80 replies to this topic

[LolaB0860]

Provisionally after Italy we are at:

 

RBR 446

McLaren 438

Ferrari 407

 

There are 8 Grand Prix and 3 Sprints (= 3 sprints combined is worth of one GP win + fastest lap if you think it that way) left this season.

 

Edited by LolaB0860, 01 September 2024 - 15:10.

[BertoC]

Definitely! Their amazing consistency at the start of the year is paying off now.

[SCUDmissile]

Ask us again after USA

[Massa]

Yes. Next race are Baku and Singapore, IMHO the Ferrari will be the car to have on these track, especially on Sunday.

[George Costanza]

I think so yes.

[George Costanza]

I don't see Red Bull holding on given Sergio's form

[BertoC]

I don't see Red Bull holding on given Sergio's form

Realistically its Mclaren vs Ferrari.

[George Costanza]

Realistically its Mclaren vs Ferrari.

Yes absolutely like 2007-2008.

[H0R]

Red Bull being a one car team can be almost ruled out from the WCC battle. Between McLaren and Ferrari I think Ferrari has the mentally more robust driver pairing. It'll be close. 

[F1Frog]

Somehow yes. They have had the best car once all season (Monaco), a driver lineup that’s good but no better than McLaren or Mercedes, and their fair share of screw-ups. But somehow McLaren’s operational errors and Perez’s lack of points means that yes, Ferrari are very much in the fight.

What a weird and wonderful season it has been!

[garoidb]

Yes absolutely like 2007-2008.

 

... when we were so rudely interrupted for about sixteen years. 

[jonklug]

With all due respect (and I genuinely will always love and respect this team).

 

LOL no

[garoidb]

It would be great to see Charles and Carlos bring home the constructors title before their partnership is dissolved. It would be a great high to finish on. I also really want to see McLaren kept under some pressure for this, and all the better if it is Ferrari who do it. It would also set up the new Charles-Lewis partnership nicely, beginning as constructors champions.

[SophieB]

Verstappen, via Autosport:

 

At the moment, both championships are not realistic," Verstappen bluntly stated.

"I've said a lot and now it's up to the team to come with a lot of changes with the car, because we basically went from a very dominant car to an undriveable car in the space of six to eight months. So, that is very weird for me and we need to really turn the car upside down.

 

"With how we are at the moment we are bad everywhere, so we need a lot of changes."

[KavB]

Yes they are. I don't think they will win it because McLaren are far quicker, but the Ferrari drivers have been stronger than the McLaren drivers so there is a solid chance.

[garoidb]

Yes they are. I don't think they will win it because McLaren are far quicker, but the Ferrari drivers have been stronger than the McLaren drivers so there is a solid chance.

 

The McLaren drivers are both driving for themselves and with different objectives in mind. I wonder if the two Ferrari drivers, given that they are parting ways anyway and not in contention for the drivers title, could co-operate more with this end in mind. It would be a good achievement for Carlos to have on his CV, arguably better than another GP win, especially if he is seen to have been a big contributor. He won't get the chance again for many years.

[Dan333SP]

Hot take- Charles and Carlos in the Mclaren would win both titles. 

[George Costanza]

With all due respect (and I genuinely will always love and respect this team).

LOL no

We shall see. I can't see Red But winning WCC.

[Baddoer]

Verstappen, via Autosport:

 

At the moment, both championships are not realistic," Verstappen bluntly stated.

"I've said a lot and now it's up to the team to come with a lot of changes with the car, because we basically went from a very dominant car to an undriveable car in the space of six to eight months. So, that is very weird for me and we need to really turn the car upside down.

 

"With how we are at the moment we are bad everywhere, so we need a lot of changes."

This looks like its coming from Toto Wolff speaker student

[macjim]

Ferrari are in the WCC hunt, but I'd still see McLaren winning it.

 

McLaren were faster today IMO, they just ran the wrong strategy, I heard Lewis in the pen say that "McLaren went off to fast for a 1 stop..."

[Massa]

Ferrari are in the WCC hunt, but I'd still see McLaren winning it.

McLaren were faster today IMO, they just ran the wrong strategy, I heard Lewis in the pen say that "McLaren went off to fast for a 1 stop..."

So McLaren was too fast for a one stop, but somehow Leclerc could follow them and complete a one stop.

So the fastest car won today

[PayasYouRace]

A genuine three-way fight? Bring it on!

[DeKnyff]

Yes.

