The standings after Azerbaijan:
Pos Name Tot Latest 1) Costaz 1678 88 2) Brawn BGP 001 1671 71 3) LB 1637 59 4) ANF 1623 96 5) scheivlak 1617 59 6) LolaB8060 1612 59 7) SpaceHorseParty 1589 59 8) Bleu 1587 59 9) Benchulo 1585 59 = KWSN-DSM 1585 59 11) Makarias 1580 59 12) mark f1 1578 59 13) DutchQuicksilver 1574 59 14) GTA 1571 59 15) M2000-5 1552 55 = polesetter1 1552 53 17) Anderis 1531 59 18) sladealonso 1496 59Costaz moves to the lead for the foreseeable future. McLarens, Colapinto and Bearman add up to 42 points missing for a 59 score.
The entries
The Drivers' list
Driver Expect Surprise Beat % % # Bear INF,8 700,0 18 Cola INF,8 400,0 18 Hülk 318,6 125,0 18 Magn 147,9 30,0 14 Pias 130,8 84,3 16 Norr 116,0 79,8 15 Lecl 80,2 64,0 0 Sain 77,7 53,6 1 Hami 72,5 62,1 0 Russ 70,4 50,8 0 Vers 58,8 47,8 0 Pere 53,7 41,9 2 Tsun 52,0 29,2 2 Albo 45,3 21,1 2 Stro 43,9 19,0 1 Alon 40,0 24,1 1 Gasl 23,0 12,1 0 Ocon 15,4 7,6 0 Ricc 12,1 6,5 0Franco Colapinto becomes the third 100% surprise of the season!
EXPLANATIONS:
Expect: Expectation fulfillment. The driver's current points score as a percentage of the average points placed on him (not rounded off to integer points)
Surprise: The driver's points score as a percentage of the maximum points placed on him plus one. When this number is reached, the driver has achieved a 100% surprise, by beating the highest expectations on him for this season.
Beat: How many players' expectations the driver has managed to beat. The maximum amount is the number of entrants for the season; for 2019 this is 23.
Guesses on P1-P5:
Piastri Leclerc Russell Norris Verstappen * Potential 385 * Potential 394 * Potential 310 * Potential 416 M2000-5 600 * Forecast 296 Benchulo 341 polesetter1 265 * Forecast 340 LolaB8060 590 Costaz 248 Bleu 331 ANF 244 Costaz 301 SpaceHorseParty 550 ANF 239 GTA 315 Anderis 213 Brawn BGP 001 263 Makarias 535 * Current 210 * Forecast 309 Bleu 207 ANF 241 Anderis 525 Brawn BGP 001 185 ANF 292 mark f1 200 * Current 241 DutchQuicksilver525 LB 174 sladealonso 290 sladealonso 200 LB 220 GTA 510 scheivlak 174 scheivlak 289 * Forecast 191 Makarias 211 LB 506 Benchulo 172 Brawn BGP 001 283 KWSN-DSM 190 LolaB8060 210 sladealonso 502 LolaB8060 170 LB 279 SpaceHorseParty 190 Benchulo 209 mark f1 494 polesetter1 163 Anderis 274 Benchulo 183 GTA 205 scheivlak 466 SpaceHorseParty 160 mark f1 270 DutchQuicksilver183 DutchQuicksilver201 * Potential 462 KWSN-DSM 150 Costaz 265 LB 182 scheivlak 200 ANF 458 mark f1 150 KWSN-DSM 250 scheivlak 182 Bleu 195 Costaz 454 Bleu 148 DutchQuicksilver246 M2000-5 180 polesetter1 191 KWSN-DSM 450 DutchQuicksilver138 Makarias 246 Makarias 179 mark f1 190 Brawn BGP 001 449 M2000-5 138 polesetter1 245 LolaB8060 172 SpaceHorseParty 190 polesetter1 427 Makarias 136 SpaceHorseParty 243 Brawn BGP 001 167 M2000-5 188 Bleu 415 GTA 131 M2000-5 232 GTA 158 KWSN-DSM 185 * Forecast 405 Anderis 115 LolaB8060 225 Costaz 156 Anderis 180 Benchulo 336 sladealonso 100 * Current 219 * Current 135 sladealonso 160 * Current 287This is the "usual suspects" section.
Guesses on P6-P10:
Alonso Albon Sargeant Hamilton Magnussen Benchulo 236 * Potential 187 * Potential 175 * Potential 329 * Potential 181 * Potential 232 ANF 56 SpaceHorseParty 15 polesetter1 247 KWSN-DSM 19 Makarias 185 SpaceHorseParty 45 Benchulo 9 ANF 243 * Forecast 8 Anderis 175 Anderis 40 Costaz 6 SpaceHorseParty 240 Anderis 6 Bleu 170 Makarias 39 KWSN-DSM 5 mark f1 230 LB 6 sladealonso 170 GTA 30 mark f1 5 M2000-5 222 scheivlak 6 DutchQuicksilver156 KWSN-DSM 30 Anderis 4 Costaz 221 * Current 6 Brawn BGP 001 153 LB 30 Brawn BGP 001 4 * Forecast 217 Benchulo 5 KWSN-DSM 150 scheivlak 30 sladealonso 4 Bleu 215 Bleu 5 SpaceHorseParty 150 sladealonso 30 DutchQuicksilver 3 sladealonso 215 Brawn BGP 001 5 LB 142 LolaB8060 25 GTA 3 Anderis 213 mark f1 5 scheivlak 142 mark f1 25 Bleu 2 DutchQuicksilver212 SpaceHorseParty 5 GTA 135 Benchulo 21 LB 2 Makarias 210 ANF 3 polesetter1 132 DutchQuicksilver 21 Makarias 2 GTA 207 Costaz 2 M2000-5 123 Bleu 18 scheivlak 2 Benchulo 200 LolaB8060 2 LolaB8060 105 * Forecast 17 ANF 1 Brawn BGP 001 200 DutchQuicksilver 1 mark f1 100 Brawn BGP 001 15 LolaB8060 1 KWSN-DSM 200 GTA 1 ANF 95 Costaz 12 M2000-5 1 LolaB8060 188 Makarias 1 * Forecast 80 * Current 12 polesetter1 1 LB 180 sladealonso 1 * Current 57 M2000-5 8 * Current 0 scheivlak 180 M2000-5 0 Costaz 49 polesetter1 2 * Forecast 0 * Current 154 polesetter1 0Colapinto and Bearman have no pints guesses at all, so here they're replaced by the guys they've replaced. Poetic justice!
The PTPC forecast
Name Forecast +/- Costaz 2114,9 -24,1 Brawn BGP 001 2099,6 -12,4 Bleu 2088,0 -7,0 LB 2043,5 -10,5 scheivlak 2043,5 -10,5 GTA 2034,1 -19,9 mark f1 2014,8 -10,7 ANF 2007,5 1,0 polesetter1 1979,0 -33,0 Anderis 1978,4 -0,1 KWSN-DSM 1974,9 -3,1 Makarias 1974,5 -12,5 SpaceHorseParty 1973,6 -10,9 DutchQuicksilver 1967,8 -7,7 sladealonso 1964,1 -1,9 LolaB8060 1959,5 -12,5 Benchulo 1931,4 19,9 M2000-5 1924,9 -25,1Points being handed out to random replacement hobos is bad for the forecasts. Costaz loses some ground
