The standings after Belgium:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Brawn BGP 001 1399 101 2) LB 1396 101 = scheivlak 1396 101 4) KWSN-DSM 1394 92 5) SpaceHorseParty 1393 101 6) Bleu 1391 94 7) Costaz 1389 101 8) mark f1 1387 96 9) LolaB8060 1386 101 10) DutchQuicksilver 1372 84 11) Benchulo 1370 95 12) Makarias 1368 83 13) M2000-5 1366 83 14) GTA 1365 83 15) ANF 1360 87 = polesetter1 1360 101 17) Anderis 1340 74 18) sladealonso 1306 73Still several 101's, but most of us are already losing plenty of points.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Bear INF,8 600,0 18 Hülk 318,6 125,0 18 Magn 123,3 25,0 9 Pias 96,5 62,2 9 Norr 91,0 62,6 4 Sain 67,7 46,7 1 Hami 65,0 55,6 0 Lecl 59,0 47,1 0 Russ 56,3 40,6 0 Tsun 52,0 29,2 2 Vers 51,4 41,8 0 Pere 48,7 38,0 2 Stro 43,9 19,0 1 Alon 33,6 20,3 0 Gasl 17,3 9,1 0 Ocon 15,4 7,6 0 Albo 15,1 7,0 1 Ricc 12,1 6,5 0The McLarens are steadily heading towards expectation fulfillment just like in Hungary, except less.
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Hamilton Piastri Leclerc Verstappen Norris * Potential 388 * Potential 405 * Potential 411 M2000-5 600 * Potential 439 polesetter1 247 * Forecast 266 Benchulo 341 LolaB8060 590 * Forecast 324 ANF 243 Costaz 248 Bleu 331 SpaceHorseParty 550 Costaz 301 SpaceHorseParty 240 ANF 239 GTA 315 Makarias 535 Brawn BGP 001 263 * Forecast 237 Brawn BGP 001 185 ANF 292 Anderis 525 ANF 241 mark f1 230 LB 174 sladealonso 290 DutchQuicksilver525 LB 220 M2000-5 222 scheivlak 174 scheivlak 289 GTA 510 Makarias 211 Costaz 221 Benchulo 172 Brawn BGP 001 283 LB 506 LolaB8060 210 Bleu 215 LolaB8060 170 LB 279 sladealonso 502 Benchulo 209 sladealonso 215 polesetter1 163 * Forecast 276 * Potential 501 GTA 205 Anderis 213 SpaceHorseParty 160 Anderis 274 mark f1 494 DutchQuicksilver201 DutchQuicksilver212 * Current 155 mark f1 270 scheivlak 466 scheivlak 200 Makarias 210 KWSN-DSM 150 Costaz 265 ANF 458 Bleu 195 GTA 207 mark f1 150 KWSN-DSM 250 Costaz 454 polesetter1 191 Benchulo 200 Bleu 148 DutchQuicksilver246 KWSN-DSM 450 mark f1 190 Brawn BGP 001 200 DutchQuicksilver138 Makarias 246 Brawn BGP 001 449 SpaceHorseParty 190 KWSN-DSM 200 M2000-5 138 polesetter1 245 * Forecast 430 * Current 189 LolaB8060 188 Makarias 136 SpaceHorseParty 243 polesetter1 427 M2000-5 188 LB 180 GTA 131 M2000-5 232 Bleu 415 KWSN-DSM 185 scheivlak 180 Anderis 115 LolaB8060 225 Benchulo 336 Anderis 180 * Current 138 sladealonso 100 * Current 161 * Current 251 sladealonso 160Hamilton forecast trending toward a 100% surprise soon?
Guesses on P6-P10:
Sainz Perez Alonso Ocon Ricciardo * Potential 399 * Potential 367 * Potential 298 * Potential 255 * Potential 257 polesetter1 318 LolaB8060 307 Benchulo 236 mark f1 65 ANF 107 Bleu 265 Costaz 300 Makarias 185 KWSN-DSM 50 polesetter1 104 GTA 260 DutchQuicksilver280 Anderis 175 scheivlak 49 Benchulo 94 * Forecast 255 mark f1 280 Bleu 170 LolaB8060 46 Costaz 81 Anderis 231 KWSN-DSM 275 sladealonso 170 LB 39 GTA 60 Benchulo 229 sladealonso 275 DutchQuicksilver156 ANF 38 sladealonso 60 scheivlak 228 M2000-5 273 Brawn BGP 001 153 DutchQuicksilver 37 DutchQuicksilver 59 sladealonso 225 Anderis 265 KWSN-DSM 150 GTA 32 M2000-5 59 mark f1 220 Makarias 265 SpaceHorseParty 150 Anderis 30 LB 57 LB 218 Brawn BGP 001 254 LB 142 Bleu 30 scheivlak 57 Brawn BGP 001 215 SpaceHorseParty 250 scheivlak 142 Benchulo 29 SpaceHorseParty 50 LolaB8060 215 scheivlak 245 GTA 135 M2000-5 29 Bleu 47 Makarias 212 LB 235 polesetter1 132 Brawn BGP 001 26 Brawn BGP 001 47 DutchQuicksilver207 Bleu 218 M2000-5 123 Costaz 25 Makarias 44 M2000-5 201 GTA 212 LolaB8060 105 sladealonso 25 KWSN-DSM 40 KWSN-DSM 200 * Forecast 201 mark f1 100 Makarias 18 mark f1 35 Costaz 191 polesetter1 200 ANF 95 * Forecast 9 LolaB8060 25 SpaceHorseParty 190 * Current 117 * Forecast 82 SpaceHorseParty 8 * Forecast 12 * Current 149 ANF 102 Costaz 49 polesetter1 7 Anderis 12 ANF 135 Benchulo 86 * Current 48 * Current 5 * Current 7Costaz is about to lose points from Alonso sometime soon, but that's still one of the better Alonso guesses this season.
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Costaz 2159,6 -0,3 Brawn BGP 001 2138,9 -7,9 Bleu 2093,3 -10,1 LB 2092,0 -8,3 scheivlak 2082,0 -8,3 mark f1 2067,1 -7,2 GTA 2063,4 -12,9 polesetter1 2055,7 8,7 SpaceHorseParty 2033,9 8,5 ANF 2031,0 10,2 Makarias 2026,0 -16,2 KWSN-DSM 2021,7 -23,1 Anderis 2018,1 -20,2 DutchQuicksilver 2013,0 -11,4 LolaB8060 2011,0 -17,5 sladealonso 1996,1 -18,9 M2000-5 1990,0 -4,2 Benchulo 1906,1 4,2I'm ahead of KWSN in the forecast now, so that's nice.