 

McLaren was 42 points behind after Spa and two races later they are virtually on pair. Ferrari is now 39 points behind, so it's perfectly possible. However, while I believe Ferrari can catch Red Bull, McLaren will be much more difficult.

[macjim]

So McLaren was too fast for a one stop, but somehow Leclerc could follow them and complete a one stop.

So the fastest car won today

While he tried to initially follow Oscar, he dropped off and preserved the tyres - Tortoise and Hare.

Edited by macjim, 01 September 2024 - 17:26.

[DeKnyff]

So McLaren was too fast for a one stop, but somehow Leclerc could follow them and complete a one stop.

So the fastest car won today

 

Still, only three points taken from McLaren. No chance to beat them at this rate.

[garoidb]

Still, only three points taken from McLaren. No chance to beat them at this rate.

 

Based on their approach, the McLaren guys are likely to collide with each other in at least one race this season.

[BertoC]

Still, only three points taken from McLaren. No chance to beat them at this rate.

The big question mark is if Ferrari finally fixed their issues and will now start to "unlock the potential" that has been freezed by ghe botched Spain downgrade. If Baku goes like today its game on. Of course Mclaren still has the big Singapore upgrade to come.

[chhatra]

It’s definitely a possibility.

One bad race for McLaren or Ferrari could cost them the WCC.

Mercedes have the potential to spoil things too for either of them.

Hard to see Red Bull winning at all.

[brucewayne]

Hot take- Charles and Carlos in the Mclaren would win both titles.

It’s not a hot take at all at this point.

[PlatenGlass]

Not sure. Seems it might be more of a Frentzen/Kubica situation but with a team rather than driver.

[LolaB0860]

My two cents:

 

Red Bull - Obviously they're melting down, but there's another gigantic 4 week gap coming after Singapore which might have enough time to bring them back in development window. They've turned tables before. However, this is of course more with WDC in mind, with WCC they're screwed with their useless second driver only capable of 8th place finishes, maybe 7th if someone has a problem. So even if Verstappen were to actually return to winning circles for COTA (?), they will be scoring only 4-6 points with the second car per race. Which inevitably should mean second or third in constructors.

 

McLaren - They won't be scoring 1-2 every weekend due to operational and driver errors, and Ferrari and/or Mercedes are still stronger on specific tracks, but it looks pretty safe to say they will be the first in constructors overall.

 

Ferrari - I assume Baku and especially Singapore will be their strongest showing of the year (maybe later Vegas too). After that they might just slip back a bit, and I don't think they can keep to the full pace of McLaren, but I can't see how their combined two car scoring wouldn't enable then to pass RBR for second in the constructors. Again, maybe if Mercedes keeps pumping wins and podiums and steals away points that might make it harder for them to beat Red Bull, but it seems unlikely.

 

So I'll say McLaren-Ferrari-RBR(-Mercedes)

Edited by LolaB0860, 02 September 2024 - 10:11.

[Beri]

Hot take- Charles and Carlos in the Mclaren would win both titles. 

 

No, they still would have the same pitwall calling the wrong shots.

[frosty125]

Ferrari are definitely in the fight I think they will come 2nd ahead of Red Bull they are just 1 good upgrade away from taking the fight to McLaren.

[Spillage]

They're in it but they're outsiders. IMO they have better drivers than McLaren and are better operationally, but their car isn't as good. I think they'll just fall short unless they can find more performance.

[Marklar]

Ferrari has without any doubt the better driver pairing and (I can't believe I'm saying this) is also operationally better than McLaren. However, I'm not particulary certain about their car performance. Even yesterday they were slower than McLaren, and there will be races where they will be slower than Mercedes or Red Bull. But they are definitely in the hunt although the chances are small if all goes normal.

I'm fairly certain it will end with McLaren - Ferrari - Red Bull - relatively clearly actually.

[Hellenic tifosi]

Mathematically, they are in, but realistically, they are out.

[garoidb]

Mathematically, they are in, but realistically, they are out.

 

 

They have qualified 1-3 for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. They are currently only 31 points behind McLaren while Red Bull, the leaders, are struggling. If, a big if, the cars finished in the order of qualification tomorrow then the top three in the WCC would be covered by 25 points with the gap to McLaren down to 15 points. I'll recalculate it tomorrow with the real results but I think they could be stealthy assassins in the constructors championship. 

