226 replies to this topic

[Anja]

By popular demand. Everyone's talking how we need this thread but no one wants to start it so here, you're welcome. 

 

 

McLaren - Mercedes

Lando Norris - contracted at least until 2027

Oscar Piastri - contracted at least until 2026

 

Ferrari

Charles Leclerc - contracted at least until 2026

Lewis Hamilton - contracted at least until 2026

 

Red Bull - RBPT Ford

Max Verstappen - contracted until 2028... in theory

Sergio Perez - contracted until 2026... in theory

 

Mercedes

George Russell - contracted until 2025

Andrea Kimi Antonelli - officially contracted until 2025, presumably with team options to extend

Max Verstappen?

 

Aston Martin - Honda

Fernando Alonso - contracted until 2026

Lance Stroll - no comment

Max Verstappen?

 

RB - RBPT Ford

Yuki Tsunoda - contracted until 2025

Daniel Ricciardo - current contract runs out at the end of 2024

Liam Lawson?

Isack Hadjar?

 

Haas - Ferrari

Esteban Ocon - contracted at least until 2026

Oliver Bearman - contracted at least until 2026

 

Alpine - Renault?

Pierre Gasly - contracted at least until 2026

Jack Doohan - contracted until 2025

 

Williams - Mercedes

Alex Albon - contracted at least until 2026

Carlos Sainz - contracted at least until 2026

 

Audi

Nico Hulkenberg - contracted at least until 2026

Valtteri Bottas - current contract runs out at the end of 2024

Zhou Guanyu - current contract runs out at the end of 2024

Gabriel Bortoleto?

Edited by Anja, 07 September 2024 - 19:28.

[Beri]

Max to Aston Martin to follow Newey AND Honda. That has been crossing my mind since 2 weeks.

Sainz to fill his seat.

Colapinto to take his.

[garoidb]

Max to Aston Martin to follow Newey AND Honda. That has been crossing my mind since 2 weeks.

Sainz to fill his seat.

Colapinto to take his.

 

It's a delicate choice for Max between Mercedes and Aston Martin, as the wrong choice could mean a few peak years in the wilderness.

[FLB]

I swear sometimes I think the most the fun thing about this sport is the part where we spend endless hours speculating about who goes where and when...   

[garoidb]

I swear sometimes I think the most the fun thing about this sport is the part where we spend endless hours speculating about who goes where and when...   

 

It's a very long running soap opera ...

[HistoryFan]

I think it will be a boring silly-season as the most parts are fallen for 2025 AND 2026.

[ARTGP]

I'd bet one of your houses that Verstappen leaves Red Bull at the end of 2025. 

Edited by ARTGP, 07 September 2024 - 23:38.

[DJH63]

I'd bet one of your houses that Verstappen leaves Red Bull at the end of 2025. 

He will be at Merc alongside Antonelli.

 

Don’t be surprised if Russell replace him at RB.

[IrvTheSwerve]

If Max does go to Merc, I could see Russell fitting in nicely at AM, depending on the Stroll situation.

[FirstnameLastname]

Russell and Norris at Redbull

[FirstnameLastname]

Or Norris at Redbull and Russell at McLaren as Piastris number 2

[Benchulo]

My current guess:

Red Bull: Norris or Piastri/Albon
McLaren: Norris or Piastri/Russell
Ferrari: Leclerc/Hamilton
Mercedes: Verstappen/Antonelli
Aston Martin: Alonso/Stroll
Alpine: Gasly/Doohan
Williams: Sainz/Tsunoda
Audi: Hulkenberg/Borteloto
Alpha Tauri: Lawson/Lindblad
Haas: Ocon/Bearman

[Radion]

Building a car for the new regs suited to one driver (Max), just for him to leave at the beginning and having the new driver to deal with these characteristics is just awful.

Whoever gets an offer to replace Max at some point, will have to think about this.

[Viryfan]

I would not be surprised to see Max taking a sabbatical to pick the best option for 2027.

After all there would be a seat available in Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin.

Whoever gets it right, would get his vote.

[DJH63]

I would not be surprised to see Max taking a sabbatical to pick the best option for 2027.

After all there would be a seat available in Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin.

Whoever gets it right, would get his vote.

