I see a lot of discussion about whether Max will have the WDC easily or he has good reason to worry so I wanted to check the numbers. Here’s what I found.
This table matrix shows what happens when Max/Norris gets X amount of points/per race during the remaining ones (10 races remaining). Negative numbers (red) shows Max loses, positive numbers (yellow-green) shows Verstappen is WDC. (and by how many points)
It seems that if Max can average 20+ points per race, then he is WDC no matter what. This is effectively 2nd place in all remaining races + sprints. But he has to worry if he can only average around 10-12 points or lower. Alternatively, Norris needs to average higher than 20-22 points/race to have a realistic chance.
For reference, the highest average/race you can theoretically reach is 28.4/race (by winning all races, sprints and getting all FLs).
This is how some drivers averaged during the past 10 / 5 / 3 races.
There is a strong decreasing trend for Max depending on how recent races we look at, so he can easily fall into his danger zone if Red Bull remains 3rd fastest team for the remaining of the season.At the same time Norris is a bit inconsistent, there is no clear trend for him. Hamilton has been averaging very strongly recently, but he is further 49 points behind to Norris. (so he would need to get 5 points/race better than him to have the same chance by the end).
To summarize, I think Max should be able to fight for the podium each race, even if he has 3rd best car, so even in worst case scenario he should be able to average around 12/race. Which means he is safe, unless Norris finds consistency and start winning races in row. However, if McLaren can further extend their advantage, it should be easier for Norris to get into the 22+ window to make it spicy by the end.
To make it more exciting, this is how table looks if Verstappen gets 1 DNF in remaining races.