[Deeq]

They have qualified 1-3 for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. They are currently only 31 points behind McLaren while Red Bull, the leaders, are struggling. If, a big if, the cars finished in the order of qualification tomorrow then the top three in the WCC would be covered by 25 points with the gap to McLaren down to 15 points. I'll recalculate it tomorrow with the real results but I think they could be stealthy assassins in the constructors championship.

Drivers too 😱

[ARTGP]

They will lead it after Singapore.

[Hellenic tifosi]

They have qualified 1-3 for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. They are currently only 31 points behind McLaren while Red Bull, the leaders, are struggling. If, a big if, the cars finished in the order of qualification tomorrow then the top three in the WCC would be covered by 25 points with the gap to McLaren down to 15 points. I'll recalculate it tomorrow with the real results but I think they could be stealthy assassins in the constructors championship.

That's true, but maybe the current run of circuits flatters them a little bit. In any case, the end of the season could become very interesting!

[garoidb]

Drivers too

 

I think Ferrari would need a consistent and meaningful advantage for the WDC to come into play ... but Red Bull and McLaren could easily fumble the constructors without that happening. Neither are operating well at the moment, notwithstanding the usual speed of the McLaren. 

Edited by garoidb, 14 September 2024 - 14:39.

[Deeq]

I think Ferrari would need a consistent and meaningful advantage for the WDC to come into play ... but Red Bull and McLaren could easily fumble the constructors without that happening. Neither are operating well at the moment, notwithstanding the usual speed of the McLaren.

Another way to see it is.. could Leclerc beat Norris in WDC? I firmly believe so.

[Ferrim]

Of course they are. Actually, we are one DNF from Verstappen away of an "Is Leclerc in the WDC fight?" thread, lol.

[RacingFan10]

No. McLaren will get it.

 

Ferrari are just too inconsistent at mid season developing. Expect them to start fading slowly from now to the end of the season. For them to win the WCC, they must start the season in a dominant fashion.

Edited by RacingFan10, 14 September 2024 - 15:56.

[garoidb]

Another way to see it is.. could Leclerc beat Norris in WDC? I firmly believe so.

 

I think (a) Leclerc could beat Norris and (b) Norris could beat Verstappen but © Leclerc can't beat Verstappen. i.e. (a) or (b) could happen but not (a) and (b).

[DeKnyff]

A one-two by Ferrari tomorrow would put them clearly on track for a WCC. Still, Baku usually produces chaotic races, so a win, let alone a one-two, is not a given.

 

Also, Ferrari could suffer in other tracks, like Austin, Interlagos or Abu-Dhabi.

[Deeq]

I think (a) Leclerc could beat Norris and (b) Norris could beat Verstappen but © Leclerc can't beat Verstappen. i.e. (a) or (b) could happen but not (a) and (b).

You have the odds as of now but lets see after 2 more races.
I cant believe I am saying this in september but it seems RBR is dead in the water & Verstappen is a sitting duck right now, situation could change in the coming races but if it does not than the WDC fight will be between McLaren & Ferrari drivers.
This reminds me of Brawn/Button 2009 campaign 🙃, its ironic RBR is the hunted now!

[Wuzak]

No. McLaren will get it.

 

Ferrari are just too inconsistent at mid season developing. Expect them to start fading slowly from now to the end of the season. For them to win the WCC, they must start the season in a dominant fashion.

 

 

They finished last year strongly after having a poor start to the season.

 

They've already had a slump in the middle of the season, and yet they are still close enough to win the WCC.

 

McLaren have had the fastest car for a while now, but they have the same number of wins as Ferrari and only 2 more podiums (15 vs 13, 14 for RBR).

[Ferrari2183]

Yes, Ferrari are in the constructors battle but Leclerc is not in the hunt for the drivers title. In order to achieve that Ferrari would need to have the best car, bullet proof reliability, win 90% of the remaining and rely on McLaren to continue taking points off Verstappen. Or hope for a Verstappen DNF or 2.

Just too many things need to click.

[garoidb]

 

They have qualified 1-3 for the Azerbaijan Grand Prix. They are currently only 31 points behind McLaren while Red Bull, the leaders, are struggling. If, a big if, the cars finished in the order of qualification tomorrow then the top three in the WCC would be covered by 25 points with the gap to McLaren down to 15 points. I'll recalculate it tomorrow with the real results but I think they could be stealthy assassins in the constructors championship. 

 

 

It doesn't look so good today  . McLaren now lead the WCC by 20 points over Red Bull and by over 50 from Ferrari. That crash between Carlos Sainz and Sergio Perez prevented any tightening of the standings.