Except Ferrari and AM won’t have the Merc engine so he isn’t going to go there…

 

It’s the paddocks worst kept secret that the Merc deal is done - at least verbally - and while Horner will play hardball with Wolff he won’t stand in the way. 

[SenorSjon]

Antonelli could be parked in F2 for a second season. So Verstappen-Russell in 2025 and Verstappen-Antonelli in 2026.

[Viryfan]

Except Ferrari and AM won’t have the Merc engine so he isn’t going to go there…

It’s the paddocks worst kept secret that the Merc deal is done - at least verbally - and while Horner will play hardball with Wolff he won’t stand in the way.

We don't know where Ferrari stands as per 2026 engines.

[DW46]

I would not be surprised to see Max taking a sabbatical to pick the best option for 2027.

After all there would be a seat available in Ferrari, Mercedes, Aston Martin.

Whoever gets it right, would get his vote.

Wouldn’t that just cost him a years salary when he could achieve the same by doing a last year at Red Bull?

[pacificquay]

Russell and Norris at Redbull

After working for several years through McLaren’s development there’s no way he’d give that up for a team likely on the slide

[OvDrone]

Verstappen to Aston Martin and afterwards he does WEC with them as well.

[garoidb]

Verstappen to Aston Martin and afterwards he does WEC with them as well.

 

That's what Alpine tried to do to Fernando 

[OvDrone]

That's what Alpine tried to do to Fernando 

I'll add Alonso together with Max at Le Mans with Aston 

[Alfisti]

Rbr will be left without a top driver, you wait and see. Maybe an albon type at best.

[garoidb]

Rbr will be left without a top driver, you wait and see. Maybe an albon type at best.

 

Maybe it's worth hanging on to someone like Ricciardo then, to go alongside whoever is the younger putative lead driver (like Lawson or Albon, for example). Are Red Bull soon going to be short of suitable drivers for their two teams?

[DJH63]

Antonelli could be parked in F2 for a second season. So Verstappen-Russell in 2025 and Verstappen-Antonelli in 2026.

I think you’re a week behind the news…

[sterlingfan2000]

I think Redbull will get Russell and Sainz.

[Astandahl]

Getting Max out of his RB contract without exploiting an exit clause is going to be extremely difficult.

This means that RB has to completely tank in performance in 2025 as well.

Edited by Astandahl, 08 September 2024 - 15:19.

[DJH63]

Getting Max out of his RB contract without exploiting an exit clause is going to be extremely difficult.

This means that RB has to completely tank in performance in 2025 as well.

It will be a buyout by Merc. Horner isn’t going to just let Verstappen go and join Wolff but he isn’t going to fight overly hard.

[DW46]

I can only see Aston as a route if Alonso retires. Any doubts about Stroll continuing died with the extension this season for me. I felt Honda might have pressured them to take Yuki.

Mercedes is the more obvious move but it might not be straightforward. If Russell and Antonelli perform strongly is there any need other than to stick it to Horner.

My guess: Red Bull in 25/26 > Aston in place of Alonso for 27 onwards because cosmic forces dictates that teams must hit form only after Alonso leaves. Also he drives a Valkyrie and has aspirations to do Le Mans. Perfect fit no.

[OvDrone]

The ‘team improving immediately after Alonso leaves’ is such a thing that it truly is a cosmic law by now, indeed.

[garoidb]

The ‘team improving immediately after Alonso leaves’ is such a thing that it truly is a cosmic law by now, indeed.

 

If we start from the time he left Renault in 2006 (his first departure barring Minardi), only McLaren in 2008 have won a championship after he left. There are 18 seasons in which it could have happened, and many more team-year combinations (e.g. McLaren 2010 or Ferrari 2016 or Renault 2019 etc), but it just happened once. It seems more correct to say that only teams Fernando has never driven for can win championships, at least based on the 16 seasons since 2008.

[efuloni]

My current guess:

Red Bull: Norris and Russell
McLaren: Piastri and Sainz
Ferrari: Leclerc and Hamilton
Mercedes: Verstappen and Antonelli
Aston Martin: Alonso and Stroll
Alpine: Gasly and Doohan
Williams: Albon and Colapinto
Audi: Hulkenberg and Borteloto
Alpha Tauri: Lawson and Hadjar
Haas: Ocon and Bearman

 

Wild guesses:

 

Bortoleto could end up at McLaren, if Sainz doesnt get back there for any reason. He also could be at Aston, replacing his manager Alonso, if Nando decides to retire. 

