sure, there's a bit of a gap at the moment but with the amount of races left and McLaren now looking the strongest car, together with RedBull's slight dip in performance, who knows. Max is being dragged into fights now, around the podium fringes...and we all know the potential of contact with other drivers when that happens. All it takes is a DNF for Max and it's all to play for (which could easily have happened this weekend with the Hamilton contact).

 

At the very least, I wouldn't be surprised if Lando finishes the season with less than a 30 point gap to Max in first. 

[Benchulo]

But they are McLaren, not Red Bull or Mercedes. Zac said it, they win in their own way, not at all cost. When I said I smelled crap and yesterday proved that I was spectacularly wrong. They're still McLaren. The last of the good guys.

If it was during when Fernando was at McLaren, Brown would not say that, IMHO.

Edit: I would not say good guys. For example, what they did in Hungary was not a good thing, it was utter incompetency how they treated both their drivers. If they were the good guys, McLaren would not have pestered Norris the way they did, after messing up the pitstop.

Edited by Benchulo, 22 July 2024 - 10:39.

[pacificquay]

Potentially.

 

Which is why Oscar (welcome to his rebrand) now having a win under his belt, should be playing the support act for the rest of the season.

[Stephane]

I say McLaren 1 2 in the end

[Albaforever]

Yes 

[alframsey]

Yes he is but I don't think he stands a chance of winning.

[Joseki]

No for 3 reasons:

1. Norris is making a ton of mistakes and has already gifted Verstappen something close to 50 points

2. Piastri will probably finish ahead of Norris at least 3-4 times in the 11 races remaining

3. Verstappen is fundamentally a much better driver than Norris

 

In the races since McLaren has catched up to Red Bull (since Miami) Norris was massively outscored by Verstappen:

Verstappen 155

Norris 131

Piastri 111

 

Verstappen also already had a mechanical failure while Norris has been blessed by a bulletproof McLaren, but in a 24 races championship problems will realistically happen at some points.

 

Even in Hungary, Verstappen's worst weekend in years and McLaren's best weekend of the season, Verstappen lost only 8 points.

 

Red Bull needs to implode for Norris to have a chance.

Edited by Joseki, 22 July 2024 - 10:46.

[Risil]

McLaren in 2024 remind me somewhat of McLaren in 2012. They have the car and the drivers, but their poor operations are likely to inhibit a coherent title challenge.

Which was the year they attached their front wing incorrectly during preseason testing and set Brawn 2009 level times before realizing their car had been illegal.

[Anderis]

Too early to tell but it's a possibility. One DNF and Verstappen may feel the pressure, he's already made some mistakes in the last few races. It all depends if the current trends in terms of car competitiveness continue for the rest of the season or if it was just a short term reshuffle that will be corrected in the races to come. Going by the trend from the last 2-3 races, it would definetely be possible for Norris to overcome 76 points in 11 races. I would say that between Miami and Silverstone, Verstappen scored more points than his car deserved, good strategy and some luck came to his rescue, but it won't be like that forever. Red Bull need to claw back some deficit if they want to have a calm championship.

 

One thing that still makes me laugh, though, it's how most people expected this season to be Red Bull's total domination, some went as far as saying that Red Bull were going to win all races, but it's half of the season and we've already had SIX different non-Red Bull race winners! Probably one of the most interesting seasons in recent years.

[Risil]

One thing that still makes me laugh, though, it's how most people expected this season to be Red Bull's total domination, some went as far as saying that Red Bull were going to win all races, but it's half of the season and we've already had SIX different non-Red Bull race winners! Probably one of the most interesting seasons in recent years.

 

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

[BertoC]

I'll say no for now. If he wins at Spa, arguably Max and RBR strongest track, I might change to yes.

[Anderis]

It's hard to make predictions, especially about the future

It has always been, and while expecting Red Bull to dominate this season was not a baseless prediction, it's funny how some people were so confident in their assessment that they didn't even see the possibility of Red Bull losing one race out of 24.

[Benchulo]

No for 3 reasons:
1. Norris is making a ton of mistakes and has already gifted Verstappen something close to 50 points
2. Piastri will probably finish ahead of Norris at least 3-4 times in the 11 races remaining
3. Verstappen is fundamentally a much better driver than Norris

1. Verstappen is also prone to mistakes as Austria and Hungary showed. That's 2 in 3 races.

2. McLaren can prioritise Norris, Piastri does not have a realistic chance this season. Like Ferrari prioritised Massa in 2008 over Kimi. And Kimi was the defending champion.

3. Verstappen is arguably a much better driver, but he's not enjoying the current car and close fights, and it seems to get his anger cloud his judgements sometimes, which could happen again.

Edited by Benchulo, 22 July 2024 - 10:58.

[Joseki]

1. Verstappen is also prone to mistakes as Austria and Hungary showed. That's 2 in 3 races.

2. McLaren can prioritise Norris, Piastri does not have a realistic chance.

The key difference is that Norris makes far more costly mistakes. If you sum up Austria and Hungary Verstappan has a net gain 2 points over Norris who should have won both races.

 

For point two, McLaren didn't move Piastri over yesterday, they aren't moving Piastri over in the future either. Also I don't remember any team in F1 history being in the position of potentially having to ask a driver to move over so many times.

We are not talking Hamilton/Bottas or Verstappen/Perez where one driver was sensibly faster than the other, Norris/Piastri the last couple of races have been evenly matched.

Edited by Joseki, 22 July 2024 - 11:02.

[jacdaniel]

Lando definitely has a chance. He has the fastest car now and Red Bull are really really struggling. Potentially even vulnerable to Mercedes and Ferrari.

Max also has to take an engine penalty soon. My bet is Spa or Monza.

If Lando can win even 3 or 4 back to back and Max can only manage P3s and maybe lower with the mentioned penalty, his lead would be more than cut in half.

Absolutely not over yet. But McLaren really need to step up and hope Red Bull continue to fail to find answers

[Muppetmad]

Yes, Norris is in the hunt. If he can string together some wins, with Verstappen having some more wobbles, that gap could close quicker than we think. Will that happen? Who knows.