 

Verstappen could make a surprise move to Aston, leaving Alonso to retirement.

 

Piastri could be chosen over Norris to go to RedBull.

Edited by efuloni, 08 September 2024 - 16:35.

[pacificquay]

Absolutely mental that people on here think either Piastri or Norris would leave McLaren to go to Red Bull

[Anja]

Absolutely mental that people on here think either Piastri or Norris would leave McLaren to go to Red Bull

 

I think it mostly comes from a prediction that the way things are going, there's gonna be some big intra-team drama between them. Probably not this year as McLaren has to back Norris now but if both are in the championship fight next year, who knows...

Edited by Anja, 08 September 2024 - 18:04.

[Anderis]

If we start from the time he left Renault in 2006 (his first departure barring Minardi), only McLaren in 2008 have won a championship after he left. There are 18 seasons in which it could have happened, and many more team-year combinations (e.g. McLaren 2010 or Ferrari 2016 or Renault 2019 etc), but it just happened once. It seems more correct to say that only teams Fernando has never driven for can win championships, at least based on the 16 seasons since 2008.

Renault got much worse after Alonso left in 2006 and McLaren stayed on a similar level in 2008 after Alonso left in 2007 and then got worse for 2009.

 

Ferrari in 2014 and McLaren in 2018 were in such shambles that everybody could see that they would improve sooner or later.

[ARTGP]

Mercedes is the more obvious move but it might not be straightforward. If Russell and Antonelli perform strongly is there any need other than to stick it to Horner.

 

Mercedes will have an image problem (which becomes a sponsor problem). Russell and Antonelli are young upstarts. Mercedes has fielded a WDC in their lineup since the team's inception. 2025 will be the first season without.  There is a risk that the team becomes anonymous. 

Edited by ARTGP, 08 September 2024 - 18:56.

[SenorSjon]

I think you’re a week behind the news…

I presume there are clauses in the Antonelli contract that if a certain WDC comes available, he will be sidelined for 1 year. Mercedes could need a world champion for sponsors, reputation, etc.

[Anderis]

I presume there are clauses in the Antonelli contract that if a certain WDC comes available, he will be sidelined for 1 year. Mercedes could need a world champion for sponsors, reputation, etc.

If Mercedes still had any serious intentions about bringing Verstappen in for 2025, why didn't they just delay the Antonelli announcement? They'll just look bad if they kick out a driver that they have already announced and this could've been easily prevented by not announcing Antonelli yet.

[KWSN - DSM]

McLaren
Lando Norris
Oscar Piastri

Ferrari
Charles Leclerc
Lewis Hamilton

Red Bull
Max Verstappen
Liam Lawson

Mercedes
George Russell
Kimi Antonelli

Aston Martin
Fernando Alonso
Lance Stroll

RB
Yuki Tsunoda
Isack Hadjar

Haas
Esteban Ocon
Oliver Bearman

Alpine
Pierre Gasly
Jack Doohan

Williams
Alex Albon
Carlos Sainz

Audi
Nico Hulkenberg
Mick Schumacher

[Beri]

Absolutely mental that people on here think either Piastri or Norris would leave McLaren to go to Red Bull

 

With all due respect to the fantastic achievement that McLaren has pulled out of its slums this year; both Ferrari and Mercedes are just picking themselves up from the gutters and have been steadily improving over the past 6 races. Red Bull hasnt got their updates working and has gone back to the drawing board with Austin now eyed as the venue where the updates should arrive that transform Red Bull to a front runner again. I wouldnt be too surprised to see McLaren dropping back during the endig of the season and with that showing the actual order that will prevail over 2025 also. McLaren is punching above their weight right now. Shown by the mistakes made by a team that is still getting to grips with the situation of having a front running car. They will smooth that out eventually. But by then you need to be realistic that the earlier mentioned teams are likely to catch McLaren. There is no way that a factory Mercedes team gets beaten by a customer Mercedes team over the course of multiple seasons. So its all good now and I truly think it is fantastic that they are performing so well, but McLaren will find their true spot on the grid come 2025 and with that also paving the path for both drivers to decide on their faith and trust for McLaren in 2026.

[MirNyet]

Absolutely mental that people on here think either Piastri or Norris would leave McLaren to go to Red Bull

 

If things turn toxic, one will be shown the door. For a driver to be able to stay the team have to want them.  If McLaren keep building top cars (if), they'll be able to pick and choose.

[MirNyet]

 

 

 

With all due respect to the fantastic achievement that McLaren has pulled out of its slums this year; both Ferrari and Mercedes are just picking themselves up from the gutters and have been steadily improving over the past 6 races. Red Bull hasnt got their updates working and has gone back to the drawing board with Austin now eyed as the venue where the updates should arrive that transform Red Bull to a front runner again. I wouldnt be too surprised to see McLaren dropping back during the endig of the season and with that showing the actual order that will prevail over 2025 also. McLaren is punching above their weight right now. Shown by the mistakes made by a team that is still getting to grips with the situation of having a front running car. They will smooth that out eventually. But by then you need to be realistic that the earlier mentioned teams are likely to catch McLaren. There is no way that a factory Mercedes team gets beaten by a customer Mercedes team over the course of multiple seasons. So its all good now and I truly think it is fantastic that they are performing so well, but McLaren will find their true spot on the grid come 2025 and with that also paving the path for both drivers to decide on their faith and trust for McLaren in 2026.

 

 

Other than PU integration, the cost cap will keep Mercedes and Ferrari roughly in line with the other front running teams.  They can't spent their way to success anymore as we've seen over the past couple of seasons.

[Nathan]

Absolutely mental that people on here think either Piastri or Norris would leave McLaren to go to Red Bull

 

Both are going to want to be the lead, one is inevitably going to get favoured.

[DRSwing]

Renault got much worse after Alonso left in 2006 and McLaren stayed on a similar level in 2008 after Alonso left in 2007 and then got worse for 2009.

 

Ferrari in 2014 and McLaren in 2018 were in such shambles that everybody could see that they would improve sooner or later.

We can add Alpine in 2023 too. That Alonso is a team wrecker and teams get much better once he left is simply bs that some like to repeat over and over 

[Gambelli]

The ‘team improving immediately after Alonso leaves’ is such a thing that it truly is a cosmic law by now, indeed.

 

Yes, you'd think drivers already would be queuing up to take Alonso's seat as soon as he moves on know that they'd probably walk straight into a championship winning car!!!

 

 

Edit: A bit of tongue in cheek of course, everyone knows that Alonso has been unlucky with some of his choices with teams, but as it's been pointed out several times above, temas don't just go on and win once he's gone...

Edited by Gambelli, 09 September 2024 - 01:40.

[JL14]

Russell targeting the Alpine seat if he loses out to Kimi and Max? (since McLaren and Williams are filled up already)

 

"It will be great at Mercedes in 2026. There is nothing signed yet for the future, and it is not something I am really thinking about. Mercedes is going to be a great place to be, especially with the engines, but there are more teams with a Mercedes engine. So we shouldn't be too confident just because we think we're going to have a fast engine. McLaren will also have a fast engine and Williams will also have a fast engine. I don't see McLaren as a customer team, because everything is the same. They are their own team with the same engine. But as it stands now, they are doing better than us."

[GhostR]

2026 silly season. At this point, can see it going one of two ways: a) remarkably dull (Verstappen stays at Red Bull and we have a relatively stable line up that only changes based on how well each of the rookies do); b) seismic (Verstappen exits Red Bull and triggers musical seats situation).

 

Hoping for option b) 

[PayasYouRace]

Option c) Verstappen moves to Mercedes but it’s a straight swap with Russell and everything else is still quite boring.

[BRG]

2026 silly season. At this point, can see it going one of two ways: a) remarkably dull (Verstappen stays at Red Bull and we have a relatively stable line up that only changes based on how well each of the rookies do); b) seismic (Verstappen exits Red Bull and triggers musical seats situation).

 

Hoping for option b) 

It will be boring as usual.  There are few things more conservative and risk-averse than a F1 team's driver selection.  

[FLB]

It will be boring as usual.  There are few things more conservative and risk-averse than a F1 team's driver selection.  

I'm not quite sure I'd qualify Hamilton-to-Ferrari (both for Ferrari and for Hamilton) and Antonelli-to-Mercedes as risk-averse decisions.